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arby58

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Everything posted by arby58

  1. arby58
    That is because you know how he ended up. Maybe look at his stats before the Twins rule 5'd him. The two years before the Twins selected him his numbers were pretty pedestrian. 1998, A- and A, it was ERA of 4.73 over 93 innings pitched, with 94 Ks and a 1.275 WHIP. In 1999, over A it was 4.66 ERA, 160 innings pitched, 150 Ks, and 1.353 WHIP. Those aren't super great numbers, but they were Johan's numbers.
  2. arby58
    In 2023, I almost felt sorry for the batters he faced - so many looked completely overmatched.
  3. arby58
    Festa's A+ WHIP was 1.192; his AA WHIP was 1.363. Castellano's A+ WHIP was 1.232; his AA WHIP was 0.992.
  4. arby58
    The Twins knew his minor league history when they selected him. He was the first Rule 5 draft pick they'd made since 2019 - I think your dismissal of him is too cavalier. Again, look at his MiLB WHIP compared to David Festa.
  5. arby58
    Yeah, and Twins fans exhibit incredible amounts of patience waiting for the high school pitchers to develop.
  6. arby58
    Given the fact the Twins gave 9 MLB starts to Zebby Matthews after just 9 AA and 4 AAA starts, I'm not so sure. Yes, he walks a lot of batters, but he also strikes out a lot. In his 4 MiLB seasons, his WHIP is a not unreasonable 1.214. By contrast, David Festa's over 4 seasons of MiLB is 1.247.
  7. arby58
    I'd say that is the optimistic scenario. The Phillies would have all the leverage, and given that he was their MiLB pitcher of the year last year, I don't think 'cash considerations' would be enough - it would have to be a reasonable prospect,
  8. arby58
    Well, starting pitching ERA is what we should use to judge a starting pitcher. Besides, it was 4.03 as recently as 2022.
  9. arby58
    I'm finding different numbers at Baseball Reference. His splits as a starting pitcher listed there: 2019 - 3.33 2020 - 4.73 2021 - 5.08 2022 - 4.03 2023 - only appeared as a relief pitcher 2024 - 4.99 Career as a starting pitcher: 4.36
  10. arby58
    Yeah, under the radar. Jeferson was an international signing, he'll be 26 in May. Interesting thing is while primarily an outfielder, he has been a catcher for between 20 and 34 games every year until last year, when he only caught in 5 games. Last year, over AA-AAA he had an .819 WAR and was better at AAA than AA.
  11. arby58
    I hadn't thought about that possible use for him. He looks to have a much livelier bat than either of them.
  12. arby58
    You're comparing apples and oranges.
  13. arby58
    I suppose that is the glass half empty impression. I'll go the other way - Ryan and Stewart back on track means none of the Twins' high leverage starting or bullpen arms is dealing with health issues. Topa and Tonkin are/were probably 7-8 in the bullpen pecking order (behind Duran-Jax-Sands-Coulombe-Stewart-Alcala), and, quite frankly, for the long run the Twins are probably better off with Varland and Castellano anyway. It's a shame about Canterino, but he wasn't expected to make the 26 man roster.
  14. arby58
    Zebby was rushed to the Twins last season because they really didn't have any other choice, but I'd put up a bit of a caution flag - while accepting that he has pitched well in his three appearances in spring training (because...it's spring training). Last year he started in A+ where he was actually almost a year older than average for the league, and he performed well (4 starts, 22 2/3 innings pitched, 1.59 ERA and 0.750 WHIP). He was promoted to AA, where he was slightly younger than the average player (by 0.3 years), and performed nearly as well. The Twins then aggressively advanced him to AAA, where he was 3 years younger than average, and his starts didn't go nearly as well (4 starts, 19 innings, 5.68 ERA and 1.316 WHIP). Still, that earned him his ticket to 'the Big Show' and the results weren't impressive. 9 starts, 37.2 innings, 1-4 record, 6.69 ERA and 1.646 WHIP. In his last four starts he pitched 3 1/3, 4 2/3, 4 2/3, and 3 innings. It may be he was running out of gas - between the minors and the Twins, he had 134 2/3 innings pitched. It's great that his fastball MPH is up, but the results from last year suggest he needs more starts at AAA before one can be confident he is ready for the MLB games that count season.
  15. arby58
    The hyperbole related to SWR is completely unfair. Last year, in 28 starts, he was 'knocked out in the first 3 innings' exactly one time, and that was his last start of the season. Before September, these were the numbers of innings pitched in the games he started for the Twins: 6, 5, 3.2, 6, 4.1, 5.1, 4.2, 5, 4.1, 6.1, 4, 6, 5.1, 5.2, 6, 4.1, 6, 3.1, 4, 7, 5, 5, 4.2. Further, his WHIP last year was 1.294; the MLB average for starting pitchers was 1.270 - hardly something that would 'lead the league in WHIP.'
  16. arby58
    Looking at their stats from last year, it's hard to reach the conclusion that Tonkin will 'likely be miles better' than Scott Blewett. Granted, Blewett only threw 20 1/3 innings, but 1.77 ERA and 1.230 WHIP that turned into a WAR of 0.8 isn't bad. Tonkin, between his appearances for 3 MLB teams, was -0.1 WAR, 3.63 ERA and a WHIP OF 1.261. Granted, he did it over 79 1/3 innings, but I'm missing the 'miles better' statistics.
  17. arby58
    SWR proved it last year and put up a 2.0 WAR. His ERA was well under 4.00 until a series of 5 bad starts in September to end his year. Festa showed flashes, but he still ended up with an ERA close to 5.00 and a WAR of 0.4. He also had a series of short starts at the end of last year - and combined between AAA and MLB threw 124 2/3 innings, while SWR combined threw 147. I'd suggest SWR is more tested and more likely to be able to stretch out and get to something approaching Ober's 178 2/3 innings pitched from last year.
  18. arby58
    I don't know what more he needs to prove. It's not like he only did it for a month last year - 62 appearances and 71 1/3 innings pitched with 85Ks and a WHIP under 1.000 - those are not 'hold your breath' numbers.
  19. arby58
    Cole Sands has pitched in TWO spring training games, 1 2/3rds innings, given up 3 runs. Last year, in the regular season, he appeared in 62 games, 71 1/3 innings pitched, 85 Ks, 3.28 ERA and a WHIP of 0.995. I would bet the house that Sands is on the 26 man roster and is pitching in medium to high leverage situations.
  20. arby58
    I understand that, but they can be placed on IL - they do not have to stay on the 26 man roster the entire season.
  21. arby58
    Sands was one of their better relief pitchers last year, particularly in the second half. There is no comparison between Tonkin and Sands.
  22. arby58
    He can be put on the injured list.
  23. arby58
    So far, the Yankees are giving Headrick a look. 3 appearances, 5 2/3 innings. He's struck out 10 batters (wow) but also walked 3. As a result, his WHIP is nothing to write home about (1.59). Only 2 earned runs for a 3.18 ERA. It will be interesting to see how he performs the rest of the spring. I'd probably also rather have him with the Twins than Tonkin.
  24. arby58
    I've yet to be convinced that Tonkin is worthy of a 40 man roster spot - let alone 26. He hasn't exactly been stellar in his 3 relief appearances so far in spring training. The claim that he is a 'rubber arm' isn't compelling, especially early in the season. Meanwhile, if they really like the looks of Castellano, as a 23 year old he has a lot more promise than a 35 year old reliever who was released by three separate teams last year (including the Twins). Castellano was a starting pitcher in the minors, on the rare occasion when they will need 3 innings out of the bullpen, he should be able to deliver it.
  25. arby58
    Topa being down hardly changes that. The headliners are Duran, Jax, Sands, Coulombe, Alcala, Stewart. Topa and Tonkin are next in line (and I'd rather have Varland than Tonkin).
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