jkcarew

Yeah…I like that. Leading bWAR player on the team that beat us in the playoffs last year. I’d rather not be talking about Mantle, Trout, Harper. If Jenkins is the most gifted kid to come in the past decade, we would still have a 95% chance of disappointment if that’s our current bar for him. Does he have a higher ceiling than Tucker? Seems like it at this early stage. But I’d take the Kyle Tucker comp and no major injuries…in a heartbeat.

I think the point with Lee's numbers from the right side is that 1) they were really bad as he faced the higher-level pitchers in AA and AAA in 2023....and 2) you don't want him on the big club failing against lefties...and 3) I don't think you want him on the big club platooning, not yet anyway. Give him a chance to make some adjustment in St. Paul. The right-side numbers are downplayed in the article. They were really bad. Power way less than from the left side...and K/BB ratio spectacularly worse than from the left side...to the point where, if the trend continues, you'd definitely have to question why he bothers switch-hitting. Moreover, if you youtube him, tell me that that bat doesn't seem slower from the right-hand side. (Note that the 'good' right-side results in 2022 included 24 total PA, and mostly single-A pitching.) I'm not suggesting the wait needs to be a couple of years...or even one year. But there should be at least a little more work (and data) so you know how the issue is trending and have a better handle on how he should be used when you bring him up. Also, agree that this team is probably better (particularly, after Lee comes up) if Lewis is in the outfield. (And also if Jeffers is somehow getting more AB's) As for 'positional certainty'....I'm not buying even 5% of that. Harmon Killebrew had about 500 career home-runs...switching back and forth between 1st, 3rd, and LF, from year to year and game to game...before 'positional certainty' set in. Pete Rose, Ben Zobrist…and Lewis better suited athletically than those. Unless of course, if somehow deemed detrimental to his health by he, his agent, and/or the club. Just hit, Royce.

The problem is we know Buxton won’t ‘play more than not’ in CF. And MAT isn’t necessarily someone you want playing 80+ games and getting 250+ PA against right-handed pitching. He’d be an easy choice if the role really was bench/late-defense and spot starts against LH pitching. But the Twins should be asking themselves who can we accept starting 80+ games in CF. Is MAT a better overall option than Castro and/or Martin in that scenario? Tough call. And fwiw, other than Bellinger, I’m not sure any of the other FA options are obviously better either. My guess is they go MAT…or stick in house. But have no idea which.

I like it…2 lefties in the Bullpen (at least) for any series, plus a couple in AAA with MLB experience and options remaining. Gordon is useful for many clubs. It’s just that ours has guys like Castro, Martin, Lee, etc who figure to be useful (at the least) as well…and can hit right handed. Does anyone know the story behind Okert not playing in 2020? I assume he was simply in the minors that year…and no minor league games were played. Or was it injury?

So, we’re RE-evaluating the trade before spring training?? 😉 FWIW, my opinion is that it would have been managerial malpractice to NOT trade at least one second baseman…Polanco, Lee, Julien, Gordon, Martin…to try to mitigate bigger weaknesses in the roster. Take your pick. They chose the oldest, the one with recent availability issues, and probably (Lee?) the one that returned the most. Meanwhile, Polanco’s 162-game bWAR pace last season was less than 0.2 better than Julien’s…with an MLB top-50 prospect waiting in the wings. We’ll see what happens.

I’m thinking some payroll will be added still before the season starts. Regardless, the ‘ownership is unnecessarily cheap’ discussions get old, at least for me. Always an argument for spending more from a fans perspective, always. And it’s not like there’s a pattern here of misalignment between revenue and payroll relative to the league. So, IMO, more interested in HOW (roster construction) the FO spends the payroll, regardless of the rationale for the final number. Plenty to pick apart there.

Wow. Where to begin. Through age 29, Beltre had played about 1550 games. Buxton, 670. Beltre played another nearly 1400 games after age 30. Can Buxton improve on his career 106 OPS+ in his 30’s? Yes. It’s not a high bar. But I’d be careful assuming that the mediocre offensive results to date are 100%..or even mostly…attributable to playing with injuries. He’s never been a guy who controls the zone, and the result has been wildly inconsistent results regardless of injury status. Any offensive improvement will come with significantly less defensive value than he provided in his 20’s….and it will come across…what?….MAYBE 600 games?? He’s averaged 73 games per season when playing the field. Played 85 games last season as a full time DH. I’d be absolutely thrilled with 15-20 WAR over the last 5 years of his current contract. Yet, 20 is pretty unlikely…and it wouldn’t get him near the HALL…fringe shot at Twins HOF, maybe.

Regarding the ALC…the more things change…the more they stay the same.

Maybe we suffer from Sano syndrome. During Sano’s age 20 A+ season, he struck out less (and slashed better) than ERod…and Sano did so in a tougher environment (the FSL) for hitting than the Midwest league. Having said that, Sano never developed really at all beyond age 22. If anything he regressed. And that doesn’t have to be the case for Rodriquez. We’ll see.

Agree that the 120 innings…which would be a fine rookie and/or #5 starter number…is very much in question still. He was at LESS THAN 3 innings per start last year, which isn’t any more than he did the year before at age 19. Seems inordinately conservative even for the Twins. Now (presumably) he’ll be working deeper into games than he ever has as a pro…and against the best lineups he’s ever seen. Big challenge.

All fair points…but then you’re basically saying (as management) that we’re not ever debuting a starter before age 22-23…no matter how good and talented he is. He averaged LESS THAN 3 innings per start last year. He threw more innings at age 19 than he did at 20. Granted, maybe it’s because there is something about him that gives management pause.

Don’t know why they’ve gone over-the-top ultra/extreme conservative with his work load. Sure there’s a reason. But, it basically closes the book on any meaningful work with the big club in 2024. The only option being a bullpen role, further postponing his development as a starter. Pretty much HAVE to stretch him out in the minors this year. How can he prove he can/can’t be a starter until he’s tried? I’m guessing working up to at least 80-pitch, 5+ inning starts this year. And then we see him in 2025. The objective should be that you move him, with reasonable level of confidence, to the rotation NEXT spring, or make him a reliever. One or the other…right out of spring training.

I’ll take range over arm strength all day long in CF. The historical list of above average CF’s that had pea-shoots for arms is pretty impressive.

Max’s Twins career has been harder to kill than Keith Richards. He’s a nice guy to have, but I don’t think you can justify an average starting right-fielder salary in his next contract, unless it’s a 1 or 2 year deal. And I think Max will want/expect more.

It occurs to me that it would seem easier to add velocity from age 20/21 to age 23/24 when said 20 year old is 6-6, and not 6-0. Above average control/command, just the opposite.

It’s a great question. My two cents…I’m with Nicksaviking…command, command, command. And he’ll have to prove it at the AAA level, which as you point out, he hasn’t yet. To me, the “shape” of his pitches offer opportunity to make things marginally better. But to take his command to the next level, work consistently ahead, and get AAA/MLB hitters to swing at his pitches, is where the money will be.

I’ll take any comp from a pool of players that played…say…140 games or more for 8 or more years in a 10 year stretch. If Lewis does that, he’ll probably be more valuable than 60% of those guys. I’m already convinced health is the only concern, not development.

The icebergs we have to navigate in 2024 are miles away, and yet we’ve already started to rearrange chairs on the deck. Timing seems odd with Balazovic…probably simply comes down to evaluating guys to be at the same level and preferring the one(s) that have minor league options, rather than one(s) that don’t…given that the expected role is emergency/fill-in. Then again, doing it now might increase the odds (still unlikely, IMO) that Balazovic slips through the cracks.

Balazovic just not good enough for a guy with no options. He’ll likely figure things out well enough at AAA over the next year or two to stick with a major league club in the bullpen. Lots of things delayed the process here, not the least of which were the injuries and the utter lack of ability to work from ahead in the count at the upper levels.

As mentioned…needs to improve BOTH command and velocity. Can definitely happen still, but usually doesn’t happen ‘all-of-a-sudden’. Even a move to the bullpen, by itself, doesn’t solve the command challenge. In small sample AAA relief outings, the K/BB ratio popped, but HR% and SLG were actually worse than his starter outings. Agree, he still looks the part of a legit prospect. But…at least for the Twins…the expiration date on that status could expire quicker than we might think if he can’t add value in Minneapolis.

It wouldn’t surprise me if (when an injury happens) Martin is promoted to play every day, and Gordon remained in the utility role. (Predicated on Martin playing well in AAA, of course.)

I think he’s turning out to be a high floor guy rather than a high ceiling guy. And that’s OK, That kind of defensive flexibility, baserunning, combined with the ability to make contact and take walks plays very well in a lineup full of power/KO guys. To me he seems like Nick Gordon with better OBP skills. I’ll take that. I can see Gordon getting another chance, but the leash should be short…he and Martin seem redundant…and the right handed bat fits better, I think.

IMO, had to get a right-handed bat…hoping against hope that it would be a CF option. I’m guess MAT now…it can’t be Castro or Gordon, can it??

Further, this was D2 baseball…quality/consistency of defense, fields, as uneven as the opposition. It’s a completely different environment than 95% of mid-round college drafties. Background is more Nick Anderson than David Festa. Same floor, higher ceiling.

Late bloomer (by today’s standards)…was pretty much a non-prospect in HS. Then to a D2 college. They should (and probably will) take their time with him. His background and freak athleticism warrants patience. Huge upside for a ‘throw in’…but I don’t expect him to be ready, even in a best-case scenario (at least as a starter) until at least 2026.