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arby58

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Everything posted by arby58

  1. arby58
    There's an old joke about first prize in a raffle being a week's stay in Cleveland, and second prize being two weeks. I sort of feel that way about these three. None excels at a position defensively, they all have holes in their offensive game, and neither Miranda or Julien are fleet of foot. I also don't buy Martin as a replacement for Castro unless his outfield defense has improved considerably. FWIW, the Baseball Trade Simulator gives both Julien and Miranda a trade 'surplus' value of 0. Martin is at least marginally better (2.3). Garbage in, garbage out.
  2. arby58
    That would be closer - interestingly,, the Baseball Trade Simulator has Wallner's value at 27.2 and Larnach at 5.6, which is just about the same as Cruz (33.5). I'm still not sold on giving up on Wallner, who, current struggles notwithstanding, has a better OPS+ than Cruz, both for this year and his career. That said, you point out other benefits for Cruz (speed and defense) that are also important. My guess is Pittsburgh says no to this trade, but I would probably make it if I were the Twins.
  3. arby58
    My first take was that Larnach had marginal trade value, but this is decently researched, and it does appear some of the contenders could have a need. I believe that Larnach and Wallner are somewhat interchangeable (but Wallner has a far higher ceiling), so he is the one I would dangle.
  4. arby58
    Seems like a weird deal. First, Cruz is performing much better at the MLB level than Larnach. Emma actually has a greater trade surplus value according to the Baseball Trade Simulator (Cruz 33.5, Emma 38.5), but I don't totally buy that, given Emma's injury issues. When you also toss in Wallner, though, the deal becomes horribly lop-sided, and not in the Twins favor. Cruz is a nice player, but you don't give up that much outfield capital for a player with a 1.2 WAR and 103 OPS+ in 2025.
  5. arby58
    I"m not sure about moving Willi netting a larger return, because he is purely a rental.
  6. arby58
    Yeah, I made a post yesterday highlighting their lack of speed and athleticism and also mentioned this manifests itself in poor defense. I do think the next group of emerging minor leaguers (Keaschall, Culpepper, Jenkins, Emma) have more speed/are more athletic than the Wallner-Larnach-Lee-post injuries Lewis cohort. Probably not that impactful for 2026, but 2027 is possible (ala the Tigers turnaround) - which is why I would be totally against a pitching fire sale that included Ryan and both Duran and Jax.
  7. arby58
    For a team that lost its numbers 2, 3, and 5 starters for an extended period of time, the Twins are still not a horrid team. Many of us (including yours truly) expected better, but I also didn't expect them to lose 60% of their starting rotation for June, July and probably part of August either. I don't think all the things you mention have to happen for them to return to play-off competition next year. Probably the one that would be the biggest boost would be Correa returning to form - but I also think this is probably the least likely. Yes, they need a least a couple of the young bats to get better. That said, the Twins may well be a 'pitching first' team for the next couple of years (I highly doubt Jenkins will be ready next year for starters,). What they really need is Ryan, Lopez, and Ober to be healthy and in top form, and at least a couple of the 'promising' arms (SWR. Festa, Matthews, Adams, Morris, Raya) to emerge with more consistency.
  8. arby58
    Having other options doesn't mean they are optimal for a team in 'win now' mode. Here are the trade values from that 'other site' for the players you name (numbers rounded up/down): Santana: 6 Bird: 7 Esteven: -3 Detmars: 18 Fairbanks: 6 Bednar: 7 Other than Detmars, none of these are remotely close to the value assigned to Duran (25) and Jax (26). BTW, I incorrectly rounded Duran in a previous post, but I just verified all of these. Here is a quote from another popular site, Trade Rumors, relating to the Twins' Duran and Jax. "It's a steep ask [2 top 100 prospects for either of them] but an understandable one [emphasis added]. Both Duran and Jax have power arsenals and elite bat-missing ability that's coupled with good command. Both are affordable. Duran is earning $4.125 million in his first season of arbitration eligibility. Jax is earning $2.365 million." Yeah, the Twins have leverage.
  9. arby58
    Baseball Trade Simulator would not like it: They give Crawford a 16 surplus and Anthony a 2. Jax is a 26.
  10. arby58
    You're equivocating., I gave you hard data - that you asked for - and now it's ummm. You think other teams have leverage because there are other relief pitchers out there, fine - but the 'Twins Two' seem to get a lot of ink from commentators (you guys are commentators too, right? You don't think they have probative value?). I suspect that some team is going to give the Twins what they want for one of them. If they don't, I'm also good with them not selling low - prospects are just that.
  11. arby58
    Excuse me? I pointed out that two of the Cubs top prospects - that you named - are basically the same value as either of them? I might as well stop here.
  12. arby58
    I am a subscriber. Current values for both Duran and Jax are 26. Alcantara is 11. Ballesteros is 19. That said, my schooling recollection is that leverage decreases as you approach the fulcrum. The Cubs and other teams that want something NOW are losing leverage - the Twins have these guys for two more years, and they can shop them next year or in the off-season. They have the leverage. They don't have to settle for present value.
  13. arby58
    The current value of Berrios was just an observation that starting pitching isn't the be all and end all - sometimes that doesn't work out. You made the claim that Berrios, because he pitched a lot of innings, was more valuable than a reliever who does not. Ergo, looking at the 'trade value' of the Twins starting pitchers versus these two relievers is appropriate. If you don't like the trade simulator, maybe TD should start their own - it seems to have a pretty good paid following, and as a private sector finance guy, I tend to think that is a pretty good indicator of value. As for past trades: who cares? This is a specific situation with two relief pitchers with great lock-down value, controlled for multiple years. If no team will give up two top-100 prospects (and, let's face it, there is a big difference between numbers 1-10 and 90-100), I'd just keep them around. One thing that may be different than some other years: high salaries are REALLY high, and these guys aren't it. If you are playing around with revenue sharing, you'd love to have these guys.
  14. arby58
    While I agree with what we need (primarily a catcher), I don't think it is fair to suggest a long-time baseball pro who has had his share of success in the industry 'doesn't know what we really need.' I mean, c'mon, man.
  15. arby58
    The trade simulator website would beg to differ. They suggest both Jax and Duran are among the Twins top 10 most valuable trade assets. NONE of the Twins starting pitchers minus Ryan have as much value to them as Jax and Duran. Interestingly, given his salary 'anchor' Berrios currently has a negative value of -26.
  16. arby58
    The comparison is not that relevant. The Twins only had control of Berrios for one year, as opposed to the two for either Duran or Jax. Besides, they are seen as dominant relief pitchers, given their K ratios. Berrios was a solid starting pitcher, but a 7-5 record with a 3.48 ERA when the Twins traded him doesn't scream dominance. Absolutely bizarre to suggest the Twins give up two relief pitchers that are, league consensus, dominant late inning closer types for one top-100 prospect each.
  17. arby58
    I'm reading directly from the ESPN article: "...teams look at what the Twins are asking for to acquire Duran or Jax - at least two top-100-caliber prospects..." Nowhere does he suggest they would trade them both for just two top-100 prospects. Why would they? If Duran and Jax were prospects, they would be of the 'can't miss' variety - how are they getting better by trading two of their (arguably) best five players for (maybe they miss) prospects? Yes, two quality prospects for one of them, but nowhere near close enough for both.
  18. arby58
    It's hard to claim that the season was lost in April, when they had a 29-22 record on May 24th and were still 5 games over .500 at the end of May. The season most assuredly was lost in June, and that is pretty far removed from the end of 2024.
  19. arby58
    All of the above, as the OP suggests, has to be the 'most right' answer. It's a long season, and it is rarely just one thing that lets a team down in the 40 or so games that make or break a team. I think the FO over-estimated the emerging pitching at AAA, and the team took its lumps in June after 3/5ths of the rotation went down. Further, there was an expectation that some of the young members of the offensive core (Wallner, Larnach, Lee, Lewis, Miranda) would continue to progress. The thing about young players is their advancement is seldom linear, and each has demonstrated that in their 'own special way.' It is frustrating to see the Twins snatch defeat from the jaws of victory ala yesterday vs. the Dodgers, and plenty of neutral third-party observers mention the team's talent level (in a good way/bad way since they are not rising up to it). Yes, some of that is on the manager, but a lot is also on the players - ultimately, they, not the manager, have the most impact on the outcome of a game. The thing that primarily concerns me about the existing core is the lack of overall speed and athleticism (Buxton notwithstanding). The Twins are near the bottom of the league in stolen bases, and they don't do very well in fielding analytics either. My hope is that some of the 'next wave' of emerging players (Emma, Jenkins, Keaschall, Culpepper) will reverse that trend.
  20. arby58
    Why would 'cleaning house' lead to any greater expectation of success? The biggest problem that the Twins (and probably 20 of 30 MLB teams) face is the lack of a salary cap. Joe Ryan is an example: he's a great pitcher that they made into one, and in two years, he will sign for an ungodly amount of money with the Yankees-Mets-Red Sox-Phillies-Dodgers etc. So, teams like the Twins have to hope against hope that prospects they acquire for the stud players they already have will meet expectations. Hello? They don't all that often - and it isn't just a problem with the Twins. If you line up the records of all MLB teams in the last (pick a number) 5 or 10 years, the Twins are far from the developmental basket case some make them out to be.
  21. arby58
    I get that (and made the same point on another thread about his stock never being higher). That said, just how good he has been this year - it's really, really good, and there isn't anything that suggests it is smoke and mirrors. Hence two more years of this? Two prospects, no way. Here are stats for 2025 for two American League starting pitchers: #1 10-4, 4.5 WAR, 2.63 ERA, 0.903 WHIP. #2 10-3, 4.9 WAR, 2.19 ERA, 0.815 WHIP. Number two is the AL reigning CYA winner, Tarik Skubal. Number one is Joe Ryan. While Skubal leads in each category, it's pretty darn close.
  22. arby58
    I wouldn't do the deal as suggested even if they can't extend him. Let's face it, if he has a couple more strong years, the Twins will be hard pressed to afford him. That said, there is plenty of time to unload him next year if circumstances warrant. For that matter, they may just let it ride, count on 2027 to be the year of emergence of Jenkins and some of the other up and comers, with a real shot at making some noise. Look at Detroit - there was a lot of chatter about them trading Skubal a couple of years ago. I'm sure they're glad they didn't pull that trigger.
  23. arby58
    Walker JenkinsLuke KeaschallEmmanuel RodriguezMarco RayaKaelen CulpepperConnor PrielippDasan HillCharlee SotoGabriel GonzalezAndrew MorrisBrandon WinokurRiley QuickMarek HoustonKyle DeBargeCJ CulpepperRicardo OlivarCarson McCuskerBilly AmickKhadim DiawQuentin Young
  24. arby58
    It's not enough for what will likely be a CYA top 10 starting pitcher with 2 additional years of team control. Not even close to enough.
  25. arby58
    I live in Des Moines and have seen them both play on a few occasions - they are both young (22 and 21 respectively) and talented (Cubs numbers 1 and 2 prospects according to MLB.com). Was actually there last Saturday night for Ballesteros' bobblehead night. Unlike BB, Moises went 0 for 3 on his bobblehead night.
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