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arby58

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Everything posted by arby58

  1. arby58
    Of that group, I don't expect to see Priellip in St. Paul - look to the west.
  2. arby58
    Duran wasn't a relief pitcher and stepped right into the role as a rookie. For that matter, the Twins penchant for taking former starting pitchers and making them into relief pitchers is well known - they also did it with Jax, and, of course, Varland. Relief pitching, if you are coming in at the start of an inning with the bases clear, isn't all that different (other than the warm up process) than starting pitching. It can be 'learned' on the fly.
  3. arby58
    I had a boss who used to label this sort of wish for timing 'too cute by half.' It may well be that the Twins will now trade Jeffers, but trying to orchastrate it just right - that's hard. For that matter, if they had reversed the order, maybe the signed catcher realizes he has greater leverage now that the Twins don't have a starting catcher. It's not that easy.
  4. arby58
    Cruz was honorable mention, and both Ryan and Duran are still in their prime. In the article, honorable mentions went to 'current regime' Polanco, Correa, Buxton, and Kepler along with Cruz. Besides, as somebody else pointed out, 5 of the 10 positions are manned by Hall of Famers (you could make it 6 if Thome were the DH).
  5. arby58
    To be fair, you had 60+ years of the former regimes to pick through. Also, if you added a pitching staff, Duran and Ryan may well be on it. Cruz isn't ancient history either. As for the future, Royce Lewis is still only 26 and could get things straightened out - Michael Cuddyer's breakout season was at age 27. Luke Keaschall might also prove to be the real deal.
  6. arby58
    Santana is the #1 starting pitcher. Morris only played 1 year, hard to include that over Santana - or Radke for that matter. Guardado belongs in the bullpen.
  7. arby58
    Only Varland was a starting pitcher at the MLB level for more than one year. Duran never started a regular season game for the Twins. Sands didn''t start a regular season game after his (brief) first year with the Twins. Jax was only a regular starting pitcher his first year with the Twins.
  8. arby58
    That's correct. In 2022, his first year, he ended up with 8 saves and 18 holds, and his outings were (particularly early in the year) often of the 2 inning variety (14 of 57 appearances were for more than 1 inning but never more than 2). It wasn't until his last 5 outings of the season that he was solely coming in at the close of the game.
  9. arby58
    IF the Twins could get Teel for Wallner, I would make that trade - my guess is they could only get Quero, and I'm not feeling the love as much in that case. While you don't like OPS, WAR (which includes fielding metrics) still prefers Wallner over Bell, and the guys in AAA still have something to prove. As for catcher, I'd give Cardenas a good look in spring training and see how he does in AAA - he may be as good as Quero by mid-season.
  10. arby58
    I don't get the disdain for Wallner, particularly in comparison to Bell. Over the last three years, Wallner's OPS+ was 138, 149, 110, and Bell was 101, 100, 110. Wallner's WAR was 2.2, 2.2, and 0.6, while Bell was -0.1, -0.6, and 0.4. Last year, they both had 22 HRs, but Wallner did it in 392 PAs while Bell had 533. Wallner is 28 and controllable, Bell is 33 on a 1-year contract. No way I'm casting off Wallner. Larnach, OTOH . . .
  11. arby58
    At 17, in A ball, he had a .777 OPS. When Joe Mauer was 19, he had a .785 OPS in A ball. They're vastly different hitters - Tait with much more power (even at a younger age) but Mauer with a far better K/W rate. At 20, in A+ ball, Mauer had a .807 OPS - Tait, at 18, .738. I do think you have to cut him some slack for the difference in age and development.
  12. arby58
    MVP in AA, .822 OPS in AAA, peak prospect ranking between 30-44 - doesn't sing superstar to me. If you bought into that, fine - I didn't. Being Europe's greatest baseball talent is sort of like being Africa's - not a lot of competition. Compare with Jenkins, a top 10-15 prospect, who but for injuries was/would be top 5. Kepler, at age 22, playing a full year at AA, put up a .947 OPS. Jenkins, at 20, playing about a half year at AA, put up a .912 and then got promoted to AAA - Kepler did not. My guess is if Jenkins had played a full year at AA, at 20 years old, his OPS would have at least matched Kepler's.
  13. arby58
    It is interesting that other models do not believe this is a bad team, even as currently constructed. I will grant you that these same models have projected it to be better than they ended up being, although the tear down at the end of last year has something to do with that. Maybe new leadership will help. They retooled last year with what I believe was a clear indicator they were looking beyond 2026. They do have a lot valuable pieces.
  14. arby58
    I'm not sure anybody realistically expects an extension. Ryan has two years to prove last year wasn't an aberation. I don't expect it will effect his performance on the field. Asking for a trade doesn't mean you have to be traded. I expect Ryan will be in prove it mode this and next year.
  15. arby58
    RBI is a stat of opportunity - the only way to drive them in is somebody being on base or hitting a HR. Batting average is inferior to OBP. K ratio is fine - and Jenkins is good on that one. Still, OPS is far superior to batting average, and Arraez is the poster child for why that is. Even though he has a high batting average, most of his hits are singles, which takes a lot of additional effort to score him (particularly since he doesn't run very well). It's part of why he is among the league leaders in batting average but not in runs scored.
  16. arby58
    The ASG as a measure of ability is problematic - every team has to have a representative, fan voting is part of the equation, it really only measures performance in half a season, etc. Jhoan Duran didn't make the All Star team but was plenty worthy in at least a couple of years. The Twins developed Spencer Steer, then traded him as part of the Mahle package in 2022, and he promptly was 6th in ROY balloting in the National League in 2023.
  17. arby58
    Ryan was a decent starter but not 'other world' until last year. Lopez has been steadily good but never up to the 4.5 WAR Ryan put up last year - his strongest suit (before last year) was a really good innings eater. In other words, there isn't any reason the Twins can't develop another elite starting pitcher or two. They've got some of their own prospects that should be ready by 2027 or 2028 - Dasan Hill, Charlee Soto, C.J. Culpepper. They've also got Bradley, Abel, Rojas, Gallagher that they acquired in last year's trading sell-off. I don't think the cupboard is bare starting-pitching-wise. It's also possible that they could use Prielipp in relief for a year or two and transition him back to being a starter, if he can build up his arm - ala Santana.
  18. arby58
    Cardenas had an OPS above .800 at both Wichita and St. Paul last year - that would play just fine as a starting catcher in MLB, let alone a backup. I'd give him a long look in spring training.
  19. arby58
    Other than the strikeouts being high, I don't see the resemblance. Emma's strikeouts are attributed to taking too many strikes, while I don't recall that being Sano's MO at the plate. Other than the Ks, they don't really look much like each other. Emma has speed (usually double digits in stolen bases), where Sano's high in the majors in a year was two.
  20. arby58
    He's played some in the outfield at each minor league stop along the way to MLB, with the only exception being AAA in 2025, when he was coming back from Tommy John surgery.
  21. arby58
    While K rate may be a concern, it's been pointed out by others that, among others that turned out all right, Aaron Judge had a high strikeout rate in the minor leagues as well.
  22. arby58
    I went through the list of international signings on Spotrac, and they list 17 pitchers in this year's Minnesota Twins class - although most of these were quite a ways down the list in terms of dollar amount.
  23. arby58
    My non-Nick personal opinion is if there is a 2027 season, the Twins could be in 'legit championship window.' This could be their starting line-up: 1. Buxton RF 2. Keaschall 1B 3. Jenkins CF 4. Wallner/Roden DH 5. Lewis 3B 6. Emma LF 7. Lee 2B 8. C 9. Culpepper SS Martin is the utility player, maybe DeBarge. with Gonzalez and Mendez in the outfield. Starting Pitching: 1. Ryan 2. Lopez 3. Matthews 4. SWR 5.Bradley Bullpen: 1. Sands 2. Funderburk 3. Prielipp 4. Festa 5. Rojas 6. Reya Obviously, Catcher is a short-term issue (Tait probably 2028), but the pitching staff looks really solid. Ober can be traded for a catcher(?), and there are some other chips as well, especially since Abel isn't slotted here. If he performs, maybe SWR is also a chip.
  24. arby58
    I agree, that is a problem - however, the OP's claim was that the Twins didn't develop major league players. Injuries have derailed many a player who had developed into a MLB talent. The other developed player I mentioned was Ober, and he has a career WAR of 9.2. For that matter, SWR has a WAR of 4.0.
  25. arby58
    No, please - I take it all back: Ryan would be no better than the number two starter on every team in baseball, Royce Lewis (career OPS+ of 109) and Matt Wallner (career OPS+ of 127) are barely major leaguers, and we'd be lucky to get a relief pitcher for Walker Jenkins. For that matter, Twins fans should envy the collective assets of teams like the Colorado Rockies and Las Angeles Angels.
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