Is Rocco Baldelli a Lame Duck Manager in 2025?

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But you know what? That decision didn't cost the Twins their season. None of Baldelli's decisions did. And while he certainly owns some of the blame for what happened, the players shoulder far more. Collectively, they all went through that hell together, and hopefully they will ultimately come out better for it. 

This reads like hubris for a team which missed the playoffs by a few games. If Baldelli's often perplexing decisions couldn't have possibly cost the Twins the playoffs, then the Twins should trade him to another team who wants him for cost savings because he adds zero value. In fact, why even employ a traditional baseball manager? Just have an entry level data analyst at $50k a year making calls based on a printed spreadsheet.

I don't see the advantage in late season collapses to teach players something when they happen every other year so somebody needs to clue me in on that.
The Twins were in 1st place on Sept 4th in 2022 only to fail to make the playoffs.
The Twins were in WC#2 with a 95% chance of making the playoffs on Sept 4th in 2024 only to fail again.

If it was so valuable to have a last minute collapse to the season, wouldn't 2022 have taught the Twins something?

I can't say if Baldelli is a lame duck manager. If a new owner buys the team, probably. If the Pohlads don't complete a sale, Baldelli is probably back.

2 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

The "baldelli/spreadsheet" insults are pretty tired.

the collapses in 2022 and 2024 are pretty different. In 2022 the team literally ran out of MLB-quality players; we used 13 OFs that season, including an ill-famed cameo in CF by Royce Lewis. The team had a ton of injuries down the stretch and ran out of options in the minors. And they protected against that in the next season by adding veteran OF help, having players with more flexibility,  and keeping some of the best prospects in the minors longer to ensure they didn't run out of depth in 2023.

2024 they actually weren't that bad off in terms of health: sure, there were guys battling some issues and we'd lost some important players, but the reality was the team just fell apart with multiple players falling into dreadful slumps with no time to correct. in 2022 we had 24 position players get in 12 or more games. In 2024, that number was just 17.

Different situations entirely.

Baldelli runs his team based on analytics, and I'm not sure why you're so obstinate about trying to fight that concept or is it just that "spreadsheet" is offensive now? If spreadsheet is now an offensive term, I can always add a trigger warning to my posts or perhaps I can use a less offensive term like "grid" or "table" "array" or "matrix" if you like?

By the way, when is late season criticism of collapses allowed? Does Baldelli have to oversee 20 or 30 years of late season collapses until there are enough collapses which mirror each other before criticism can be levied?

8 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

The focus of this article is on Rocco and I will say that unless we have a very fun year as Twins fans, and the possibility is there with the core talent we have and the expected bounce back by certain key players like Lewis and Lopez to name just 2, there is also the real chance we finish 3rd or 4th and out of the playoffs again.  

In that scenario, Rocco is toast.  New ownership will probably want a fresh start with "their guy."

But I don't think anybody can make the assumption that Derek Falvey is secure in any way.  Again, if the Twins battle for the division crown and make the playoffs, both Rocco and Falvey probably stick around, but on a short leash.  If we finish 3rd or 4th and out of the playoffs once again, I expect Falvey to be packing his bags as well.

Many of us don't think Rocco is a good "in game" manager.  I've never liked the way he handles his bullpen and the 2nd inning pinch hitting drives me crazy, especially after the opposing manager changes pitchers and renders the platoon PH move null the next inning.

But with all the "holes" the Twins need to fill this off season and the lack of action as we hit the New Year, a failure to make the playoffs will fall squarely on Falvey's shoulders.  New ownership could rightfully determine that Falvey should have pushed the Pohlad's harder to allow him to fortify the weak areas.  I'm not really sure Falvey himself understands that HIS JOB is more at risk than Rocco's.  

Oh, I think Falvey and Rocco understand their jobs are at risk if there is new ownership.  Their fools if they don't.  They don't at least win the division or make the play-offs and win a series.  Their toast, I think.  It's my biggest hope for them being competitive this year.  Being a season ticket holder, I want to see winning baseball for the coming season.  Rocco needs to run tough spring training camp.  Let the players know last years' collapse was unacceptable.  Work hard on being sound in all facets of the game.  Reducing mental mistakes and lack of hustle plays.  Like the Wild coach did this season.  The Wild had significant budget constraints and added very little in off-season.  But so far, a third of into season they are doing very well with basically the same roster.

12 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

Because the "Rocco only does what his spreadsheet tells him" isn't "Baldelli uses analytics to inform his decisions", it's a pejorative that says he's a useless robot. It's entirely designed as an insult. I think you know that the twins don't have an elaborate decision tree set up on the iPad that tells Rocco what decision to make after every single AB throughout the game, but for the people that either don't like the use of analytics in baseball decision-making or just dislike Rocco this has become the cheap shot attack, repeated over and over again without any nuance or real accuracy, designed solely to denigrate the manager (and the front office) mostly because you don't like the way modern baseball is played. There's real areas to criticize Rocco's game management but the "he takes orders from a spreadsheet" one is consistently and spectacularly dumb IMHO.

Criticism of late season collapses are absolutely allowed, but this is another one of those areas where people overrate the impact of managers in baseball. Maybe another manager would have been able to pull Royce Lewis out of his horrific slump or get Willi Castro going again, etc but I'm skeptical about any "new manager bounce" in baseball. Rocco and the coaches get some blame for not being able to find a lever to pull to get anyone out of their slumps, but the players should get most of the stick because too many of them just stunk and came up empty when they needed to.

In 6 seasons, Rocco has 3 division titles, a .525 win %, and 3 playoff wins (including one short series). That's pretty good, but not out of line with the talent level of the team IMHO. Could/should any of those teams have done more? I'd say yes on the 2019 squad, maybe on 2021 group (who had more talent than a last place finish, but obviously the sell-off mattered). is it on Rocco that the 2019 team only scored 7 runs in 3 games in the playoffs? The record overall has been good.

My perception of Rocco is he comes across has soft in dealing with his players.  His comments after the season ended badly.  Sounded like he is re-thinking his approach.  I am in favor of him doing so.  He needs to start with off-season communication with players.  Be ready to go when spring training starts.  We are going to get to work and don't plan on having a lot of time on the golf course.  Better conditioning will reduce injuries and missed time playing in season too.

4 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

Because the "Rocco only does what his spreadsheet tells him" isn't "Baldelli uses analytics to inform his decisions", it's a pejorative that says he's a useless robot. It's entirely designed as an insult. I think you know that the twins don't have an elaborate decision tree set up on the iPad that tells Rocco what decision to make after every single AB throughout the game, but for the people that either don't like the use of analytics in baseball decision-making or just dislike Rocco this has become the cheap shot attack, repeated over and over again without any nuance or real accuracy, designed solely to denigrate the manager (and the front office) mostly because you don't like the way modern baseball is played. There's real areas to criticize Rocco's game management but the "he takes orders from a spreadsheet" one is consistently and spectacularly dumb IMHO.

Criticism of late season collapses are absolutely allowed, but this is another one of those areas where people overrate the impact of managers in baseball. Maybe another manager would have been able to pull Royce Lewis out of his horrific slump or get Willi Castro going again, etc but I'm skeptical about any "new manager bounce" in baseball. Rocco and the coaches get some blame for not being able to find a lever to pull to get anyone out of their slumps, but the players should get most of the stick because too many of them just stunk and came up empty when they needed to.

In 6 seasons, Rocco has 3 division titles, a .525 win %, and 3 playoff wins (including one short series). That's pretty good, but not out of line with the talent level of the team IMHO. Could/should any of those teams have done more? I'd say yes on the 2019 squad, maybe on 2021 group (who had more talent than a last place finish, but obviously the sell-off mattered). is it on Rocco that the 2019 team only scored 7 runs in 3 games in the playoffs? The record overall has been good.

Does anybody believe Rocco doesn't make decisions almost exclusively based on analytics and pre-determined strategy? Baldelli does not employ analytics the same way other teams do; Baldelli appears to employ analytics (spreadsheets/databases) to the extreme end of MLB organizations blurring the line between Baldelli being a data analyst and an MLB manager. Implying Baldelli's decision making process is robotic, and that it lacks a feel for the game feels pretty fair to me, and it has nothing to do with the "the way modern baseball is played" it has to do with the way Baldelli's Twins teams have played baseball.

Baldelli's record in 2019-2024 isn't great. The 2020 season is kind of a lame duck, and Baldelli's teams have truly earned a division title only once in 5 full season years, in 2019 when the team won 101 games. They've never won more than 87 games in a full season otherwise (under Falvey/Molitor, either), and no team other than the Twins, in the pitiful AL Central, has won a division title with fewer than 88 wins during Baldelli's (or Falvey's) tenure. In 6 seasons, Baldelli's teams have won 3 playoff games and been swept out in their 2 playoff appearances. Baldelli's teams have missed the playoffs for 3 of the past 4 years where only 3 of 5 teams were competitive. Since Falvey's start in 2017, the division win in 2023 represents the only time a division has been won with fewer than 88 wins in a full season. In fact, there's less than a 1 in 10 shot a division winner has less than 90 wins (7.7%) and less than 90 wins hasn't even been a 50/50 shot at the Wildcard. If you want to excuse Baldelli for missing the playoffs 3 of 4 seasons, armed with a huge payroll advantage, in a division where 3 of 5 teams were undergoing full rebuilds, where the only other competitive team ran a payroll 50% lower than Baldelli's teams, where his team won fewer games than any other division winner in a full season in modern history, and the results included 2 late season collapses in 3 years, feel free. Set that bar right on the ground. Make all the excuses you like. Just know for every argument you make, I (and many others) see much stronger counterarguments as to why Baldelli isn't a good manager.

9 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

Because the "Rocco only does what his spreadsheet tells him" isn't "Baldelli uses analytics to inform his decisions", it's a pejorative that says he's a useless robot. It's entirely designed as an insult. I think you know that the twins don't have an elaborate decision tree set up on the iPad that tells Rocco what decision to make after every single AB throughout the game, but for the people that either don't like the use of analytics in baseball decision-making or just dislike Rocco this has become the cheap shot attack, repeated over and over again without any nuance or real accuracy, designed solely to denigrate the manager (and the front office) mostly because you don't like the way modern baseball is played. There's real areas to criticize Rocco's game management but the "he takes orders from a spreadsheet" one is consistently and spectacularly dumb IMHO.

Criticism of late season collapses are absolutely allowed, but this is another one of those areas where people overrate the impact of managers in baseball. Maybe another manager would have been able to pull Royce Lewis out of his horrific slump or get Willi Castro going again, etc but I'm skeptical about any "new manager bounce" in baseball. Rocco and the coaches get some blame for not being able to find a lever to pull to get anyone out of their slumps, but the players should get most of the stick because too many of them just stunk and came up empty when they needed to.

In 6 seasons, Rocco has 3 division titles, a .525 win %, and 3 playoff wins (including one short series). That's pretty good, but not out of line with the talent level of the team IMHO. Could/should any of those teams have done more? I'd say yes on the 2019 squad, maybe on 2021 group (who had more talent than a last place finish, but obviously the sell-off mattered). is it on Rocco that the 2019 team only scored 7 runs in 3 games in the playoffs? The record overall has been good.

THIS.  EXACTLY.  

It’s amazing how a word or two can become a weapon that just gets tossed in no matter what the argument.  The argument as I understand it is that Rocco Baldelli isn’t a good manager because he uses “analytics” too much and/or manages “with a spreadsheet”, and that it would be better if he managed “by feel” and “with his gut”.  YIKES!  To me, managing with his gut would seem to suggest a guy sitting in his lazy boy with a beer just throwing stuff out there.  What information exactly does anyone think goes into a managerial decision from the gut?  I would think that it would involve information based on the experience of the manager and the perceived tendencies of the player(s) involved.  That’s it.  Spreadsheet or no, analytics is a part of everything we do.  The implication that he manages “with a spreadsheet” to me implies that he is considering so much data, mere pencil and paper nor human mind can keep track of it all.  That seems OK.  “From the gut” implies a careless attitude about decision making and I don’t think any of us want that.

For the record, I am Baldelli indifferent.  I don’t think that he (or any manager) makes us great or makes us terrible.  The right players make any manager look really good.  In answer to the original question, yes, with the team for sale he’s probably a lame duck unless he has a spectacular season.  I see that as little cause for distress nor celebration.