One Year In, Rebuilt Twins Front Office Is Crushing It

Nice writeup Nick.  "Crushing it" is a bit hyperbolic at thios point, as others hjave pointed out, but their small moves have impressed so far - from the draft to their multiple player transactions to their recent use of intl. dollars.  Compared to the Ryan regime, these moves appear almost miraculous.

But before we annoit the new team the saviors of Twins baseball they face the most important month, December, in their year + regime.  With the MLB meetings next week, you can expect to see a flurry of activity.  From past years,one can expect the quality FA's and major trades to be completed by Xmas(although the Ohtani ordeal threatens some delay in the timing).  The Twins need one top-of-the-rotation starter, another starter that can slot in at #4 or #5, at least two and preferably three shutdown relievers, and one RH DH/1B who can fit into the middle of the order.

Yes,I know, this is a major shopping list but the time is right for the move.  The lineup is expected to improve, the veterans, Santana, Mauer, and Dozier have one, maybe two years left, and our pitching staff is substandard.  If the Twins fail to get one of the widely acknowledged top four FA starters they must do something that Ryan never did(at least with a successful outcome), that is, trade for a top starter, starting with names like Archer, Cobb, Stroman or Gerritt Cole by agressively packaging their prospects.  This would not only bring the Twins closer to contention for playoff success but show the players, fans and organization that this is a managment committed to winning it all.  That's why they were brought in(at least that was the hype) and if they fail in this task this offseason, then any accolades bestowed upon them will be just fluff.

I like the way this new mgt. has built the farm system so far but for now these are just crumbs.  They've really made three major decisions so far - hiring Rowson and Alston and rehiring Molitor.  The Rowson hiring is too soon to grade, though last year's improvement in hitting was encouraging(was this Rowson's doing or the young core learning from more abs?).  Molitor's rehiring was a gimmee after the Twin's 26 win improvement leading to MOY award.  The Alston hiring is still troubling as the Twins whiffed on hiring one of 3 or 4 well established pitching coaches available this offseason.  Hiring a proven pitching coach could only have hel;ped in attracting a better class of FA's.  Do the wonder boys know more that other exdecutives by bypassing these proven PC's or awere they just a little too full of themselves in trying to outsmart the competition.  Only time will tell but if they whiffed on the Alston pick the needed pitching improvement will be that much more difficult.  Was it worth the risk?

Haha, i was thinking the same thing.  Depending on how you look at that statement and the overall context of the piece it appears to just ooze arrogance.  That if you aren't super impressed with whats been done so far by the FO and are waiting for a high profile signing that you are somehow a casual bandwagon fan.....just insulting.  

Nick says he didn't mean it the way it came off to at least some of us, and I believe him.

And, honestly, I like a lot of what this FO has done.  For me, it's a welcome change in FO ways. So I wasn't really offended.  I just worry those kind of statements hurt overall conversation (which, again, I don't think Nick intended after he made his clarifying post) which is why I pointed it out.

There seems to be an emerging view that unless this front office somehow brings in a superstar starting pitcher such as Darvish, many will be disappointed by the “failure”. With a bit of circuitous logic, I guess it is a healthy sign that fans have moved on so quickly to greatly elevated expectations.

It isn't bringing in Darvish that has posters concerned. It's the fact they've done nothing to address the major issues in the rotation. The evaluation period is over and it's time for moves to start being made. I think that's all some want to see. Hopefully we have some clarity in the next few months. However, until some of those needs are addressed I don't thinks it's unfair to withhold applause for the new FO. 

The Orioles, White Sox, Mariners, and Dodgers have all acquired legitimate prospects (show up on the team's prospect list) in exchange for international bonus pool money. It doesn't happen a lot (and these might be the biggest international money trades made so far), but it isn't unheard of.

https://www.lonestarball.com/2017/7/15/15976792/texas-rangers-trade-yeyson-yrizarri-for-international-bonus-pool-money
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/mariners-trade-thyago-vieira-to-white-sox-for-international-bonus-money.html
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/07/orioles-acquire-yefry-ramirez-from-yankees-for-international-bonus-money.html
http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/blog/bs-sp-orioles-international-bonus-trades-20170802-story.html
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/07/rangers-acquire-international-bonus-slot-from-mariners.html
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/07/blue-jays-acquire-slot-money-from-dodgers.html

your list of trades makes me think that Falvey and Levine did well for their trades

How about this off season? Can we expect them to buy now? Or keep waiting?

If they don't buy this offseason then yes absolutely the FO has missed an opportunity to really change the direction of this franchise. 

The relievers were just fine in that game it was Santana and Berrios that gave up seven runs in five innings. Adding a veteran bat and a solid reliever wouldn't have helped, they needed a front of the rotation starter, and unless it was truly possibly to get Justin Verlander to waive his no trade clause to go to Minnesota when he knew that he could go to a better spot in Houston, there didn't appear to be any options for the Twins.

 

Early exits will continue to happen if the team doesn't significantly beef up the front of the rotation. If they don't do it this off season I'm going to be disappointed, but it did not appear possible to do what was necessary last July to actually win a championship.

Why can't it be a case of making an ill advised move but getting a positive result?

I was pushing for decisiveness at the deadline one way or another. Either sell big or bring in real help. Instead it was another "middle of the road," trade deadline for the Twins. 

I'm assuming we can agree that the team was better with Kintzler than some low level prospect. The way the game played out in October isn't particularly relevant to the argument being made against the decision making. The point was that the team was still in contention for that WC spot when the move was made. They had no idea if they would reach the WC game and if they did how much they would have to rely on the bullpen. If you're not making significant moves in one direction or another why trade away a late inning bullpen piece? Aren't you better off just keeping Kintzler at that point?

The reality is that Lavine is using the same roadmap that Ryan used but so far his moves are working out. And that's basically what we should expect. Both stayed cheap in FA, signed discount bullpen arms. Both signed rule v picks and made waiver claims, let young guys play, traded off upcoming FA, etc. 

 

Our payroll was bottom third last year. I expect it will remain bottom third for the foreseeable future. So Levine is going to have to make trades, find FA bargains and rely on young players. That's more or less been what the Twins have had to do for 25 years and it'll continue. I liked last years draft but I'm not ready to put it ahead of 2012 or 2016 (the secret of all three drafts was the number of picks in the first few rounds, not necessarily high draft position). IBP money for prospects is fine with me. I'd have been fine with them signing someone, too. Just so long as they use it. We won't know how good Lavine is for several years but I like him a lot and think he'll be a very good GM. But I do think we should wait a little bit for all this excitement.  

 

Being restricted in the same way is not the same as operating the same way. My biggest encouragement with the new FO is that they attempting to find every little advantage that they can instead of walking the line. The new FO was very creative going underslot/overslot to get players that they wanted and maximize the draft. They were creative and turned Ynoa and 4M into two better prospects. They traded Kintzler for a prospect and int'l cap money. They have a lot of surplus int'l cap money due to some sort of fiasco (I am suspicious of something...) and they turned it into two legit prospects that they didn't even have to spend money on.

These moves don't even need to work out and in fact none of them have yet. We can see however that they aren't restrained to thinking inside a box.

Making a "splash" for Darvish might be the beginning of drowning in a dead contract.

I'm not a big fan of signing guys north of 30 to long term (greater than 2 years) contracts.  Darvish is 31.  It's just not worth the risk to me.  Granted, Erv has worked out great, but I feel like he is the exception to the rule.

So, basically, never sign a free agent and the owner pockets the money? We worry a lot about efficiency, but if the alternative is more profit, how is that good?

No, notice that I said to a "long term deal" which is what Darvish would demand.  Erv has worked out, but the math doesn't lie.  30+ years is not prime time and 4 years of not prime time for a lot of money is not a good investment.

Good free agents aren't signing short deals. So, only flyers or old or bad free agents?

Definition of a "good free agent"...I think that is where we disagree.  A good pitching free agent to me is 28 and in his prime.  Not 31 and near or at the end of his prime.  The odds of guys pitching with success past 32 is small.  Why make a big bet on those small odds?