arby58

Snipping a lot of interesting discussion - thank you for that. I like to focus on numbers, because it is what I best understand. 5% is 'nothing to sneeze at' until we look at what it would mean to 'move the dial' to the average for the Twins as a team against LHP. In 2023, it would have been 20 additional ABs. I highly doubt that Wallner, with 20 additional ABs against LHP that year would have transformed himself into a better hitter against them. That would be the equivalent of about 3 at bats a month. Besides, only a true 'everyday player' gets the same share of at bats against their same sided pitcher, so it's probably more like 10. Obviously, you would slightly more than double that number for an 11 percent difference, but, again, is it really 20 at bats that are killing his development?

You focus entirely on the Kepler example and ignore Wallner getting about as many percentage at bats against left handed pitchers as the Twins as a team the last two years. Regardless of his performance against LHP in the minor leagues, he hasn't delivered against them in MLB. 2023 the split was .970 OPS versus RHP and .481 LHP. 2024 .953 versus .611. The Twins are trying to win baseball games every day, and having a starting corner outfielder with a .481 OPS isn't going to cut it. These guys have opportunities beyond just games - there are pitching machines and batting practice to work on this stuff where your OPS isn't going to hurt the team.

This is an exaggeration. The left handed hitters don't face as many left handed pitchers partially because there aren't as many of them. We'll use Wallner as an example, because you cite his minor league prowess against lefties. In 2023, the Twins faced right-handed pitchers in 4,780 at bats, and lefties in 1,439, which is 23% of the time. Wallner had 208 plate appearances against righthanded pitchers and 46 against left handed pitchers - 18% of his at bats. It was similar in 2024, where the Twins faced right handed pitchers in 4,426 place appearances and 1,697 against lefties, which is 28%. Wallner had 217 plate appearances against right handed pitchers and 44 against lefties - 17%. Sure, it's not exactly the same percentage as Twins plate appearances against left handers, but would that really be a great argument? It's pretty well accepted that most players perform better at the plate against opposite handed pitchers. That said, it's not nothing, and those who complain it is only 40-some appearances are overlooking or choosing not to look at the possible plate appearances he could have had, which isn't that many more. My bet is that if any of the left handed hitters start tearing it up against LHP, they'll see more plate appearances against them. Let's use Max Kepler as an example. In 2022, he actually had a higher OPS against LHP - .677 to .662 versus RHP. Perhaps not suprisingly, he faced lefties in 27% of his plate appearances (quite a bit higher than Wallner has). In 2022, the Twins faced LHP in 28% of their plate appearances. Coincidence? Maybe - or maybe the analytics suggested starting him/keeping him in the lineup against LHP.

I think some of this is a testament to what can happen when a player largely skips over one of the minor league steps - and also a cautionary tale for those who believe you should just 'play the young guys' and stop hiring based at least somewhat on experience. Julien was 1.3 years younger than the average player at AA, and the Twins game him a full season there, with 508 plate attempts. However, he had an excellent spring the following year, and while the Twins started him at AAA, where he was 2.3 years younger than the average player, he only had 170 plate appearances before being called up to the majors. He had an excellent year, and I guess that proves he didn't need that AAA stop, right? Maybe not. For all the issues of changing his swing, that is stuff that might have occurred at AAA - for sure, he would have had the chance to bat against more left-handed pitching. And, sure enough, he did end up getting pretty much a full year (over two years) at AAA last year. Maybe sometimes patience is a good thing and not just 'the Twins being the Twins' with young players.

2023 isn't 'cherry picking' - it was all his appearances in relief that year. I would suggest calling his entire relief pitching record 'homely' based solely on 2024 is cherry picking. Look at in its entirety and it is not. Even in 2024, there were two really bad outings, where he gave up 14 earned runs over 3 1/3 innings. Other than that, it as 5 earned runs over 13 innings, not terrible. He also had 20 strikeouts over 15 1/3 innings. Apparently some of his pitches have swing and miss ability.

He was very effective in 9 relief appearances in 2023. In 12 innings in 7 regular season appearances down the stretch, he gave up 2 earned runs (both in the same outing) and struck out 17. Then he had two appearances in the play-offs working 1/3 of an inning in each, no earned runs and another K. So 12 2/3 innings, 2 runs, 18 Ks. That sounds mighty un-homely to me.

Yep, just read it on Twins Daily...

2022 looks a lot better: #4 Joe Ryan #5 Jordan Balazovic #6 Jhoan Duran #7 Josh Winder #8 SWR #9 Matt Canterino #14 Ronny Henriquez #15 Louis Varland #17 Cole Sands

I too hope the Twins have figured that out about Varland. Maybe they needed to hold out hope he could be a starter when he was 'the best available' option at AAA, but that is no longer the case.

Only so many starting slots to go around. He can get up to AAA when a starting slot opens up for the Twins.

As it relates to aspects of the article: with all of the young promising starters, it would be minor league baseball malpractice to give Dobnak starts - let him pitch long relief or mop-up. If you decode Baldelli's remarks, Varland has about a 95 percent chance of landing in the bullpen. I sure hope it is taking Tonkin's place. If Canterino is healthy and throws well in spring training, he very well could end up in the AAA rotation, and if that is the case, Lewis ending up back at AA seems logical, as he only started 13 games at Wichita last year (and the 1 start at AAA isn't really a consideration for where he starts).

Now a part of the Diamondbacks organization, MLB.com reports that Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo revealed today that Josh Winder will require Tommy John surgery. Tough break for Josh - he is quickly becoming a player with a great future behind him.

I did look at the game logs What you said was "The average MLB starter pitches 6+ innings most of the time, and the very worst do it 25% of the time." So, I did look at the logs, and have done the analysis for the first assertion, and took the starter who had the third-most innings pitched per start - which, in a five man rotation, would be the definition of 'average MLB starter.' On re-reading your post, I think the problem is terminology. I take "6+ innings" to mean 'over 6 innings.' I think what you more accurately should say is 'at least 6 innings.' When I looked at the first 12 teams, ordered by their first starter with the most innings pitched per start, it was about half 6 innings or more and half less than six innings. However, when I added the rest of the league, it is not surprising that it shifted dramatically, as these are teams without 'innings eaters' at the top, so by the time you get to their average pitcher, they are less than innings eaters. Mariners: George Kirby. 6 innings or more: 27 starts. Under 6, 7 starts. This is by far the best stat to support the initial claim. Royals: Michael Wacha. Six innings or more: 17. Under 6: 13. Astros: Hunter Brown. Six innings or more: 20. Under 6: 11. Phillies: Christopher Sanchez. Six innings or more: 17. Under 6: 14. So far so good - it's about to change. Detroit: Casey Mize. Six innings or more: 6. Under 6: 16 Giants: Kyle Harrison. Six innings or more: 9. Under 6: 15 Braves: Spencer Schnellenbach. Six innings or more: 13. Under 6: 8. Blue Jays: Chris Bassitt. Six innings or more: 14. Under 6: 17. Orioles: Dean Kremer. Six innings or more: 10. Under 6: 14. Red Sox: Brayer Bello. Six innings or more: 11. Under 6: 19. Cubs: Justin Steele. >Six innings or more: 12. Under 6: 12. Our first tied result. The total is now 5-5-1 for the assertion. Cardinals: Andre Pillante. Six innings or more: 8. Under 6: 21. Twins: Bailey Ober. Six innings or more: 20. Under 6: 11. Ober is actually one of the better performers. So much for the Baldelli 'quick hook.' It is now 6-6-1 for the assertion, but it's about to get ugly. Mets: Shawn Maneaea. Six innings or more: 16. Under 6: 16. Another tie. 6-6-2. Pirates: Jared Jones. Six innings or more: 11. Under 6: 11. Yet another tie. 6-6-3. Now comes the 'assertion losing streak' with teams that have average pitchers well below the 'Bean line.' Angels: Griffin Canning. Six innings or more: 12. Under 6: 20. Reds: Nick Lodolo. Six innings or more: 10. Under 6: 11. Diamondbacks: Jordan Montgomery. Six innings or more: 7. Under 6: 18. Yankees: Luis Gil. Six innings or more: 10. Under 6: 19 Nationals: MacKenzie Gore. Six innings or more: 11. Under 6: 21. Padres: Matt Waldron. Six innings or more: 12. Under 6: 15. Guardians: Logan Allen. Six innings or more: 5. Under 6: 15. A's: Joey Estes. Six innings or more: 9. Under 6: 16. Rays: Ryan Pepiot. Six innings or more: 10. Under 6: 16. White Sox: Garrett Crochet. Six innings or more: 11`. Under 6: 21. Rockies: Kyle Freeland. Six innings or more 11. Under 6: 10. Yay! The assertion losing streak ends at 10 teams. The assertion tally is now 7-16-3. Brewers: Tobias Myers. Six innings or more: 9. Under 6: 18. The final three teams are sort of asterisks, as they did not have three starters with at least 20 starts - which is the statistical minimum for starting pitchers for x per game statistics. I took the third starter with the most starts, but it's fine to call it a day at 7-17-3. It doesn't get any better for the assertion. Marlins: Ryan Weathers. Six innings or more: 8. Under 6: 8. Another tie. Dodgers: Yashinobu Yamamoto. Six innings or more: 7. Under 6: 11. Rangers: Jon Gray. Six innings or more: 7. Under 6: 16. So, it is either 7-17-3 or 7-19-4. Either way, the assertion doesn't look so good. The second assertion was that "even the very worst do it 25% of the time." No, not even for the 'qualified starters' (those with at least 20 starts. Take the bottom of that group, Yariel Rodriguez. Last year, he started 25 games and went 6 or more innings on 6 occasions. That is 24%, which is not 25%. Wait, there's more! Kyle Hendricks had 5 starts of 6 or more innings and 24 of 6 or less. That works out to 17 percent. I could go on, but the second assertion is clearly false.

There were just 14 pitchers in all of MLB that averaged 6 innings per game (and only 9 that averaged 6+) for the season. Your claims are wildly inaccurate. From Baseball Reference:

In the 10 start stretch in June and July 2024, Richardson went 5, 7, 4, 6, 6, 6, 6, 5, 6, 4 innings for the Twins. That averages out to 5.5 innings per start, which is higher than the league average for starting pitchers last year. It's simply not true that he can't pitch deep into games because of his stuff.

I don't know where you are getting your information from, but it is wrong. This is a screenshot from Baseball Reference for his starts in June and July 2024:

SWR went over 5 innings in 10 of his 28 starts and 5 innings in another 4. He had a stretch of four starts where he went 6 innings each time. His average was hurt by his last 6 starts, where he went less than 5 innings each time. It's also worth noting that the MLB average innings for starting pitchers last year was just a little over 5.

Except he wasn't a 'non-CF rookie.' Look at the numbers - he's played CF at each level since college and through the minor and major leagues. He may not be very good at it (the statistics with the Twins seem to bear that out), but it is not accurate to say he was not experienced at the position.

I've thought that as well. He's certainly athletic enough for the position. Throws from third have been more of a problem than fielding, and at 6'2" Royce will have pretty good reach. You'd wish he was a left-handed thrower, but nothing's perfect.

As I've posted elsewhere, this started with Toronto, where he played SS 27 games and CF 26 games for their AA franchise, and the Twins mostly repeated that the remainder of that year and doubled down the next year. However, they didn't play him there at all in the minors in 2023, so I suspect they learned their lesson.

The assertion that the Twins have played Martin 'out of position' is odd, because they started out playing him pretty much the way other teams have played him going all the way back to college. At Vanderbilt, Martin played all over - 3B 64 games, CF 25, 1B 22, LF 15, 2B 13, C (really!) 2, SS 2. He didn't even play 2B his first year there. At Toronto's AA team,. he played SS in 27 games and CF in 26 - never at 2B. When he was traded to the Twins, the first year at Wichita, the Twins replicated his use by Toronto, playing 20 games in CF and 16 at shortstop. The next year at AA, the Twins mostly played him at SS (72) and 7 times both at 2B and CF, with 2 other games in the outfield. The following year, at various levels including AAA, the Twins gravitated to him playing 2B - 39 games, versus 12 in CF and 14 in LF. So, really, it is the Twins that have identified him at 2B, and others that moved him around more. This isn't your narrative.

The biggest weight you gave to Castellano was he was a team's minor league pitcher of the year, not Varland or SWR. Now it is Varland didn't do well in MLB - see the problem with that? Regardless of what SWR had done before last year, he did it at the MLB level. Castellano has no such foundational basis for selecting him to start games that matter in April. You build up starting pitchers' innings, especially when they are young. SWR can grow into more innings. We have absolutely no idea of what Castellano can do above AA.

Wrong - Varland was the Twins MiLB pitcher of the year. Besides, both Varland and SWR had significant AAA experience, which Castellano also does not have. https://www.milb.com/news/louie-varland-named-twins-minor-league-pitcher-of-the-year For that matter, why not put Matthews ahead of Castellano - he was the Twins Minor League Pitcher of the Year and also has MLB experience. Wins early in the season count - I'm not risking those on an unknown quantity when I have a known quantity.

It's spring training - none of the games count. Kick the tires on defensive alignments. Since 99 percent of the posters at TD understand this, it seems pretty self-explanatory.

It's pretty common for teams to not take (m)any regulars on spring training road trips. It's between 4 and 5 hours of accumulated time on a bus - not the way most players want to spend (non-productive) work time. So, I wouldn't read anything into the starting lineup for this game.