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arby58

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Everything posted by arby58

  1. arby58
    This didn't age well.
  2. arby58
    20 game winners these days are rare, and not that relevant for a variety of reasons. Last year, Joe Ryan ranked 11th in MLB in WAR, 9th in WHIP, 18th in ERA, 12th in wins (if that still matters to you), 15th in Ks and 12th in K/9 innings. Given that there are 30 MLB teams, those rankings sound a lot closer to Ace than 'traditional number two starters.'
  3. arby58
    Brock Stewart and Danny Coloumbe are cases where they picked up relief pitchers that 'figured it out.'
  4. arby58
    The article doesn't touch on the fact that Valdez is an elite ground ball pitcher. The Twins infield does not inspire confidence in support of that type of pitcher. If I were Valdez, the Twins would be close to the bottom of my list of places to go - probably after high altitude Colorado and the AAA infield in Sacramento.
  5. arby58
    Polanco was terrible his first year with Seattle, so he didn't 'instantly make the team worse' unless you were referring to the Mariners. Yes, he was much better the next year, but by then Twins fans would have rebelled against him. Besides, the trade was Topa and Gonzalez as well. If Gonzalez turns into a good MLB player, the trade will not look so bad.
  6. arby58
    I would put the Nelson Cruz signing in the 'best' category. Not only was he a very productive offensive player, but he provided the capital necessary to acquire Joe Ryan.
  7. arby58
    Law is the most pessimistic of the rankings I have seen. Others rank much higher (if not among the highest-ranked): ESPN, Kiley McDaniel (1/29/26) has the Twins 8th. One thing that is pretty common in these rankings is Milwaukee (1), Cleveland (2), and Detroit (6) rank better. Bleacher Report (9/26.25, after September callups) has the Twins 7th. The Tigers (5) and Brewers (6) are ahead, with Cleveland next in line after the Twins (8th). Frangraphs 2025 update had the Twins 12th, with Milwaukee 4th, Cleveland 5th, and Detroit 9th. Prospects 1500 had the Twins 9th, with Milwaukee 1, Detroit 3, and Cleveland 7. I'm sure there are others, but Law is the only one I pulled from with them in the bottom half of the rankings.
  8. arby58
    So he's never played 1B but you expect his 1B defense to be better than his below average OF defense. Got it.
  9. arby58
    Realistically, the Twins' greatest needs are C and 1B - not much coming up the pipeline in the foreseeable future. If I were going to deal Ryan, it would be for a package headed by the Orioles Samuel Basallo. He's currently the #8 ranked prospect by MLB.com, and he signed an 8-year, $67 million contract extension last year. That's a significant commitment, but if Ryan is traded away and Jeffers leaves, it more than covers it. According to the trade simulator, it is fairly close - Ryan has surplus value of 51.7, and Basallo 47.1. So Baltimore throws in another prospect or two. I think the Twins would seriously consider that trade.
  10. arby58
    First, they acquired him for a 26 year old 5'5" utility infielder who had a .701 OPS in AAA last year - not exactly a star in the making. Second, they acquired him before they signed Caratini, and it is likely they did not consider signing him a 'sure thing' so needed a backup catcher. Third, he's making the minimum, which is not 'millions of dollars.' Finally, if they lose him via waivers, the final outcome is casting off Eeles, who had no real future with the Twins anyway.
  11. arby58
    While the idea has merit, you are overvaluing Lawler, at least according to the Baseball Trade Values Trade Simulator. They give Lawler a surplus value of 3.6. Here are the surplus trade values for the Twins players you mentioned: Martin: 9.6 Roden: 9.4 Festa: 11.5 Soto: 10.8 Culpepper: 4.2 (you're at least in the ballpark with him alone) Larnach: 2.0 (yeah, that's the corner outfielder the Twins picked up a $4+ million option for). Sigh.
  12. arby58
    If they play him even 1 inning at 1B they will have played him more, considering he's played zero innings at 1B in the minors.
  13. arby58
    I didn't say it was a good decision, but they DFA'd him, and the article suggests he is a possible bullpen piece, which makes no sense whatsoever.
  14. arby58
    Then why would you remove him and open him up to a claim by every other team? That dog won't hunt.
  15. arby58
    Agree that there are likely moves yet to be made. Disagree on Ohl being part of the picture - or why would they remove him from the 40 man roster?
  16. arby58
    The Twins front office can't make this trade and continue to claim they are in 'win now' mode. I wouldn't be adverse to trading Jeffers, as they have two MLB catchers now on the roster, but the return has to be better than this.
  17. arby58
    That is IF they get improvement from Wallner and Lewis AND a full season of Keaschall. I'm fine with the Bell signing, but he's not going to get them there by himself. You also had a career year from BB last year. Besides the offense and pitching, I'm not sold on a defense with Lee full time at SS, Keaschall at 2B and either Bell regularly at 1B or Wallner regularly in RF. None of them is even league average. That's why I hope Emma (or Jenkins, I suppose) can play regularly in the OF and hope of all hopes, Culpepper becomes the second half starting SS.
  18. arby58
    I'm in general not a pessimist about the Twins - I agree they will have a very solid starting rotation, and I think they can put together the pieces in the bullpen. That said, it is hard for me to agree they will be '5-7 in runs scored in the league this year.' Last year they were 10th in the AL and 23rd in MLB. Sure, maybe they get bounceback years from Lewis and Wallner and a full year from Keaschall, but otherwise they aren't notably better, other than maybe 1B, and their defense is still questionable. I'm already on record taking the under on 91 losses, but I think they'll be slightly below .500 on the year. That said, if Culpepper, Jenkins, and Emma make regular progress, I like the looks of the team in 2027 - even if it is a shortened season.
  19. arby58
    I agree with Culpepper at number two IF he can handle MLB SS. I predict he starts at St. Paul and, IF all goes well, he is headed to Target field after the All Star break. My bet is Prielipp breaks camp out of the bullpen - they've been signalling that for a while now, and given his injury history, it makes sense. That said, a relief pitcher isn't going to be your number two prospect. Tait is a long ways away. IF he isn't on the injured list, Emma is most likely of the everyday prospects to break camp as a corner outfielder/CF when Buxton needs a break. He's a far better athlete than Gonzalez, and this team needs athleticism. If this comes to pass, the Twins are going to deal some of their surplus of corner outfielders (don't expect much in return, unless they deal Wallner, which I doubt). I'd expect Wallner to get a lot of time at DH and they trust Bell to handle 1B on a semi-regular basis.
  20. arby58
    I would take the bet on this being less than a 91 loss team. Players that need a bounceback for their income future (Lewis, Wallner, Lee). Lots of good 'hungry' talent. A likely stable starting pitching staff. You can make a bullpen on the fly with enough good/failed starting pitchers with high MPH and another pitch (i.e.,, they have a lot of them).
  21. arby58
    While I agree the current roster configuration is suboptimal, I would also note that in 2023, the Michael Taylor trade was made on 1/23 (two days from now), Donovan Solano was signed on 2/23, and Castro's contract was purchased from the St. Paul Saints on 3/29. Oh, and Pablo Lopez was added via trade on 1/20. I know the author caveats this, but that caveat is important: I'm not sure this analysis is ripe for prime time. I'd like it better in terms of comparison to the actual 2026 roster the Twins trot out.
  22. arby58
    They 'stashed' him after offering him to every other MLB team willing to put in a waiver claim. He's nothing more than AAA filler, regardless of who the team is (or somebody like the Rockies would have taken a flyer on him). It's simply nothing to get worked up about.
  23. arby58
    They both have options, so they can both be stashed at AAA. Fitzgerald was so valuable that no other team claimed him off waivers. Not too shocking, given he is 31 years old (2 years older than Gray) never made the majors until mop up time last season with the Twins, and in 7 minor league seasons put up a .770 OPS.
  24. arby58
    ?? In the majors, he has played 80 innings at 2B, 73 at SS, 65 at 3B, and 63 at 1B.
  25. arby58
    I doubt Houston will hit enough to become a regular MLB SS. I don't understand the fascination with Keaschall at first base. He's only played 13 games there in the minors and MLB - far more at 2B and the outfield. Besides, his bat profiles better in those positions than 1B.
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