Is Manuel Margot, Like, Allergic to Pinch-Hitting?

"If you torture data long enough, it will confess to anything."  

I love this, and plan to use it myself going forward.  Outstanding.

Probably not...but his manager is certainly allergic to stop trying to use him in the PH role. 

Very nicely written article.   

50 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

For a team that is so stat driven the decision to ph Margot is just beyond absurdity.  Sure he will eventually get a hit, but too little too late. 

Wondering the same thing. 0-25. Not sure how the analytics point to Margot as being a viable option at PH. Perhaps the analytics did at some point, like in March or April. But, now? Rocco either needs a new computer or someone needs to explain to him what 0-25 means.

Margot makes me long for the days of Randy Bush and Gene Larkin. Those two always seemed to come through in PH opportunities.

Nice article.  Baldelli is one of the most confusing and stubborn managers ever.  He continues sending Margo up there in pinch hitting and watch him fail in that role.  Sheer stubbornness.  Just like not letting some lefties bat against lefty pitchers.  How can you expect your young players to become solid major league players if they aren't allowed to bat against lefties?  It makes no sense.  This is what separates Baldelli from the great managers.  He's locked in to his system and is inflexible to actually managing a game.  If the Twins had an actual manager I think they would be well in first place.

 "If you torture data long enough, it will confess to anything. " 

So true & very well put. I'm not sure if Baldelli is to blame, he just does what the boss commands. He's great at keep beating a dead dog & make the stats say whatever he wants, to justify his decisions.

The role of bench bat and pinch hitter is a rare item. There are a few players who like coming off the bench to hit. Others seem to have a need to be a part of the game before they bat. It might be impossible to explain but Margot looks futile when he pinch hits and the results are glaring.

The statistical response would be to say that 25 AB are a small sample size.  Which is true.  But I'm very sure that if I ran the calculations 0-25 vs whatever his non-pinch hitting AB figures are (I'm too lazy to look them up) would in fact be a statistically significant difference. Which means that the sample size is large enough to draw conclusions from. That's particularly true here, given that there is an actual reason that could explain the difference - as noted above some players find it hard to come in cold.

Margot is terrible, I cringe Everytime I see him at the plate AND in the outfield. I've got to believe someone like Martin or Keirsey could outhit and outplay him in the field. I just read the article on Minnesotatwins.com saying that the plan is for Rocco to continue throwing Margot out there as a PH and hope he starts hitting. How is that a successful plan, especially when we're trying to make the playoffs!?!

People are missing a few things:

Going 0-anything at this level requires a certain amount of bad luck.  Line drives hit right at people, etc.

Not everyone is cut out to be a good PH.  The mental makeup to sit for 2 hours then come in and be a productive hitter can be difficult.  Margot has historically not been a great PH, I am sure the luck factor is part of this year's equation too.

Margot is a useful piece to this team.  Changing roles and expectations can mess with a players confidence.  I  guarantee you that nobody feels worse about his PH this year than Margot.
 

So many complaints that 0-for-25 means Baldelli needs to stop using Margot as a pinch-hitter. As Greggory pointed out, Margot has a career 122 OPS+ against LHP. I guarantee the Twins coaching staff and front office care more about that sample size (983 PA) than Margot's hitless streak when pinch-hitting this season or his career numbers as a pinch-hitter, both of which are significantly smaller samples. I'd like to see his xBA and xwOBA in those pinch hits, not because I'd expect them to be great, but at least we'd have more evidence that it's really unlucky to pull off what Margot's done this year. 

While I've got your attention, I want to also point out that this frequent pinch-hitting is often how playoff games are managed. Why reserve certain strategies for the playoffs instead of using them in the regular season to get everyone acclimated? Even though Margot is struggling, he's going to be far more comfortable pinch-hitting in the playoffs than hitters on other teams because he's already done it plenty in the regular season. 

So Manuel needs to take a Benadryl before he pinch-hits. Non-drowsy version, of course.

I always coach players who are in a big slump to try to bunt for a hit. I don't know if Margot has tried this (though he probably has failed if he did). At least we are winning more games than losing so are we still winning the games in which he appears? Is he the main cause when we lose? If he isn't getting any hits, is he at least moving runners or hitting the ball well? I don't see many of the games but only counted 10 of the games that he pinch hit in as losses and who knows if they lost because of him. That last stat would need to be checked.

Also, what counts is what you do today and going forward, not what you did yesterday. So let's hope the law of averages catches up and he goes 10 for the next 20 pinch hit appearances. With all the injuries, Rocco has no choice but to keep using him.

50 minutes ago, Andrew Bryz-Gornia said:

So many complaints that 0-for-25 means Baldelli needs to stop using Margot as a pinch-hitter. As Greggory pointed out, Margot has a career 122 OPS+ against LHP. I guarantee the Twins coaching staff and front office care more about that sample size (983 PA) than Margot's hitless streak when pinch-hitting this season or his career numbers as a pinch-hitter, both of which are significantly smaller samples. I'd like to see his xBA and xwOBA in those pinch hits, not because I'd expect them to be great, but at least we'd have more evidence that it's really unlucky to pull off what Margot's done this year. 

While I've got your attention, I want to also point out that this frequent pinch-hitting is often how playoff games are managed. Why reserve certain strategies for the playoffs instead of using them in the regular season to get everyone acclimated? Even though Margot is struggling, he's going to be far more comfortable pinch-hitting in the playoffs than hitters on other teams because he's already done it plenty in the regular season. 

Teams that don't have good starting players employ this strategy in the playoffs.  The goal should be to have 8 solid position players to play every day and can hit in every situation.  There are times when pinch hitting or a defensive substitution makes sense.  But setting your roster to employ someone for only one task is not a winning formula.  Looking at Texas last year, they pinch hit once in five games in the World Series.  I believe they won the World Series.  I would rather follow the formula of the winning team, not everyone else.

Unless your names Ohtani most pinch hitters aren't as good because it's the first time seeing the pitcher (sometimes very first time). So it's not uncommon to have lower than average OPS and averages.