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arby58

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Everything posted by arby58

  1. arby58
    That is correct, but in Torri's case, he played 135 games with the Twins in 1999 and was sent down for 55 games in 2000 - in that respect, it reminds me of Wallner and Julien, who both spent/are spending a significant amount of time back in AAA. In Morneau's case, he had only played 40 games with the Twins in 2003, so it's not as surprising that he basically spent half his time the next year between AAA and the AL.
  2. arby58
    Both Lee and Miranda got their chance because of injuries - not because they're young players with potential who 'deserve' a chance to start. It's also why both Wallner and Julien were sent back down - they didn't 'deserve' to play, based on their MLB performance. Wallner performed very well at AAA, and now he's back and has another shot. Julien has his AAA OPS up to .789, and if they need another infielder, he might get a shot yet this year. That said, he won't get that shot just because of potential. The goal is to make the play-offs, and those who have already proven it are going to play - as it should be. I have no idea what you are talking about regarding Texas' Garcia. Ardolis Garcia debuted with Texas in 2021 and played 149 games for them that year, then 156 in 2022 and last year, when you say he did not make his debut until December, he played in 148 games - how the heck do you do that in September?
  3. arby58
    13 HRs, second on the team to Jeffers' 14.
  4. arby58
    There are still the Brock Stewarts and Caleb Thielbars of the world that are notable exceptions - and at ages far in advance of 26.
  5. arby58
    On the contrary, the Twins decided that Wallner and Julien had to learn their way back to MLB at AAA. Complete agreement on that - the poster I responded to believes you should play the young players 'because they have potential.' That is what teams out of the play-off race do.
  6. arby58
    You deserve it when you prove it at the MLB level. The Twins are in the play-offs hunt, and this isn't the time or place for on-the-job training. That is what AAA is for. Miranda and Lee are playing because they are contributing, not because they have 'great potential.' We can hope that Wallner figured it out while at AAA, and Julien will also be ready. They were stinking up the joint for the Twins - it's notable that the offense picked up considerably when proven veterans like Correa, Buxton, Santana, and Kepler started picking it up.
  7. arby58
    Flaherty beat the Guardians last night, went 6 IP, 2 hits, 1 earned run. Doesn't sound like he is injured.
  8. arby58
    Agree - if Detroit has any chance of getting back into the play-off game in the next couple of years, they need to keep Skubal. They didn't make moves like signing Maeda (boy, that looks better for the Twins every day) if they were going into a 3 or 4 year rebuild.
  9. arby58
    Lewis looks brilliant when he is playing (although this year he has experienced a slump). That said, he has 379 plate appearances over parts of 3 MLB seasons with the Twins. It's phenomenal that he has generated 4.1 WAR over that stretch, but he is a constant risk of another injury. Meanwhile, Skubil is 4.2 WAR this season alone and 9.3 for his career. I'm thinking if anybody says no to this trade, it is Detroit.
  10. arby58
    There is still a lot of baseball left, and last year Ober's stats were not far off from Gray's. It may be that he has started to 'figure it out.' He has had some incredibly efficient starts of late - including the 89 pitch complete game. I still think he is in the top three. That said, SWR may not have great K%, but the rest of his game is playing pretty well. Yes, he doesn't have many innings under his belt, but neither does one of the Yankees' key starters. SWR has 87 innings pitched in MLB and Luis Gil has 129.
  11. arby58
    Comparing Nathan to Rivera as a 'dominant closer' is not going to come out well for Nathan. The 'glamor stats' are lopsided in Rivera's favor: he finished 2nd, 3rd (three times), 5th and 8th in Cy Young balloting. Nathan was 4th once and 5th once. Rivera got significant MVP votes in 9 seasons, including 9th twice 11th once, and 12th once. Nathan got those votes twice - 12th and 18th. Rivera was an All Star 13 times, Nathan 6. Of course, he was also the only player ever unanimously selected on the first ballot to the HOF - Nathan is not there. So go to an advanced stat, WAR. Nathan's 16 seasons produced 26.7 WAR. Rivera's 19 seasons produced 56.3. In the 8 comparable seasons when Nathan was closing for the Twins, his WAR was 18.3, and Rivera's was 27.3. Yes, in two of those seasons, Nathan had a higher WAR, but that is certainly not 'several years.' Nathan was very good, but Rivera was other-worldly.
  12. arby58
    I hear you - but AJ was a very good player at a premium position, whereas Cruz was a short-term rental. Liriano really only had the one super-outstanding year with the Twins - otherwise he was up and down. Bonzer was -0.5 WAR for his career, nearly all with Minnesota, so he's not really a factor. It's also a situation where we are assessing the entirety of Nathan's (outstanding) career with the Twins - if Ryan keeps pitching the way he has the first part of this year, that might flip thinking as well. Maybe the right grade is 'incomplete.'
  13. arby58
    It's an interesting comparison. The Twins also got Liriano and Bonzer plus Nathan. They did have to give up a very good catcher in A.J. Pierzynski, but they had Joe Mauer waiting in the wings. The thing that made the Ryan trade so valuable is they gave up next to nothing to get him. I'd probably also rate the Nathan trade slightly higher. I'd go back even further in history for what I thought as a kid was the best trade the Twins made - getting Caesar Tovar for Gerry Arrigo. Arrigo never really matched his performance after the trade, with a 2.2 career WAR - and Tovar's positional flexibility was unmatched, along with a career WAR of 28.3. That's a darn good trade!
  14. arby58
    I'm not as high on Martin (at least so far) as some. Sure, he gives them positional flexibility, but he has looked a little lost at those positions at times. Also, his -0.2 WAR is nothing to write home about.
  15. arby58
    They have been really bad against the Yankees, Guardians, and Orioles, to be sure, but they have winning records against the Red Sox (2-1), Royals (5-2), Mariners (5-2), and Astros (4-2), so it's not like they can't win against teams with winning records. Many ups and downs, to be sure, but that's most teams over 162 games. Last year, they were under .500 at the All Star break, so it's hard to be too hard on this team.
  16. arby58
    Certainly possible but a bit too early to set anything in stone. The Yankees are scuffling and the Twins and Red Sox are hot - they could both overtake them (or the Red Sox could just overtake the Twins). FWIW, the Twins are still within striking distance of the Guardians.
  17. arby58
    The Orioles won 101 games, the Rays 99, the Rangers ran on fumes the end of the season and had 90 wins - just 3 more than the Twins. They were NOT 'one of the best four or five teams' if you actually use an objective standard (i.e., wins). They were tied for 7th-9th best record last year. The Rangers were 15-14 at the end of the regular season, and they went 1-7 from August 30 to September 8. It's hindsight to say they 'were stacked' when they weren't playing like it at the end of the regular season. They got hot int he play-offs - yes, it does happen, even when you are not one of the 'four or five' best teams.
  18. arby58
    What's really a surprise is that they are the defending champions - anybody who now says they predicted a Rangers-Diamondbacks World Series is a liar. It also just goes to show that anything can happen once you make the play-offs.
  19. arby58
    Jax isn't just a middle reliever - he has 7 saves. Here's a little thought experiment: This player is an American League All Star: 1-3 record, 3.00 ERA, 36 innings pitched, 37 Ks, 8 walks. 1.306 WHIP. 19 saves. This player is not: 3-3 record, 1.88 ERA, 38 innings pitched 53 Ks, 10 walks. 0.939 WHIP. 7 saves. The first is the Yankees Clay Holmes, the second is Griffin Jax. Jax is clearly better in every category except saves. As advanced analytics suggest, you're often better using your best relief pitcher in non-save situations, which is often the case with Jax.
  20. arby58
    You only raised the issue of pinch hitting for Miranda. You seriously second guess the manager for a pinch hit that resulted in a positive outcome? Some people are never satisfied.
  21. arby58
    You're joking, right? The pinch hitter (Martin) singled and scored on Correa's grand slam. The manager's 'lineups, pinch hitting and bullpen moves' have them 12 games over .500.
  22. arby58
    The team as a whole is not striking out a lot. They are 21st of 30 MLB teams in number of strike outs and 10 of 15 in the AL.
  23. arby58
    As the article notes, Miranda is still a defensive liability. Primary DH or 'removed for a late inning defensive replacement' are probably in his future. That said, you sure aren't going to keep his bat out of the lineup. I recall the year before last Correa saying he was the best hitter on the team. May prove to be true.
  24. arby58
    The 'Kirilloff wouldn't have gotten hurt and had a great season' is complete conjecture. Wallner's sudden swoon at the beginning of the season and Julien's a bit later is the cautionary tale of relying on young players (you can add Varland to that group). Meanwhile, Santana plays far better defense, is 1st on the team in walks, 2nd in HRs, 3rd in total bases, and 4th in RBIs. Considering the Twins' offensive prowess of late, he is far from 'a waste.' For that matter, Margot was signed to be a platoon player, and he has performed well against LHP, with an .873 OPS. When used in that role, he is also a valuable contributor. The future is now - and plenty of 'the kids' have not seized the moment.
  25. arby58
    Disagree - the Twins are in the play-off hunt, and Kepler is a positive contributor. You play out the season with him on the team and thank him for his contributions over the years. 'Don't want to lose him for nothing' is for rebuilding teams, not play-off teams.
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