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Clearly, the bat hasn't yet come around for Buxton. He has taken a step backward following last year's late surge, and sits with the fifth-worst OPS in the majors as we approach the halfway point. Nevertheless, he is maintaining a positive WAR (0.8 according to BR, 0.5 according to FG).
He is managing to make himself an essential everyday player, by chipping in defensively in ways that are extraordinary – though difficult to fully appraise.
Fielding metrics love him. FanGraphs has the center fielder tied with Colorado's DJ LeMahieu for fifth in the majors in defensive runs saved (DRS), at nine. The site also has Buck in the Top 10 for Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR). According to StatCast, he leads the league in four-star plays (26-50% probability) and is 12-for-12 on such opportunities.
Some of these statistics try to quantify the tangible value of Buxton's defensive contributions, and do so generously. But can they truly encompass the extent of his impact? Sure, a calculation can spit out a "runs saved" number by comparing plays against baseline probabilities and running them through scoring matrixes (as DRS does), but Buxton helps the Twins in ways that go beyond measurement.
Consider this scenario. A shaky pitcher is struggling with his command in the early innings. He's got a runner on first with one out. He hangs one over the plate, and the batter drives it deep into a gap.
After a great read, Buxton makes a catch at full speed that virtually any other center fielder fails to make. Most don't come close.
The baserunner, already rounding second, slams the brakes and scurries back. The pitcher, pounding his mitt in celebration, now has a runner on first with two outs rather than a run in, a man on second or third, and one out. (In other words, a rally.)
He gets a grounder and escapes the inning. Buxton has not only saved runs, but also further physical and mental taxation for his teammate on the mound.
This isn't a hypothetical situation. It has played out, in some form, time and time again. I don't feel like I'm stretching it to say that Buxton's consistent presence in center has been THE biggest difference-maker for Twins pitching this year.
Although the team ERA has improved, from 5.08 to 4.87, the FIP (Fielding Independent) mark has inflated substantially from 4.57 to 5.05. You can make a good case the staff has actually pitched worse, just with much better support.
Other players are doing nice things defensively, and Jason Castro deserves his share of credit, but no one has changed games like Buxton. He deserves way more credit for this team's position five games above .500 than he is generally receiving.
And that's without providing much of anything with his bat. We will have to keep waiting on that, and cases like Aaron Hicks remind us these things can take time, but I continue to believe Buxton is far too talented and eminently capable to not figure things out at the plate rather soon.
Once he does, his rise to elite stardom will be as direct as his path to silencing a screaming liner.







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