Twins 2023 Draft Class Off to a Fast Start

Nice starts by the players. It isn’t always the fastest horse out of the gate

So far 2019 draft class is their best draft.  I’ll say more soon.

1 hour ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

Cavaco is a massive miss, as was Canterino. That said, they got a TON of depth and guys that have turned into something from that class. Varland and Julien late, Isola in the 29th round. They did good there, yes.

Do not consider Canterino a miss.  No one can project injuries.  

They've been on a bit of a draft roll since 20198, IMO, even with Cavaco a reach that shouldn't have been taken. I'm going to argue against Canterino being a miss at this point. While injuries have probably deprived him of being anything close to the starting pitcher who dreamed of, I believe there's still a reasonable chance his TJ surgery gets his career back on track as a potentially strong back of the pen option. And there's still real value in that.

2020 was so weird based on covid. So little playing time lead to lesser evaluations of prospects, and the shear lack of size of the class was all odd. For the Twins, the jury is still out. I don't think Sabato is going to cut it. But Soularie is starting to look like the athletic, toolsy player he was supposed to be now that he's been staying healthy. Raya and Rosario are looking like legit prospects. 2 out of 4 would be pretty good, even with missing on the 1st pick.

A lot of 2021 is gone via trades. But those picks allowed the Twins to make those moves. On top of that, they still have Miller as a position player, a couple of decent looking catcher prospects in Cardenas and Winkel, and a couple other bats that haven't exactly looked bad. On the mound, they have top prospect Festa, decent prospect Nowlin, and a few other arms that have a shot. (Some of which are still barely getting their careers underway after immediate surgeries).

Last year's class is my favorite so far, even with questions about Prielipp's future in doubt. To get Lee was fantastic. We've seen some really good early looks from Schobel, Ross, Ortega and Cossett. And virtually every other arm has looked solid to great so far. Is it early? Absolutely. But this draft sure is looking promising so far.

And while I appreciate this article, and the early optimism, to me it's just too early to say, even with the early performances of Jenkins, Winokur, Keaschall, and Harry (who I expected little from, to be honest). But the arms just haven't had a chance to be unleashed yet, so I have to give 2023 a big incomplete right now. This time next year, however, it might be the best draft the FO has had.

1 hour ago, roger said:

Do not consider Canterino a miss.  

And he's not done yet. The Twins wouldn't be including him on the 40 man if he was.

9 minutes ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

That's a fair take, but there's not a great track record of health coming out of Rice. I'm still excited about him as a reliever.

Pretty sure that where a guy went to school is not really all that much of an indicator of future health.

Good article  and alot of good responses  ...

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

It is if they are from Rice

That kind of thinking is how stupid decisions are made

If a pitcher's arm ever came off during a game, I'd venture he went to college at Rice.

15 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Pretty sure that where a guy went to school is not really all that much of an indicator of future health.

 

Rice has a history of over using their pitchers so that many have developed arm issues or never make the majors

Alright lets get this topic back on track.   The 2023 Twins draft.  

I have said this draft has the potential to be a franchise altering draft.  Slightly hyperbole maybe,  but it had the the talent to achieve that.  

They drafted and signed 4 bats.  There is still a possibility they sign Parker this spring.  I would say that is a 50/50 possibility,  however all 4 bats are playing at a high level.  Jenkins looks the part of what many said was a #1 draft pick.  As of now,  nothing has popped up regarding his hips (good sign).  His power numbers will increase and as he continues to develop more muscle mass.  If his contact rates and eye discipline continue to be good you have an elite player on your hands.  

Winokur in the third was a massive swing (high bonus as well).  As of now it has paid off.   Had Jenkins had his numbers people in Twinkies land would have been pretty happy.   I really wanted him to move up with Jenkins but acknowledge you ended the season with a good note and continue to develop his skills.  You have the ability at another high end talent.  

Keaschall and Harry are both contacts hitters that looked destined to make it AAA and will then see if they can make it to the big leagues.  Harry is all effort and probably doesn't have quite the raw skills Keaschall does.  The Twins definitely seemed to have a more balanced approach of finding more contact hitters through out the drafts.  

As to the pitchers we haven't seen much.  So is this article early.  A tad, but honestly I don't even need to see them to know we are going to hit on several.  Currently the A and A+ ball coaches have been off the charts.  I would really like to see some articles on these guys,  because what they are doing with pitchers is amazing.  Increasing velocity,  redefining pitches, developing command.   The talent coming in this year is basically double of what we have had in previous drafts.  Soto has the ability to be a high end pitcher.  He has a slightly better build but seems very similar to Chase Petty.  You also added another high school pitcher in Questad.  I know very little on Quested.  Seems to be a lottery pick to me, high ceiling low floor in the 5th round.  

The college pitchers is where they will make their bread and butter.  Hall is an elite pitcher already.  I assume the Twins will add velocity and unless he has injury I have very little doubt he will have lots of success.  Santos was a signing bonus savings so not going to discuss much.  Stoffal Dougherty Dunn Langenberg, Pasqualotto and Lee are all pitchers that have more talent and ability than what we usually get in rounds 8-13.  Some are flame throwers, some were #1 pitchers in their system that struggle slightly last year, and some had injuries.  I could hope all succeed but we know that isn't likely.  If 2 of these develop its a great draft, if more than 2 develop we are back into my historic draft possibilities.  

That is ignoring the rest of the small school pitchers that we have had success in the past of developing.  Santos, Bengard, Silvas, Bragg, and Garcia.   

This was a pitching heavy draft with some big swings on hitter early.  If the hitters pan out,  which this article is stating we are well on our way to eclipsing the 2019 draft and in the realm of best drafts ever.  Yes it is early and we have seen prospects fizzle out.  As long as Jenkins performs we will be happy with this draft,  but I will be keeping a keen eye on those pitchers next year, and expect to be very happy with what I see.  

17 hours ago, DocBauer said:

They've been on a bit of a draft roll since 20198, IMO, even with Cavaco a reach that shouldn't have been taken. I'm going to argue against Canterino being a miss at this point. While injuries have probably deprived him of being anything close to the starting pitcher who dreamed of, I believe there's still a reasonable chance his TJ surgery gets his career back on track as a potentially strong back of the pen option. And there's still real value in that.

2020 was so weird based on covid. So little playing time lead to lesser evaluations of prospects, and the shear lack of size of the class was all odd. For the Twins, the jury is still out. I don't think Sabato is going to cut it. But Soularie is starting to look like the athletic, toolsy player he was supposed to be now that he's been staying healthy. Raya and Rosario are looking like legit prospects. 2 out of 4 would be pretty good, even with missing on the 1st pick.

A lot of 2021 is gone via trades. But those picks allowed the Twins to make those moves. On top of that, they still have Miller as a position player, a couple of decent looking catcher prospects in Cardenas and Winkel, and a couple other bats that haven't exactly looked bad. On the mound, they have top prospect Festa, decent prospect Nowlin, and a few other arms that have a shot. (Some of which are still barely getting their careers underway after immediate surgeries).

Last year's class is my favorite so far, even with questions about Prielipp's future in doubt. To get Lee was fantastic. We've seen some really good early looks from Schobel, Ross, Ortega and Cossett. And virtually every other arm has looked solid to great so far. Is it early? Absolutely. But this draft sure is looking promising so far.

And while I appreciate this article, and the early optimism, to me it's just too early to say, even with the early performances of Jenkins, Winokur, Keaschall, and Harry (who I expected little from, to be honest). But the arms just haven't had a chance to be unleashed yet, so I have to give 2023 a big incomplete right now. This time next year, however, it might be the best draft the FO has had.

2022 class appears to be very good.  Getting Lee was a gift.  If I were to stack these drafts on how I expect them to turn out I would currently  have ranked   2023, 2019, 2022, 2021.  Yes we traded away 2021 but I am ok with that.  

2022 with Lee immediately jumps that draft class up.  The number of hits in 2019 with still missing on Cavaco and Canterino so far is just crazy.  2022 can pass that 2019 class but you need close to all star numbers from Lee or some more players coming up to join him.  

Doc you have kept tabs on the minors for several years.  Do you have confidence that the A and A+ coaching staff can develop the current draft class.  You have to admit their talent and coming from higher level programs is much better than previous years.  Yes its still inconclusive, but unless something falls apart I don't see how at least 2-3 don't develop to be top 20 prospects.  

18 hours ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

That's a fair take, but there's not a great track record of health coming out of Rice. I'm still excited about him as a reliever.

No question about how Rice handles their pitchers.  Does that mean someone with awesome potential is available and he is from Rice you don't take him?  Expect that was the case with Canterino and the Twins are dealing with getting him back to good health.  Hopefully, the Rule 5 and other rules will give them time to get him to their roster before they are forced into losing him.  Still unbelievably high on him.  Whether that is as a starter, or more likely beginning his career in the pen.  Both work for me.

On 9/18/2023 at 11:18 AM, roger said:

No question about how Rice handles their pitchers.  Does that mean someone with awesome potential is available and he is from Rice you don't take him?  Expect that was the case with Canterino and the Twins are dealing with getting him back to good health.  Hopefully, the Rule 5 and other rules will give them time to get him to their roster before they are forced into losing him.  Still unbelievably high on him.  Whether that is as a starter, or more likely beginning his career in the pen.  Both work for me.

How does this work with injured minor leaguers?  Do they still have to be added to the 40-man at the same time if they're currently injured or is there some sort of exemption for long-term injuries at that level?

10 hours ago, Richmond Dude said:

How does this work with injured minor leaguers?  Do they still have to be added to the 40-man at the same time if they're currently injured or is there some sort of exemption for long-term injuries at that level?

No exemptions, which makes it difficult for adding to and maintaining the 40-man.