Road to 2026 Contention: Clearing the Kody Clemens Bar

I think Gabby Gonzalez gets on the 40 man to avoid the rule 5 draft. He's been the one centerpiece besides Topa of the Polanco trade. Losing him would make the trade a loss.

Clemens can stay, Outman can go

Move Wallner to 1B/DH

Trade Larnach for the best MLB reliever possible

Roden gets a chance in ST to show what he can do

Need to find some RH power if there’s any money available

Slash stats need large samples. A  full season isn’t enough. It would be tremendously foolish to make decisions based on a partial season of slash stats. Even more foolish to throw out the best games or worst games. All of that doesn’t make mathematical sense.

Instead of in season slash stats I think Statcast offer a better picture of how a player has hit the ball with their expected stats. Clemens and Keaschall are tied for third on the Twins behind Martin and Buxton by xwOBA. Clemens ranks 16th among first basemen with over 300 PAs.

1B - AL Central xwOBA

.347 Clemens (16)

.346 Torkelson (17)

.345 Pasquantino (18)

.342 Manzardo (20)

.319 Vargas (30)

I suppose we can ignore the quality of his contact this year. We can ignore how he started with the Twins. We can ignore his best game. Maybe that was all luck. 

42 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Just to piggy back on the spot on point you are making. 40 Man space decisions are going to make players available and if the clubs were right or wrong on these hard line decisions are just plain often undetermined. 

Rooker was DFA'd by the Royals. Before that he was traded to the Royals for a player that the Padres DFA'd a month later. Before that he was what I assume was a 40 man roster space clearing addition in the Rogers/Paddack deal that made room for Pagan.  

When you consider the opportunity that is typically provided to players like Rooker or Collins or Clemens once the 26 and 40 man space restrictions cut them loose due to predetermination. 

It's amazing that any outliers like Rooker or Collins or even Clemens happen at all... Yet against the opportunity restricted odds... they happen. People will say it's a rarity and not the norm. It is a rarity but quite possibly rare because of they stay on the edges watching others. The fact that it happens at all only points how bad these misses are and if they can miss... you wonder how many just faded off that could have been.  

How many of these Rooker roster space cuts just drifted off into the baseball wind with the potential to be a Rooker all along unrealized. It's impossible to answer. I'm sure many got the fate that was going to happen eventually but every Rooker or Clemens makes you wonder. 

Nobody is ever going to know the answer to that question because they are cut, gone. The organization will always be right when they control the outcome. Told ya they wouldn't make it. 

Clemens is getting opportunity now. Kudo's and Good Luck to him. He gets to represent a small group of outliers that just happened to land in the one spot where they get a chance. 

Position players might be harder to find, any bullpen would be the first spot to look. I could have also used the Brewer’s CF also. Lest someone thinks they can’t be a star after release, try Max Muncy. 

57 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

 How many of these Rooker roster space cuts just drifted off into the baseball wind with the potential to be a Rooker all along unrealized. It's impossible to answer. I'm sure many got the fate that was going to happen eventually but every Rooker or Clemens makes you wonder. 

Clemens is getting opportunity now. Kudo's and Good Luck to him. He gets to represent a small group of outliers that just happened to land in the one spot where they get a chance. 

     Rooker was/is a massive chasm in the outfield; a ball hit where Rooker was,,l had little chance of being a danger to the batter who hit it.

     Comparing him to Clemens is a bogus analogy.

4 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Lewis has not had a good season, but he's been a far better player than Lee by just about every measure. He's still only 26 and has been healthy for the last half of the season and his defense is more than satisfactory at third base. I'm not saying the club should be built around him, but I think he has showed enough to be the Twins' starting 3B in 2026.

On the position player side, having Clemens and Lee as regulars to start 2026 wouldn't be optimal, but I think they are major league players with pedigree (lee) and some performance (Clemens). In Clemens' case, he has performed at roughly league average for 100 games with the Twins (1.1 WAR), not what you want for a starting first baseman, but pretty good for a bench player, particularly one who can cover both corners in the outfield as well as first and second base. Lee's been a better defender as a shortstop and he's displayed some pop. As a starter the Twins would need more, but this version of Lee wouldn't be a bad backup and there are reasons to expect improvement next year. 

Lewis needs to spend this winter fixing his swing

 Call P Molitor to work with him

 And nail his back foot down.

2 hours ago, old nurse said:

It is an outlier, but not such an outlier the clubs don’t pick up the DFA people. If you look, you will find the clubs do have out liars. Milwaukee has Isaac Collins, their outfielder who has put up over 2 WAR

IMO, the Brewers should be the model the Twins aspire to. With payroll almost 1/2 of the Twins opening day payroll they have the best record in baseball and have won each of the series with the other current 5 division leaders: Blue Jays, Astros, Tigers, Dodgers, and Phillies. At one time they had all 5 opening day starters on the IL and now have 5 relievers, including their 2 frequent closers, out with injuries. By the way, the Brewers very effective closer use to be a Twin: McGill.

33 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

1. I'm not comparing him directly to Rooker. You are. 

2. Rooker was being used by another poster as an example of players who were tossed aside by other teams and also by the fans of those teams. Only to become something extraordinary after receiving the break of landing on the exact team that could actually provide opportunity and just happened to hit the ground running at the exact moment of that opportunity leading to another game followed by another game and eventually a long term contract and a future in the game of baseball. The comparison is that Rooker like Clemens was inches from selling cars and now he's home free. Not saying Kody is home free... not saying he will be a Rooker. These are two players who were inches from out of the game of baseball entirely. 

3. I get it... you didn't like Rooker's defense. As far as I'm concerned... He can DH or just let balls fall around him in the OF... if he can hit 30 plus home runs three years in a row like he's done... I just don't care. 

If the A's want to give him back to the Twins. I'll take him. The A's don't want to give him back... they signed him to a 5 year deal so he can call Coldwell Banker and talk real estate in Las Vegas. 

They can keep him.

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Clemens is how old? Just say no . 

Move Wallner to first or DH. Promote one of the AAA outfielders, or two. Trade Larnach for anything. Lee at short. Martin in left. 

Clemens was born in 1996. Larnach and Wallner 1997. The span between the three is about a year and a half. Rooker was just less than half year younger than Clemens when he got his first shot. He was good but not great that year with 2.1 WAR over a full season and a xwOBA of .343. That is pretty similar to Clemens. Clemens WAR is less but that is weighted by playing time. Rooker had his real breakout in his second full season. 

Wallner isn’t going to play 1B. I am certain it has been tried in college or summer league or the minors and wasn’t good enough to put in the game. There are no easy positions on the diamond. All positions take talent and skill. He fits best as a starting RF or DH. The challenge with Wallner is left handed starters. He isn’t very helpful on the bench when a lefty starts. He isn’t going to pinch run. He isn’t going to be a defensive sub. He isn’t the hitter you want pinch hitting with runners in scoring position and you need a ball in play. He hasn’t been successful coming in as a sub over his career with a .362 OPS.

The challenge with Clemens is you have to believe that this season is not an outlier. He is much more helpful off the bench with his average or better defense at multiple positions. He is also 4th in the team in BSR. Like Wallner he is prone to long slumps as a hitter.

The challenge with Larnach is that he has had enough plate appearances to believe that he isn’t going to be better. He isn’t that helpful off the bench either but probably a better option than Wallner to put the ball in play with a runner in scoring position.

Clemens and Wallner would both be in my roster next year. I would not plan to tender Larnach and try to find a trade partner with a similar player at catcher, reliever or middle infield that might benefit from a fresh start. 

2 hours ago, Larry Janisewski said:

IMO, the Brewers should be the model the Twins aspire to. With payroll almost 1/2 of the Twins opening day payroll they have the best record in baseball and have won each of the series with the other current 5 division leaders: Blue Jays, Astros, Tigers, Dodgers, and Phillies. At one time they had all 5 opening day starters on the IL and now have 5 relievers, including their 2 frequent closers, out with injuries. By the way, the Brewers very effective closer use to be a Twin: McGill.

I don’t know that anyone here is saying follow the Milwaukee blueprint but it has been an effective for at least getting into the playoffs 7 out of the last 8 years.  Don’t know this McGill fellow, but there is a Megel who played one year for the Twins  He got traded for a not good minor league reliever and somebody mysterious that goes by the name of cash. Probably goes by the nickname of 50K

2 hours ago, RpR said:

They can keep him.

Nobody said to do so. The argument was about picking up the scrap heap players

12 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Based on performance in 2025 and performance alone. Maybe just Buxton and Keaschall would out rank him on the Twins. 

Just looking at some cherry picked stats. (Using 233 Plate appearances as a marker... I wanted to make sure that Stanton and Varsho are included).

Only 22 players have a better AB/HR Ratio (Two are Twins Buxton and Wallner). 

He has a strikeout rate of .232. From those 22 players... Only Caminero, Juan Soto, Langaliers, Grisham, Springer and Carpenter have a better strikeout rate. 91.8 exit velocity, 49% hard hit rate. Only Buxton is better in both categories and not by much. 

Home Runs, Decent Contact, Strong exit velos and hard hit percentage. He runs well, aggressive on the bases and his defense is decent at multiple positions. If you keep hitting like that, the balls are going to find more grass. 

What's not to like about that? Streakiness? Age? 

When the clean up begins... he's not the first area to clean.  

 

 

Wallner and/or Larnach are not moving to 1B, that would have been done by now if the geniuses in the front office thought it would work.  I do not understand on every thread everybody keeps beating this drum.

Clemens would be a good fit at the 26th man on the bench  I would love to see us have higher expectations for the front office.  We keep talking up these retreads who have a very low ceiling.  Let's ask and expect for impact players that can contribute to a winning team. 

If they are not going to contend next year, play the kids and see if they can be difference makers.  Guys like Clemens are not going to be difference makers.  Honestly I would rather see Julien at 1B right now at least he has more history than Clemens of success.  It appears the Twins do not believe in Julien, if this is then why he is on the roster.  I can understand why people are skeptical of him, but if he is up here he should be playing over Clemens.

For those who are curious, Wallner has never played first base. Larnach played one game at 1B in his life during the summer of 2017 in the Cape Cod League. We can put that thought/wish to bed. 

Both guys are DH only. Ask around and see if anyone wants one of them and is willing to part with anything worth similar value. The guy left is our DH.

Clemens has been playing hard and that is laudable. I hope nobody on this site will miss him when he's gone.