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arby58

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Everything posted by arby58

  1. arby58
    You forget he traded FOR Duran. BTW, Duran has not been an All Star.
  2. arby58
    It's a title earned in human tournaments, so it's not going to go away. You call it slop - they used to say the same thing about accountants who used Excel rather than a 9-key keypads that produced paper tape output. Time marches on - and productivity improves.
  3. arby58
    You're shifting the goal posts. Now it is that they developed players, but those who developed them are gone? As if they died with the secret?
  4. arby58
    I'm fascinated by those who view AI as something to be categorically disdained. Machine learning via AI comes from distilling the content produced by humans. Sometimes it is portrayed in ways that aren't accurate - sort of like humans. I am a national master in chess. 20 years ago, the best 'AI' programs couldn't compete with the best human players. That ship has sailed - the best chess AI programs routinely beat even the best human players - even giving odds. Embrace change - or wait for the tire tracks on your chest and forehead.
  5. arby58
    You sound like 'get off my lawn' grumpy old men.
  6. arby58
    Jeffers wasn't a developed catcher?
  7. arby58
    SI gave the Phillies an A- and the Twins a B+. Their write up on the Twins side: "The Twins were certainly hoping to get their hands on Painter, but Abel is an excellent consolation prize. Though he had a 5.04 ERA in his first six starts, he was sensational in his debut, striking out nine batters while surrendering five hits and no runs against the Padres. His upside his high, and he won't be as under as much pressure to perform right away with the Twins not contending just yet. Minnesota's farm system was lacking a top right-handed pitching prospect, and they received just that in Abel, as well as a developmental piece in Tait who could potentially be an everyday catcher in the majors down the line."
  8. arby58
    I don't get this 'failed at player development' mantra. Starting pitching was seen as a strength until injuries took its toll. They traded for Lopez (for a player they developed), but Ryan, Ober, SWR, Matthews, Festa, etc. are theirs, in terms of development. They developed Duran, Jax, Varland among the power arms in the bullpen. In the field, they developed Buxton, Jeffers, Lewis (sorry about injuries, that is not on development), Wallner. That's not 'failed at player development' when that is most of the core of the team.
  9. arby58
    Fangraphs - the site that picked the Twins to win the division each of the last two years.
  10. arby58
    Amen, brother.
  11. arby58
    Sometimes you snooze, you lose. We are not privvy to the discussions with other teams, I assume this was the best offer they had. Teams can move on to other targets. We are seeing that this trade season.
  12. arby58
    The myopia around here. They developed Buxton, they developed Lewis (injuries are not the fault of the development staff). They developed Jeffers. They developed Wallner (and if you are going to complain, he has a 128 OPS+ for his career). They developed Ryan, they developed Duran, they developed Jax, they developed Ober, they developed Varland. Etc., etc, etc. There are plenty of young players where the jury is still out. Books Lee is an example. They have plenty of highly rated prospects in the pipeline, including Keaschall, Culpepper, Rodriguez, Jenkins.
  13. arby58
    I used MLB.com. We all know prospects are a lottery ticket, but Abel was at least already in MLB, and was starting for a stretch for a pretty good team. His AAA stats are also good this year, with a 7-2 record, 2.31 ERA 1.161 WHIP and 81 Ks in 74 IP.
  14. arby58
    When the Twins traded for Duran in 2018, he was in A ball too. It took four years to get to MLB, and another year to settle in. I know that patience is hard for many fans to accept, but Tait was the Phillies #4 prospect and, according to MLB.com, #56 in the top 100 prospects in MLB this year. They had Keaschall at 42 and Kaelen Culpepper at 85, for comparison. Meanwhile, Abel was already part of the Phillies starting pitching staff. Yes, control has been an issue, but he's still young, and he was also the #49 prospect in 2024 - not far from Emma, who was 42. They basically got what they asked for - two top 100 prospects.
  15. arby58
    Actually, you want to play with their money (i.e., spend it), I am willing to let them play with their money (i.e., keep it or spend it) - they are not the same thing. The logic you hang on is that the Twins would have gotten a better 'investment' (i.e., prospect lottery ticket) if Dobnak had not been included. The problem is money hasn't been the root cause of the Twins issues the past two seasons - they have spent more than the teams finishing above them in the Central Division each year. Given the lottery ticket nature of prospects, what they might have gotten more of without including Dobnak appears to be more an argument about 'the principle of things' than about something tangible. My career is in finance, so yeah, I'd be just fine with pocketing a couple million if there was little likelihood of a better ROI from haggling for another prospect.
  16. arby58
    The Pohlads own the team, and major league sports is a business. 'Pocketing a few million bucks' can be part of making the financial picture work at any given point in time. Regardless of how we all feel about it, most every MLB team has a budget, and when you look at those budgets (with some year to year swings) they largely fit into about four categories: 1. Big market, big budget teams. 2. Medium market, medium budget teams 3. Seriously financially constrained teams. My view has been there are about 8 teams in the first cohort, 16 teams in the second, and 6 in the final group. The Twins are, nearly every year, in the middle group. As has been noted elsewhere, they have a larger payroll this year than every other team in the AL Central. Their performance of late (and things that drive revenue) has fallen off. If that means management is looking for cost cutting measures, they are no different than most any business that encounters revenue challenges. It's always easier to play with other people's money.
  17. arby58
    Both sides in a trade are working with incomplete information, and you have to wonder just how many of these 'x and y teams are interested' are just feigns and bluffs. Let's say I'm the Yankees and I'm interested in a starting pitcher not named Paddock. You might feign interest in Paddock so the team you're actually talking with thinks their leverage is diminished. If you follow the rumor mill sites, you'll find teams 'interested' in far more players than they will actually be able to acquire. The only reason to do that is to reduce leverage of your actual target. Further, if the Twins had waited around for another offer, the existing offer might be taken off the table. My guess is the Twins threw Dobnak into the trade not at the start of the negotiations but at the end, when they couldn't get anything more out of the Tigers than the prospect they got.
  18. arby58
    Yes, they both can be true. There are also variations on this theme that might be true - it's all conjecture. Here is how the conversation might have played out: Tigers: Interested in Paddack, what do you want in return? Twins: prospect A (playing in A-ball)? Tigers: Can't go that high on our prospect list. How about prospect J, in the FCL? Twins: In the FCL? How about prospect B? Tigers: Nope - what else would you need besides prospect J? Twins: You take Dobnak off our hands and you've got a deal. Tigers: Dobnak? He's 1-7 in Triple A with an ERA north of 7 and a guaranteed contract! Twins: That's the deal if all you'll offer is Prospect J. Tigers: Deal.
  19. arby58
    I'm missing the logic - if there is no difference between a $10M and a $11.2M player, how does the argument go that a prospect is markedly better with or without the $1.2M? I think this is all making a mountain out of a molehill.
  20. arby58
    I would have sent him away for a bag of balls - and paid for the bag of balls as well.
  21. arby58
    Trading for prospects isn't a linear equation, and the rankings of prospects are all over the map. They got a decent prospect, but they are all more or less lottery tickets. Claims this 'lowered the return' in a way that is material is conjecture.
  22. arby58
    I like what they got back for Paddack - a young catcher who appears to have reasonable upside. The Dobnak stuff is just a sideshow. They got literally less than nothing out of Randy's long-term contract - I don't begrudge them trying to 're-gift' part of it to another team.
  23. arby58
    What if it was exactly the same return? I'm still keeping Duran. The OP makes a strong case, but Jax has not been 'the man' as a closer at all this year. Even if Duran's MPH on his fastball is declining, it would still take a couple of years, at the cited linear rate, for Jax to catch up. I'll take those couple of years of Duran 'only' averaging 99 MPH.
  24. arby58
    Noah Cardenas IS looking good. Between AA and AAA, he has an .850 OPS, 9 HRs in 189 ABs, and a decent walks to K ratio (27 walks, 37 Ks). And, as you point out, it will be a long time before he would earn $10 million a year in salary.
  25. arby58
    You would think so, unless one believes the Tigers were really motivated to pick up a 30 year old AAA pitcher with a 1-7 record and a 7.12 ERA. If so, I have a bridge I'd like to sell you.
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