Five Takeaways for the 2021 Twins

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

Bit revisionist history, yes? Baddoo was coming off a significant injury and the missing pandemic minor league year and in his last organized play year hadn't actually done anything of note (slash line of .214/.290/.393) and hadn't taken a single AB above A-ball. The decision was never "protect Cave or Baddoo"; Cave was someone who had 2 years of success at the MLB level for the Twins (and a poor pandemic year) and was well-suited to be a 4th OF...and broke his back this season. How can you let Baddoo go? Because you're betting that no team is going to be willing to keep a completely unproven player on the roster for a full season when he missed 1 1/2 seasons of development. It's the same kind of bet that they made on Miranda, and it went well. But the choice at the time was keep Baddoo or keep one of Celestino/Rortvedt, both of whom were more likely bets to be taken in the Rule 5. (backup catchers who can field and call a game can be stashed on a roster even if they can't hit, and proven defenders in CF are easier to hang onto as well because both can still add value even if they're not ready to hit at MLB)

I'm happy with Gordon's development so far and pleased to see him get the  chance with the Twins. He's never going to hit for power, but he's got a good feel for the strike zone and if he can get on base at a good clip, give speed and positional flexibility off the bench, then he'll be a nice utility option.

This is spot on. and I heart it a second time here.

Also I bet Cave will hit better and even around where he hit in the past now that his injury is behind him.  or in "back" of him....

4 minutes ago, Brandon said:

This is spot on. and I heart it a second time here.

 

Tigers took a shot at a formerly highly discussed 5-tool guy. Worst that happens is they pay a small charge and give him back. We didn't screw up here. Sucks. 

11 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

Eh. I think we just agree to disagree. The farm system when he took over had 4 top 100 prospects in it, now we have two according to BA midseason top 100. The system had Kiriloff, Garver, Baddoo, Arraez, Chargois, and Wade who all look like solid MLers as well as a number of UI/AAAA types plus a few more who are still around. There is no Buxton/Berrios in that group but it's a solid group. Looking at our current list, we still don't have any Buxton/Berrios types* but a few that could certainly turn out to be solid MLers. But several of the players you listed I'm already souring on - Sabato is overwhelmed at low A, Enlow might not be protected on the 40 man this offseason. I like Balzovic (who Falvey inherited) and I like Windor and the pitchers we got in the Cruz trade.

But I don't think the farm system has improved that much in five years despite being given more payroll than previous teams. The Larnich/Jeffers draft was great and COVID mucked a lot of things up so it's hard to grade the 2020 draft of the development of recently drafted players. But the nucleus that Falvey got was going to win some games, no matter who was the GM. I don't think he did enough to keep that window open and I don't think he's done a good job creating a pitching pipeline.

* I loved the Petty pick, but too early to put him in the Berrios category.

I thought we were talking about pitching.  Your argument seems to be they were ranked high but why do we care how they were ranked when we now know how they have performed?   What did that system produce for pitching?   We can evaluate based on results and that group produced virtually nothing in terms of pitching.  We don't know how this group will rate 5 years from now when we can evaluate based on results.  I would be willing to bet we get a whole lot more pitching out of the current system plus whoever they get for Berrios/Pineda assuming they are dealt.

The toughest job is 40-man roster construction. Who to protect, who to jettison, who to forget, who to hide. Baddoo was hidden, waaaay back in the minors due to injuries. Taking him was taking a big chance. He was behind Celestino and Larnach and Kirilloff and Rooker....so he was waaaaaay out of the picture.

You keep a Cave (or a LaMonte Wade) as off-season 40-man adds have to stay on the roster unless traded until spring training is way underway. So you need a player or three to jettison if you sign a free agent.

Miranda was missed? Well, the Twins don't see fit to add and bring up the guy, so it was doubtful that any other team would also make that choice.

The Twins, going into 2021, needed to sign a top of the rotation starter on the level or Berrios.2, Someone a year or two older that is deserving of a longterm multi tens of millions contract. They didn't. They went to the slush pile of Shoemaker, Happ and Pineda, with the hopes that Ballazovic and Duran would need innings and these guys could be happily flipped at the trading deadline for riches.

The Twins needed a bonafide closer. Not a closer by committee,. No a diamond in the rough. Not someone who Wes Johnson could magically transform. They didn't. Sure, they lost Clippard and Romo and Wisler and whatever. They also lost May, who might've been closer material and really didn't go for an outrageous contract. But instead they have gone to the trash-heap. Look at all the names waiting in the wings: Shepherd, Leyer, Hamilton, Albers, Nunn, Barraclough, Gilmartin, Lau, Garcia, Vincent, Harvey, Williams not to mention time and money spent on Coulombe, Law, Farrell, Anderson, Minaya, Waddell...and don't get me talking Colome and Robles. Let's put all that cha-ting into one contract and get someone actually good. 

And on offense, it all revolves around Sano, where and how much he plays, when he wants to play. At some point, you make it a non-issue and someone else's problem. Plus, yes, you could've kept Wade (or Baddoo) and rode without Cave. The Twins showed there is plenty of outfielders of that status to be had putting Garlick, Refsnyder and almost Broxton into the mix. Okay, Baddoo wasn't on the cusp (like Lrnach and Kirilloff) so he was blocked, blocked, blocked folks. Agree with that. He was 10 spots away from the Twins in the minds of the front office, depending on what he would do in a full-season of play in AA ball, soemthing Celestino should be doing rather than running around in the majors.

Is it hard to sign starting pitchers? Then the Twins needed to be the best friend Jose Berrios ever had and figure out a way to keep him. DO you like what you see rather than spin blindfolded and buy in the open market? Then you keep your Trevor May. You resign Byron Buxton because he is Mr. Twin right now. You show other players that the Twins can be your lifetime in the majors leagues, not just a losing steppingstone to bigger markets and contracts elsewhere where you are forgotten (Johan, are you listening...what did New York do for you - you would've been KING of Minnesota baseball).

Us fans have to realize that running a team IS HARDER than sitting in our armchair and dreaming up trades that get rid of mediocre players for great ones, advancing prospects before they are ready, shuffling names on and off a roster not realizing that they do have to go somewhere.

Right now, let's recognize the NEWE core the Twins have to build around, what that core will cost tomorrow and five years into the future, and what needs to be done to supplement it. Supposedly money isn't an issue. If the fan base returns, totally in 2022 then the Twins should be looking at $150m+ for payroll. There is absolutely no reason they can't be competitive in the top free agent market.

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

I remember when Sano was expected to be a great third baseman with an elite bat. Then maybe just a solid 3rd baseman with a very good bat. Then, well, at least his athleticism and reach will make him a great 1st baseman and he'll still have a good bat. Well, maybe he's passable at 1st base, and if he's just solidly above average at the plate. I mean... how bad can a first baseman really be, and he had a great year a couple years ago! Ah ****... well, we can put him at DH and his bat is still league average after a nice 2 week hot streak. That's what we all expected, after all, and maybe the $9.25MM is an ever so slight overpay for a guy who has a negative fWAR, but negative WAR values never hurt a team!

The only way Miguel Sano should be on the Twins' roster in 2022 is if they don't expect to compete.

LOL, I remember well when all the talk to put the Twins back in the play-offs were the wunder kindt of Buxton, Hicks and Sano.

It seems talk of wunder kindt never stops, it just changes names.

We need veterans for at least two full years, so years like 2019 last more than one year, then the dreamers will know if their wunder kindt panned out.

The bubble has quickly burst for Rocco and this coaching staff. Not one pitcher has shown marked improvement under the tutelage of Wes Johnson, and nearly every hitter has regressed to the point of embarrassment under Rudy Hernandez and Edgar Varella. Watkins and Diaz are below average. Not sure this group is equipped for the job…too much bubble gum and not enough chewing tobacco in the dugout.

When will the statute of limitations run out on blaming Terry Ryan?  

8 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

At the risk of stating the obvious, I think a lot of the mistakes were based on overestimating the core talent in place and thinking the team would be playoff competitive this year if we just filled some holes in the complimentary group.  That's why you keep a Cave around as a 4th/5th OF (which costs you a 40 man spot for Badoo), bring in Robles and Colome, look for veteran 4th/5th starters like Happ and Shoemaker, and sign a bunch of 30 year old relievers to be available at AAA (although Coloumbe has been pretty good).

The real problem is that the middle of the order core turned out to be a bunch of inconsistent complimentary players, not lineup anchors. Sano is maddeningly inconsistent and shouldn't be hitting higher than 6 or 7 on a good team, and really is a streaky DH/bench player on a good team. Kepler is a 3rd/4th OF with a good corner glove/avg CF glove who can't really hit. Shouldn't hit higher than #7 in the order on a good team.  Berrios is a solid 2/strong #3 starter not a #1, and Maeda is a #3, not a #2.  Polanco can hit in your top 5 or 6 in the order, but he can only be a decent 2B, not really a SS. Same for Arraez with even less field value. Donaldson is good, but not great, Buxton still gets hurt all the time, and the BP is Rogers, with Duffy as a decent but not closer or 8th inning piece, and then a crapshoot.  This isn't a core to supplement, it's a supplement looking for a core. 

Well, now we know. We do have part of the core in Garver and Buxton if he's healthy surrounded by Polanco and Arraez. Kirilloff looks like he can be a core guy. The pitching staff is still a mess, but Ober gives us some hope and there are others who deserve a shot. The thing to do now is develop internal guys and those you get in trades, not bring in fringe vets to fill holes. I think it can be done soon enough to be interestingly competitive in 2022 and a real contender in 2023. We just need to get this started now. 

 

LA Vikes fan:  Absolutely agree with your comments on all fronts.  A few things to add centered on your statement---"FO overestimated the core talent in place and just needed to fill some holes in the complimentary group"

1.  For whatever reason Falvey & Levine allowed Trevor May (FA deal with Mets) and Tyler Clippard to leave thinking that others would progress.  Obviously, that has not happened.  I really don't understand the "love affair" Falvey has with Cody Stashak.  Stashak had a decent 2020 campaign but not, imo, the type of season that merited be moved into such a key set up role.   As everyone knows now, Stashak was putrid early this season-----demoted to AAA and now on long term IL.

2.  Tyler Duffey:  Not sure I can place all the blame on Falvey on this one as I was frequently calling last year for Duffey to get more 8th and 9th inning duties instead of Sergio Romo.  Duffey has not taken the "next step" that many expected.  He hasn't been terrible, but sure hasn't been the dependable and at times dominant RP that I expected he would be.

3.  Jorge Alcala:  Another arm that was expected to improve but has stalled with far too many poor outings whether they come mid game or in late inning situations.  Really have to wonder what role, if any he has moving forward.

4-5. Sano and Kepler:  Not much more to add from what you stated, but both of these guys have significantly regressed from what they did in 2019.  My thought is Falvey and others in the FO absolutely refused to put ANY stock in their poor performances in 2020.  It doesn't take a great baseball mind to see that both Sano and Kepler STRUGGLE to make consistent contact especially when making contact by making a productive out can produce a run.  I believe Falvey and others in the front office absolutely believed both would rebound to their 2019 power numbers.

6.  Jake Cave:  The perfect example of the mentality of Falvey....Cave gives us good defense (he does). Cave will improve his run and power production getting regular ABs if Buxton gets injured (big miscalculation there).  Cave will prove he can hit LH pitching (he can't).   

7.  Alex Colome:  At the time of the signing, I was thinking this could work out as I looked at his solid numbers over the last 2 years--especially dominant against Twins.  Now, its quite apparent THERE WAS A MAJOR REASON WHY NO TEAM OFFERED him a FA contract.  Especially true when Colome sat on the FA market, I think into late January/ early February.

and finally....

#8 Randy Dobnak:  Call me a homer, but I think Dobnak's lost season can be absolutely blamed on Baldelli and Falvey.  If memory serves, Dobnak had a great ST, but due to the late FA "reach and grab" of Shoemaker to be SP#5, Dobnak had no defined role to start the season.  Honestly, I think the decision to insert Shoemaker into the rotation and kick Dobnak into an undetermined relief role showed a complete lack of faith in Dobnak.  I would argue it was borderline disrespectful to Dobnak as other than Maeda in 2020, he was our best and most consistent SP.  No way to predict what will play out with him moving forward, but, imo, he's a guy that can be a valuable member of our pitching staff next season.  Lets just give him a DEFINED ROLE and commit to it.  If he fails, so be it.

So because those free agent pitchers struggled you think the Twins should sit back and do nothing?  Come on now.  Also agree with player assessments except Sano.  It amazes me how you can make a totally inept guy like Sano look like a good major league player.  Do you ever watch him play?

16 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

I thought we were talking about pitching.  Your argument seems to be they were ranked high but why do we care how they were ranked when we now know how they have performed?   What did that system produce for pitching?   We can evaluate based on results and that group produced virtually nothing in terms of pitching.  We don't know how this group will rate 5 years from now when we can evaluate based on results.  I would be willing to bet we get a whole lot more pitching out of the current system plus whoever they get for Berrios/Pineda assuming they are dealt.

So you are saying Falvine need 10 years (the 5 they already have, plus another 5 yrs from now) to be judged on how well they are handling the pitching pipeline and staff?  I simply do not agree with that length of time - judgement starts now and thru next yr which gives them 6; plenty of time.

Depending on how the day ends, right now 2021 looks like the Twins management is fully committed to returning to the glory years of the 1970s, when mediocre plays came and went.?

They can change their name to the Minnesota Rookies , 100 losses here we come.