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arby58

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Everything posted by arby58

  1. arby58
    I don't get the love for Martin - what makes it 'probably not close?' He has 30 ABs (10th most) so far this spring, and a .581 OPS. Gasper has 29 ABs and an .881 OPS. Last year, Martin was clearly a negative - a WAR OF -1.0.
  2. arby58
    We already have two CFers. We don't need a third.
  3. arby58
    More of what I find to be bizarre - a commonly used stat is meaningless because you couldn't stomach the Ks. Meanwhile, what about OPS and OPS+ - they're worthless too, I guess. We'll just rely on the Bodie stomach line from now on.
  4. arby58
    Carlos Santana isn't a perfect comparison, as his decline could be considered age-related, but putting up a 2.5 WAR last year was a pretty exceptional bounce back - maybe the Twins saw something there? Keeping in mind that France's OPS+ was still above 100 in 2023, it is not outside the realm of possibility that 2024 was an injury-related anomaly.
  5. arby58
    I know Joey Gallo was everybody's favorite whipping boy in 2023, but some of the criticism of the front office for hanging with him strikes me as unfair. First, he was their most impactful hitter early in the season - he had an OPS over 1.000 for the first month of the season. He still was generally over .800 through the middle of June, and was over .800 as late as the beginning of July. He was in the .700s through the rest of the year. That doesn't sound like a player you 'quick hook.' His OPS+ for the year was 100 (i.e., league average), and his WAR for the year was 0.5 - above that of a replacement player. Yes, he struck out a lot, but he also led the Twins in HRs. I'm not saying he was great, or even good, but he was also not Margot.
  6. arby58
    It's pretty rare that a hitter, in his prime, would go from two seasons where he averaged around 630 plate appearances, a WAR of 3.8, and an OPS+ of over 126 and be entirely washed up two years later (unless injury-related). Health may well have been the primary issue last year. The Twins took a good chance, and it may well pay off.
  7. arby58
    Festa's big league performance (which wasn't really all that great) isn't the point, it was comparing minor league WHIP at the two levels. A+ comparison is far more than 40 innings, right? As for 'what I want' - if he really is a 'steal' ala that pitcher who hadn't pitched above A ball and the Twins stashed for basically two years, sure. Some people around here seem to think Tonkin, with a career 0.0 WAR is worthwhile because he can pitch multiple low leverage innings (which generally suggests the Twins are either well ahead or behind). If that's the case, I'd rather have this kid in that role than that old guy.
  8. arby58
    That is because you know how he ended up. Maybe look at his stats before the Twins rule 5'd him. The two years before the Twins selected him his numbers were pretty pedestrian. 1998, A- and A, it was ERA of 4.73 over 93 innings pitched, with 94 Ks and a 1.275 WHIP. In 1999, over A it was 4.66 ERA, 160 innings pitched, 150 Ks, and 1.353 WHIP. Those aren't super great numbers, but they were Johan's numbers.
  9. arby58
    In 2023, I almost felt sorry for the batters he faced - so many looked completely overmatched.
  10. arby58
    Festa's A+ WHIP was 1.192; his AA WHIP was 1.363. Castellano's A+ WHIP was 1.232; his AA WHIP was 0.992.
  11. arby58
    The Twins knew his minor league history when they selected him. He was the first Rule 5 draft pick they'd made since 2019 - I think your dismissal of him is too cavalier. Again, look at his MiLB WHIP compared to David Festa.
  12. arby58
    Yeah, and Twins fans exhibit incredible amounts of patience waiting for the high school pitchers to develop.
  13. arby58
    Given the fact the Twins gave 9 MLB starts to Zebby Matthews after just 9 AA and 4 AAA starts, I'm not so sure. Yes, he walks a lot of batters, but he also strikes out a lot. In his 4 MiLB seasons, his WHIP is a not unreasonable 1.214. By contrast, David Festa's over 4 seasons of MiLB is 1.247.
  14. arby58
    I'd say that is the optimistic scenario. The Phillies would have all the leverage, and given that he was their MiLB pitcher of the year last year, I don't think 'cash considerations' would be enough - it would have to be a reasonable prospect,
  15. arby58
    Well, starting pitching ERA is what we should use to judge a starting pitcher. Besides, it was 4.03 as recently as 2022.
  16. arby58
    I'm finding different numbers at Baseball Reference. His splits as a starting pitcher listed there: 2019 - 3.33 2020 - 4.73 2021 - 5.08 2022 - 4.03 2023 - only appeared as a relief pitcher 2024 - 4.99 Career as a starting pitcher: 4.36
  17. arby58
    Yeah, under the radar. Jeferson was an international signing, he'll be 26 in May. Interesting thing is while primarily an outfielder, he has been a catcher for between 20 and 34 games every year until last year, when he only caught in 5 games. Last year, over AA-AAA he had an .819 WAR and was better at AAA than AA.
  18. arby58
    I hadn't thought about that possible use for him. He looks to have a much livelier bat than either of them.
  19. arby58
    You're comparing apples and oranges.
  20. arby58
    I suppose that is the glass half empty impression. I'll go the other way - Ryan and Stewart back on track means none of the Twins' high leverage starting or bullpen arms is dealing with health issues. Topa and Tonkin are/were probably 7-8 in the bullpen pecking order (behind Duran-Jax-Sands-Coulombe-Stewart-Alcala), and, quite frankly, for the long run the Twins are probably better off with Varland and Castellano anyway. It's a shame about Canterino, but he wasn't expected to make the 26 man roster.
  21. arby58
    Zebby was rushed to the Twins last season because they really didn't have any other choice, but I'd put up a bit of a caution flag - while accepting that he has pitched well in his three appearances in spring training (because...it's spring training). Last year he started in A+ where he was actually almost a year older than average for the league, and he performed well (4 starts, 22 2/3 innings pitched, 1.59 ERA and 0.750 WHIP). He was promoted to AA, where he was slightly younger than the average player (by 0.3 years), and performed nearly as well. The Twins then aggressively advanced him to AAA, where he was 3 years younger than average, and his starts didn't go nearly as well (4 starts, 19 innings, 5.68 ERA and 1.316 WHIP). Still, that earned him his ticket to 'the Big Show' and the results weren't impressive. 9 starts, 37.2 innings, 1-4 record, 6.69 ERA and 1.646 WHIP. In his last four starts he pitched 3 1/3, 4 2/3, 4 2/3, and 3 innings. It may be he was running out of gas - between the minors and the Twins, he had 134 2/3 innings pitched. It's great that his fastball MPH is up, but the results from last year suggest he needs more starts at AAA before one can be confident he is ready for the MLB games that count season.
  22. arby58
    The hyperbole related to SWR is completely unfair. Last year, in 28 starts, he was 'knocked out in the first 3 innings' exactly one time, and that was his last start of the season. Before September, these were the numbers of innings pitched in the games he started for the Twins: 6, 5, 3.2, 6, 4.1, 5.1, 4.2, 5, 4.1, 6.1, 4, 6, 5.1, 5.2, 6, 4.1, 6, 3.1, 4, 7, 5, 5, 4.2. Further, his WHIP last year was 1.294; the MLB average for starting pitchers was 1.270 - hardly something that would 'lead the league in WHIP.'
  23. arby58
    Looking at their stats from last year, it's hard to reach the conclusion that Tonkin will 'likely be miles better' than Scott Blewett. Granted, Blewett only threw 20 1/3 innings, but 1.77 ERA and 1.230 WHIP that turned into a WAR of 0.8 isn't bad. Tonkin, between his appearances for 3 MLB teams, was -0.1 WAR, 3.63 ERA and a WHIP OF 1.261. Granted, he did it over 79 1/3 innings, but I'm missing the 'miles better' statistics.
  24. arby58
    SWR proved it last year and put up a 2.0 WAR. His ERA was well under 4.00 until a series of 5 bad starts in September to end his year. Festa showed flashes, but he still ended up with an ERA close to 5.00 and a WAR of 0.4. He also had a series of short starts at the end of last year - and combined between AAA and MLB threw 124 2/3 innings, while SWR combined threw 147. I'd suggest SWR is more tested and more likely to be able to stretch out and get to something approaching Ober's 178 2/3 innings pitched from last year.
  25. arby58
    I don't know what more he needs to prove. It's not like he only did it for a month last year - 62 appearances and 71 1/3 innings pitched with 85Ks and a WHIP under 1.000 - those are not 'hold your breath' numbers.
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