Three Offseason Decisions Already Hurting the Twins

3 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

...I wanted them fired if they didn't make the playoffs last year...

I think Joe Pohlad made it clear Falvey would be at risk for packing his bags if the Twins didn't "advance" in the playoffs last year during a mid-season 2023 interview.

I do believe ownership has some motive in cutting payroll beyond just profit. I suspect Falvey's seat is actually very hot. This is the last year of his contract if I'm not mistaken, and ownership has bailed Falvey out by pushing record setting payrolls and agreeing to superstar splash contracts late in the year both in 2022 and 2023. I don't like the "prove it" approach when the AL Central competition level is expected to be weak again this year, but there are comments in regard to building teams through drafting and development by Joe Pohlad this spring which align with the "prove it" methodology. Pohlad specifically mentioned Tampa Bay and Baltimore using the phrase "right size our business." The Twins have been spending higher than attendance in recent years in terms of MLB ranks. The expectation the Twins have the revenue/payroll to be competitive if the drafting and development system is in place is not unreasonable.

Bailey Ober is the only legitimate (back end) MLB caliber starter drafted/IL signed and developed by the Falvey front office in 7 years. That's not sustainable. That's literally worse than Terry Ryan  and Bill Smith whose mentionable guys actually produced real on the field value for the Twins rather than some other franchise.

Smith 4 drafts, 7 players 2008-2011 = Hicks (2008), Gibson (2009), Dozier (2009), Sano (2009), Polanco (2009), Kepler (2009), Rosario (2010) <--- Smith's results were by far the best IMHO with 4 players who became All Stars in 4 years.

Ryan 7 drafts, 11 players 2006-2007, 2012-2016 = Valencia (2006), Revere (2007), Buxton (2012), Berrios (2012), Duffey (2012), Rogers (2012), Garver (2013), Gordon (2014), Kirilloff (2016), Miranda (2016), Jax (2016), 2 All Stars.

Falvey 7 drafts, 10?+ players 2017-2023 = Lewis (2017), Ober (2017), Jeffers (2018), Funderburk (2018), Wallner* (2019), Julien (2019), Varland** (2019), Lee? (2022), Jenkins? (2023), Soto? (2023). I think Lewis, Jenkins and Soto could eventually become All Stars. Lewis' health issues are now absolutely a real problem.

*Wallner was first drafted by Terry Ryan's front office in 2016, same for Rooker who didn't provide much to MN so unlisted.
**Varland doesn't look like a legit starter, didn't highlight Duffey for Ryan, either.
 

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

Injuries have zero effect on Wallner's ABs, and likely zero effect on Santana's. Certainly Lewis's ABs have gone to some combination of Farmer/Castro. But Correa has lost less than a week.

I have a hard time blaming injury, particularly when Lewis is yet another soft tissue issue which seems to me to be less than bad luck.

Kepler last played April 6. With the way the Twins use people in multiple positions, you're saying that having Kepler available for an additional 10 games wouldn't have affected Wallner's playing time? Sorry, but I'm not seeing that.

And soft tissue, hard tissue, what does it matter? Lewis has two plate appearances and would have had a lot more if he was healthy. 

But whatever. Go ahead and allocate the 110+ plate appearances differently than I did (and I should have included Margot). The point still stands that guys who have sucked would have gotten a lot less at bats if those three were healthy.

EDIT to add: Sorry, I didn't realize that Wallner has as few plate appearances as he's had. It wouldn't have cut his plate appearances by the number I listed. But the 40-ish plate appearances Kepler has missed would have affected some combination of Wallner, Margot and Castro. 

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

And Jeffers has probably gotten more ABs with the injuries as he likely wouldn't be getting everyday ABs if not for the injuries. So they were forced to put their current best hitter in the lineup more. 

True. Though he DHed in the second game of the year, so apparently there was at least some willingness to use him as a DH when he wasn't catching. Since then, he's DHed three more times, so maybe that would have been one or two extra games. 

Look, we're never going to know the exact breakdown. But it doesn't change my argument. Guys who have sucked would have gotten a lot fewer plate appearances if Lewis, Correa and Kepler were healthy. 

6 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Today Santana has dropped to -0.5 WAR and Margot is -0.3.  

On a team where Castro is -0.2, Farmer is -0.3 it is hard to see what the FO saw coming into the season.  And I hate to say it Nick Gordon (-0.2 WAR) has a 124 OPS+ and 3 HRS. 

I know it is still early, 10% of the season so far and things can turn around, but how much faith do we have.  I know Max Kepler with his -0.4 WAR will come back.  We have sent down Wallner and are hoping AAAA Larnach can make the next half step.  

Buxton is doing great in the field, but his ABs are not what we expect. He has 0.2 Defensive WAR and -0.1 batting. Julien is not what we expect and does not erase Luis Arraez from our memories. 

Correa and his 0.3 WAR and Lewis are the infusion we need and I hope that Miranda keeps hitting and pushes Santana out (would our FO allow this?).

Miranda replacing Santana is the answer and it should be done as soon as Correa comes back. This probably means a DFA because I don't think anyone will trade for his contract. Maybe we can trade him during the DFA if we throw in a lower-level prospect and get a low level prospects back. He needs to be gone. Miranda plays third base when Kirilloff plays first base and Farmer/Castro plays third base against left-handed pitching when Kirilloff either sits or goes to DH. Miranda becomes part of the 1B/DH group when Lewis comes back.

In the outfield, move Buxton down the lineup to the six or seven hole and play Austin Martin every day in LF. Margot isn't bad as a 5th OF and can be in a platoon with a left-handed hitter in right field and as a day off guy. Right now it's Larnach and if he doesn't hit (likely result), Larnach goes when Kepler comes back.

Julien and Farmer I think I likely to come back to at least close to their basic levels of last year. Castro unfortunately is looking a lot like he did in Detroit. Last year may have been his career year.

Tomorrow is a day off. Here's what we do tomorrow and/or after Sunday's game when Kepler is ready to come back:

Pitching: Funderburk down, SWR up. SWR into rotation, Varland to bullpen.

Lineup: Santana DFA or traded for a lower-level prospect. Kepler back to roster in his spot, either Larnach back to AAA for Keirsey taking Santana's 40 man spot or if at all the sudden Larnach hits this weekend, he stays. Whichever one stays plays 2-3 games a week in left field or as a DH but Martin plays at least four or five days a week. Miranda is the starting third baseman and Kirilloff starts at first. Farmer plays short, Julien second, and Castro is a true utility player. Jeffers is the DH when he is not catching, plays every day. If there is a desire for another utility or backup infielder, Camargo goes to AAA but there isn't really anyone there to bring up who deserves it other than Diego Castillo and he is not on the 40 man roster. Maybe Bowman is the DFA candidate to create a spot and then Funderburk stays up.

Bottom line, significant changes need to be made soon. We've seen enough that this roster is flawed and is losing any sort of confidence or swagger. I do like to see Baldelli not starting Santana but I think a major shakeup is necessary and soon.

46 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Lewis' injury has had a significant effect for sure. Kepler sucked himself all spring and to start the season so replacing a sucking Kepler with a sucking anybody else doesn't really change much of anything. Arguing they're really missing his -56 OPS+ isn't a great selling point. Correa just got hurt and many of those ABs have been replaced with Jeffers DHing. It certainly matters, but it's not as drastic as you suggested. And when compared to Shane Bieber getting hurt for Cleveland it's pretty close since Lewis is the only injury that's significantly hurt the Twins to this point.

I'll put more weight on Kepler's career 103 OPS+, including the 110 over the past five years, than I will on a five-game sample. March/April is historically his second-best month if you want to add that to the historical context.

Regarding Bieber, you're overstating my argument. Go back to the original post and the one it was responding to.   

(Those were my last sentences on this discussion, which clearly isn't going to change anyone's perspective.) 

52 minutes ago, RpR said:

Santana is here because Kirilloff is poor with a glove; Miranda is no better than Kirilloff, that is why Santana is here.

Understood, but this team is not in a position to sacrifice offense for defense. We need bats. Santana is the better defender but by far the worst hitter of the three. He sits or goes away. We live with the defense of the other 2 to get their bats in the lineup.  IF we had 7 other guys who were good hitters we could opt for defense at 1B. We don't. That isn't going to change when guys come back from injury or "heat up". Let's look at the cast of characters that have run through this year's lineup. We have 3 consistently above average MLB hitters - Lewis, Jeffers, and Correa - 2 young guys who we think are at a least averageish now and who may be consistently above average MLB hitters some day, maybe even soon - Kirilloff and Julien - 2 veteran question marks who might be slightly better than average, might be average, might be worse, changes week to week and year to year, hard to say - Kepler and  Buxton - 2 young guys who need a chance and could be good, but might crap out - Martin and Miranda - 4 guys who are DEFINTIELY below average MLB hitters - Margot, Castro, Larnach, and Farmer - and 3 guys who are WAAAY below average MLB hitters - Vasquez, Santana, and Wallner (with the caveat that Wallner might come back up some but likely never to the "consistently above average" group). That's who we got so far. 

That lineup cannot sacrifice offense for defense at any position. We have to play the guys who can hit and try to get them better on the defensive side. Santana can not be allowed to start consistently. Frankly, he should be gone and he should take Margot and Larnach with him. We can have 2 guys on the bench for defense - Farmer and Vasquez - and play Buxton in CF while living with his inconsistent bat. That's it for defense over offense. The rest can't stay if they can't hit. Simple as that.