The Minnesota Twins Need to Explore a Javier Báez Trade

Not to throw a wet blanket on this idea - but Baez had an absolutely abysmal 2020. His 2020 numbers were truly horrendous:

BA - .203

OBP - .238

OPS - .599

WAR - .9

There was talk that Javy's struggles had a lot to do with the rule changes that did not allow players to watch in game videos during games.  If that rule continues in 2021, it would be a pretty risky to trade away prospects for a one-year rental on a player whose game was devastated by the rule changes. 

This is a bad idea for a number of reasons.  Even if Cubs are embarking on a fire sale, Baez is their undisputed star and would cost a ton.  Why give up valuable prospects at a position that is loaded with very good FAs like Semien, Simmons and Didi who wouldn't cost any prospects.  Right now the Twins have crying needs for the bullpen, starters and a DH.  Likely our surplus of prospects could help fill these needs without breaking the bank.

It seems like some of the talk nationally about the Cubs retooling or rebuilding has been that they can't or shouldn't trade Báez or Bryant because they had rough years in 2020 and the return won't be worth it. However, if the Cubs really are motivated to sell, and that rough recent patch plus only one year of control left limits the price, then this is a very interesting idea.

Báez is a good shortstop, but IIRC he's also played some 2B and 3B, so this could be another plus. I know the idea if the Twins acquire another middle infielder is to move Polanco or Arráez to super-utility, but it's not guaranteed that that move would go smoothly, so having another player with positional versatility isn't a bad thing.

As always it depends on the cost. If the Twins can keep their top 6 or 7 best prospects it is probably worth trading for him and offering him the qualifying offer to recoup some of the prospect cost to acquire him.

Matthew, I was thinking the same thing. W/ his poor 2020  & last year of arbitrations his trade value is low. A couple of lower prospects should do it. I love his defense his hitting is icing on the cake. 

I think most of us agree that the Twins need a SS. I want one who is a really good defensive SS. There is enough hitting to make up for any lack of offense at SS. I would rather have Simmons for 3 years and keep our prospects,  than Baez for1 year. and trade away one or several of our top 20 prospects, one or more of whom will become solid ML players in a year or two. 

Totally agree w/ you that our priority should be a really good defensive SS. Simmons has been a great defensive SS & I'd love to have him, my only concern is his ankle injury, SS can be murder on ankles

The last thing this lineup needs is another high strikeout, low OBP bat that never walks. Defensively, sure he'd be nice to have, offensively absolutely not

To me the biggest reason to trade for him is the sisters. That's assuming that relationship can be used to get both tied to an expensive, but reasonable extension. Personally, I have no interest in trading for a one year rental...unless it can be done for a mid-level minor league guy...certainly not one of the top 6 or 7 prospects.

I don't know if this applies to you, Matt, but I find it interesting how many are calling for the Twins to overlook bad numbers from 2020 on somebody they should sign/trade for because of the small sample, rules, etc. Yet many are also calling for several Twins players to be shipped out of town because of their poor numbers in 2020. That leaves me scratching my head.

To me the biggest reason to trade for him is the sisters. That's assuming that relationship can be used to get both tied to an expensive, but reasonable extension. Personally, I have no interest in trading for a one year rental...unless it can be done for a mid-level minor league guy...certainly not one of the top 6 or 7 prospects.

 

Yeah, just think of the camaraderie, camaraderie is always a good thing & the motivation to sign mutual extensions                                                                               would be great. A trade like Sabato, a future                               power bat which have plenty & Gordon should do it. These are low valued prospects which wouldn't affect any trade attempt to get a top of the line pitcher

Obviously nobody wants Polanco to play short next season. Rumors have the Twins signing Semien. I would rather have Didi but would rather not trade for Baez- as good as he is. What does Lewis have left to do before getting a shot at becoming the regular shortstop? I'd put Polanco there, let Lewis back him up by playing twice a week to see what he can do. Otherwise, 3 years from now we'll be talking about why he never got a chance (though I'm not sold on him ever making it). If we are going to give up prospects, I'd rather do it for pitching.

Obviously nobody wants Polanco to play short next season. Rumors have the Twins signing Semien. I would rather have Didi but would rather not trade for Baez- as good as he is. What does Lewis have left to do before getting a shot at becoming the regular shortstop? I'd put Polanco there, let Lewis back him up by playing twice a week to see what he can do. Otherwise, 3 years from now we'll be talking about why he never got a chance (though I'm not sold on him ever making it). If we are going to give up prospects, I'd rather do it for pitching.

Hey, don't say nobody. I will be very happy if Polanco is the Twins shortstop in 2021. Hell, I'll be happy if anyone is at shortstop and we both have baseball and those of us that currently don't have FSN have it so we can watch the Twins.

I agree that adding a top defensive shortstop may make sense, moving Jorge to a super sub role. But that isn't all that likely and I will be fine with him at short, especially if he is healthy.

Yeah, just think of the camaraderie, camaraderie is always a good thing & the motivation to sign mutual extensions                                                                               would be great. A trade like Sabato, a future                               power bat which have plenty & Gordon should do it. These are low valued prospects which wouldn't affect any trade attempt to get a top of the line pitcher

Doc, I honestly don't have a clue what to expect from Sabato. If I recall, he was a stretch and not expected to go until later well into the next round. Then I read about what he did in college and comparisons to that kid from the Mets. I know his D at first is likely to put him at DH, but heck, if he hits anything like the Mets' kid I will be elated. Here's hoping for him to be another Jeffers who also had a lot of us wondering why the Twins took so high.

And memory serves that Jeffers' defense was also suspect and he worked hard and now is considered well above average. Could we catch lightening twice in the same bottle?

If all of this talk about the Twins wanting a SS are true...and I’m not convinced they are true...then that says the Twins are very far down the path of giving up on Lewis as an every-day major league shortstop. There’s no reason to expect that Lewis...right now...would be materially worse offensively than Baez or Semien were in 2020, or Semien has been every year other than 2019. This will be Lewis’s age 22 season. He was a #1 overall pick. Not a good look to be making significant moves for middle infielders as if he didn’t exist. Unless, of course, the Twins consider him insufficient defensively to fill a full-time super-utility role...or already consider him an outfielder.

I agree to a degree jkcarew.  We shouldn't have to wait until Lewis is 25 years old to see if he can play in the big leagues.

Get him up THIS year as the super-utility.

That allows you to devote $$$ to signing a difference maker like Bauer.

I have no problem considering a Baez trade.  But as was previously stated 2 guys between 5-15 as prospects should be the price.

What I LIKE about Baez is that he's tremendous defensively.  

He's also durable---which is why I slightly prefer him over Simmons but still think Simmons is a better move than Semien.

If you could get the Cubs to take Polanco and 10-15 prospect I'm willing.  

Until Polanco stops stepping in the bucket so bad, left-handed I'm not sure he gets back to his offensive level.  But he's wholly inadequate defensively.

Arraez is our 2B-man.  He's good with the bat, below average on "D."  

We need better infield "D."  

Sano and Polanco

for 

Baez and Bryant 

Sano and Baez are basically same financially with both being FA in 22.... Sano gets another shot at 3B in Chicago... Polanco takes over at SS at a lower price that the Cubs are clearly looking for...

Bryant takes over at 1st... and a shot at returning to stud production... Baez takes over at SS.... 

If we need to add a couple 2nd tier minor leaguers ... okay... 

Cost a bit but the upside is HUGE... 

So now that Rosario is gone, we are going to hate on Polanco? What’s wrong with him? Hes young, has some of the best at bats on the team, cheap contract, and solid on D

What the Padres lost in the Snell trade they almost made up on the Darvish trade. The trade would've been fairer if the Cubs left off Caratini in the trade. That shows me they really want to cut salary even if they take a loss. Of all the SS that's out there Baez excites me the most. If the Cubs are interested, we could get a good deal + a great SS. 

For those who think that it's a good idea to trade Polanco for Baez, have no idea how to value a trade. You need to look at history & potential but also the salary &  # of years of control.  Polanco is also an all star + better salary + I think 3 more yrs. of control than Baez which makes Polanco's value around 4x greater than Baez

Do we all evaluate Baez going forward as the player of 2020? If yes, we don't want him. Do we evaluate Polanco going forward as hobbled forever? If yes, get a shortstop soon. 

Until I hear that Polanco is no longer a capable player due to injuries, he is my starting shortstop and could easily be the pick by the players and managers to start at shortstop in the 2021 All Star Game. 

The only way I do this deal is under 2 situations.  First, he will agree to long term deal then the cost of prospects is mitigated.  Second, the cost of prospects is minimal and none of the top guys leave for a rental.  I am all for rental guys, but only if you are not giving up years of service time on top prospects for it.  

I am not concerned too much about his 2020 numbers as many guys had issues during 2020.  I just hate giving up top prospects for rentals.  However, if the price is right, no guy should be a flat out no.

Obviously nobody wants Polanco to play short next season. Rumors have the Twins signing Semien. I would rather have Didi but would rather not trade for Baez- as good as he is. What does Lewis have left to do before getting a shot at becoming the regular shortstop? I'd put Polanco there, let Lewis back him up by playing twice a week to see what he can do. Otherwise, 3 years from now we'll be talking about why he never got a chance (though I'm not sold on him ever making it). If we are going to give up prospects, I'd rather do it for pitching.

What does Lewis have to do? How about have 600 more at-bats in St. Paul? Even greatly gifted players need experience, and Lewis has had a couple of minor league seasons and valuable at-bats wiped out by injuries and COVID. Just being older doesn’t help. And playing him part time behind Polanco isn’t going to help that. Let him get his experience and confidence - or be prepared for three more years of complaining about how he’ll never hit - you know, the way people did about Buxton.