Why the Twins Shouldn't Re-Sign Nelson Cruz

I’ve loved Cruz as much as anybody but the last few weeks of the season he stopped hitting good sliders. I knew he was cooked then. If his market crashes to the point where we could get him for 6M, let’s do it. But I don’t think it will, the White Sox or Rangers will bite before then.

Cruz at $16 M is probably a tipping point of not signing him. If the universal DH doesn't come thru, which as time passes less likely it will happen IMO. We can sign him for considerably less, which should be our plan A. If we sign for less, we should be able to trade for an under paid SS or SS/CF utility (a FA might be then out of our budget) plus a pitcher

Cruz's stats has been great these 2 yrs. 2020 when most hitters slumped w/o the juiced ball, Cruz still put out respectable #s. Beyond the stats Cruz is the heart & soul of the team. Odds are that Cruz can`t maintain his great stats but his heart & soul will still be there.

I can see where you are coming from, Cody & I believe it'd be a great plan B

I've been a Cruz guy all off season    I usually say something like "He's our BEST hitter, and it's not even close."

However...

As the cold winter dims my memory of Cruz Bombas or clutch 2-out RBI's I've had to reconsider.

Steamer's projections certainly look realistic   I can see those stats more than a .290-.300 BA and .500 Slugging Percentage.

One question though:    

I don't claim to understand all the metrics of "Steamers" projections, but if Trevor Story has a higher batting average, OBP and Slugging Percentage than Cruz and his speed on the bases would allow him to score from 2nd on singles and from 1st on doubles---how can his wRC+ be LESS than Nellie's ???

Improving our defense at SS is a PLUS.

Getting Younger is a PLUS.

Getting more speed on the basepaths is a PLUS.

Adding a better Starting Pitcher to the rotation is a PLUS.

Adding another GOOD arm to the BP (Hand, Bradley, Hendricks) is a PLUS.

Adding someone like Ketel Marte would be a PLUS. (this would necessitate a trade of Polanco or Arraez for further improvements).  SP ??

I hate to say it but the well thought out articles about moving on from Nellie are changing my mind. 

And yes.  I could see the White Sox gobble Cruz up if we move in a different direction.  THAT would be hard to swallow but still probably the right thing to do.  

I don't want Cruz at any price. As noted earlier, he slowed down considerably in the second half last year. Slump? Injury? Age? There's no way to be sure. Will Rocco have a quick hook? What impact does it have on the team if Cruz stops hitting? Do you let him try to hit out of a slump, hide him on the bench? What affect does benching your "heart & soul" have on the rest of the team? The worst case scenario may be mistaking age related decline for a temporary slump and continuing to bat Cruz in the heart of the order through an extended period of ineffectiveness. By the time it's clear Cruz is washed up we may have wasted another season. I'd rather use the money to sign a defensive upgrade or pitcher(s). We have enough boppers in the lineup to effectively rotate the DH position. 

I've been a Cruz guy all off season    I usually say something like "He's our BEST hitter, and it's not even close."

However...

As the cold winter dims my memory of Cruz Bombas or clutch 2-out RBI's I've had to reconsider.

Steamer's projections certainly look realistic   I can see those stats more than a .290-.300 BA and .500 Slugging Percentage.

One question though:    

I don't claim to understand all the metrics of "Steamers" projections, but if Trevor Story has a higher batting average, OBP and Slugging Percentage than Cruz and his speed on the bases would allow him to score from 2nd on singles and from 1st on doubles---how can his wRC+ be LESS than Nellie's ???

Improving our defense at SS is a PLUS.

Getting Younger is a PLUS.

Getting more speed on the basepaths is a PLUS.

Adding a better Starting Pitcher to the rotation is a PLUS.

Adding another GOOD arm to the BP (Hand, Bradley, Hendricks) is a PLUS.

Adding someone like Ketel Marte would be a PLUS. (this would necessitate a trade of Polanco or Arraez for further improvements).  SP ??

I hate to say it but the well thought out articles about moving on from Nellie are changing my mind. 

And yes.  I could see the White Sox gobble Cruz up if we move in a different direction.  THAT would be hard to swallow but still probably the right thing to do.  

wRC+ takes ball park into account. Story playing half his games in Coor's field is considered has a significant impact on wRC+

Trading good prospects for 1 year rentals is horrible asset management. In this particular case, the asset is a SS and the free agent market has multiple good options this year and next. I am assuming the cost of the free agent SSs is going to be suppressed this year between 2021 revenue concerns and big market teams waiting for several great options to become available next year. 

I have said from beginning, if the price is right you sign him.  You have possible internal replacements so not like you will miss out on signing someone else who is a DH if you sign him to a spot.  However, if you pay too much to where you feel you need to ride him no matter how he does then that is a mistake.  

Basically, the front office needs to decide, what is the number they will be willing to just let go if father time finally wins.  If Cruz falls off the cliff, you cut him and be fine with the loss of the money.  The main question will be, how much that is, and will Cruz accept it?

That is always the issue for mid-market teams, if they invest too much money into players that just are not that good, can you walk away from the contract?  Even big market teams run into those issues with mega contracts.  Albert in LA is one that comes to mind.  He has been basically replacement or worse for 5 years now, but he makes too much money for team to just cut him. 

It makes little sense, you are paying him so much, and he is worse than an average player, why pay him to make your team worse?  His last 4 years he has had a negative war, but made over 100 mil.  That is a big price to pay for negative war.  So that contract cost them in WAR and he makes so much you feel you cannot cut him and pay a replacement, so it cost you double.  

As long as the Twins will not put themselves in the that type of situation, bring Cruz back.  He does have value in club house, from all reports, and that is something to consider too. 

*Throws holy water at Cody Pirkl*. THE POWER OF CHRIST COMPELS YOU!!

"If Cruz falls off the cliff, you cut him and be fine with the loss of the money.The main question will be, how much that is, and will Cruz accept it?"

If it was this easy I'd agree. The problem is, how long does he suck before you know he's toast and not just slumping? And if you start the season with him, what impact on the team when you cut him mid-season? There are too many ways for this to go wrong. Also, we do have other needs and other options at DH. It just looks to me like too much risk. 

Was all for signing him as long as it is one year or a second option year that doesn't have to be exercised if he doesn't perform to X in 2021. But you list so many reasons that I have to wonder if signing him is the wrong decision?

What I do know is that this front office is very patient and will wait for the right deal to come to them. Will be interesting to see what those deals are come opening day, related to Mr. Cruz and others.

I guess there's no rush as long as no other movements are being made.  Just frustrating as a fan because it's what we crave in the offseason...especially with no Twinsfest!!!

Everyone has very valid arguments that I guarantee the front office has thought of.  What's the value of signing Cruz if you knew he was going to the Sox say we didn't sign him?  That worth a few more million?  

If the Twins can sign Cruz to a similar deal to what they did in 2019 I think they should do it 100%. Cruz provides a very valuable, steady presence to the lineup. Look at all the hitters around him in the lineup in 2019 and 2020. Did any of them provide consistency even close to what Cruz did? Kepler went from .252/.336/.519 in 2019 to .228/.321/.439 in 2020. Sano went from .247/.346/.576 in 2019 to  .204/.278/.478 in 2020. Buxton provided some offensive stability in those 2 years going from .262/.314/.513 in 2019 to .254/.267/.577, but everybody knows about Buxton's injuries and his inability to consistently play long stretches of games. 

Let's look at Cruz's numbers in those 2 years. 2019: .311/.392/.639. 2020: .303/.397/.595. Forget about being the Twins best, most consistent hitter in those two years, he was also one of MLB's best, most consistent hitters in that time frame. Is he old compared to the league average? Of course. Was he old compared to the league average in 2019 and 2020? Yes he was. 

The Twins need a stable presence in their lineup especially now when they have some rookies coming up and they have other guys who have shown they can't replicate their numbers year over year. History shows Cruz can provide that stable presence. Resign him. 

Cruz and the Twins are waiting to see about the DL in the NL.... if it does go... Cruz will have many suitors and likely will not be back... if it is a no go we can go with a 2 year deal with a mutual option on year two.... at a reasonable price. 

We have other in house options if he does not return as well as a ton of FA that will be looking for jobs. 

More importantly we need to secure a SS and let Polanco be our super utility guy. Best for him and best for the team. Also have to work on one more starter and 3-4 more relief pitchers. 

We are in a VERY good spot so we should all relax and let our FO continue to do a great job. Patience at this point is in the Twins favor.... 

The reason I make a trade for Story is that i think he's head and shoulders better than Baez, Semien and Simmons.  I'd rather trade for Story over Baez (even with the "connection" between Baez and Berrios) because he's right there with Baez defensively and he's just flat out a better hitter.

I'd rather "SIGN" the SS (Semien, Simmons) from a standpoint of saving assets to improve other weak links on the roster.

Simmons is who I prefer because he's THE most elite defender at SS in baseball.  

He's also the most injury prone and while not an offensive liability is a #8, #9 hitter on the Twins.

Keep Cruz until he burns out. Make him a member of the coaching staff when he begins to rust. He is still a stud.

I would be ok with keeping Cruz next year, or even the year after (depending on what happens this year--I'd be very surprised if Cruz gets a two year contract where the second year isn't a vesting year based on performance, or a straight up team option).  That being said, I'm also good with not bringing him back--for a few reasons;

• There are some worrisome numbers in Cruz' profile.  In his amazing 2019 season, Cruz had a hard hit rate of 52.5%--that's 10 percentage points higher than any other season in his career (other than his 2005 debut season, where he only played 8 games).  In 2020, his pull rate dropped to it's lowest since 2007, and his swinging strike rate was the highest since 2009.  His contact rate was also his lowest since 2009, his zone contact rate was his lowest since 2015, and his HR/FB rate was his highest ever (again by 10 percentage points).
• Everyone comes back to Earth eventually.  Some people slowly decline, and therefore have soft landings.  Others don't decline, and therefore drop like a rock.  With someone who's declining, you can mitigate it by sitting them against tough same-sided pitching, or giving them more days completely off, or extra time at DH.  Nelson, unfortunately is in the second category--when he falls off, it will be sharp and sudden, mostly because he hasn't declined in his late 30's like most players.
• Keeping Cruz at DH limits the Twins ability to be flexible.  Without Cruz taking 90 to 90 percent of the DH PA's, you can give your players more rest, particularly your injury prone ones like Buxton, Donaldson, and Arraez while still keeping their bats in the lineup.

I can't understand why everyone seems to be giving up on Cruz. He was the ONLY Twin to get more than 1 hit in the playoffs and the only one to get an extra base hit. So much for the second half slump. Over 162 (or whatever) games, he can be rested enough to be fresher in the last half. I don't know his stats in the last half of the '19 season but he did ok in the loss to the Yankees. We need pitching more than anything and that should be the focus. If the NL decides to have the DH, Cruz may become too expensive but that will come later.

How about a trade ? Buxton for LeMahieu?

How about a trade ? Buxton for LeMahieu?

How do we trade for a free agent?

I agree with you Cody. Too many other needs. And in a practical sense, they had Crus the last two years and didn’t even win one playoff game.

Arraez and Polanco as IF depth sounds far superior to Adrianza and Marwin, both below average MLers.

You laid out a good case. The rotation is #1 priority and with erraticness of Buxton and Kepler, I think Michael Brantley would help and could easily get over 500 ABs. We can’t rely on any farm system starters although maybe a Duran could break through. So two rotation spots to fill.

Bottom line, greatest HR hitting team of all time didn’t work in playoffs....I think a more balanced team is necessary, which is where Brantley will help. Fingers crossed. I still like Maikel Franco as insurance for Donaldson and Sano, badly needed.