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arby58

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Everything posted by arby58

  1. arby58
    Why didn't you tell us of your supreme athletic prowess? Changes everything. Here is the scouting report on Lewis after his first season, when he was the Twins top prospect: "Lewis’ plus speed makes him a basestealing threat and his athleticism helps him on the defensive side. He showed he can move seamlessly around the field in the AFL, seeing time at second, third and center field in addition to shortstop. That’s the spot he played exclusively at the alternate camp, working with infield coordinator Billy Boyer and has every chance to stick there long-term, though the Twins know they can plug his bat into any number of positions when it’s deemed ready." Of course, your experience is so much more relevant than scouts who do it for a living. https://www.mlb.com/milb/prospects/2021/twins/royce-lewis-668904
  2. arby58
    While I doubt they will get enough in return to trade Ryan, I also don't necessarily think Buxton is 'towards the end of [his] prime.' The bat speed is still there, the speed is still there, the power is arriving - I happen to think he is just coming into his prime.
  3. arby58
    I don't get too excited about prospects until at least AA - a lot can happen, and the winnowing process from A to AA means generally better, more consistent competition. So, I'll hold off on Ferrer and DeBarge. Raya, though, is starting to get me excited. Iowa is a good hitting club - they have four players in their lineup with an OPS of .900 or more, and he held them to 1 run on 3 hits over 6 innings, with 7 Ks and 1 walk. Four straight starts with an ERA well under 2.00 is impressive. If he's figured things out, his collective ERA for the year is not that important.
  4. arby58
    If you don't understand that two major knee injuries will diminish your defensive ability, I can't help (or reason with) you.
  5. arby58
    Did you miss the fact that he had two major knee injuries? Tony Oliva was a good outfielder (won a Gold Glove) until his knees gave out.
  6. arby58
    Lewis was drafted as a shortstop, as most high high school position picks are. Shortstops and defense are synonymous. I guess I thought you would know that.
  7. arby58
    Lewis was considered a strong athlete with speed. Injuries messed that up, but that was not because of perceived 'Twins preferences.'
  8. arby58
    In the winter, the Twins appeared to have a surplus of starting pitching. If you take Jax out of high leverage situations, my guess is you would lose as many games as you might win with him starting. Besides, when you've spent years working in one-inning situations, it isn't as easy as flipping a switch to move to 5 or 6 innings of work. There are far fewer examples of relievers successfully going back to being starters than starters becoming relievers - and Duran, Varland (and Jax) are prime examples.
  9. arby58
    When you pitch an inning at a time, you can't just 'step in' and pick up 4, let alone 5 or 6 innings.
  10. arby58
    The team that is loaded at the top of the Top 100 prospects (using MLB.com) is, in fact, Boston. They have Roman Anthony ranked #1 and Marcelo Mayer #6 as well as numbers 40 and 100. I don't think Ryan for Duran is a trade the Twins would make. According to the Trade Simulator, Ryan has a surplus value of 70.1 vs. Duran's 40.8. Ryan is also working on a WAR this year of 3.8 versus Duran's 2.2. Starting pitching is at a premium - there would have to be more to this trade. The player who aligns better, trade simulator-wise is outfielder Roman Anthony, the #1 prospect. His surplus according to the Trade Simulator is 70.7. He is now up with the Red Sox and actually has a slightly better OPS than Duran. I doubt you could get both Anthony and #6 prospect Mayer, as Mayer has a projected trade surplus of 54.8. Maybe they'd throw in Arias (a 2B/SS ranked #40 at the A+ level) who has a trade surplus of 22.1, given he is at least a couple years away. The problem here is Anthony is another left handed batter, not exactly the Twins need at the moment. A team that might match up, prospect-wise, is Philadelphia. Looking at what the Twins might need, they could offer back the #10 prospect, Andrew Painter, a RHP at AAA. He fits the Twins profile of a tall (6'7") pitcher ala Bailey Ober, and has a projected trade surplus of 49.4. They also have the #22 prospect, SS (sort of a need position for the Twins) Aidan Miller, who is at AA and has a projected surplus of 33.7. If they would give up both of those, it might be worthwhile. They also have a catcher ranked #63 in A-ball with a simulator value of 17.9. Maybe the Twins throw in somebody like Brandon Winokur (surplus value of 8.2) to help balance it out.
  11. arby58
    I'd say that Escobar for Duran also worked out well for the Twins, and, according to WAR, so did Lopez (7.4 the last three years) for Arraez (6.1).
  12. arby58
    I agree that Keirsey can't hit, but Wallner is not hopeless. He has been in a slump, but even so he has a higher OPS than France, as well as Jeffers, Lee, Correa, Lewis, Julien, etc. He also hits the ball harder than any player on the team. I'd suggest he is a Rooker waiting to happen.
  13. arby58
    That's better than collectively, with Vazquez, right? Why would you group he and Vazquez unless you were deflating his worth?
  14. arby58
    Maybe take Vazquez out and resort? He is the ultimate anchor offensively.
  15. arby58
    Actually, in looking it up, it was 'pitching, fundamentals, and three run home runs.'
  16. arby58
    Yeah, it is a long season, and players go through ups and downs. Last year, many were down on Santana when he had a slow start, but later in the year, he was arguably their best hitter. Kepler was like that in 2023 as well, and, same thing, came on strong in the second half. One thing that is clear about Wallner - he hits the ball HARD. The five hardest hit balls by a Twin in 2024 were all by Wallner - with two over 116 MPH, which is smoking.
  17. arby58
    Lee's bunt won the game, but it was not the most impactful hit of the game. If the Twins played 'small ball' in the sixth and Clemens maybe scratches out one more run, they wouldn't have been in position to win it in the ninth with a squeeze play. Yes, there is a time and place for just settling for one run (the bottom of the ninth inning in a tie game is the most obvious situation of all), I just don't believe they should fall in love with that strategy earlier in the game.
  18. arby58
    Earl Weaver was one of the all time great managers. His philosophy of winning baseball was "“pitching and three-run homers. Pitching keeps you in the games. Home runs win the game.” The ninth inning squeeze play was fine - but with Buxton on third with no outs, my guess is they could win the game needing only one run in multiple ways. The real impact play of the game was Clemens' three run home run. As Weaver also said, "your most precious possessions on offense are your 27 outs, and if you play for one run, that’s all you’ll get.” An interesting fact from a SABRE member: Weaver was 213-46 (.822) in games where the Orioles hit a three run home run and 1,267-1,014 (.555) when they did not.
  19. arby58
    Yeah, not exactly small ball there. Clemens, for 10 HRs, has been impactful with almost all of them.
  20. arby58
    Clemens' three run HR was small ball?
  21. arby58
    Sorry, meant to say Jeffers.
  22. arby58
    I meant to say Jeffers, not Wallner. The other catching options are worse - he has comparative advantage. BTW, Baseball Reference has him at 0.5 WAR for the year; Vazquez is 0.1 , is six years older and a free agent after this year. Who else do you think will get you positive WAR?
  23. arby58
    The Baseball Trade Values Trade Simulator says that Duran has a surplus value of 19.1 and Rushing 43.1. According to that simulator, that trade isn't happening
  24. arby58
    Somebody has to catch for the Twins - Wallner is as close to untouchable trade-wise as any tradeable position player.
  25. arby58
    Buxton has a full no-trade contract and, from everything I've read, is happy here and wants to be one of those rare one-franchise career players. He and Correa aren't going anywhere. I agree that Ryan is their most prized MLB tradeable asset at the moment - IF the Twins decide to shut it down, play-offs-wise, it would be interesting to see what kind of haul they could get for him.
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