The Twins Have Created Themselves a Platoon Disadvantage

This subject is obviously close to my heart. I've spent a lot of time thinking about it. 

1. The platoon advantage is real. It's harder for hitters to hit against the same hand. 

2. This is the first year that the front office set the roster with the intention of extreme platooning. The extreme platooning started during the season last year with the arrival of the young left-handed hitters.... Julien, Kirilloff and Wallner but the roster out of spring training wasn't set for this purpose... it became a necessity when they decided to shelter the youngsters.  

3, It worked last year... I didn't like it but the Twins offense got some decent miles out of it and it was the performance of the young left handed hitters that helped us immensely last year. They covered for poor performance from or the absence of big guns like Correa, Buxton, Gallo and Lewis.  

Here are the problems with it: 

1. While the platoon advantage is real. Julien may never have a reverse split because the platoon advantage is real but that doesn't mean that gap can't be closed through exposure. If Julien has an OPS of .800 against RHP and a .500 OPS against LHP... that's bad but if he can raise that OPS against left handers to .700 through exposure. You have an every day player that doesn't require a guy who hits .750 against left handers to handcuff to. 

2. It created an inflated impression of what the kids were capable of. Julien had nice numbers last year... so did Wallner. Would the numbers have been so nice if they had to absorb left handed pitching. Probably not but the lack of exposure and therefore lack of development against left handed pitching is an interstate that has no exit ramp. In order to maintain this philosophy you have to staff your roster with the right handed hitting equivalent. This leads to point #3. 

3. In order to set your opening day roster to this operational style. It requires you use up your extra position player inventory on players who hit left handers decently but don't hit right handers very well to fill the short side of the platoon. If you commit to this... it requires that you sign Luplow's... trade for Margots... Pay 6 million to Farmer... these guys are short side platoon guys because... they don't hit righties very well and they become your extra inventory of players and the guys they turn to when injuries or poor performance occur. 

4. If the Margot's and Farmers of the world hit righties well... and also lit up lefties. They wouldn't be short side platoon. They would play every day. You have to purposely go out and sign guys who can't hit righties just to keep the platoon operational and after the 1 year deal is done... they got to find more the following year to keep playing this game.  The only way to get out of this cycle is to find left handed hitters who can hit left handed pitching and you are not going to find those guys when you consistently don't let them be those guys. It's an endless cycle.   

5. Perhaps the worst part on the development side is this... When Austin Martin is called up... He goes into a short side spot. How does Austin Martin develop at the major league level waiting for a left hander to come around. Bottom line... this extreme platooning makes it hard to develop players while they are being strip mined for parts. The Twins CAN'T survive without development. We will not spend the money necessary to become self sufficient without a properly functioning farm system. The team will constantly be signing low level free agents to fill out the roster. 

6. Setting up your roster this way... Only works if everybody stays healthy. That never happens. It only works if the players perform at the level expected. Many times... they just don't.

7. By playing the platoon advantage to the extreme like the Twins do... they have actually turned it into a disadvantage because the real split they need to focus on is this. 75% of pitchers are right handers. They are rostering players to attack the 25% leaving the 75% vulnerable because your extra players who need to step in when injuries occur or poor performance occurs are not equipped to take on that 75%. If they want to play the platoon advantage. MORE LEFT HANDERS in the lineup. Attack the 75% and let them improve against the 25%. 

Don't get me started about pinch hitting for a guy in the 3rd inning like last year. OMG... that is simply not sensible. 

I've said this before... but... it's the number one issue with the Twins in my opinion... Even if it works just a little bit. 

2 minutes ago, lake_guy said:

And this is why someone in the Twins org needs to be held accountable for this approach.  They gotta have known this right?  right?!!

 

I always intend for my criticisms to be constructive.

I don't expect perfection and I have to assume that there are other things that they do well and throwing the baby out with the bathwater isn't always the best approach but yeah... I think they are wrong on this. 

I've been married for 34 years, I've been faithful, loyal to my family, I've been involved in the lives of my two sons for 30 years since the day they were born and they have turned out to be fantastic young men. I make a decent living, the house is paid for, I don't have a gambling or drinking problem, I mow the lawn and I take out the garbage.

However... I'm not very handy. I don't know what to do with a wrench because I'm not sure where the on-button is.  

My wife could have opted to trade me in for someone who can fix the plumbing but that someone may throw up on the living room carpet once a week and now she is looking again... when perfect just doesn't exist... unless she is lucky enough to get a guy like Ashbury. 

Ultimately... I will judge this front office on development because this team can't sustain success without it. 

I'm constructively saying that this level of platooning is hindering development and it guarantees that they will be constantly bargain basement shopping for guys who are beyond development.

The bill for strip mining will come due. 

Here's another point that has to be at least worth consideration 

Current Team Stats 2024:

Twins Team OPS Vs RHP .687 (Tied for 17th)

Twins Team OPS Vs LHP .739 (9th) 

We better be better against left handers because the roster construction this year has overwhelmingly from game one been:  

7 Right Handed Batters

4 Left handed batters

2 Switch Hitters

That's 9 right handed hitters against lefties. 6 left handed hitters against righties. 

If the platoon split is real and I believe it is. We better be better against left handed pitchers because we have loaded up against them. 

The 9th against 25% of the pitching is nice and all but the problem is going to be that tied for 17th against 75% of the pitching.

We got this backwards. We are chasing the wrong side of the equation with Margot, Santana and Farmer.   

11 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

I don't think I'm disagreeing, but part of the challenge is in the question of what you're going to do in the off-season loading up. 

Going into the offseason, you essentially had six guys who were considered to be every day players (barring injury): Catcher, Julien, Correa, Lewis, Buxton and Kepler. Four (but really five, since the Catcher is shared between two guys) of those are right handed, two left-handed. Then, you had three guys (Kirilloff, Larnach and Wallner, all left-handed) that you were generally planning to have in one or two roster spots.

The remaining spots went to Farmer and Castillo, who were already on the roster, but were non-tender options, and Santana and Margot, who were added. 

Barring trades, you weren't weren't going to change the first group of players. Two of the last quarter are switch hitters, so that helps the situation when trying to maximizing platoon splits. What are you going to do with the remaining spots? Are you suggesting they should have pursued lefties for Farmer and Margot's spots? The constant chatter we heard all offseason was that we've got too many left-handed hitters. The easy solution is to say, "Trade some of those lefties for righties," but that's easier said than done.

Maybe I am disagreeing, but I don't think the issue is that they chased the wrong side of the platoon -- the issue is that the guys who are most underperforming (Vazquez, Farmer and Margot) happen to all be right-handed. 

Trust Miranda/Julien/Kiriloff to play first base, for a starter. Don't use your scarce money on a backup. And another backup. And another backup. When you decide you won't have a good sized budget, you can't pay backups millions when you can use rookies for A LOT less.

Might not work, but then you either learned they rookies can't be relied on, or got them ready for next year, or it worked. Now? Now we have a bunch of mediocre veterans, and they still aren't producing....

19 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

I don't think I'm disagreeing, but part of the challenge is in the question of what you're going to do in the off-season loading up. 

Going into the offseason, you essentially had six guys who were considered to be every day players (barring injury): Catcher, Julien, Correa, Lewis, Buxton and Kepler. Four (but really five, since the Catcher is shared between two guys) of those are right handed, two left-handed. Then, you had three guys (Kirilloff, Larnach and Wallner, all left-handed) that you were generally planning to have in one or two roster spots.

The remaining spots went to Farmer and Castillo, who were already on the roster, but were non-tender options, and Santana and Margot, who were added. 

Barring trades, you weren't weren't going to change the first group of players. Two of the last quarter are switch hitters, so that helps the situation when trying to maximizing platoon splits. What are you going to do with the remaining spots? Are you suggesting they should have pursued lefties for Farmer and Margot's spots? The constant chatter we heard all offseason was that we've got too many left-handed hitters. The easy solution is to say, "Trade some of those lefties for righties," but that's easier said than done.

Maybe I am disagreeing, but I don't think the issue is that they chased the wrong side of the platoon -- the issue is that the guys who are most underperforming (Vazquez, Farmer and Margot) happen to all be right-handed. 

I think we agree that the off-season was when the boat got pushed into the river and I think they were hell bent on keeping Julien, Kirilloff and Wallner away from left handed pitching and this was what ended up being the river current. They didn't have any money to spend so... strip mining the best parts off of players was probably the strategy all along.  

I have a couple of discrepancies from your off-season outline. 

Going into the off-season we had:

The two catchers locked: Jeffers and Vazquez were going to get their playing time divided up however it got divided up. 

I believe that 5 players Lewis, Correa, Buxton, Polanco, Kepler were considered everyday guys. You have Julien listed as every day. He was not an every day guy. He was a platoon guy all last year and he has been a platoon guy this year. Julien was always going to require another player rostered to handle the short side. I didn't want to see that... but we are all powerless to stop this force.  

This leaves 6 non-everyday spots: 

IMO... Julien, Kirilloff, Wallner, Gordon and Castro were going to take 5 of those spots if they remained with the club. There was question mark on if the Twins would pick up the option for Farmer and they picked up the option on Nov. 2nd so Farmer took the last available spot at that point. There was also a question on Kepler's option but that was also picked up on Nov. 2nd as well. I think the moment they picked up Farmer's option... I think that was the first indication that strip mining through heavy platoon was the off-season plan. 

That's 13 guys. Gallo, Taylor and Solano were free agents that were not going to be retained. No room for any of them. On the Farm... the team would have Miranda, Larnach, Martin, Camargo and Severino on the 40 man. 

I believe the Twins wanted to continue shielding Julien, Kirilloff and Wallner from left handers so they would need three short siders to make that happen with only two in house. Castro and Farmer could hold down two of those spots but they were one short with Gordon being a left handed hitter.

Here comes a Key Point: If they only have two short side platoon bats and that's all they had. Two of Julien, Kirilloff, Wallner, Gordon would have to play every day. One had to be replaced by short side right handed hitter. 

They announced early in the offseason that budget was being cut so in my opinion... they probably had little to no money to work with. No Budget and Farmer costing 6 million is a pretty good indication for the platooning.  

If they would have done nothing: Here's how it looked in my opinion: 

Every day guys(5+1) Lewis (3B), Correa(SS), Buxton(CF), Polanco(1B), Kepler (RF) 

+1 - Kirilloff, Julien, Wallner, Polanco share the DH work with Kirilloff, Julien and Wallner rotating starts against left handers.     

Left Handed Platoon (2) Julien(2B), Wallner (LF)

Right handed Platoon (2) Farmer (2B), Castro (LF)

No Role floater (1) Gordon 

Catchers (2) Jeffers, Vazquez

4 important dates to follow January 29, February 7, February 11 and February 26

January 29: They trade Polanco which frees up 6.5 million dollars to work with because DeSclafini would cost them 4 million of the 10.5 that Polanco would cost. No major league offense returned in the trade. 

Here is how it looks after the trade: 

Every Day Guys (5): Lewis(3B), Correa(SS), Buxton(CF), Kepler(RF), Gordon (DH)   

Left handed Platoon(3): Kirilloff(1B), Julien(2B), Wallner(LF), 

Right handed platoon(3): Farmer(1B) Castro(2B), Martin(LF)

Catcher(2) Jeffers, Vazquez

Someone from the 40 man will get Polanco's 26 man spot. I'll go with Martin since he can be that right handed short side guy and Miranda is still recovering from surgery. If they want to protect, Julien, Wallner and Kirilloff from lefties. Gordon would have to become an everyday guy instead of Castro because Castro has to handcuff to someone and Gordon makes no sense being left handed. They will need 5 every day guys and they are one short after the Polanco trade. I'm sure they didn't like the idea of Gordon being the every day guy but the roster is now set up this way so they look for a free agent that can be acquired under the 6.5 million saved in the Polanco trade. 

February 7: They Sign Carlos Santana for 5 Million

So Lets send Miranda down to the minors to give Santana a 26 man spot and update: 

Every Day Guys(5+1): Lewis(3B), Correa(SS), Buxton(CF), Kepler(RF) Santana(1B)

+1: Kirilloff, Julien and Wallner rotate through the DH position against Left Handers. 

Left Handed Platoon(2) Julien(2B), Wallner(LF) 

Right Handed Platoon(2) Farmer(2B), Castro(LF)  

No Role Floater(1) Gordon

Catcher(2) Jeffers, Vazquez

They still need that Short Side Right handed Bat to protect he young left handers. 

February 11 - Nick Gordon is traded to the Marlins - No offense returns in the trade - Let's Update

Every Day Guys(5): Lewis(3B, Correa(SS), Buxton(CF), Kepler(RF), Santana(1B)

Left Handed Platoon(3): Julien(2B), Kirilloff(DH), Wallner(LF)

Right handed Platoon(3): Castro(2B), Farmer(DH), Martin(LF)

Catchers(2) Jeffers, Vazquez

They could have stopped here, the roster has the left/right handcuffs but I'd guess that they are not comfortable with Martin breaking camp with an opening day job. So they still have to find that right handed hitter. Outfield is the obvious spot. 

February 26: Twins trade for Margot 

There it is... A 26 man roster all balanced and pretty. With one problem. Those right handed bats would have to fill in for injuries should they occur and none of them have demonstrated the ability to hit right handed pitching.. So the roster is just fine providing nobody gets hurt or struggles. 

Every Day Guys(5): Lewis(3B), Correa(SS), Buxton(CF), Kepler(RF), Santana(1B)

Left Handed Platoon(3): Julien(2B), Kiriloff(DH), Wallner(LF)

Right Handed Platoon(3): Farmer(2B), Margot(DH), Castro(LF)

Catchers(2): Jeffers, Vazquez

Just a guess of course but I think I'm close to right. 

I think the key moment was when they picked up Farmer's option. I think that signified the Platoon heavy approach and the off-season was going to be how do they get there without money. 

So I am a little bit confused as to whether we're talking actual platooning, or are we talking PH, or are we talking both? It feels to be we're talking both as the one often leads to the other.

1} In the first few months of 2023 the Twins were at the absolute bottom of the league in AVG and OPS from PH. For whatever reasons, they were amongst the best in the league from around July on. Was that the players getting better at it, more comfortable? Or was it simply the law of averages correting back?

2} I don't have a major issue with PH in certain situations. In the past, there were a couple of times when Rocco really jumped the gun early in games and short sided the Twins the remainder of the game. I really haven't seen much of that as of late. Now, in the first game of the Houston series Friday evening, Julien was pulled in an RBI situation as the Astros had a lefty on the mound with reverse splits. So Rocco brought in Margot, and the Astros immediately countered with a righty...anyone could see this coming a mile away...and Margot hit a weak grounder, if I remember correctly. And now Julien was out for the remainder of the game. 

IMO, that was a poor way to use a PH strategy.

But let's talk platooning by itself. @Riverbrianhas really covered this at length now, and previously, so there's not much more to add. But:

1}It's a simply fact that generally speaking, LH hitters perform poorly against LHP. It's just a fact. Not all, but most. But it's the "not all" that is part of a larger issue. Until and unless someone gets the opportunity to face more, and see if they can adapt/learn to do so, you never know. Further, as was pointed out, a LH batter wouldn't have to be an All Star caliber hitter against same side arms to be valuable as a daily option, just not horrendous. Unless or until you have just seen enough of a player to just know it's never going to work, they should receive some opportunity to experience LHP and see what they might be capable of.

2} I have ZERO issue with the Twins philosophy of building their player roster and saying to themselves: "Hey, we need another OF here. And we could really use one that can play a good CF to help back up Buxton. Wouldn't it be great if he was a RH bat to help out against tough LHP?" Where I DO have a problem is when that player is signed ONLY because they can help against LHP. I don't mean to pick on Margot, but he's been close to average his whole career against LHP. Fine. But he's been pretty far below average against RHP. So a non great 25% usage short side platoon option to fill in a roster spot? How about a better hitter than him against RHP who can STILL beat up on LHP some? I understand we're talking about "better" player than Margot in this scenario, and maybe a more expensive one, but we're also talking about better value spent for the $. And what if that "better" player happens to be a rookie, or second year guy, etc? Then the $ affect goes out the window.

While $6M for Farmer as a reserve INF is pretty high, if he was the same player he was in 2023...leadership, defense, decent bat...he's arguably worth that kind of money. When he's performing about as bad as any player in the league, the $6M is a bad investment. When we add in what Margot has been doing...or not doing...as well as a poor offensive "2nd" catcher, the whole platoon situation takes on a life of it's own.

In short, signing, trading for, or promoting players who hit from the right side to complete the roster is NOT a bad idea to help offset the number of LH bats on the team, or to provide PH opportunities in games. What IS a bad idea is selecting those guys ONLY because they can be part of a short side platoon. How good of a ballplayer they are should be the primary consideration, NOT because they bat from a certain side.

39 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

1}It's a simply fact that generally speaking, LH hitters perform poorly against LHP. It's just a fact. Not all, but most. But it's the "not all" that is part of a larger issue. Until and unless someone gets the opportunity to face more, and see if they can adapt/learn to do so, you never know. Further, as was pointed out, a LH batter wouldn't have to be an All Star caliber hitter against same side arms to be valuable as a daily option, just not horrendous. Unless or until you have just seen enough of a player to just know it's never going to work, they should receive some opportunity to experience LHP and see what they might be capable of.

This paragraph is what makes it hard to sleep at night. 

1. Development - Not developing your young left handed hitters just forces you to continue to find these right handed compliment Margot types year after year where they will continue to get exposed to right handed pitching due to injuries. I'd like to see them escape this pillory that they willing binded themselves to so we can simply concentrate on rostering the best players possible at all times. And... And... if you look into the Twins future... This platoon thing gets a little scary looking when you notice that our top prospects are LEFT HANDED. ERod is a lefty... Jenkins is a lefty and Brooks Lee while a switch hitter thus far has significantly better splits batting right handed. Do these 3 get the same treatment as Julien, Kirilloff, Wallner, Larnach and now Kepler. Obviously there is plenty of land to cross before reaching this bridge too far but lets say Lee and Jenkins show up... lets say... next year. Do they get to face lefties... if not will the Twins revert to finally giving Julien a chance. Do they trade excess left handers whose valued they have lowered because they have been branded platoon players on purpose. How do you add Lee and ERod to the roster with all these wannabe Joc Pederson on your roster? I know we all have different ideas on what they should do but we are talking about what the Twins will do. They are clearly committed to this strip mining thing... so what happens when Lee, Erod and Jenkins hit town with this left hander against left hander fear going on. 

2. The part that I bolded of your quote is important. Just because a lefty hitter isn't as good against left handed pitchers... doesn't mean that the numbers are horrendous.

Using Kepler for example. Using On Base Percentage for easy down and dirty math. 

Career OBP vs RH - .329

Career OBP vs LH - .293

Over 100 AB's... Kepler reaches base 4 less times. One single AB... Kepler goes from a .33% chance of reaching base to a 29% chance of reaching base. We are rostering lesser players to just improve your odds potentially very very little. And that potential little improvement of odds are gone... vanished... flipped in the other direction every single time Farmer or Margot types have to face right handers and they will face more right handers than left handers. Because there are more Right handers and injuries are going to force the necessity of facing them. 

Just play the odds against the 75%. If you want to play the odds. 

11 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

As a long time fan I absolutely hate Roccos platoon system.  It's too rigid.  Maybe that's because he doesn't know how to actually manage a baseball game.

In order for Rocco to utilize this system. The roster has to be set up accordingly and it was set up accordingly. 

It clearly isn't Rocco's system alone. The front office and Rocco are rowing on the same oar.