Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

jkcarew

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    5,091

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    5

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    I don’t think it just HS pitchers…but HS players in general. It’s simply harder to project from the younger age and over a greater number of years. It’s harder to successfully predict the weather 5 days from now vs 2 days from now. More time for things to change and/or deviate from forecasted results. But when a HS pitcher is drafted in the 1st/2nd rounds, it’s because the upside is SO high, that it warrants the higher fail rate. It seems like Soto fits that definition. So for now, I’ll dream about him becoming one of the ones that came out ‘ok’ despite the odds being stacked against them: guys like Clayton Kershaw, Madison Bumgarner, Blake Snell, Zach Greinke, Roy Halladay, CC Sabathia…
  2. jkcarew
    High ceiling, due to the immense power. Relatively low floor, as he doesn’t seem to offer much value other than the power. Some, but not much. Absolutely too early to tell. Still in the acclimation period where pitchers will make adjustments against him...and he against them, etc. The power is no joke. Probably comes down to ability to manage the K rate. We’ll see.
  3. jkcarew
    So put him on the 40-man and break camp with him so he can take a bench role from Farmer??
  4. jkcarew
    Hitting has always been about finding the sweet spot between the ‘aggressive’ approach where swinging early in the count can reduce likelihood of K, but also can lead to frequently putting ‘pitchers pitches’ into play (soft contact) resulting in muted BABiP/SLG…vs ‘patient’ approach, offer only at pitches you (think) you can drive hard for extra bases…taking the tough pitches, and increasing likelihood of getting into 2-strike counts and subsequently K’ing. We all know where that pendulum currently stands. A ton of players in the league that wouldn’t have a clue about how to execute the ‘aggressive’ approach because they’ve only hit with the one tool in the box right from little league. Maybe more data drives the pendulum more into balance. Maybe more data will drive it further out of balance.
  5. jkcarew
    The modern hitter (and Gallo fits the category) get their 2-strikes mostly by TAKING strikes, not expanding the zone. (Especially relative to earlier generations of players.) Hence the preponderance of ‘three true outcome’ guys. The mantra is to offer only at pitches you can drive out of the park. Can’t do that with a fastball tailing hard into the inside corner or a slider at the knees on the outside black, etc, etc. The conundrum is, that in many, many at-bats this results in HAVING to expand the zone with 2 strikes. That’s where we’re at. The Twins will still have their share of these guys…Julien probably the ‘best’ example.
  6. jkcarew
    Right? About a dozen. I’d say an even 20…plus or minus another half-dozen…in the next TWO years, before the club would pick up the team option in 2026. But, true to their nature, the Twins will have him cleaning dishes in the cafeteria before they’ll release him and the $5.25M he’s owed between now and then.
  7. jkcarew
    Devers as 3B depth at $30M? No doubt Red Sox nation is clamoring to replace Devers with someone like Austin Martin…still, this doesn’t seem like a Twins-type move. Besides, with our luck, if we did this…it would for sure end up being the year Lewis finally DOESN’T get hurt. And Devers doesn’t have options. So, we’d just look silly.
  8. jkcarew
    Still think you’re wasting his speed at 3B. (And don’t buy the injury risk being materially different.) But regardless of whether or when Lewis moves, 3B should be solid for at least a few years between Lewis, and/or Lee, and/or Correa.
  9. jkcarew
    Don’t mind trading the prospects. In a couple of instances turns out we got big time duds in return, though. That’s the risk. The Petty loss is the one that hurts the most…but it’s also the one that worked exactly as hoped in terms of return.
  10. jkcarew
    Never know, I guess. But fwiw, the small sample spring numbers you mention don’t really say “good”, IMO. It’s almost impossible in todays game to face 13 batters and only K one. I don’t think the BABiP-against of 100 is going to hold😉.
  11. jkcarew
    Should they? No. Would it work as suggested? No.
  12. jkcarew
    Nothing more happening for the Twins…save for catastrophic ST injury to key player. So, let’s not go there. I do think this is a very important year for Kirilloff. He needs to stay healthy and perform. He has yet to do both for anything close to a full season. If Lee is the near future at 2B, the clock is ticking on Kirilloff to grab 1B by the throat. If he doesn’t/can’t, his Twins future could start to look more Randy Bush-ish. (Not that a good team couldn’t use a Randy Bush…he’s got 2 WS rings. It just doesn’t lead to the pay day at free agency that Kirilloff probably still has in mind.)
  13. jkcarew
    Why not Polanco and prospects for the quality starter? There are reasons beyond salary to keep Julien vs Polanco.
  14. jkcarew
    It’s the same feeling as has been the trend for almost a decade, right? The club is well positioned to compete in the worse division in baseball (also usually the lowest aggregate payroll division in baseball). And not very well positioned to compete for a pennant or WS. I do think there seems to be a window for more than that starting in a year or two from now…if/when this promising wave of prospects establish themselves. But that’s also why it’s a bit frustrating that the roster is still currently jammed with so many mediocre veterans. Oh, well…in the meantime, there’s always the AL Central to keep us interested.
  15. jkcarew
    I feel like we’re lamenting the Margot deal simply because it came last. It’s the Santana deal that did the damage, IMO. Did we not already have 2 or 3 guys that could handle 1B and rotate in/out of DH? On the other hand, you pretty much HAVE to have a guy ready to play every-day mlb-caliber CF. If you’re not feeling good about who you could put out there (besides Buxton) for 70-100 games, it’s negligence to not find someone to fix that.
  16. jkcarew
    Sorry, the defensive side of it is too full of holes. The concept of one number that “says it all” is cool…unfortunately, you can’t count on the defense part of the math to render a number that isn’t distorted somewhat…or one that is even consistent year to year for the same player. I go by OPS+ and/or wRC+ for offense, and eyeballs (mostly) for defense. And in today’s game, with fewer and fewer balls put in play, the offensive side has more weight than ever in assessing the total value of the player of any position (on a relative basis). I don’t necessarily like that. But it is what it is…and more balls in play doesn’t appear to be anywhere on the horizon.
  17. jkcarew
    I’m starting to think the Twins should ALWAYS load the bases before Lewis comes up. ALWAYS. Say, runners on 1st and 3rd with two out, Lewis on deck. We get a single…runner on 1st advances to second, 3rd base coach HOLDS the runner at 3rd. Grand Slam. Could be the difference between 1 run and 4 runs. Just sayin.
  18. jkcarew
    I mean…Jax blew 7 saves last year and lost 10 games. Throws one pitch constantly…and batters were putting it into play more frequently. And Thielbar gave up 7 HR in 30 innings last year (reflected in his FIP). Why? Because the new rules require that he pitch against right-handed batters more frequently…and they demolished him. Stewart needs to stay healthy and repeat best-in-career results…and even Duran wasn’t “lights out” last year with his sudden bouts of loosing the K zone. I’m expecting an above average bullpen based on depth…especially if Alcala finally ‘arrives’. Still, the way the starting rotation is shaping up, the depth will likely be put to a pretty stiff test. Me thinks we’re getting a bit ahead of ourselves regarding the bullpen, though.
  19. jkcarew
    “If Buxton is healthy and has a good year….look out!” ”Ownership is cheap” We really could write next spring’s stories now, amiright?
  20. jkcarew
    I don’t think Severino will ever be a bench player in the majors…and for sure not in 2024. If he can control the K’s, the bat will play…and he’ll eventually land at 1B or DH, I assume. For someone.
  21. jkcarew
    “The team has sufficient veteran depth in the back-of-the-rotation in veterans Paddack and DeSclafani. Varland is presumably better than the aforementioned duo.” Why? Because he’s younger? More healthy? From Minnesota? Nobody in baseball with as many innings pitched in 2023 as Varland (68), gave up home runs as frequently as did Varland. Most of the numbers don’t presume that Varland is better. And if the Twins REALLY thought he was their 4th best option, he’d be in the rotation out of spring. Now, they could be wrong. We’ll see. For me, I’d rather have him as a reliever rather than a starter with the big club. But, I’m fine them continuing to try to develop him as a starter at St. Paul, and giving him another shot when injuries/rest/failure happen.
  22. jkcarew

    So What Now?

    jkcarew commented on Doctor Gast's blog entry in Doctor Gast's Blog

    Harrelson probably doesn’t play in today’s league…certainly doesn’t hold down a starting role. Very different game. Even Ozzie Smith is automatically significantly less valuable in todays game…way fewer balls put into play, and fewer infield ground balls. Gotta have at least some pop in the bat in today’s game. But, yes…if Miller is Ozzie Smith, the Twins shouldn’t have traded him for a back up center-fielder.
  23. jkcarew
    I suggest becoming a Yankee or Dodgers fan. Instead of being angry EVERY year regarding payroll, you can be angry only on years where you club doesn’t win the WS in dominating fashion. Doesn’t that sound fun?
  24. jkcarew
    He might have meant the guy who used his cash to save the Twin Cities mass transportation system in 1960, or the guy that risked his capital to provide employment to tens of thousands of Twin Cities families for more than half a century. It works both ways.
  25. jkcarew
    Apparently, few here are going to let the facts get in the way of the conclusions they’ve drawn.
×
×
  • Create New...