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arby58

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Everything posted by arby58

  1. arby58
    In the winter, the Twins appeared to have a surplus of starting pitching. If you take Jax out of high leverage situations, my guess is you would lose as many games as you might win with him starting. Besides, when you've spent years working in one-inning situations, it isn't as easy as flipping a switch to move to 5 or 6 innings of work. There are far fewer examples of relievers successfully going back to being starters than starters becoming relievers - and Duran, Varland (and Jax) are prime examples.
  2. arby58
    When you pitch an inning at a time, you can't just 'step in' and pick up 4, let alone 5 or 6 innings.
  3. arby58
    The team that is loaded at the top of the Top 100 prospects (using MLB.com) is, in fact, Boston. They have Roman Anthony ranked #1 and Marcelo Mayer #6 as well as numbers 40 and 100. I don't think Ryan for Duran is a trade the Twins would make. According to the Trade Simulator, Ryan has a surplus value of 70.1 vs. Duran's 40.8. Ryan is also working on a WAR this year of 3.8 versus Duran's 2.2. Starting pitching is at a premium - there would have to be more to this trade. The player who aligns better, trade simulator-wise is outfielder Roman Anthony, the #1 prospect. His surplus according to the Trade Simulator is 70.7. He is now up with the Red Sox and actually has a slightly better OPS than Duran. I doubt you could get both Anthony and #6 prospect Mayer, as Mayer has a projected trade surplus of 54.8. Maybe they'd throw in Arias (a 2B/SS ranked #40 at the A+ level) who has a trade surplus of 22.1, given he is at least a couple years away. The problem here is Anthony is another left handed batter, not exactly the Twins need at the moment. A team that might match up, prospect-wise, is Philadelphia. Looking at what the Twins might need, they could offer back the #10 prospect, Andrew Painter, a RHP at AAA. He fits the Twins profile of a tall (6'7") pitcher ala Bailey Ober, and has a projected trade surplus of 49.4. They also have the #22 prospect, SS (sort of a need position for the Twins) Aidan Miller, who is at AA and has a projected surplus of 33.7. If they would give up both of those, it might be worthwhile. They also have a catcher ranked #63 in A-ball with a simulator value of 17.9. Maybe the Twins throw in somebody like Brandon Winokur (surplus value of 8.2) to help balance it out.
  4. arby58
    I'd say that Escobar for Duran also worked out well for the Twins, and, according to WAR, so did Lopez (7.4 the last three years) for Arraez (6.1).
  5. arby58
    I agree that Keirsey can't hit, but Wallner is not hopeless. He has been in a slump, but even so he has a higher OPS than France, as well as Jeffers, Lee, Correa, Lewis, Julien, etc. He also hits the ball harder than any player on the team. I'd suggest he is a Rooker waiting to happen.
  6. arby58
    That's better than collectively, with Vazquez, right? Why would you group he and Vazquez unless you were deflating his worth?
  7. arby58
    Maybe take Vazquez out and resort? He is the ultimate anchor offensively.
  8. arby58
    Actually, in looking it up, it was 'pitching, fundamentals, and three run home runs.'
  9. arby58
    Yeah, it is a long season, and players go through ups and downs. Last year, many were down on Santana when he had a slow start, but later in the year, he was arguably their best hitter. Kepler was like that in 2023 as well, and, same thing, came on strong in the second half. One thing that is clear about Wallner - he hits the ball HARD. The five hardest hit balls by a Twin in 2024 were all by Wallner - with two over 116 MPH, which is smoking.
  10. arby58
    Lee's bunt won the game, but it was not the most impactful hit of the game. If the Twins played 'small ball' in the sixth and Clemens maybe scratches out one more run, they wouldn't have been in position to win it in the ninth with a squeeze play. Yes, there is a time and place for just settling for one run (the bottom of the ninth inning in a tie game is the most obvious situation of all), I just don't believe they should fall in love with that strategy earlier in the game.
  11. arby58
    Earl Weaver was one of the all time great managers. His philosophy of winning baseball was "“pitching and three-run homers. Pitching keeps you in the games. Home runs win the game.” The ninth inning squeeze play was fine - but with Buxton on third with no outs, my guess is they could win the game needing only one run in multiple ways. The real impact play of the game was Clemens' three run home run. As Weaver also said, "your most precious possessions on offense are your 27 outs, and if you play for one run, that’s all you’ll get.” An interesting fact from a SABRE member: Weaver was 213-46 (.822) in games where the Orioles hit a three run home run and 1,267-1,014 (.555) when they did not.
  12. arby58
    Yeah, not exactly small ball there. Clemens, for 10 HRs, has been impactful with almost all of them.
  13. arby58
    Clemens' three run HR was small ball?
  14. arby58
    Sorry, meant to say Jeffers.
  15. arby58
    I meant to say Jeffers, not Wallner. The other catching options are worse - he has comparative advantage. BTW, Baseball Reference has him at 0.5 WAR for the year; Vazquez is 0.1 , is six years older and a free agent after this year. Who else do you think will get you positive WAR?
  16. arby58
    The Baseball Trade Values Trade Simulator says that Duran has a surplus value of 19.1 and Rushing 43.1. According to that simulator, that trade isn't happening
  17. arby58
    Somebody has to catch for the Twins - Wallner is as close to untouchable trade-wise as any tradeable position player.
  18. arby58
    Buxton has a full no-trade contract and, from everything I've read, is happy here and wants to be one of those rare one-franchise career players. He and Correa aren't going anywhere. I agree that Ryan is their most prized MLB tradeable asset at the moment - IF the Twins decide to shut it down, play-offs-wise, it would be interesting to see what kind of haul they could get for him.
  19. arby58
    There are 13 second basemen with a WAR higher than Clemens' 1.0 at this point in the season (according to MLB.com). Several are barely above it: Witt (3.4), Turang (2.6), Donovan (2.3), Horner and Marte (2.2), Chisholm and Torres (1.6), Edman, Gimenez, and Holliday (1.2), McNeil and Kim (1.1). Given the salary disparity with some of these players, I'm not sure the 'in tremendous trouble' claim is valid at the moment.
  20. arby58
    It's a long season, and, with a 1.0 WAR that is higher than all Twins batters save Buxton, Bader, and Jeffers, Clemens deserves plenty of opportunities to get back on track. Meanwhile, the Twins hitters with a negative WAR this year are Bride, Fitzgerald, Gasper, McCusker, Miranda, Julien, and Keirsay. My guess is Bride is the first out when the Twins next play 26-man roster musical chairs.
  21. arby58
    Hope is a great thing - never lose hope.
  22. arby58
    He was shining in college at 21 at Cedarville University, to the tune of 1 HR and an .871 OPS against inferior college opposition. Altuve, at 21, between A+ and AA, had 10 HRs and a 1.017 OPS. Eerily similar comps?
  23. arby58
    His first 4 years of college, he hit 6 home runs - total. 2023, 7, and last year 'broke out' with 12. I think he's 'filled out' by now at age 25, so expecting power is highly unlikely.
  24. arby58
    Eeles played 4 years of college against inferior competition. He did play a 5th year of college at a strong program (Coastal Carolina), but it's still hard to get super excited about a 25 year old prospect with little pop.
  25. arby58
    About the only thing Eeles and Altuve have in common is they're both short. Altuve made the majors at 21 without ever having played at AAA and has a career WAR of around 53. Eeles hasn't even sniffed the majors at 25. A more apt comparison would be Nick Gordon, who had some minor league success and also made his Twins debut at 25 years of age. Wasn't exactly a stellar MLB career.
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