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arby58

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Everything posted by arby58

  1. arby58
    Dobnak had been in the minors for 3 years before the Twins added him last year, with unspectacular results. He has a career WAR of -0.2. Margot before being traded to the Twins had a 12.2 career WAR, and 0.6 the year before. They are not comparables.
  2. arby58
    The Twins would have dumped Dobnak long ago if not for his contract. Why would anybody trade for the chance to pay a AAA player well in excess of the league minimum?
  3. arby58
    I prefer your latter approach, but I suspect neither gives Skubal the perhaps head and shoulders edge over any other starting pitcher in the division. The other approach, which you provide at the start, is to just add up last year's WAR - which, of course, is predicting future outcomes based on past results, and every financial product will provide a disclaimer related to that approach. It also does not account for seasons cut short by injuries. Last year, it would have been hard to claim the Royals would have the best starting pitching in the division - some pitchers will emerge. As others have suggested, that may well be Festa for the Twins this year (just as SWR was an afterthought at this time last year).
  4. arby58
    'The lower you are on the totem pole' means you probably can't 'get money to spend' (i.e., loans, credit cards), so I don't see that as relevant. Inflation is a far bigger threat to lower income spending power. In fact, Powell and the FOMC did a great job of bringing down inflation without materially raising unemployment. I think the series on Pohlad is interesting/useful, but this straying into discussions of economic policy is woefully superficial.
  5. arby58
    That is not what it says. It says 'for wage growth to be sustainable' and says nothing about workers having less money. You do understand spending power decreases with inflation, right? Powell is saying you have to get inflation in check to have more spending power.
  6. arby58
    However, reports suggest these deals came at prices below their true value. With interest rates soaring due to Jerome Powell’s attempts to hurt worker power and unionization drives during 2021 and 2022, real estate transactions became harder. Office vacancies remained particularly high into 2023, though a series of punishing return-to-work policies from various companies have attempted to level the playing field for developers. This is nothing but a left-wing strawman (and for the record, I'm a Democrat). There are plenty of exogenous variables that don't fit with this neat and tidy 'beat down the working person and coddle the developers' claim. The series has been illuminating, but this sort of rhetoric detracts from it.
  7. arby58
    The first article is about all balls and strikes, not just third strikes.
  8. arby58
    It was a remarkable season, and the middle of that lineup was fearsome. They just might have won a World Series. I remember when it happened, and the thought process is he didn't get injured, he'll be back in a couple of days. The effects of concussions weren't nearly as well understood 'back then.' Same thing with Joe Mauer - the "M&M boys" were a joy to watch back then before the same type of injury flattened their trajectories.
  9. arby58
    I made the case yesterday for Buxton being on the list, and I won't repeat myself. That said, the near-term 'window' to build a champion has to have Buxton on the list. If this is an exercise in only looking five years out, sure - he likely doesn't make the cut. However, if Correa is on the list this year (age 30, 2024 3.7 WAR, $35 million salary) then how is Buxton not (age 31, 3.6 WAR, $15 million salary)?
  10. arby58
    Second on the team in WAR last year and is not one of their 20 most valuable assets? Hard to figure.
  11. arby58
    If that is the case, I don't get it. I understood it last year - he was coming off a season where he only DHd and had a 0.8 WAR. Last year, though, he played excellent CF and put up a 3.6 WAR - second on the team to Correa's 3.7. If Julien was on another team, would you trade him straight up for Buxton, even with the significant payroll savings? I wouldn't - and I bet no team would.
  12. arby58
    I always find it hard to comment on these lists until you see the whole 20. Thinking about the last 5, I assume it is some combination of Jenkins, Lewis, Lopez, Ryan, Ober, and Buxton - except that is 6. If one of those 6 is left off (I assume either Ober or Buxton), it's going to be hard for me to accept that, say, Julien is more valuable than either of those two as an asset.
  13. arby58
    It's not whether he would consider a trade - as I said elsewhere in the post, it's whether they can, as a result, get full value.
  14. arby58
    A 0.3 WAR over three years is practically the definition of a replacement player. Besides the 5.31 ERA in 2023, he also had a 1.465 WHIP. That's not a pitcher we need on the 40 man either. We traded a bag of balls for another bag of balls.
  15. arby58
    Gallo, for all his faults, was second on the team in HRs, had an OPS+ of 100, and a WAR of 0.5. Hard to call that the worst signing ever. Margot was much worse in about the same number of at bats, a -0.9 WAR, and an OPS of 76. Not. Even. Close.
  16. arby58
    Even in just 102 games last year, Buxton had a WAR of 3.6. The Twins could only hope to have more 'problems' who can put up that WAR in 102 games.
  17. arby58
    Emma has an injury record that nearly rivals Buxton.
  18. arby58
    What makes Moran an 'actual RP?' He's not on the 40 man roster, he missed all last year with TJ surgery, and the year before he was -0.4 WAR and a 5.31 ERA. If the Twins had traded for a pitcher with those stats, the comments would be about picking up a stiff.
  19. arby58
    OK, but the Twins also saved at least $10-15 million a year. Given the Twins budget, inconsistent and a spare $10-15 million is better than inconsistent without budget.
  20. arby58
    Heart and head were often at odds, which is a lot of what made him so inconsistent.
  21. arby58
    Baseball Prospectus has put out its 2025 PECOTA projections. They project Kepler to be 1.2 wins above a replacement player. They project Wallner at 1.7, and Larnach at 2.1.
  22. arby58
    Errors for an outfielder is not the primary stat to judge their defensive value. Baseball prospectus calculates Deserved Runs Prevented, which takes into consideration range, errors, etc. Kepler was 3.2 last year, and Wallner was -0.1, meaning over the course of the season, Kepler saved a little over 3 'deserved' runs more than Wallner. Now let's talk offense . . .
  23. arby58
    Kepler had 368 AB, and Wallner 220, so your cumulative stats mean little. Key non-cumulative stats favor Wallner - OPS .894 to .682, and OPS+ 149 to 91. Even a key cumulative stat (WAR) is CLEARLY better for Wallner - 2.2 to Kepler's 1.0. It's absurd to suggest that in 2024 'little things' Kepler was a better offensive player than (bigger things) Wallner.
  24. arby58
    Kepler was a right fielder, and I think Wallner is adequate for that. As for Rosario, he was maddingly inconsistent. Two of his last three years he's had negative WAR, but he also had a couple of great years for the Twins. Since then, though, other than one astonishing late-season/post-season with Atlanta, he's been average at best, so the Twins probably let him loose at the right time. He's 10 years in MLB with a 10.8 cumulative WAR, so he's never been a player you would build a team around.
  25. arby58
    'Live up to (Kepler) expectations?' His OPS+ last year was 91. Larnach and Wallner were 116 and 149. For his career, Kepler is just about average as a hitter - OPS+ of 101. Larnach is 102 and Wallner 139. I'd say they'd have to live DOWN to Kepler's expectations. If all you have on Kepler is he's better defensively: I've never heard a team constructed around great defense in the corners. C, SS, CF, sure, but RF, if they're great defensively it's gravy, but it's not the primary concern.
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