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arby58

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Everything posted by arby58

  1. arby58
    That is IF they get improvement from Wallner and Lewis AND a full season of Keaschall. I'm fine with the Bell signing, but he's not going to get them there by himself. You also had a career year from BB last year. Besides the offense and pitching, I'm not sold on a defense with Lee full time at SS, Keaschall at 2B and either Bell regularly at 1B or Wallner regularly in RF. None of them is even league average. That's why I hope Emma (or Jenkins, I suppose) can play regularly in the OF and hope of all hopes, Culpepper becomes the second half starting SS.
  2. arby58
    I'm in general not a pessimist about the Twins - I agree they will have a very solid starting rotation, and I think they can put together the pieces in the bullpen. That said, it is hard for me to agree they will be '5-7 in runs scored in the league this year.' Last year they were 10th in the AL and 23rd in MLB. Sure, maybe they get bounceback years from Lewis and Wallner and a full year from Keaschall, but otherwise they aren't notably better, other than maybe 1B, and their defense is still questionable. I'm already on record taking the under on 91 losses, but I think they'll be slightly below .500 on the year. That said, if Culpepper, Jenkins, and Emma make regular progress, I like the looks of the team in 2027 - even if it is a shortened season.
  3. arby58
    I agree with Culpepper at number two IF he can handle MLB SS. I predict he starts at St. Paul and, IF all goes well, he is headed to Target field after the All Star break. My bet is Prielipp breaks camp out of the bullpen - they've been signalling that for a while now, and given his injury history, it makes sense. That said, a relief pitcher isn't going to be your number two prospect. Tait is a long ways away. IF he isn't on the injured list, Emma is most likely of the everyday prospects to break camp as a corner outfielder/CF when Buxton needs a break. He's a far better athlete than Gonzalez, and this team needs athleticism. If this comes to pass, the Twins are going to deal some of their surplus of corner outfielders (don't expect much in return, unless they deal Wallner, which I doubt). I'd expect Wallner to get a lot of time at DH and they trust Bell to handle 1B on a semi-regular basis.
  4. arby58
    I would take the bet on this being less than a 91 loss team. Players that need a bounceback for their income future (Lewis, Wallner, Lee). Lots of good 'hungry' talent. A likely stable starting pitching staff. You can make a bullpen on the fly with enough good/failed starting pitchers with high MPH and another pitch (i.e.,, they have a lot of them).
  5. arby58
    While I agree the current roster configuration is suboptimal, I would also note that in 2023, the Michael Taylor trade was made on 1/23 (two days from now), Donovan Solano was signed on 2/23, and Castro's contract was purchased from the St. Paul Saints on 3/29. Oh, and Pablo Lopez was added via trade on 1/20. I know the author caveats this, but that caveat is important: I'm not sure this analysis is ripe for prime time. I'd like it better in terms of comparison to the actual 2026 roster the Twins trot out.
  6. arby58
    They 'stashed' him after offering him to every other MLB team willing to put in a waiver claim. He's nothing more than AAA filler, regardless of who the team is (or somebody like the Rockies would have taken a flyer on him). It's simply nothing to get worked up about.
  7. arby58
    They both have options, so they can both be stashed at AAA. Fitzgerald was so valuable that no other team claimed him off waivers. Not too shocking, given he is 31 years old (2 years older than Gray) never made the majors until mop up time last season with the Twins, and in 7 minor league seasons put up a .770 OPS.
  8. arby58
    ?? In the majors, he has played 80 innings at 2B, 73 at SS, 65 at 3B, and 63 at 1B.
  9. arby58
    I doubt Houston will hit enough to become a regular MLB SS. I don't understand the fascination with Keaschall at first base. He's only played 13 games there in the minors and MLB - far more at 2B and the outfield. Besides, his bat profiles better in those positions than 1B.
  10. arby58
    Of that group, I don't expect to see Priellip in St. Paul - look to the west.
  11. arby58
    Duran wasn't a relief pitcher and stepped right into the role as a rookie. For that matter, the Twins penchant for taking former starting pitchers and making them into relief pitchers is well known - they also did it with Jax, and, of course, Varland. Relief pitching, if you are coming in at the start of an inning with the bases clear, isn't all that different (other than the warm up process) than starting pitching. It can be 'learned' on the fly.
  12. arby58
    I had a boss who used to label this sort of wish for timing 'too cute by half.' It may well be that the Twins will now trade Jeffers, but trying to orchastrate it just right - that's hard. For that matter, if they had reversed the order, maybe the signed catcher realizes he has greater leverage now that the Twins don't have a starting catcher. It's not that easy.
  13. arby58
    Cruz was honorable mention, and both Ryan and Duran are still in their prime. In the article, honorable mentions went to 'current regime' Polanco, Correa, Buxton, and Kepler along with Cruz. Besides, as somebody else pointed out, 5 of the 10 positions are manned by Hall of Famers (you could make it 6 if Thome were the DH).
  14. arby58
    To be fair, you had 60+ years of the former regimes to pick through. Also, if you added a pitching staff, Duran and Ryan may well be on it. Cruz isn't ancient history either. As for the future, Royce Lewis is still only 26 and could get things straightened out - Michael Cuddyer's breakout season was at age 27. Luke Keaschall might also prove to be the real deal.
  15. arby58
    Santana is the #1 starting pitcher. Morris only played 1 year, hard to include that over Santana - or Radke for that matter. Guardado belongs in the bullpen.
  16. arby58
    Only Varland was a starting pitcher at the MLB level for more than one year. Duran never started a regular season game for the Twins. Sands didn''t start a regular season game after his (brief) first year with the Twins. Jax was only a regular starting pitcher his first year with the Twins.
  17. arby58
    That's correct. In 2022, his first year, he ended up with 8 saves and 18 holds, and his outings were (particularly early in the year) often of the 2 inning variety (14 of 57 appearances were for more than 1 inning but never more than 2). It wasn't until his last 5 outings of the season that he was solely coming in at the close of the game.
  18. arby58
    IF the Twins could get Teel for Wallner, I would make that trade - my guess is they could only get Quero, and I'm not feeling the love as much in that case. While you don't like OPS, WAR (which includes fielding metrics) still prefers Wallner over Bell, and the guys in AAA still have something to prove. As for catcher, I'd give Cardenas a good look in spring training and see how he does in AAA - he may be as good as Quero by mid-season.
  19. arby58
    I don't get the disdain for Wallner, particularly in comparison to Bell. Over the last three years, Wallner's OPS+ was 138, 149, 110, and Bell was 101, 100, 110. Wallner's WAR was 2.2, 2.2, and 0.6, while Bell was -0.1, -0.6, and 0.4. Last year, they both had 22 HRs, but Wallner did it in 392 PAs while Bell had 533. Wallner is 28 and controllable, Bell is 33 on a 1-year contract. No way I'm casting off Wallner. Larnach, OTOH . . .
  20. arby58
    At 17, in A ball, he had a .777 OPS. When Joe Mauer was 19, he had a .785 OPS in A ball. They're vastly different hitters - Tait with much more power (even at a younger age) but Mauer with a far better K/W rate. At 20, in A+ ball, Mauer had a .807 OPS - Tait, at 18, .738. I do think you have to cut him some slack for the difference in age and development.
  21. arby58
    MVP in AA, .822 OPS in AAA, peak prospect ranking between 30-44 - doesn't sing superstar to me. If you bought into that, fine - I didn't. Being Europe's greatest baseball talent is sort of like being Africa's - not a lot of competition. Compare with Jenkins, a top 10-15 prospect, who but for injuries was/would be top 5. Kepler, at age 22, playing a full year at AA, put up a .947 OPS. Jenkins, at 20, playing about a half year at AA, put up a .912 and then got promoted to AAA - Kepler did not. My guess is if Jenkins had played a full year at AA, at 20 years old, his OPS would have at least matched Kepler's.
  22. arby58
    It is interesting that other models do not believe this is a bad team, even as currently constructed. I will grant you that these same models have projected it to be better than they ended up being, although the tear down at the end of last year has something to do with that. Maybe new leadership will help. They retooled last year with what I believe was a clear indicator they were looking beyond 2026. They do have a lot valuable pieces.
  23. arby58
    I'm not sure anybody realistically expects an extension. Ryan has two years to prove last year wasn't an aberation. I don't expect it will effect his performance on the field. Asking for a trade doesn't mean you have to be traded. I expect Ryan will be in prove it mode this and next year.
  24. arby58
    RBI is a stat of opportunity - the only way to drive them in is somebody being on base or hitting a HR. Batting average is inferior to OBP. K ratio is fine - and Jenkins is good on that one. Still, OPS is far superior to batting average, and Arraez is the poster child for why that is. Even though he has a high batting average, most of his hits are singles, which takes a lot of additional effort to score him (particularly since he doesn't run very well). It's part of why he is among the league leaders in batting average but not in runs scored.
  25. arby58
    The ASG as a measure of ability is problematic - every team has to have a representative, fan voting is part of the equation, it really only measures performance in half a season, etc. Jhoan Duran didn't make the All Star team but was plenty worthy in at least a couple of years. The Twins developed Spencer Steer, then traded him as part of the Mahle package in 2022, and he promptly was 6th in ROY balloting in the National League in 2023.
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