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arby58

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Everything posted by arby58

  1. arby58
    I always find it hard to comment on these lists until you see the whole 20. Thinking about the last 5, I assume it is some combination of Jenkins, Lewis, Lopez, Ryan, Ober, and Buxton - except that is 6. If one of those 6 is left off (I assume either Ober or Buxton), it's going to be hard for me to accept that, say, Julien is more valuable than either of those two as an asset.
  2. arby58
    It's not whether he would consider a trade - as I said elsewhere in the post, it's whether they can, as a result, get full value.
  3. arby58
    A 0.3 WAR over three years is practically the definition of a replacement player. Besides the 5.31 ERA in 2023, he also had a 1.465 WHIP. That's not a pitcher we need on the 40 man either. We traded a bag of balls for another bag of balls.
  4. arby58
    Gallo, for all his faults, was second on the team in HRs, had an OPS+ of 100, and a WAR of 0.5. Hard to call that the worst signing ever. Margot was much worse in about the same number of at bats, a -0.9 WAR, and an OPS of 76. Not. Even. Close.
  5. arby58
    Even in just 102 games last year, Buxton had a WAR of 3.6. The Twins could only hope to have more 'problems' who can put up that WAR in 102 games.
  6. arby58
    Emma has an injury record that nearly rivals Buxton.
  7. arby58
    What makes Moran an 'actual RP?' He's not on the 40 man roster, he missed all last year with TJ surgery, and the year before he was -0.4 WAR and a 5.31 ERA. If the Twins had traded for a pitcher with those stats, the comments would be about picking up a stiff.
  8. arby58
    OK, but the Twins also saved at least $10-15 million a year. Given the Twins budget, inconsistent and a spare $10-15 million is better than inconsistent without budget.
  9. arby58
    Heart and head were often at odds, which is a lot of what made him so inconsistent.
  10. arby58
    Baseball Prospectus has put out its 2025 PECOTA projections. They project Kepler to be 1.2 wins above a replacement player. They project Wallner at 1.7, and Larnach at 2.1.
  11. arby58
    Errors for an outfielder is not the primary stat to judge their defensive value. Baseball prospectus calculates Deserved Runs Prevented, which takes into consideration range, errors, etc. Kepler was 3.2 last year, and Wallner was -0.1, meaning over the course of the season, Kepler saved a little over 3 'deserved' runs more than Wallner. Now let's talk offense . . .
  12. arby58
    Kepler had 368 AB, and Wallner 220, so your cumulative stats mean little. Key non-cumulative stats favor Wallner - OPS .894 to .682, and OPS+ 149 to 91. Even a key cumulative stat (WAR) is CLEARLY better for Wallner - 2.2 to Kepler's 1.0. It's absurd to suggest that in 2024 'little things' Kepler was a better offensive player than (bigger things) Wallner.
  13. arby58
    Kepler was a right fielder, and I think Wallner is adequate for that. As for Rosario, he was maddingly inconsistent. Two of his last three years he's had negative WAR, but he also had a couple of great years for the Twins. Since then, though, other than one astonishing late-season/post-season with Atlanta, he's been average at best, so the Twins probably let him loose at the right time. He's 10 years in MLB with a 10.8 cumulative WAR, so he's never been a player you would build a team around.
  14. arby58
    'Live up to (Kepler) expectations?' His OPS+ last year was 91. Larnach and Wallner were 116 and 149. For his career, Kepler is just about average as a hitter - OPS+ of 101. Larnach is 102 and Wallner 139. I'd say they'd have to live DOWN to Kepler's expectations. If all you have on Kepler is he's better defensively: I've never heard a team constructed around great defense in the corners. C, SS, CF, sure, but RF, if they're great defensively it's gravy, but it's not the primary concern.
  15. arby58
    Kepler had 368 ABs last year to 'accumulate' a WAR of 1.0; in what should be a power position, he had 8 HRs. Wallner, in 220 at bats, had a WAR of 2.2 and hit 13 HRs. Wallner can improve his defense - it's pretty clear Kepler can no longer improve his offense.
  16. arby58
    He played on a winning team in 2023, and the epic collapse at the end of last year doesn't erase that. Did the players that signed with the Royals (or Tigers) last year do it because they wanted to play on a losing team?
  17. arby58
    I believe it highly unlikely that any from this group pitches for the Twins in 2025.
  18. arby58
    That would be an interesting tree, given that the Twins also got Joe Nathan and (less importantly) Boof Bonser. I'm sure the WAR from that one worked out pretty well for the Twins.
  19. arby58
    Nearly impossible to trade Correa because of his no-trade contract. His agent says he likes it here. Because of that leverage, I doubt they could get full value for him, as the other team would likely have to 'sweeten the pot' contract-wise to get Correa to agree to lift the no-trade clause.
  20. arby58
    Don't blame it all on the manager - he's trying to win ballgames and 'in the moment.' The bullpen was a mess the second half of the year, with few alternatives due to injuries to expected high leverage pitchers (particularly Stewart and Topa).
  21. arby58
    Yes, for the Phillies. Signed for 1 year, $10 million. That's not a lot, which suggests MLB thinks of him as a marginal starter not worth more than a 1 year contract.
  22. arby58
    Lewis has the talent, but his injury history makes Buxton look like Cal Ripken Jr. You know the definition of insanity: doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. I expect Lewis to get hurt a couple times a year (preferably not on opening day) and play around half the games in a season.
  23. arby58
    Excellent points. It's too early to judge that trade. SWR is 24 and Berrios 30. Regardless, last year SWR had a 2.0 WAR, and Berrios was 2.2 - hardly anything to differentiate the two. There is also a major difference in salary, and if the Twins had re-signed Berrios they probably don't have Lopez - and Lopez' WAR the last 2 years combined is 5.8, while Berrios is 4.6. Finally, SWR wasn't even the trade centerpiece for the Twins. While I'm not a big Martin fan, he may still become a serviceable MLB player.
  24. arby58
    Of course, it depends on what you get in return. I tend to agree with the recently written comment that the only 'untouchables' are Correa and Buxton (because of no-trade contracts), Lewis, and Jenkins. Everything else is negotiable.
  25. arby58
    AND injury prone. What's not to like? 😉
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