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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    Would be HUGE if he’s healthy and effective…especially if that can be the case in October.
  2. jkcarew
    Unless they can sign and draft amateurs, and then develop them…year after year… on a par with the likes of Tampa Bay, it’s not going to be pretty. This is where it’s actually bad to be in the ALC…because the FO can pretend to compete year after year, without ACTUALLY competing. And the general fan base swallows that bait…while chalking up relatively frequent, but short, playoff runs to “bad luck”.
  3. jkcarew
    I agree with JD Martinez. But, he’s a right handed bat and would be a ‘starter’ at DH, and/or 1B. I guess my assumption is that (regardless of what they ‘should’ do)…a platoon bat is all that’s in the budget…if even that. And in that scenario, a right-handed bat has a much lower threshold to clear in order to make the club better. A left-handed bat would have to be better than Lewis, Buxton, Kirilloff, Correa, Kepler, Wallner, and Julien to play against right-handed pitching. High bar. Meanwhile it’s pretty easy to improve that group against left-handed pitching…and to exceed the likes of Farmer, etc as platoon options. Regardless, if a left-handed bat that clears that bar is out there and available…yes, I’d take him at DH, or to force the likes of Wallner or Julien to DH.
  4. jkcarew
    Where… DH? (or 2B, if you slide Julien to DH)? I would think the priority would be a right-handed bat. With a lefty like Larnach to fill the DH role only if by consolation…the failure to land a right-handed bat, or Martin/Prato/whoever not being ready. A guy like Martin (if deemed ready) could play frequently between 2B, and outfield. FWIW, Polanco takes away a decent-ish right-handed bat with him as well.
  5. jkcarew
    I don’t think the favorite Larnach, either. I guess if the club doesn’t break down and sign MAT…AND Larnach tears it up in spring training? Still think it’s a most likely a right-handed bat with more defensive value and/or flexibility.
  6. jkcarew
    They were forthcoming with the news on payroll decline because they knew any stop-gap one-year TV deal would bring in way less money than the previous deal had on an annual basis. And they were correct. Many millions less. The narrative/insinuation that they “ended up getting a deal, but are pocketing the money” is ludicrous. They knew they would end up with SOME type of deal (and apparently, they were overconfident that it would include a solve for blackouts.) Let’s wait to see what they do or don’t do in the next few weeks and at the deadline.
  7. jkcarew
    Yes, they are both early enough in their developmental that it is still yet to be determined. But De Andrade seems clearly ahead offensively as of now. Last summer, his age 19 year in Fort Myers was significantly better than was Miller’s the previous season. And it’s not like Miller set a high offensive bar last season at Cedar Rapids. I do like how Miller seems to be able to get on base via BB.
  8. jkcarew
    Zero chance. But if it DID happen, I’d trade Kiriloff the day after (or the evening of) his first good game of the season. I do find it amusing that some here consider him so overrated. I trust it’s not folks who, at the same time, think Buxton is a superstar “when healthy”. Bellinger is a much better hitter than Buxton, he has a better track record of health, he is nearly 2 years younger than Buxton, and he…more than likely…will provide MORE defensive value than Buxton going forward. If you truly had a chance to sign Bellinger on a shorter-term deal…and PAYROLL was the dealbreaker, you’d certainly entertain trading several veterans…including Buxton…for a young controllable arm and or right-handed hitting OF prospect.
  9. jkcarew
    It’s fairly rare that a club can compete at a very high level consistently through the duration of a roster transition…or at least a transition of the roster core and leadership. For it to happen, multiple young guys need to exhibit near linear development…no regression, no ‘sophomore slumps’. And/or key prospects need to hit the MLB ground running. Still, with health and a bounce-back year from Correa, the 2024 Twins can get close to 91 wins, I think. The schedules are still unbalanced…and the AL Central is the gift that keeps on giving.
  10. jkcarew
    This. One was legendarily great in the postseason, the other quite ordinary in the limited chances he got. Probably gets in eventually. It may take some time. I think any concerted effort needs to be timed correctly. The plan needs to be strategically executed when unusually ‘weak’ new eligibility pools happen.
  11. jkcarew
    We’ll complain they chose revenue over ‘availability’, but at the same time, we’ll complain that payroll is too low. Was it the best decision long-term? I don’t know. Any decision that leads to more winning and less losing is the best short, medium and long-term decision. Beyond that, agree that anything to get kids (and young adults) hooked would really help. I don’t think the dilemma is getting better anytime soon for all but a handful of franchises. Cable was the cash cow, and it’s dying. And the streaming businesses aren’t breaking their banks to get baseball rights the way the cable services did.
  12. jkcarew
    No. But based on prognostications…some day, Southern Miss WILL have a Hall Hall.
  13. jkcarew
    “Minnesota has grown a reputation for successfully developing mid- to late-round college arms in recent seasons…” Let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves here. The 2024 starting rotation is shaping up as 4 guys acquired in trades…and Bailey Ober. I don’t think advancing guys (Festa, etc) through the minors entitles declaration of ‘successful development’. That’s not the objective, nor is the objective to simply reach the majors (Varland). I’d give you ‘promising’ with the likes of these two and others, but successful is premature, IMO.
  14. jkcarew
    Even the desperate and destitute Royals waited until Witt had played 308 games. It’s a question that doesn’t yet need to be asked. One, two, years from now…doesn’t matter…Lewis and his advisors should have plenty incentive to extend at moderate terms (relative to performance) given his injury history.
  15. jkcarew
    Jim Fregosi had received MVP votes for 8 consecutive seasons heading into his age 29 season, so… Is it just me, or does the computer seem to dislike Wallner…and HATE Jeffers?? I get that Jeffers’ BABiP spiked a bit last year…but he’s going to be as valuable offensively as Castro?
  16. jkcarew
    Oops
  17. jkcarew
    I’m pretty sure the Twins were performing bone tests to mitigate this risk at least going back as far as Sano’s signing. He signed at 16. I think his results were reported as something like 16-17 or 16-18 (a range). Like all technology, I assume the test are more accurate now than then. Sad that it’s come to this, but when you look at the circumstances of most of these families, and then look at the money involved….just an overwhelming incentive for misrepresentation. And, in many cases they are ADVISED to misrepresent.
  18. jkcarew
    I have no idea how this works these days. In previous years a team would have to wait for (or help) a player get out of Cuba. Now a Cuban player can sign, leave, and join an MLB-affiliated minor league team whenever?
  19. jkcarew
    290 innings from proven veterans gone between Maeda and Gray. One took second in CY voting, the other provided 105 innings with ERA and FIP better than league average. Can Ryan add another 20 innings to his season load and at the same time cut down on his high HR allowed rate? Can Ober add another 20 innings and maintain his favorable results? Can Chris Paddack provide 120-140 effective(ish) innings? Does DeSlanfani work out even a little/kinda? Can Varland be better (than 2023’s 5+ FIP) when called upon? He gave up the long ball at a higher rate than even Ryan. Will injuries require the club to go deeper than this for significant innings? Heavy lift, IMO. If the club finishes 2024 in the top 4 in AL ERA like they did in 2023, it seems like that would require the bullpen to be better than it was in 2023…and probably throw more innings?
  20. jkcarew
    Fools gold to even hope regarding Buxton’s health. Having said that, if most of the other things mentioned in this thread happen, there’s a chance, regardless of Buxton. Time to expect others to lead this team. I remain confident in a bounce back for Correa in the absence of serious injury. Every under-the-covers 2023 number that exists says he was ridiculously unlucky last season.
  21. jkcarew
    I’m not fully educated regarding Raya’s raw stuff (across three pitches) as it would compare to Festa’s. But for me it would need to be significantly better than Festa’s for me to rank Raya higher as a prospect than Festa. Festa has the much better stature/frame for starting, and he’s much closer. Raya has a less-than-ideal frame and to this point, there’s no actual evidence that Raya can handle being a starter except for some opinions. Maybe this year we start getting more data on Raya working more consistently through 4+ innings, etc.
  22. jkcarew
    But the good news…come to think of it… We should be able to trade him even up for today’s equivalent of 27-year old Steve Carlton!
  23. jkcarew
    I seriously doubt DeSclafani is going to hit anything close to 6 home runs this year.
  24. jkcarew
    Weird to think that Lewis is SIX YEARS OLDER than Jenkins.
  25. jkcarew
    Yeah…I like that. Leading bWAR player on the team that beat us in the playoffs last year. I’d rather not be talking about Mantle, Trout, Harper. If Jenkins is the most gifted kid to come in the past decade, we would still have a 95% chance of disappointment if that’s our current bar for him. Does he have a higher ceiling than Tucker? Seems like it at this early stage. But I’d take the Kyle Tucker comp and no major injuries…in a heartbeat.
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