Week in Review: Momentum Killers

The Weekly Nutshell:
At the end of last week, we wondered if Minnesota's victory in the series finale against the Tigers might represent the start of a turnaround. Instead, the Twins opened the the week with another abjectly horrendous baseball game on Monday. Poor performance, bad decisions, ugly plate appearances, inexplicable lapses, the works. They lost their opener to the Mets in lopsided fashion and fell seven games below .500.

From there the Twins managed to start stabilizing with two straight wins, securing a rare series victory against New York. They were on their way to a third consecutive win against the Braves in Atlanta on Friday, leading 4-1 in the eighth inning, before a familiar story played out: they blew the lead and eviscerated their modest momentum. This gave way to a couple more lifeless losses on Saturday and Sunday, as the Twins helped the 5-13 Braves get right with a series sweep. 

With each passing series and week, this looks less like a slumping team and more like a flat-out terrible team. Let's unpack the carnage from another lousy week of Minnesota Twins baseball. 

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 4/14 through Sun, 4/20
***
Record Last Week: 2-4 (Overall: 7-15)
Run Differential Last Week: -7 (Overall: -20)
Standing: 4th Place in AL Central (6.5 GB) 

Last Week's Game Results:

Game 17 | NYM 5, MIN 1: Sloppy Defense, Sleepy Offense, Same Old

• Twins 1-through-3 hitters (Julien, Buxton, Castro): 0-12, 7 K

Game 18 | MIN 6, NYM 3: Twins Finally Conjure a Crisp Performance

• Offense: 5-14 RISP

Game 19 | MIN 4, NYM 3 (10): France's Walk-Off Hit Erases Jax's Lapse

• France: Walk-off single

Game 20 | ATL 6, MIN 4: Bullpen Implodes, Blows Another Late-Game Lead

• Jax: 0.1 IP, 4 ER

Game 21 | ATL 4, MIN 3: Twins Outplayed Yet Again as Close Losses Mount

• Twins 5-through-9 hitters: 2-15, 8 K 

Game 22 | ATL 6, MIN 2: Atlanta Completes Sweep as Twins Muster No Fight

• Offense: 0-7 RISP

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NEWS & NOTES

Last weekend, the Twins got back one of their four players who opened the season on the injured list, with Brooks Lee being activated to replace demoted José Miranda on the roster. This past week saw another join the fray, with a third taking his own step toward a somewhat imminent return.

Brock Stewart came out of the gates with gusto on his rehab assignment, pitching back-to-back days for Low-A Fort Myers on Tuesday and Wednesday. He struck out five of the six hitters he faced, and the Twins had seen enough. Stewart rejoined then roster on Saturday, with Kody Funderburk optioned back to the minors. Michael Tonkin opened up his own rehab stint at Fort Myers on Friday, pitching two shutout innings, so he could be back as soon as the coming week.

Royce Lewis is still a little further out, but he too is making strides. He was seen taking batting practice and fielding grounders at Target Field last week, and has reportedly advanced to "light baserunning." It looks like an activation around the start of May — in line with reasonable initial expectations — is within reach. 

As the Twins await Lewis's return, their infield depth continues to erode. Last week they demoted Miranda and then he quickly ended up on the Triple-A injured list after injuring his hand while shopping. (You can't make it up.) Carlos Correa exited Tuesday's game with wrist soreness, and then on Wednesday Willi Castro was forced out with a tight oblique. Both managed to avoid the injured list, though Castro did not play in a game the rest of the week. Add in Matt Wallner's hamstring strain, suffered while running the bases on Tuesday and leading to a rare IL trip for him, and the already struggling position-player corps is in rough shape.

To supplement their dwindling depth, the Twins acquired Jonah Bride from Miami for a cash exchange after he was designated for assignment. In a more exciting development, Minnesota also called up top prospect Luke Keaschall, optioning Mickey Gasper to Triple-A to make room. Keaschall made his major-league debut on Friday night, starting at DH. He delivered an RBI single in his first at-bat then stole a base, and added a double in his second trip. Talk about a breath of fresh air. Matt Canterino was designated for assignment to make room on the 40-man roster for Keaschall.

In some other good news, it's looking like the original assessments of Pablo López's hamstring injury as mild were accurate. He made a rehab start for the St. Paul Saints on Saturday and pitched very well, allowing one run in 4 ⅔ innings while throwing 43 of 63 pitches for strikes. He is eligible to return as soon as Thursday's series finale against the White Sox.

HIGHLIGHTS

For all the frustration that the early stage of this season has brought, watching Byron Buxton turn back the clock has been a thrilling exception. His play hasn't been stellar overall — too much whiffing, too many strikeouts — but Buxton has started almost all of the team's games and he is looking entirely uninhibited physically, which is something we haven't seen in ages. 

Buxton had a very good week at the plate, finishing 9-for-26 with with a homer, a triple and two steals, but he's also doing things that don't necessarily show up in the box score, like flying home from third on a contact play that few others would have scored on. With his speed and aggressiveness on the base paths playing a huge role, Buxton leads the Twins in runs scored with 17; no one else has more than 10.

The only other real bright spot of the past week was Keaschall, who definitely looks like he belongs in the big leagues. He followed up his strong debut by doubling in Saturday's game and reaching base twice on Sunday. Keaschall looks more comfortable and confident at the plate than a majority of the team's veteran hitters, which says a lot.

LOWLIGHTS

Griffin Jax just had the week from hell. His season was already off to a rough start before he blew three-run leads in the eighth innings of consecutive games on Wednesday and Friday. The Twins were able to recover and win the first, but weren't so lucky in the second. In three total appearances, Jax allowed seven earned runs on seven hits and two walks in 2 ⅓ innings, pushing his ERA for the season to 11.25.

I'm not going to sit here and argue that he's pitched well. But he hasn't been THAT bad. In a trend that dates back to spring training (where he had a .480 BABIP), Jax has been extraordinarily unlucky on balls in play, with seemingly every one turning into a hit. One can fairly argue that his lapses in execution and command are to blame for some of this, but it's beyond the pale. There will be regression to the mean. 

All of this is to say I'm not super worried about Jax, who has a 2.61 xFIP according to FanGraphs. But the damage has already been done. He's costing this team games. Jax's negative-0.97 WPA is second worst out of 214 MLB relievers. He needs to lock in.

Jax will justifiably receive the lion's share of blame for another momentum-shattering loss on Friday night, we shouldn't ignore the ongoing complicity of the offense in these bungled ballgames that continue to mount. The Twins scored four times in the first four innings of this game, and then completely shut down, managing just one infield single in the final five frames. 

The lineup can't find a pulse. They are unexplosive and unclutch. The Twins are tied for 24th in the majors in home runs with 16, and 12 of those have come with the bases empty, including all four they hit last in the past week. Twins hitters are slashing .161/.200/.210 with two extra-base hits, three walks and four RBIs in 85 "close and late" plate appearances, which helps explain why the team has been incapable of winning a tight game or regaining a lost lead.

Sunday's contest perfectly epitomized the offense's tendency to shrink in key moments. The Twins fell behind early thanks to a rough outing from Joe Ryan, but had a chance to chip away at Atlanta's lead in the middle innings, loading the bases with one out in both the fourth and fifth. They came away with one run, scored on a wild pitch. 

By failing to make any significant offseason moves to address an offense that collapsed down the stretch, the front office was putting its faith in rebounds from theoretically talented hitters who faded in the second half. They've gotten the opposite. 

Miranda was demoted after looking completely lost in his first few weeks of games. Edouard Julien probably should not be in the majors, much less batting leadoff – he went 2-for-21 with one walk in the past week, dropping his OPS below .600 for the season. Brooks Lee is looking very much like the punchless non-threat we saw as a rookie; he went 1-for-16 in his first full week since being recalled. DaShawn Keirsey Jr., being pushed into more extensive action with Wallner down, has a .211 OPS and pretty clearly cannot hit MLB pitching. 

There are just too many unproductive non-factors in this lineup day after day, and it's killing this team. The Twins have proven completely unequipped to win when the pitching staff is anything less than exceptional. In games where their opponent scores four or more runs – which is to say, an average number – they are 0-13 this year and have lost 24 straight going back to 2024. Difficult to comprehend.

TRENDING STORYLINE

Rocco Baldelli's seat is getting hotter and hotter. While it's a stretch to say he's fully or even primarily responsible for the dismal mess we're seeing on the field, the reality is that he's running the show and this kind of performance from a team with any kind of expectations, over such a prolonged period, gets managers fired. It would be difficult to argue at this juncture that he's having any kind of positive impact or resonating with the clubhouse at all.  

I'm not under the impression that a managerial shakeup is going to be some miracle cure and it might not change much at all, but sticking with the current setup is increasingly untenable. This team is out of sorts and in disarray, struggling across every phase of the game and exuding minimal confidence while repeatedly watching strike three sail by and moping back to the dugout. A fresh leadership voice could hardly hurt.

The biggest factor keeping Baldelli's job safe, perhaps, is an ownership that is detached and apathetic with one foot out the door. But if this team's issues continue to snowball, will that be enough to keep them standing by idly as the season disintegrates? Names worth watching as potential interim replacements include Jayce Tingler, who has considerable managerial experience, as well as Hank Conger and Tommy Watkins, who lack that experience but are very well liked. 

LOOKING AHEAD

This upcoming soft spot in the schedule has me of two minds. The Twins are returning to Target Field for a homestand that will feature series against the lowly White Sox and Angels, who were the two worst teams in the American League last year. On the one hand, it's an opportunity to get going and hopefully make some real inroads toward .500. On the other hand, if the Twins don't capitalize by going at least 4-2 against these bottom-feeding squads ... it's going to be really hard to muster any sort of hope for their outlook. 

We've already seen the Twins come out with one utterly lackluster effort against the White Sox this year. They can't afford anything else of that nature. Go win some games for the home fans and start the process of cleansing this horrific start from memory. 

My presumption is that López will slot back into the rotation, either for the series finale against Chicago or the opener against Los Angeles, but nothing has been officially announced as of yet.

TUESDAY, APRIL 22: WHITE SOX @ TWINS — RHP Davis Martin v. RHP Bailey Ober
WEDNESDAY, APRIL 23: WHITE SOX @ TWINS — LHP Martin Perez v. RHP David Festa
THURSDAY, APRIL 24: WHITE SOX @ TWINS — RHP Shane Smith v. RHP Chris Paddack
FRIDAY, APRIL 25: ANGELS @ TWINS — RHP Kyle Hendricks v. RHP Simeon Woods Richardson
SATURDAY, APRIL 26: ANGELS @ TWINS — LHP Yusei Kikuchi v. RHP Joe Ryan
SUNDAY, APRIL 27: ANGELS @ TWINS — RHP Jose Soriano v. RHP Bailey Ober