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arby58

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Everything posted by arby58

  1. arby58
    Right - and you can't blame Correa on Twins development staff. He was a former MVP, Rookie of the Year, and All Star when the Twins signed him at 28 years old.
  2. arby58
    I've got a question in on Trade Rumors chat with paid subscribers. I (Falvey) asked: I need a catcher or IB to frontline a deal for Duran or Jax. Any takers? I'll post the response if they answer the question during the chat.
  3. arby58
    This reminds me that yesterday there was a piece on Trade Rumors about the Twins Controllable Pitchers. A Phillies trade was proposed, and a Philliies fan's remark was 'you kinda owe us one on Kody Clemens haha.'
  4. arby58
    Yeah, the juice isn't worth the squeeze on that last four, maybe Larnach more than the other three, but not much more.
  5. arby58
    He had a great May, a not so great June, but he has bounced back and had a pretty decent July. He entered July with a .774 OPS and a .472 Slugging percentage on the year. In July, he has raised his OPS to .792 and his slugging percentage to .503. He also has 3 HR and 12 RBIs. I seem to recall you making this post awhile back - maybe you need to refresh your numbers and your opinion? If the Twins had more players with his stats, their offense would look a lot better.
  6. arby58
    They're both young and relatively advanced, but if Crawford is the headliner, do we really need another outfield prospect - unless you think Jenkins, Emma, and Gonzalez are all going to flame out? Granted Anthony is a 1B, but he's mid-year 2027 for the majors.
  7. arby58
    That would do it for me, and it seems about fair in terms of value. IF we're giving up Jax, this is probably the best the Twins will get - a young MLB ready catcher.
  8. arby58
    Baldwin is WAY too valuable for the Braves to give him up for a marginal outfielder (or a package of marginal talents). This year, Baldwin has already put up a MLB 2.3 WAR (only Buxton on the Twins is better than that). He also has a 131 OPS+ and is 24 years old. It would take a lot to pry him loose.
  9. arby58
    You only made a case for keeping Martin - he of the -1.0 WAR and 88+ OPS last year. Here's a crazy idea: put Clemens at 2B, keep him there, and get somebody to play 1B. Clemens has a +9 defensive runs saved at 2B this year, while Martin was 0 last year. Meanwhile, Clemens is 1.1 WAR and 112 OPS+ this year. He also has 12 HRs in 161 at bats. In 233 ABs last year, Martin hit 1 HR. Meanwhile, both Julien and Miranda are out of options - why would anybody trade for a couple of AAA players at this point in the season?
  10. arby58
    All that translated into a -1.0 WAR and an 88 OPS+ last year - not to mention absolutely brutal in the outfield. We don't need another 2B with those stats - we have at least a couple already. Where else would you play him and be comfortable with his defense? Keep in mind he was -30 in defensive runs saved in the outfield last year. That's not good.
  11. arby58
    I agree with your assessment of Kiersey, but Clemens has been a nice bargain pick-up. He's third among the Twins position players with a 1.1 OPS (only trailing Buxton and Bader), has an .816 OPS and 12 HRs in just 161 AB. Those are keeper stats.
  12. arby58
    There's an old joke about first prize in a raffle being a week's stay in Cleveland, and second prize being two weeks. I sort of feel that way about these three. None excels at a position defensively, they all have holes in their offensive game, and neither Miranda or Julien are fleet of foot. I also don't buy Martin as a replacement for Castro unless his outfield defense has improved considerably. FWIW, the Baseball Trade Simulator gives both Julien and Miranda a trade 'surplus' value of 0. Martin is at least marginally better (2.3). Garbage in, garbage out.
  13. arby58
    That would be closer - interestingly,, the Baseball Trade Simulator has Wallner's value at 27.2 and Larnach at 5.6, which is just about the same as Cruz (33.5). I'm still not sold on giving up on Wallner, who, current struggles notwithstanding, has a better OPS+ than Cruz, both for this year and his career. That said, you point out other benefits for Cruz (speed and defense) that are also important. My guess is Pittsburgh says no to this trade, but I would probably make it if I were the Twins.
  14. arby58
    My first take was that Larnach had marginal trade value, but this is decently researched, and it does appear some of the contenders could have a need. I believe that Larnach and Wallner are somewhat interchangeable (but Wallner has a far higher ceiling), so he is the one I would dangle.
  15. arby58
    Seems like a weird deal. First, Cruz is performing much better at the MLB level than Larnach. Emma actually has a greater trade surplus value according to the Baseball Trade Simulator (Cruz 33.5, Emma 38.5), but I don't totally buy that, given Emma's injury issues. When you also toss in Wallner, though, the deal becomes horribly lop-sided, and not in the Twins favor. Cruz is a nice player, but you don't give up that much outfield capital for a player with a 1.2 WAR and 103 OPS+ in 2025.
  16. arby58
    I"m not sure about moving Willi netting a larger return, because he is purely a rental.
  17. arby58
    Yeah, I made a post yesterday highlighting their lack of speed and athleticism and also mentioned this manifests itself in poor defense. I do think the next group of emerging minor leaguers (Keaschall, Culpepper, Jenkins, Emma) have more speed/are more athletic than the Wallner-Larnach-Lee-post injuries Lewis cohort. Probably not that impactful for 2026, but 2027 is possible (ala the Tigers turnaround) - which is why I would be totally against a pitching fire sale that included Ryan and both Duran and Jax.
  18. arby58
    For a team that lost its numbers 2, 3, and 5 starters for an extended period of time, the Twins are still not a horrid team. Many of us (including yours truly) expected better, but I also didn't expect them to lose 60% of their starting rotation for June, July and probably part of August either. I don't think all the things you mention have to happen for them to return to play-off competition next year. Probably the one that would be the biggest boost would be Correa returning to form - but I also think this is probably the least likely. Yes, they need a least a couple of the young bats to get better. That said, the Twins may well be a 'pitching first' team for the next couple of years (I highly doubt Jenkins will be ready next year for starters,). What they really need is Ryan, Lopez, and Ober to be healthy and in top form, and at least a couple of the 'promising' arms (SWR. Festa, Matthews, Adams, Morris, Raya) to emerge with more consistency.
  19. arby58
    Having other options doesn't mean they are optimal for a team in 'win now' mode. Here are the trade values from that 'other site' for the players you name (numbers rounded up/down): Santana: 6 Bird: 7 Esteven: -3 Detmars: 18 Fairbanks: 6 Bednar: 7 Other than Detmars, none of these are remotely close to the value assigned to Duran (25) and Jax (26). BTW, I incorrectly rounded Duran in a previous post, but I just verified all of these. Here is a quote from another popular site, Trade Rumors, relating to the Twins' Duran and Jax. "It's a steep ask [2 top 100 prospects for either of them] but an understandable one [emphasis added]. Both Duran and Jax have power arsenals and elite bat-missing ability that's coupled with good command. Both are affordable. Duran is earning $4.125 million in his first season of arbitration eligibility. Jax is earning $2.365 million." Yeah, the Twins have leverage.
  20. arby58
    Baseball Trade Simulator would not like it: They give Crawford a 16 surplus and Anthony a 2. Jax is a 26.
  21. arby58
    You're equivocating., I gave you hard data - that you asked for - and now it's ummm. You think other teams have leverage because there are other relief pitchers out there, fine - but the 'Twins Two' seem to get a lot of ink from commentators (you guys are commentators too, right? You don't think they have probative value?). I suspect that some team is going to give the Twins what they want for one of them. If they don't, I'm also good with them not selling low - prospects are just that.
  22. arby58
    Excuse me? I pointed out that two of the Cubs top prospects - that you named - are basically the same value as either of them? I might as well stop here.
  23. arby58
    I am a subscriber. Current values for both Duran and Jax are 26. Alcantara is 11. Ballesteros is 19. That said, my schooling recollection is that leverage decreases as you approach the fulcrum. The Cubs and other teams that want something NOW are losing leverage - the Twins have these guys for two more years, and they can shop them next year or in the off-season. They have the leverage. They don't have to settle for present value.
  24. arby58
    The current value of Berrios was just an observation that starting pitching isn't the be all and end all - sometimes that doesn't work out. You made the claim that Berrios, because he pitched a lot of innings, was more valuable than a reliever who does not. Ergo, looking at the 'trade value' of the Twins starting pitchers versus these two relievers is appropriate. If you don't like the trade simulator, maybe TD should start their own - it seems to have a pretty good paid following, and as a private sector finance guy, I tend to think that is a pretty good indicator of value. As for past trades: who cares? This is a specific situation with two relief pitchers with great lock-down value, controlled for multiple years. If no team will give up two top-100 prospects (and, let's face it, there is a big difference between numbers 1-10 and 90-100), I'd just keep them around. One thing that may be different than some other years: high salaries are REALLY high, and these guys aren't it. If you are playing around with revenue sharing, you'd love to have these guys.
  25. arby58
    While I agree with what we need (primarily a catcher), I don't think it is fair to suggest a long-time baseball pro who has had his share of success in the industry 'doesn't know what we really need.' I mean, c'mon, man.
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