Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

arby58

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    1,516

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    8

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by arby58

  1. arby58
    MVP in AA, .822 OPS in AAA, peak prospect ranking between 30-44 - doesn't sing superstar to me. If you bought into that, fine - I didn't. Being Europe's greatest baseball talent is sort of like being Africa's - not a lot of competition. Compare with Jenkins, a top 10-15 prospect, who but for injuries was/would be top 5. Kepler, at age 22, playing a full year at AA, put up a .947 OPS. Jenkins, at 20, playing about a half year at AA, put up a .912 and then got promoted to AAA - Kepler did not. My guess is if Jenkins had played a full year at AA, at 20 years old, his OPS would have at least matched Kepler's.
  2. arby58
    It is interesting that other models do not believe this is a bad team, even as currently constructed. I will grant you that these same models have projected it to be better than they ended up being, although the tear down at the end of last year has something to do with that. Maybe new leadership will help. They retooled last year with what I believe was a clear indicator they were looking beyond 2026. They do have a lot valuable pieces.
  3. arby58
    I'm not sure anybody realistically expects an extension. Ryan has two years to prove last year wasn't an aberation. I don't expect it will effect his performance on the field. Asking for a trade doesn't mean you have to be traded. I expect Ryan will be in prove it mode this and next year.
  4. arby58
    RBI is a stat of opportunity - the only way to drive them in is somebody being on base or hitting a HR. Batting average is inferior to OBP. K ratio is fine - and Jenkins is good on that one. Still, OPS is far superior to batting average, and Arraez is the poster child for why that is. Even though he has a high batting average, most of his hits are singles, which takes a lot of additional effort to score him (particularly since he doesn't run very well). It's part of why he is among the league leaders in batting average but not in runs scored.
  5. arby58
    The ASG as a measure of ability is problematic - every team has to have a representative, fan voting is part of the equation, it really only measures performance in half a season, etc. Jhoan Duran didn't make the All Star team but was plenty worthy in at least a couple of years. The Twins developed Spencer Steer, then traded him as part of the Mahle package in 2022, and he promptly was 6th in ROY balloting in the National League in 2023.
  6. arby58
    Ryan was a decent starter but not 'other world' until last year. Lopez has been steadily good but never up to the 4.5 WAR Ryan put up last year - his strongest suit (before last year) was a really good innings eater. In other words, there isn't any reason the Twins can't develop another elite starting pitcher or two. They've got some of their own prospects that should be ready by 2027 or 2028 - Dasan Hill, Charlee Soto, C.J. Culpepper. They've also got Bradley, Abel, Rojas, Gallagher that they acquired in last year's trading sell-off. I don't think the cupboard is bare starting-pitching-wise. It's also possible that they could use Prielipp in relief for a year or two and transition him back to being a starter, if he can build up his arm - ala Santana.
  7. arby58
    Cardenas had an OPS above .800 at both Wichita and St. Paul last year - that would play just fine as a starting catcher in MLB, let alone a backup. I'd give him a long look in spring training.
  8. arby58
    Other than the strikeouts being high, I don't see the resemblance. Emma's strikeouts are attributed to taking too many strikes, while I don't recall that being Sano's MO at the plate. Other than the Ks, they don't really look much like each other. Emma has speed (usually double digits in stolen bases), where Sano's high in the majors in a year was two.
  9. arby58
    He's played some in the outfield at each minor league stop along the way to MLB, with the only exception being AAA in 2025, when he was coming back from Tommy John surgery.
  10. arby58
    While K rate may be a concern, it's been pointed out by others that, among others that turned out all right, Aaron Judge had a high strikeout rate in the minor leagues as well.
  11. arby58
    I went through the list of international signings on Spotrac, and they list 17 pitchers in this year's Minnesota Twins class - although most of these were quite a ways down the list in terms of dollar amount.
  12. arby58
    My non-Nick personal opinion is if there is a 2027 season, the Twins could be in 'legit championship window.' This could be their starting line-up: 1. Buxton RF 2. Keaschall 1B 3. Jenkins CF 4. Wallner/Roden DH 5. Lewis 3B 6. Emma LF 7. Lee 2B 8. C 9. Culpepper SS Martin is the utility player, maybe DeBarge. with Gonzalez and Mendez in the outfield. Starting Pitching: 1. Ryan 2. Lopez 3. Matthews 4. SWR 5.Bradley Bullpen: 1. Sands 2. Funderburk 3. Prielipp 4. Festa 5. Rojas 6. Reya Obviously, Catcher is a short-term issue (Tait probably 2028), but the pitching staff looks really solid. Ober can be traded for a catcher(?), and there are some other chips as well, especially since Abel isn't slotted here. If he performs, maybe SWR is also a chip.
  13. arby58
    I agree, that is a problem - however, the OP's claim was that the Twins didn't develop major league players. Injuries have derailed many a player who had developed into a MLB talent. The other developed player I mentioned was Ober, and he has a career WAR of 9.2. For that matter, SWR has a WAR of 4.0.
  14. arby58
    No, please - I take it all back: Ryan would be no better than the number two starter on every team in baseball, Royce Lewis (career OPS+ of 109) and Matt Wallner (career OPS+ of 127) are barely major leaguers, and we'd be lucky to get a relief pitcher for Walker Jenkins. For that matter, Twins fans should envy the collective assets of teams like the Colorado Rockies and Las Angeles Angels.
  15. arby58
    Lee, Lewis, and Wallner all have positive WAR - which is the definition of 'average or better everyday major league players.' Ryan's #11 ranking in WAR, according to ESPN, is better than the top pitcher on the following teams that had .500 or better records in 2025 (and the first four were play-off teams): Toronto, Seattle, Chicago Cubs, Cleveland, New York Mets, Kansas City, and Texas.
  16. arby58
    'Zero track record' is overly cynical. Byron Buxton has 29.8 career WAR, which is higher than several players in the Twins Hall of Fame (Michael Cuddyer, Dan Gladden, Corie Coskie, and Cesar Tovar among others). A couple more productive years and he'll be in much-loved Kent Hrbek territory. Both Bailey Ober and Ryan Jeffers have had productive MLB careers in a relatively short period of time, and other sources suggest that Brooks Lee, Matt Wallner, and, yes, Royce Lewis are MLB-worthy assets - all transitioned successfully into major leaguers. Among other over-cynicisms, there are multiple teams where Joe Ryan would be the #1 starting pitcher (he was 11th in WAR among MLB pitchers last year), and every team in baseball would be on the phone if the Twins indicated a willingness to move a consensus top 10-15 outfielder who made AAA at 20 years of age.
  17. arby58
    It's interesting that he doesn't make the top 20 trade assets on the Baseball Trade Simulator either.
  18. arby58
    Jeffers is the only one of those four who can walk after 2026. So, the Baseball Trade Simulator assigns surplus value of 15.3 to Jeffers. IF the Phillies were willing to give up RHPs Gage Wood (#4 prospect according to MLB and 6.0 surplus value trade simulator) and Moises Chace (#8 prospect and 8.6 surplus value) and throw in a A-ball lottery ticket, would the Twins do it? Stockpiling starting pitching has been their theme of late. That said, I tend to believe that Realmuto and the Phillies will reach an agreement, probably shortly before Spring Training. S
  19. arby58
    Absolutely no baseball world where that trade exists for any of those three for one year of Jeffers. You can bet the Twins asked for Painter or Miller for Duran and didn't come anywhere close to that in return.
  20. arby58
    My guess is the 'final five' are 1. Jenkins 2. Ryan 3. Keaschall 4. Culpepper 5. Lopez. I'm pretty sure of the 'top 2' and the other three are somewhat interchangeable. In some other posts, I've compared this list to that generated by the Baseball Trade Value Simulator. By far the biggest outlier (in terms of this list having higher value than the trade simulator) is SWR - they don't have him in their top 20 Twins trade assets (although I think they have him too low). Assuming Lopez is in the top 5, he is also more highly valued than the simulator, which ranks him 15th. Same with Culpepper, who they rank 14th. I tend to agree with the higher value for Culpepper and am not sure about Lopez. On the flip side, it gives much higher value to Lee (5 vs. 18) and Bradley (4 vs. 10). I'm not sold on Lee, but Bradley is intriguing. As I said elsewhere, this is all subjective, and only time will tell. It would be an interesting look-back exercise in three or four years.
  21. arby58
    That it's not a 'this year' roster is the point of assigning value to assets for their useful life, not their current value. Obviously, if we were talking current value as an MLB player, Walker Jenkins would have already been on the list (and current MLB players like Ryan Jeffers and Bailey Ober wouldn't be trailing the likes of Bradley or Emma).
  22. arby58
    It wouldn't matter as much for Lee offensively if he were a better defensive shortstop. Ideally, he would be at second base, Keaschall would be in the outfield, and they would have a better fielding shortstop playing there. My mid-winter daydream would have Kaelen Culpepper making the jump from AA to the majors and playing average shortstop (a step above Lee) and hitting at least as well. It's nice to dream - hope springs eternal, at least until spring.
  23. arby58
    It's a little selective in your recollection. First, I don't remember most people suggesting Kepler was going to be a superstar - he was sub .800 OPS his first three years and didn't get above that until 2019, which was about when Buxton emerged. Sano was long lost by then - his three year peak was 2015-2017. So what did the Twins do after 2019? They signed Donaldson for a collective $92 million in 2020, then Cruz ($13.5 million) and Simmons ($10.5 million) in 2021, and Correa for a collective $105 million in 2022. It wasn't all standing in the soup line for the Twins during that period.
  24. arby58
    Right, I'd suggest there is some recency bias in play. The Baseball Trade Simulator has him 10th among Twins assets, slightly ahead of both BB and Lewis.
  25. arby58
    According to the Baseball Trade Simulator, the 'high end asset values' are Jenkins and Ryan (surplus of 53.9 and 52.5 respectively). They have Keaschall and Bradley also ahead of Lee, who checks in at number 5. I also tend to view that as a bit too high.
×
×
  • Create New...