What to Make of the Twins Arraez-for-Lopez Trade Now

5 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

Hearing good things about a trade that is mutually beneficial is refreshing.  So often you hear people complain that a trade wasn't more beneficial to the home team.  Being in Maine, I only get news about the Red Sox and currently the discussion is all about front office changes.  A Boston reporter who covers the Red Sox said yesterday that the biggest cause of the decline of the Sox (and a major reason for the from office shakeup) is that the front office would only make trades that they perceived to be in favor of the Sox at a 70%/30% rate.  According to the reporter, Boston didn't finish several major trades last off-season because of this.  To me, that gives the Twins' front office a lot of positive points for the Arraez/Lopez trade.

It's a good point. If the only way you'll deal with a team is if you're screwing them, then why would anyone deal with you? there are going to be cases where one team values a player differently than another team, but for the most part there's going to be fairly close valuations.

2 hours ago, ashbury said:

Last year Miami's offense was third from the bottom in the majors. This year they are fourth from the bottom.

Last year the Twins' runs-against per game was around the middle of the pack. This year they rank fourth best.

A table-setter for a solid starting pitcher, assuming the talent evaluation and medicals all check out, is a trade I make every time.  Pitchers are inherently injury-prone but we know from experience that position-players miss time and see declining performance due to physical ailments too.  I liked the trade even when Arraez was hitting .400 earlier this season, and I like it now.  Setting the table wasn't any kind of panacea for Miami.

Gray blowing by his innings total from last year, a healthy/effective Ober, and the trickle down effect (for which Lopez also receives credit) from that reduced workload in the pen has likely played a massive role as well. 

Loved the trade at the time and would do it again in a heartbeat. That we got two prospects thrown in really helps. I enjoyed watching Arreaz sprinkling hits all over the field. But that’s it - can’t hit for power can’t run and below average in the field. For similar reasons I would trade high on Julien. 

The trade has been good for both teams and both teams would likely do it again.

Eventually, as to who wins the trade, may get down to José Salas and Byron Chourio.
Salas:  batting .188 for the Kernels, playing SS, I think.  Age: 20.
Chourio: 18 years old, assigned to Florida Complex League.

8 hours ago, Dman said:

No one in Minnesota liked losing Arraez and his bat was sorely missed the beginning of this season, but the team had a glut of players to plug into his position and had a great need for top of the rotation starters.  The Twins needed a Pablo type pitcher even more than keeping around one of the best hitters in the game which sounds crazy as I write this, but given Julien's OPS is currently .842 and Arraez is at .842 it sounds less crazy.  They get there in different ways but the production is close enough to cover for the lose of Arraez at least in IMO.  Don't like OPS then Julien's WRc+ is 135 and Arreaz 128.  Like War better Julien is at 2.3 and Arraez is at 3.1.  Pretty much anyway you slice it they are close enough and we didn't have anyone close to the level that Lopez is at.

Did I want the Twins to trade Arraez, No.  Do I think they made the right move Yes I do.

I like the trade. And I'm not disputing the stats of Julien vs Arraez. I just want to point out that the numbers accrued are based on less than 300 AB from Julien vs 550 from Arraez. So it's not a totally accurate comparison. 

Getting in late to this conversation! Like all of us, watching Luis perform at the plate was such fun. But - like many of us - I liked the trade from the start.

This past Sunday the 10th I was at Target Field to witness Pablo López pitch eight shutout innings with fourteen strikeouts. It was one of the most - perhaps the very most - dominant pitching performance I’ve witnessed in person in my 70 years.

True, the Twins bats were silent and we lost the game 2-0. But watching Pablo was just wonderful. Luis is fun, to be sure, but give me this front line pitching any day.

16 hours ago, Linus said:

Loved the trade at the time and would do it again in a heartbeat. That we got two prospects thrown in really helps. I enjoyed watching Arreaz sprinkling hits all over the field. But that’s it - can’t hit for power can’t run and below average in the field. For similar reasons I would trade high on Julien. 

Except Julien does hit for power and can run (he was a fine basestealer in the minors). Julien's weaknesses are: hitting LHP (which was an issue for Arraez as well, but so far in a small sample, Julien has been brutal there) and defense (has looked shaky at times and has a poor arm, but has done better lately).

Julien also has what...5 more seasons of team control? This is a guy who can be part of the core, especially if he starts figuring out how to hit lefties.

I miss Arraez: good guy, great hitter for average, fun player and adds a lot to the team. But we needed stalwarts in the rotation, and we got that in Lopez, who is also awfully fun to watch, is a good dude, an excellent pitcher, and adds a lot to the team. I don't think either team has any real regrets. It'll be interesting to see if Miami signs Arraez to a long-term deal and what the terms are if they do; signing Lopez to a below rate extension really makes me feel good about the Twins business in this one. And who knows? Maybe one of the prospects will show out.

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

Except Julien does hit for power and can run (he was a fine basestealer in the minors). Julien's weaknesses are: hitting LHP (which was an issue for Arraez as well, but so far in a small sample, Julien has been brutal there) and defense (has looked shaky at times and has a poor arm, but has done better lately).

Julien also has what...5 more seasons of team control? This is a guy who can be part of the core, especially if he starts figuring out how to hit lefties.

I miss Arraez: good guy, great hitter for average, fun player and adds a lot to the team. But we needed stalwarts in the rotation, and we got that in Lopez, who is also awfully fun to watch, is a good dude, an excellent pitcher, and adds a lot to the team. I don't think either team has any real regrets. It'll be interesting to see if Miami signs Arraez to a long-term deal and what the terms are if they do; signing Lopez to a below rate extension really makes me feel good about the Twins business in this one. And who knows? Maybe one of the prospects will show out.

Yea I wasn’t implying they are similar ball players rather I would trade Julien for similar reasons. Both players have a thing or things they do extremely well but also have serious weaknesses. I feel like Arreazs trade value was higher than his real value. I think the case might be the same for Julien. Of course I have no idea what other GMs would be willing to give up for Julien so we will never know. 

Trades where both teams get what they hoped/expected out of it are always good.  I was a fan of this trade from the outset and despite the fact that LA may become one of the few players to win a batting title in both leagues I still do.  We acquired a pitcher that will be our #1 for several years and we dealt from a position of strength:  We had Polanco firmly entrenched at 2B and we had Julien knocking on the door.  Add in that Royce Lewis also has the ability to play 2B (and Brooks Lee is on the way) and the trade was a no brainer for the Twins, especially when the 2 minor league talents were included.  

I thoroughly enjoyed watching LA play for the Twins.  But when DMan lists the offensive impact Julien has already had versus Arraez this season the trade isn't just a homerun for the Twins, it's a grand slam!  If Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda exit the Twins starting rotation this winter, we will need to come up with another trade like this to add talent and depth to our starting staff.   

It was a win/win then and it’s a win/win now