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arby58

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Everything posted by arby58

  1. arby58
    The only name that I would consider trading either of them for is Rushing. Agree that Ferris would be another decent piece of the puzzle.
  2. arby58
    His OPS throughout his minor league career has been pretty solid, and he's still only 24. I agree that sometimes patience is necessary - and generally not to be found on fan comment boards.
  3. arby58
    I don't disagree, which is why I stuck to ordinals related to trade surplus in my last response.
  4. arby58
    I think they have the Twins' three primary assets about right - Ryan, Jenkins, Buxton. The rest of the order is subject to some quibbling, but also doesn't seem to be such bovine excrement. After Buxton, they go, in order, Emma, Keaschall, Jax, Wallner, Matthews, Festa, Lee, Duran, Lewis, SWR, Prielipp, K. Culpepper, Ober, Varland. On the opposite end, there are four with negative trade values: Correa (-33.6), Vazquez (-2.8), Dobnak (-2.1), Topa (-0.9). Can't argue with any of those four.
  5. arby58
    Not so sure about that. The Baseball Trade Simulator projects Jax' surplus value as 27.2 and Duran as 20.5. As I noted earlier, I'd rather they keep Duran anyway, but if the simulator is correct (and I'm not vouching for it, just providing it as another source of information), then trade Jax.
  6. arby58
    I tend to agree with you. OTOH, Ryan may never have greater trade value. The Baseball Trade Simulator currently lists his surplus value as 73.1 - far and away the most of any Twins asset. Jenkins is next at 61.9, followed by Buxton (who isn't going anywhere) at 43.6. Interestingly, they put Jax' surplus value (27.2) ahead of Duran (20.5).
  7. arby58
    I was referring to your earlier quote, " I've never had much faith in Duran because, if he started losing velocity, that's a real problem long-term."
  8. arby58
    I don't entirely understand the love for Jax and relative disdain for Duran. Sure, his velocity is down a bit, 'only' hitting 100 mph every now and then, but a lot of baseball people don't think that's his best pitch (and maybe only third best) anyway. If you line up the stats, this year and career-wise, Duran wins hands-down - and he is three years younger. ERA year/career: Duran 1.62, 2.40; Jax 3.83, 3.97. WHIP year/career: Duran 1.128, 1.093; Jax 1.181, 1.129. WAR year/career: Duran 2.3, 7.3 (in four years); Jax 0.5, 3.9 (in five years). What am I missing?
  9. arby58
    It's hard to ignore Keaschall's impactful (if brief) appearance for the MLB Twins. 0.4 WAR in 26 plate appearances is pretty darn incredible. Granted, it could have been a fluke, but I will give those 26 PAs far more weight than comparing the two at the same age in MiLB. Besides, as noted, Keaschall has more speed and defensive ability.
  10. arby58
    The real issue is you'd be selling extremely low. It's sort of the problem that Chicago has had with trading CF Luis Robert Jr. - he of the 2025 season .625 OPS and 74 OPS+.
  11. arby58
    I take statements at face value - i.e., the writer meant what they said. It makes me feel better if that is actually the case. Your mileage may differ.
  12. arby58
    That litmus test hasn't existed for the Twins in recent memory (being 23 games over .500 near the trading deadline). You'd have to go back to 2019 for that.
  13. arby58
    He should be where he is, playing corner outfield or DH'ing. He's fourth on the team in OPS, third on the team in slugging percentage, and fifth in HRs. He has a positive OPS for the season (102) and strongly positive for his MLB career (129). Those aren't the MLB stats of a player who should be playing in AAA.
  14. arby58
    Clemens is 3rd on the team in HRs - in far fewer games than Buxton or Larnach. He is 3rd in OPS. He has a 1.1 WAR (also third among non-pitchers). Those aren't 'bad times in Twins Territory' numbers. It looks to me like you care a lot more about batting average than other aspects of the game. That game has passed - an over .700 OPS is about league average. He is far from the Twins offensive problem child.
  15. arby58
    Huh? What is it he has to 'relearn?' He's fourth on the team in OPS among regulars and 3rd in slugging percentage. He absolutely wrecked AAA pitching while he was down (1.330 OPS), and he hits the ball harder than anybody else on the team. Every player will have his ups and downs, but to suggest Wallner should be at AAA is bizarre.
  16. arby58
    Trading a MLB rental for a AAA prospect is exactly what sellers do.
  17. arby58
    What exactly would you expect from a 'wholesale shake up?' A better minor league pipeline? It looks pretty good right now. A bigger payroll? Maybe, but the Twins are and will ever be a mid-level franchise - unless MLB adopts a salary cap, that isn't changing. What mid-level team do you aspire to be that a shake up will lead to? The Rays constantly churn their talent (most fans don't want that) and are competitive, but not much more so than the Twins. The Royals flashed last year, but they are back with the Twins this year. The Guardians also turn over their roster regularly, and this year aren't looking all that great. Yes, the Tigers are now riding high, but look how many years they rode the back end of the American League bus.
  18. arby58
    My sincere apologies. Now back to the scouting report...
  19. arby58
    Why didn't you tell us of your supreme athletic prowess? Changes everything. Here is the scouting report on Lewis after his first season, when he was the Twins top prospect: "Lewis’ plus speed makes him a basestealing threat and his athleticism helps him on the defensive side. He showed he can move seamlessly around the field in the AFL, seeing time at second, third and center field in addition to shortstop. That’s the spot he played exclusively at the alternate camp, working with infield coordinator Billy Boyer and has every chance to stick there long-term, though the Twins know they can plug his bat into any number of positions when it’s deemed ready." Of course, your experience is so much more relevant than scouts who do it for a living. https://www.mlb.com/milb/prospects/2021/twins/royce-lewis-668904
  20. arby58
    While I doubt they will get enough in return to trade Ryan, I also don't necessarily think Buxton is 'towards the end of [his] prime.' The bat speed is still there, the speed is still there, the power is arriving - I happen to think he is just coming into his prime.
  21. arby58
    I don't get too excited about prospects until at least AA - a lot can happen, and the winnowing process from A to AA means generally better, more consistent competition. So, I'll hold off on Ferrer and DeBarge. Raya, though, is starting to get me excited. Iowa is a good hitting club - they have four players in their lineup with an OPS of .900 or more, and he held them to 1 run on 3 hits over 6 innings, with 7 Ks and 1 walk. Four straight starts with an ERA well under 2.00 is impressive. If he's figured things out, his collective ERA for the year is not that important.
  22. arby58
    If you don't understand that two major knee injuries will diminish your defensive ability, I can't help (or reason with) you.
  23. arby58
    Did you miss the fact that he had two major knee injuries? Tony Oliva was a good outfielder (won a Gold Glove) until his knees gave out.
  24. arby58
    Lewis was drafted as a shortstop, as most high high school position picks are. Shortstops and defense are synonymous. I guess I thought you would know that.
  25. arby58
    Lewis was considered a strong athlete with speed. Injuries messed that up, but that was not because of perceived 'Twins preferences.'
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