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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    True. But this only carries over to the actual matchup if you assume the respective pitching performances will be equal. And the Twins pitching hasn’t been even too close to the equal of any of these clubs with the exception of Boston. Hence, the frustration with the deadline.
  2. jkcarew
    Well, kinda. After the beat down Cleveland put on the Orioles yesterday, even if they only win 1 of the next 3, the Twins are looking at picking up 1 or 2 games. And I wouldn’t bet on the Orioles winning 2 of the next 3 in Cleveland. With a current 6.5 game gap, Twins probably need to dominate Cleveland in their remaining matchups regardless. We’re getting very close to the point where wild card would be the only realistic path.
  3. jkcarew
    Um…sitting with the best record in baseball. Yep. Better than the Phillies. Better than the Dodgers, the Yankees, and the Orioles. Also, better record than the Twins in their last 10 games. So, not exactly looking terribly vulnerable at the moment.
  4. jkcarew
    His BABiP so far this year is 387...about 100 points higher than his career average. He's a 110-ish OPS+ guy whose entire offensive value...what makes him 'good'... is his ability to take a base-on-balls. Meanwhile, he can only play 1B or DH from a practical standpoint. But we always yearn for what we once had. I guess.
  5. jkcarew
    How does a guy with a 1.14 WHIP and an average HR-allowed rate have such a poor ERA and negative WAR?? Well...this year his OPS allowed with RiSP is 1.047. The Twins plan, obviously, is to never use this reliever in situations where......um, you really, REALLY need a reliever. Innovative! For all other situations, we got our guy!
  6. jkcarew
    Especially in the 4th inning. Meanwhile, they must have had to call Sands out of the clubhouse. Pre-game plan didn’t have him pitching until the 6th, apparently.
  7. jkcarew
    The Phillies are in a phunk.
  8. jkcarew
    The article’s headline is 100% accurate. The Twins must do trades BEFORE the deadline.
  9. jkcarew
    That 9th inning by Thielbar had to be a huge blow to Ober’s confidence.
  10. jkcarew
    Quite possible.
  11. jkcarew
    Emphatic no for me. Time to let the young guys with much higher upside go. Nothing against Dobnak…and he’s getting paid well for his efforts, for what he is.
  12. jkcarew
    Why do switch hitters that are far superior from the right side continue to switch hit?
  13. jkcarew
    You make a great argument for Raya to be outside the top 10…then you put him at 6?? Zero evidence he’s on a path to be a major-league starter. Graterol 2.0, but without a dominant pitch.
  14. jkcarew
    Kirilloff: “The relationship between both sides here can’t be in a great place…” Huh?? Why? Absolutely no basis for this comment beyond pure random speculation…right?
  15. jkcarew
    I miss the dank monolith that was old Comiskey. What’s wrong with me?
  16. jkcarew
    Rocco should pinch run him. That way, when/if he eventually comes to bat, he won’t be pinch hitting. Seems simple.
  17. jkcarew
    Also, Correa is a bit of a throw-back. IMO. Willing and able to play with minor injuries. Said to the media after yesterday’s game: “I’m playing tomorrow”. It’s rarely that simple. But, playing he is. Love it.
  18. jkcarew
    Buxton’s hitting about one gazillion against Flexen. Still, given the push-back from commenters (including me) in TD’s Larnach puff piece today…Larnach should be a cinch for PoG. 3-4 with a HR, 2B, and a BB.
  19. jkcarew
    I sure hope he finds it…win/win.
  20. jkcarew
    Hey…we all have to have our LEAST favorite Twin, right!? At least for recent years, Odorizzi fits that bill for me. At the point in his career when he was a Twin, he had developed into a hall-of-fame level nibbler and slow worker. Got out in time to avoid pitching with the clock. Was effective at times for the Twins, but I swear it was mostly the opponent giving in to boredom, and swinging at stuff deliberately thrown out of the strike zone. To be fair, I’m not objective here, because I could not stand his pace. Thankfully, even bad baseball is good.
  21. jkcarew
    Castro for me. Good story…probably never will be this close again. Second on the team in WAR….125 OPS+. Arguably in the Twins top 3 MVP for the first half, given the every-day consistent solid play in multiple roles due to the injuries.
  22. jkcarew
    As long as we don’t get a repeat of 2022: …plays in the AS game, then misses (rests) the first two games back from the break. Grrrr.
  23. jkcarew
    Not a thorough or convincing use of the data regarding Larnach, IMO. Batter BABiP does not regress to league averages as do pitchers. They don’t even regress to the player’s average…when that player is making massive adjustments. Like Larnach. Larnach is swinging earlier in the count than he ever has. And seeming also to be willing to give in more often and try to ‘just’ put the ball in play with two strikes. Undoubtedly, to bring down the massive K rate. Regarding the K rate, it’s a monumental success. Overall, it worked for a while…but an inevitable cost is that you’ll offer at a lot of tough pitches. And pitchers adjust. So, his BB% has tanked, and whatever the averages say about EV and LA, the fact is he’s hitting a ton (for him) of balls on the ground. And it’s pretty clear he isn’t squaring stuff up as frequently as he was earlier in the year. And unless he gets significantly better at deploying this approach (certainly possible), I don’t see the HR rate bumping up much, if at all. I would expect the BABiP to improve some…but not necessarily get too close to what it’s been in the past.
  24. jkcarew
    Taking notes…. First, let’s keep everybody. Then, let’s call up every hot hitter and pitcher in AAA (plus Emmy Rodriguez). Finally, trade for difference-making arms at the deadline, without giving up top prospects. Did I miss anything?
  25. jkcarew
    Yep…that meets the eye test as well. He’s been slipping slightly/slowly as the season has progressed.
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