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arby58

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Everything posted by arby58

  1. arby58
    Duran, Jax, and Varland are just the latest in a long line of Twins relief pitchers that were converted starting pitchers. Some of their stellar predecessors were Eddie Guardado, Rick Aguillera, Glen Perkins, Latroy Hawkins, and Joe Nathan. About the only decent 'relief pitcher only' pitchers they've developed in recent years were Ryan Pressly and Taylor Rodgers. They've got plenty of promising arms in the minors. My bet is on at least two of Raya, Festa, and Prielipp playing important roles in the bullpen.
  2. arby58
    This is a somewhat different debt story from what I have seen elsewhere, which is that the debt was largely from non-baseball real estate losses (albeit tied to COVID). As a finance professional, this seems more plausible - if the $300-$500 million debt is accurate, it would be hard to rack that up because of 'continuing to pay players and staff' during COVID. Yes, the lost TV revenue was an issue, but they also reduced payroll in the aftermath. I'm still betting a lot of the debt is non-baseball-related businesses.
  3. arby58
    That's simply not true - review the game logs. He played in 37 games. Game 2, 2/4; Game 6, 1/4; Game 10, 1/3; Game 11, 2/3; Game 12, 1/1; Game 15, 1/3; Game 16, 1/3; Game 17, 1/4; Game 18, 1/4; Game 23, 2/3; Game 25, 2/3; Game 26, 2/3; Game 27, 2/3; Game 30 1/4; Game 32, 1/4; Game 34, 2/3. Yes, he had a nice stretch games 23-27, but he also had a nice stretch games 10-15 and ok Games 30-34. He did finish the year on an 0 for 10 stretch, but what player hasn't?
  4. arby58
    Arraez had a .292 batting average last year, and a .327 OBP. OBP 'overcomplicates' things? That's nonsense logic - getting on base is a key part of scoring runs. Bell had a .237 batting average and a .325 OBP. In essence, they were on base about the same percentage of the time. Are you seriously suggesting that Arraez was as valuable offensively when 77% of his hits were singles, and only 4% were HRS, compared to Bell's 64% singles and 20% HRs? Math is beautiful too, and baseball has lots of math imbedded in it.
  5. arby58
    I don't understand why people aren't giving Jackson credit for a pretty good 2025. The Twins don't need to 'fix' him, they just need him to continue to perform at his 2025 level.
  6. arby58
    Career, yes, but not last year. Granted, it was only 100 plate appearances, but Jackson had an OPS+ of 111, an OPS of .763. He also had 5 HRs and scored 17 runs - that's pretty efficient production. Vasquez, in contrast, had an OPS+ of 52, OPS of .545. He also had more than double the plate appearances (214) yet scored fewer runs (14) and hit fewer HRs (3). Last year, really no comparison.
  7. arby58
    I don't 'get' all the complaining about advanced analytics - you look under the hood at what are acknowledged as the great players, and their underlying analytics are similarly great. What about Arraez' performance stands out to you? The .292 BA last year? It only translated into 66 runs scored - that's about as many as Trevor Larnach last year, and Larnach had far fewer plate appearances.
  8. arby58
    Why? Arraez' OPS+ last year was 99, Bell's was 110. Arraez' 'advantage' is a higher batting average that supposedly translates into OBP - except last year it wasn't. Arraez was .327, and Bell was .325. Arraez doesn't run well, so all those singles take a lot of additional effort to translate into runs. Arraez last year had 675 plate appearances and scored 66 runs - a run per 10.2 platea appearances. Bell had 533 and scored 54 - a run for every 9.9 plate appearances. OK, so maybe all those hits drive in runs? Bell actually had 2 RBIs more than Arraez in far fewer plate apperances. Then there is the difference in HRs - Bell had 22 versus Arraez' 8 in far less plate appearances. I 'get' that people like to watch him battle against pitchers, but the one thing he should do is score runs - and he doesn't really do all that well in that category.
  9. arby58
    I guess I'm missing your point. You have both Keaschall and Lee starting for the Twins, and Wallner most certainly is next year as well. So 3 out of 4? Seems pretty good odds. If you were expecting them all to be superstars, then your world is different than mine.
  10. arby58
    He was the Twins minor league player of the year - and the OP is talking about trading into the same posiiton AND giving up our best starting pitcher to do it. If I'm doing that, I want it to a position where we don't have an heir apparent, and that is 1B or Catcher.
  11. arby58
    If Culpepper is expected to be ready in late 2026 or 2027, what is the point of trading Ryan for a 'near ready middle infielder? I'm not even sure a very good/major league ready middle infielder would be my target IF the Twins were to trade Ryan (and recent events suggest they are not). I'd be looking for a young 1B 'thumper' or catcher.
  12. arby58
    To be fair, that isn't what the OP implied. It is a pretty common move when a shortstop doesn't have the arm or range (paging Jorge Polanco, Xander Bogaerts, and Jonathan Villar). I, too, was much more comfortable with Lee at 2B - and probably the Twins as well. They didn't play him regularly at SS until it was absolutely necessary. He started 15 games at SS prior to 8-1 (and 5 of those were while Correa was on the injured list), and 49 from then until the end of the season.
  13. arby58
    Drew Burress is an inch taller than Kirby Puckett was, and he turned out ok. You've got to like that both Burress and Gracia walked more than they struck out last year, and Lebron's K rate was a bit higher than optimal. That said, the Twins love drafting shortstops, so Lebron probably gets the nod - and the prediction lists I've seen (MLB.com, ESPN, Bleacher Report) have the Twins taking the Alabama shortstop.
  14. arby58
    You think there were better options in AAA? They called a bunch of them up, and didn't get stellar performance from them either. Nearly every Twin hitter (with the exception of Buxton and Martin) regressed in 2025. Players are responsible for the playing aspect of the game. It's been said by far smarter baseball people than you or me that managers get too much credit when a team wins, and too much blame when it loses.
  15. arby58
    Agree about Culpepper. Fedko scuffled through his first year in A ball and his first year at AA. Not sure a GM is going to take a 26 year old outfielder on the strength of performing better at his second shot at those levels. I will grant you he did well last year at AAA, but it was only 164 ABs. I wouldn't be shocked if someone took a flyer on him, but I'd bet the under.
  16. arby58
    Based on past experience and outcomes, the Twins don't value high end relief pitchers the way they do starting pitching. It appears they believe you can take a starting pitcher who can't quite make the grade in that role and make them a stand-out relief pitcher. That has been the case recently (Duran, Jax, Varland) and in the past as well (Nathan, Aguilerra, Guardado, Hawkins). Some of these were sudden moves - Hawkins was solely a starting pitcher his first four years with the Twins and then never started another game in a very long major league career. Guardado was primarily a starting pitcher his first two years with the Twins, transitioned to the bullpen in year three and then didn't start another game between 1996 and 2009. My guess is they will experiment with relief pitcher roles for at least a couple of their young starting pitching, thinking of Festa, Raya, Prielipp, and maybe Matthews. Not all will transition to the bullpen, of course - they will need some starting pitching ready at AAA.
  17. arby58
    Are you his uncle? Even in a good year (2024), he struggled with control - 40 walks in 79 IP, leading to a WHIP of 1.316, and that was his good year. Last year was dreadful, with 68 walks in 73 IP and an 'other world' WHIP of 2.068 - not surprisingly, his ERA was north of 7. I don't see how the Twins could have possibly protected a 25 year old pitcher after a year like that. Where would be the accountability?
  18. arby58
    I'm also happy for him, and agree the end result was not nearly primarily his fault. That said, where do the players 'fault' lie in lack of performance? I'd say the general decline in performance in 2025 was as much due to the players as anything, and they should be held accountable. Maybe 10% Baldelli, 45% front office (including ownership) and 45% players.
  19. arby58
    SWR is 25 years old - there most certainly is room for improvement. I 'get' that Lawler has only had 97 ABs, but after that amount of ABs, Luke Keaschall was earning playing time and, in about twice Lawler's ABs was ending the season with 128 OPS+, .827 OPS and 2.0 WAR. Lawler's 97 ABs don't exactly inspire confidence - .165 BA, .478 OPS, 33 OPS+ and -0.5 WAR. Nor does his injury history (from Google AI): Arizona Diamondbacks prospect Jordan Lawlar has had a significant injury history early in his pro career, starting with a 2021 shoulder labrum tear requiring surgery, followed by a 2022 scapula fracture (from a HBP) and notable 2024 issues including thumb ligament surgery (UCL) and recurrent hamstring strains, limiting his playing time despite high potential, making health a major concern.
  20. arby58
    Brooks Lee was #31 in 2023, and Taj Bradley was #20. Meanwhile, all SWR has done is be a solid starting pitcher the last two years in MLB, not AAA.
  21. arby58
    He's had three good years in a row - OPS+ of 122, 119, and 125.
  22. arby58
    Clemens had his moments last year, but his numbers aren't 'ok to pretty good returns' for 1B. O'Hern's 125 OPS+, .803 OPS and 2.4 WAR are head and shoulders above Clemens' 94, .715, and 1.0. We can convert some starters to relief pitchers (it's how Duran, Jax, and Varland got good, not to mention Nathan, Aguilera, and their current bullpen coach). We've got plenty of utility options, but we don't have a 'thumper' at 1B, and the Twins lineup needs one.
  23. arby58
    I will grant you that Lawler has strong stats at AAA over two years - that still doesn't strike me as sufficient for SWR, who has decent stats in MLB over the last two years and is still only 25. Maybe Ober, definitely one of hte others.
  24. arby58
    Maybe they could/should/would trade from surplus starting pitching, but the four players suggested have 'yuck' all over them. Casas last year was -0.9 WAR, .580 OPS and OPS+ of 62. He makes Clemens look like a superstar. Lawler was even worse, with a 51 OPS+ and .545 OPS. He is negative WAR both for last year and his career. Vientos was closer, with 'only' a -0.2 WAR, 97 OPS+ and .702 OPS. Acuna was 63 OPS+ AND .567 OPS. Is this really the best you could get for Ober (1.1 WAR) or SWR (2.2 WAR)? I sure hope not.
  25. arby58
    The odds are not in the Twins favor. It's nice to dream, though.
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