arby58

I have him over Gordon as well - and don't understand the belief that he and Castro both need to be utility role players on the 2024 roster. There are plenty of things that are off-putting about Gordon - lack of power, not a strong outfield throwing arm, very few walks, quite a few strikeouts. Even in his 'breakout' 2022 season, his OPS was petty close to league average at .743. Granted, his OPS+ was 111, but then let's talk about last year, which was a disaster, even before he got hurt. Sure, he offers positional flexibility, but he's 27, so the Twins pretty much know what he is. With a 1.4 WAR in nearly 700 at bats, that's not a lot.

They had Taylor and didn't need him in centerfield last year. It wasn't that long ago (2021) that Kepler played 164 innings in centerfield. I don't think he has lost that much mobility to make him 'terribly terribly not according to plan' to be in centerfield if needed.

The Twins have greater needs than second base, where Julien and Lee are on the rise. Polanco's two years of team control make him a valuable trade chip. It's not (only) about payroll, but when you have cheap replacements with at least a reasonable chance of performing as well or better (remember the Polanco injury issues), it makes sense to trade him. Of course, they will not give him away, but if he is the centerpiece of a trade for a decent starting pitcher, it works for me.

I see it differently. Turning the rule 5 draft into a sort of lottery where everybody can 'win big' doesn't seem to right any injustices to me. Meanwhile, the team that originally drafted or signed the player, developed him for several years, now must make an earlier judgement on their ultimate ability. I'm not seeing the point of that, from the perspective of improving the overall product. IF the Twins had not protected Rodriguez last year and he was lost and went on to become a huge star, how would Twins fans react to that? I think it good for players to come up through a system, and, as a fan, I get more enjoyment out of that than a game of minor league musical chairs.

The minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft does serve that purpose, and the Twins were active there.

The answer is in - no Twin was taken in today's Rule 5 draft.

I'm trying to find the team that is (a) looking for a back-up centerfielder, and (b) willing to take a flier on a guy who has never had breakout numbers in the minors, and (c) going to keep him on the MLB roster for an entire season. Haven't found one. I guess we'll find out - I highly doubt it.

Petty was toward the end of the first round and a high school pitcher - I wouldn't project that out to 'would trade any prospects for a position of need.' I 'get' the point of 'what if it were Acuna/Robert/etc.' but we're talking realistic trades here.

My 'untouchable' list, even before seeing the article, was Lopez, Lewis, and Jenkins - with Duran (who closes?) and Jeffers (who catches?) and maybe Rodriguez close behind (i.e., offer would have to blow you away). I sort of 'get' the point about Ryan - he's likely to be a solid #3 starter for a long time, and I'm not sure you'd get anything more than that back in a trade. Other than that, keeping in mind obvious points (don't trade both Lee and Julien, for example), I'd say the rest is negotiable.

Maeda was a Cy Young candidate in the COVID-shortened 2020, over 66.2 innings. Maeda's first year he threw 175.2 innings; since then, 134.1, 125.1, 153.2, 66.2, 106.1, 0, 104.1. I don't think 'dominated' is a word you would use for Maeda other than the 66.2 innings of 2020. His yearly ERAs have been 3.48, 4.22, 3.81, 4.04, 2.70 (dominant year), 4.66, 4.23. That said, the career ERA is 3.93 - yes, he is/was a good pitcher, but he is also going to be 36 years old in April 2024. Paddock has a lot more upside potential.

I agree with you that quality pitching is necessary in the post-season, which was why Gray's start against Houston was so disappointing - it was right there for the taking for the Twins. I also agree about Paddock - he has that 'eye of the tiger' look to him. I think he has a chip on his shoulder and is wanting to prove he is a quality MLB pitcher. He certainly has the stuff. Yes, pitching much more than, say, Maeda's 2023 innings may be a challenge. If the Twins can pick up a decent starting pitcher who can provide 150-180 innings, things should be just fine.

Like everything else, it depends. The Twins offense was anemic before the All Star break, and IF Lewis, Julien, Wallner can continue to perform as in the second half and if at least one of Correa and Buxton can return to form, the offense should be better. If the offense is better, the pitching doesn't have to be quite as stellar. The other thing about the Law article is it assumes the current young Twins pitchers will not get any better. I'm starting to think that may be the case with Ryan, unless he can develop a really strong second pitch. I'm not nearly as certain with Ober and Varland. Ober ran out of gas a bit and got hit, but that is a 'build him up' thing. Varland gave up too many home runs, but he's only started 15 MLB games. He had great success at every stop in the minors (and HRs weren't that much of an issue), and he lost the 2020 minor league year, so maybe it's just needing more time. The stuff is there.

To be fair and honest, you said it had not happened. I agree 1 in 30 is not often, but I also pointed out that there are others not so far from 18 (pretty revealing you chose that number). There are also a quite a few who were in the World Series but did not win it with below average payrolls. I am not a Pohlad, nor I am a member of the front office. I was, however, the budget director of an $18 billion operation, and I 'get' that (a) budget cuts are often necessary in a profit-seeking business, and (b) spending alone does not necessarily drive results. I like a lot of what the current front office has done. They have traded for good starting pitching when a lot of organizations have crapped all over themselves with big free agent starting pitching contracts that end up as dead weight. They invested in the organization's infrastructure, and there is now a pretty strong pipeline as a result. They took some shots to try to compete, even when they didn't work out (all the Mahle trade haters, how many of you moan and groan when they don't do anything?). Bottom line is that I know what it is like to be in a high leverage position and have to pull the trigger on decisions. It's particularly interesting to see how the casual fan has stopped crying in their beer about the Lopez trade - I suspect people will feel the same way about Meada and Pagan (who, again, people were willing to ride out on a rail last year). These guys have not done a horrible job - I think a pretty good one. Yes, they have made some moves that haven't worked out, and at least one that was a pretty bad mistake (the trade of Pressley for not much in return). The Berrios return hasn't been great to date but the jury is still out (and Berrios didn't turn out to be a Cy Young-caliber pitcher in Toronto either). Still, the starting pitching trades in general, the trade for Duran, trade for Taylor, trade for Farmer - those were all key components from last year's team. BTW, I said many of the same things about the T-wolves last year . . . and suddenly, things look pretty good for them as well.

I'd say that was pretty much the model in 2023. Duran had 27 of their 38 saves, which is 71 percent. Jax had 4, Lopez 3, and several other pitchers 1 each.

I'm not interested in quibbling over details, but you originally said 1 or 2 prospect - and with 30 teams, that may well be somewhere near the top 60. Is rare something that happens most every year? Because I suspect that is exactly what happens with trades of a 1 or 2 prospect. To me, that's not rare. YMMV. Have the last word, I've made my case.

Except it is not 11 in 25 years - these are the ones that have graded out as stars (WAR-wise) after being traded. There are, no doubt, at least as many who never made it to that level. it is far from rare (your original word) and I suspect also not unusual.

It depends. Julien wasn't tailing off as the year went on, which would be the case if the league was catching up to the player. Lewis, sure - but the numbers were so good over the timeframe that it's hard to say an .820 OPS is better than his .921 and 150 OPS because he did it over a full season. Bottom line - there is no way in Hades the Twins would trade Lewis for Steer straight up, and I doubt they would Julien for him either.

Well, Lewis, of course. 2.4 WAR in 217 at bats. 15 HRs in 40 percent of a full season's at bats. .309 batting average, .921 OPS, 150 OPS+. Those are all star caliber numbers.

Steer is the guy most people look at. He had a nice year. He had a full season (582 AB) so 3.0 WAR. His OPS was .820. There really isn't anything statistically where he graded out better than the twins rookies Lewis and Julien - they both had higher OPS. In far fewer at bats, Lewis had a 2.4 WAR and Julian 2.6 with more than 300 and 200 fewer at bats respectively.

I would wonder what is the basis for the 'teams have become more reluctant to trade these top prospects?' Any analytics behind that or just a SWAG?

It happens. This is from an article on MLB.com about a week ago, about 'stars who were traded as top prospects.' Note it only included players who have already gotten to at least 15 WAR in the MLBs, so that is why there isn't anybody after 2015, and no doubt there are others who did not perform up to that standard at the MLB level: Dansby Swanson: AZ to ATL, December 2015 Trea Turner: SD to WSH, June 2015 Anthony Rizzo: SD to CHC, January 2012 Carlos Carrasco: PHI to CLE, July 2009 Gio González: CHW to OAK, January 2008 Elvis Andrus: ATL to TEX, July 2007 Hanley Ramírez: BOS to MIA, November 2005 Scott Kazmir: NYM to TB, July 2004 Adam Wainwright: ATL to STL, December 2003 Kenny Lofton: HOU to CLE, December 1991 Moises Alou: PIT to MON, August 1990

Agree - he's a keeper. We're not getting a solid starting pitcher for less. My question is who to keep, Julien or Lee? Julien has proven himself at the MLB level, Lee is a prospect - maybe with a higher ceiling, but still not proven. I like to take the safe side, keep the more known quantity, even if Lee has more upside potential. YMMV, and I don't disagree with that.

This 'he was here at age this and he was here at age that' is interesting, but it is not necessarily indicative of future performance. Kirby Puckett was in A league ball at age 23. He was in the majors at age 24 and did ok. Julien was in the majors at age 24 and did ok as well. We don't know about Lee - who has never had an OPS above .850 at ANY level of professional baseball.

The flip side of this is that Julien made it to AAA and MLB at age 24. Lee will likely start next year at AAA at age 23. It's not as if Lee wasn't playing baseball those other years, he just did it for longer in college than Julien.

Problems with the clear path: Lee is a switch hitter, so what's the platoon point of view for 2B? Julien played 3/4ths of his MLB games at 2B, not DH, so I don't think the Twins see him in that role. Correa and Lewis are (unless injured) going to be at SS and 3B. You already have Castro as a backup there if needed. My guess is they keep one of either Polanco or Farmer, so still no room for Lee. The point about 'how will you pay all these guys at arbitration' is to move some of them so it isn't an issue. I still think Lee is the likely candidate, given his value but not yet proven ratio.