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arby58

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Everything posted by arby58

  1. arby58
    The biggest difference, of course, is Mauer was a catcher (at least at the start), so that was a big plus. But in terms of their approach to hitting, they look similar. The game still has room for guys who 'hit like Joe.' I'm not projecting an HOF career based on it, of course - but the comparison is remarkable.
  2. arby58
    Mendez' stats compare pretty well with Joe Mauer's at AA. Joe was 20, Mendez 21. They each had a great 'eye' - Joe 25 walks and 25 Ks, Mendez 67 walks and 65 Ks. Joe's OBP was .400, Mendez was .399. Joe's slugging percentage was .453, Mendez was .439. Joe had 4 HRs in 310 PAs, Mendez 11 in 491. I'm not convinced he has to change his approach all that much to be an impactful offensive player.
  3. arby58
    It's hard for me to get that excited about Young (other than his pedigree, at least half of it) just yet. There is a boom/bust look to him. I'm now convinced I would move Mendez to 13.
  4. arby58
    I agree about DeBarge, but I like Mendez where he is ranked - maybe (depending on the next group) a bit higher. You've gotta love the K to W ratio, and the rest of the stats are good as well. If he can make the switch to 1B it would give the Twins a possible homegrown answer at that question mark of a position.
  5. arby58
    Which ones have anything close to Lopez' performance record? There was a time some might have thought it smart to offer contract extensions to Kirilloff, Julien, and Miranda.
  6. arby58
    Not every player is poor defensively and lacking speed. You have to be good at something.
  7. arby58
    Hope springs eternal, but Lee is working with a limited skill set, given his below average defense and speed. Unless he can up his OBP and maintain 20 HR power, he has little future as an everyday player in MLB.
  8. arby58
    We were hoping at least one would step up, now it has to be two. Larnach has little real trade value and also little value to the Twins. Lots of baseball commentators thought the Twins would not tender a contract to him - still don't see how he 'fits' into their plans, given his defensive liability and their surplus of left handed bats to DH. So, if any of these trades would pan out, more power to the Twins.
  9. arby58
    Starting him in the bullpen doesn't necessarily mean he can't go back to being a starting pitcher. Chris Sale was solely a relief pitcher his first two years with the White Sox. Derek Lowe was primarily a relief pitcher his first five years, then at age 29 switched to starting and won 21 games. There are other examples as well. The Twins will likely need another elite starting pitcher at the latest in 2028. He could be the Twins version of Derek Lowe.
  10. arby58
    I'm sure it is the same as the prior article - you only get the full 12 if you pony up $ to become a caretaker. Seems more of it at the start of this year, though, than before.
  11. arby58
    There was an interesting piece on Baseball Prospectus today, where the author, Craig Goldstein, covered prospects who could break camp after Spring training. The gist of the piece was that MLB's introduction of the Prospect Promotion Incentives has led to more top prospects breaking camp with the big league teams. He then reviewed 5 of the 'typical suspects' who might make it on MLB rosters and what PECOTA thinks of them. The first few names were far from surprises, as Konnor Griffin and Kevin McGonigle were MLB's top two prospects, and JJ Wetherholt was number 5. The next two were slightly more surprising, as Carson Benge was 16 and Jett Williams 51. Of course, this is about those with an opportunity to break camp, not simply the best prospects. Then the author added a 'bonus' pick: Emmanuel Rodriguez. This is what he wrote about him: BONUS Emmanuel Rodriguez, CF, Minnesota Twins 117 DRC+ | .238/.356/.410 | Top 101: No. 48 It would be a shock if Rodriguez broke camp with the Twins, but I had to throw him in here because of his outrageous DRC+ projection. PECOTA just doesn’t love rookies this much! Especially ones that swing and miss like he does. But, when he’s healthy enough to take the field, Rodriguez takes plenty of walks, and assembled enough of a Triple-A track record that the model is buying in. He also hits the ball hard when he does make contact, driving an incredible .375 projected BABIP (his career minor-league number is .363). But because he puts so few balls in play, the average is still playing down, but what’s salvaging it is the more aggressive (for PECOTA) slugging projection, which is powered by a projected .718 SLGCON (.812 career). I don’t entirely know what to do with a projection this gung-ho, but I had to include it given the optimism from a normally conservative projection system.
  12. arby58
    I tend to agree with pretty much all of this (though I'm more of an SWR fan based on results). My guess is the last spot is Bradley or Abel. Bradley has a bit of an edge since he only has one option remaining.
  13. arby58
    Yeah, all he does is give them a chance to win in most of his starts. Festa has injury issues, and Matthews seems to get hit hard more often than you would expect. SWR isn't flashy, but he gets the job done.
  14. arby58
    I think all the knee injuries caused that ship to sail. He probably no longer has the lateral movement and 'twitch' necessary for the position.
  15. arby58
    I was shocked to read an article in Baseball Prospectus about remaining free agent pitchers, and when they came to bullpen, up popped this table: I literally had to do a doubletake - where are the Twins in this?? I guess misery loves company.
  16. arby58
    That's a good point - they certainly aren't going to carry four left handed relief pitchers.
  17. arby58
    My guess is the Twins would slot him second at the moment.
  18. arby58
    The claim that "Letting Liam Hendriks slip away from them before he morphed into a bulldog of a closer was one of the most regrettable failures of the Twins' front office in the final days of the Terry Ryan regime" is one of the most '20-20 hindsight is always perfect vision' statements in the history of baseball. Hendriks, in his three years with the Twins, had ERAs of 6.17, 5.59, and 6.85. His collective WAR for those three years was -2.0. Then, when the Twins sent him away, in the next year between KC and Toronto, he had an ERA of 5.23 and a WAR of -0.3. He then had four years of ok, not great performance. Finally, at age 30 - 6 years after he left the Twins, he had a breakthrough year, and he had four great years as a closer. So, the Twins let him 'slip away' so that six years later he would turn into a great closer, and that is 'one of the most regrettable failures of the Twins front office?' I call BS.
  19. arby58
    I know the Mets plan to play Polanco at 1B - where he has a total of 1 inning played in his entire MLB career. Considering he will be 33 in July and has had his share of injury issues, I wouldn't be trading Viento if I were the Mets. Baty is interesting, but the other side of the equation - what would it take in terms of Twins pitching to get hin - is left unanswered.
  20. arby58
    Also, Baseball Prospectus is out with their rankings, and they place the Twins 8th (again ranking above htem are the Brewers at 3, Tigers at 6 and Guardians at 7). Their comment: " Minnesota Twins Strengths: The Twins have a strong quartet of bats at the top and above-average depth Weaknesses: The pitching is a bit behind the hitting The Twins have generally been a boringly above-average system and this year is no exception. Their top prospects are on the cusp of the majors though, and they don’t have as much depth as usual behind them.
  21. arby58
    Tell it to Baseball Reference - it's their stat. I'm sure you're more qualified to judge. I notice you don't take issue with Wallner having a higher OPS, OPS+ and OBP. Sounds like cherrypicking on your part.
  22. arby58
    Last year he cut down his percentage of Ks - and had his worst offensive year. If your OPS+ is 27% better than the league average, you accept and move on. If every Twin has his OPS+ their offense will score a lot more runs in 2026.
  23. arby58
    Well, 'dude' you're wrong on OBP - for his career, Wallner is .344 and Larnach is .323.
  24. arby58
    There was a pretty damning piece on Keaschall in Baseball Prospectus a couple weeks ago. The gist was that he has unacceptale power for a player who is not an elite fielder at his position:" It brings me no joy to throw a wet blanket over the Keaschall hype, but his power is below the minimum acceptable standard for an MLB starter. His 100.8 mph EV90 is practically tied with two other second basemen—Andrés Giménez and Nico Hoerner. Player EV90 (mph) Z-Con% BB% DRC+ DRP PA WARP Andrés Giménez 100.8 84.1% 6.8% 81 2.4 369 0.8 Nico Hoerner 100.7 95.7% 6.0% 105 6.1 649 3.6 Luke Keaschall 100.8 89.9% 9.2% 108 -0.4 207 0.9 Keaschall has a good zone-contact rate, but it’s not elite. He supplements his value by drawing more walks, which might dry up if pitchers challenge him more in the strike zone, since he’s just a singles hitter. The biggest difference separating Giménez and Hoerner from Keaschall is that they have five Gold Gloves between them, and Keaschall is a below-average defender. Almost all of the players with his lack of pop are either great fielders, bench players, or both. He doesn’t make enough contact or play his position well enough to get to Hoerner’s level, and there aren’t many other paths for players without power.
  25. arby58
    In what universe is Larnach a better hitter than Wallner? Larnach career: .726 OPS, 101 OPS+, 1.2 average WAR/year. Wallner career: .829 OPS, 127 OPS+, 2.7 average WAR/year. It's not even close.
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