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Byron Buxton's 2026 season ended with another injury. Buxton's incapacitation derailed the team's push toward the postseason, but the bigger concern for the Minnesota Twins might be what happens next. Buxton underwent arthroscopic surgery on his right hip last week, with the Twins announcing that the procedure included a labral repair, decompression and cam resection. Some of that is just to relieve the hip impingement he dealt with all year, but the labral repair is more involved—and more ominous.
Nobody should pretend to be a doctor when discussing a complicated hip surgery. However, previous MLB cases involving labral repairs suggest a recovery that can take roughly 6-8 months. That timeline raises a question: Why did the Twins wait as long as they did to make this decision?
Buxton's last game came on August 25 in Sacramento. His surgery didn't take place until September 18. That's nearly four weeks between Buxton's final game and the procedure. The Twins quasi-officially shut Buxton down for the season on September 11, but another week passed before the surgery actually happened. By that point, Minnesota's postseason chances had dwindled to virtually nothing, anyway.
Even after he limped off the field against the A's, there was some hope that Buxton could return late in the season, but that increasingly looked like a long shot. Once that became clear, the argument for continuing to wait became much more difficult to understand. This is where the timeline becomes particularly important. Six months after Buxton's September 18 surgery lands on March 18. That's only one week before Opening Day. An eight-month recovery pushes his potential return to May 18, which would be 47 games into the 2027 season.
Obviously, recovery timelines aren't guaranteed. Buxton could progress faster. He could also require more time. The latter seems more likely, given Buxton’s extensive injury history. There are too many variables involved to declare a specific return date this far in advance. But that's exactly why those extra weeks mattered.
If the Twins had determined earlier that surgery was necessary, they could have started the recovery process sooner. Instead, they waited until late September to perform a procedure that could keep their best player out for a significant portion of the following season.
The most frustrating part is that the Twins had already been dealing with the hip issue for months. Buxton and manager Derek Shelton both expressed confidence before the surgery that Buxton would be ready for next season. The exact wording varied, particularly when it came to whether that meant being ready for spring training or Opening Day. That optimism now feels more like a pipe dream. If he'd had surgery three weeks sooner, the chances of being ready on time would certainly be better.
There is also a significant difference between saying a player will be "ready for next season" and having him physically prepared to play 162 games. That’s something few players accomplish in modern baseball, and Buxton has averaged 107 games per year over the last three seasons—the three healthiest campaigns he's had in the last decade. Even if Buxton avoids a major setback, a player returning from this type of surgery could need additional time to build strength and regain his normal workload.
The Twins have spent years trying to get the most out of Buxton while managing his injury history. Minnesota paid Buxton roughly $70 million through the first five seasons of the contract. FanGraphs estimates that he has provided approximately $122.5 million in value over that span. Even when he misses time, he provides remarkable value.
That makes the decision to sacrifice four weeks of recovery time even more difficult to understand. Maybe the surgery ultimately doesn't cost Buxton any games in 2027. Maybe his rehab goes perfectly and he's ready for Opening Day. But the Twins didn't need to gamble on that outcome. They had an opportunity to give Buxton more time to recover, and they didn't take it.
A Mistake that Could Linger into 2027
The Twins' decision to wait on Buxton's surgery is one of those choices that might not be fully judged until next season. If Buxton is healthy for Opening Day and plays a full season, the timing becomes a footnote. If he's forced to miss the beginning of the season because the recovery takes closer to eight months, those September weeks will look much more significant.
Minnesota already has plenty of questions to answer heading into the offseason. Payroll needs to be addressed, the roster needs more direction, and the organization needs to determine what kind of team it wants to build around its remaining core.
The last thing the Twins needed was to unnecessarily complicate their plans for their most important player. There was a point when waiting made sense, because Buxton was still trying to return. But once it became apparent that his season was effectively over, the clock should have started immediately. Instead, the Twins waited. Now, they have to hope those lost weeks don't come back to haunt them in April and May. Considering the usual recovery timeline for Buxton's surgery, that is a gamble the Twins probably didn't need to take.
Was it a mistake for the Twins to wait on Buxton’s surgery? Leave a comment and start the discussion.
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- Andy MacPhail, mikelink45, GV14218 and 2 others
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