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It’s true that the Twins may have a bevy of choices for their rotation in 2023. Gray, Mahle, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Kenta Maeda, Josh Winder, Louie Varland and more figure to pitch meaningful innings. Gray and Mahle can be viewed as frontline starters with durability concerns, while Ryan and Ober are reasonable third and fourth options.
Even with this depth, the Twins still lack an ace.
The addition of a true No. 1 would propel this rotation from fairly solid to potentially very good. Carlos Rodón is the most logical target in free agency, although his list of suitors will be long and motivated. Beyond Rodón, the Twins could hope for a miracle signing of Jacob deGrom or Justin Verlander.
The trade market should be active for the Twins, with Max Kepler, Gio Urshela, Emilio Pagán and others potentially on the block. They’ve shown a propensity to deal for starters and should be looking to do so again. A sneaky target resides in Milwaukee, where the Brewers have key decisions to make this winter.
Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes have formed one of the best duos in baseball for the last two-plus years. Both are dominant right-handed workhorses with upper-90s fastballs and wipeout breaking stuff. The Brewers made the playoffs for four consecutive seasons before 2022, with their terrifying one-two punch being a key reason why.
Those days could be coming to an end. 2022 was a step back for Milwaukee, culminating in a trade of their star closer Josh Hader at the deadline. Both Woodruff and Burnes are free agents following the 2024 season with increasing prices in arbitration. With a below-average market and payroll, they’re extremely unlikely to extend both.
The Brewers have Freddy Peralta and Aaron Ashby, two promising young pitchers, under contract long term. A viable path would be to extend their Cy Young winner in Burnes while trading Woodruff for a significant package.
Woodruff, 29, is exactly the type of player the Twins should target. Since 2018, the 6-foot-4, 243 pound righty has posted a 3.06 ERA (137 ERA+) with an identical 3.06 FIP. Woodruff has notched three seasons in a row with an ERA at 3.05 or below. He’s one of the best, most consistent starters in the league.
Over the last five seasons, Woodruff ranks 15th among qualified starters in ERA+, ahead of the likes of Shane Bieber, Sandy Alcantara and Rodón. Woodruff’s 3.06 FIP is tied for the eighth best in the league and just behind Gerrit Cole (3.01) and Shohei Ohtani (3.04). Woodruff has struck out 10.8 batters per nine in that span, tied for the 11th best rate in baseball.
The Twins lack a starter with upper-90s velocity. Woodruff’s fastball averaged 96 mph with excellent carry in 2022. Among pitchers who faced at least 250 batters this year, Woodruff’s four-seamer ranked first in strikeout rate (35.6%) and third in whiff rate (28.5%). It’s an elite heater.
Often valuing fastball-centric pitchers, the Twins and Woodruff are a clear match. He also threw 150 or more innings in each of the past two seasons, filling another key workhorse hole in the Twins’ banged-up rotation. Woodruff makes all the sense in the world…
...for a hefty price.
Just how much in prospect capital would Woodruff cost? Well, a lot. Per Baseball Trade Values, Woodruff is graded at a median of 34.1 while Burnes is valued at 78.3. For perspective, these three differing packages satisfy the tool in a Woodruff trade.
PACKAGE 1: SS Brooks Lee
PACKAGE 2: OF Emmanuel Rodríguez, RHP Josh Winder, INF Austin Martin
PACKAGE 3: 2B Edouard Julien, SS Royce Lewis, RHP Simeon Woods Richardson
Ouch, right?
Beyond the prospect capital, Woodruff is expected to earn $11 million in his second-to-last year in arbitration. One can expect a reasonable raise to about $16 million in 2024, his final year before free agency. It’s essentially a two-year, $27 million deal. Woodruff’s addition would leave plenty of room to sign Carlos Correa or Xander Bogaerts.
What do you think? Is Brandon Woodruff as much of a slam dunk as I think he is? Comment below!
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