How Long of a Leash Will the Twins Give to Pending Free Agents?

Had to read the article twice to try to find something I disagree with.  Still can't.  Would agree with all and probably emphasize on Pagan.  Seems he has good stuff, but results are the key.  Put it together or take your pink slip to Detroit.

The Twins have to figure out WHO they might like to extend (Sonny Gray?). 

Otherwise, you do hope that ALL the pending free ageYou also have to look at Kepler and Polanco as being in the mix of cutting early ties.nts prove productive so, if players perform well at AAA, they become tradable for more than a bucket of balls - long-term prospect - I would put Solano and Madea into the trade for prospect camp.

The Twins will have to make a hard decision when Polanco returns and especially if and when Kirilloff proves a need to come back to the majors. (I imagine Castro will go to the minors for Polanco, but Alex opens a can of worms).

Mahle is still young and if halfway decent, could the Twins flip him to get back some of the minor league prospect product they traded top the Reds, which was significant at the time.

You also have to put Kepler and Polanco into the picture. The Twins may have an immediate replacement in Julien at second base. At some point the Twins have to make a decision on where to play Lewis, what is the status of Wallner as a right-fielder, and if Martin is still a part of a longterm solution.

I agree with most, but Mahle will get plenty of leash due to his history of sustained success.  Sure, if his velo is down and doing terrible and looks cooked, then they will do what need to, but he will get plenty of run in my opinion. 

Taylor - No leash.  Buxton DHing in the first three games tells you Taylor's role here.

Solano - Medium.   Until injuries heal, there really is no proven body to fill his role

Gray - No leash.  Kind of dumb to say he has a leash.  

Mahle - Long, long leash.  I believe the Twins think he is a long term piece.  He will be given every opportunity to be successful.

Gallo - I think Gallo's leash will be shorter than I would like.  He may be the most replaceable on this list.  If he can't show some level of improvement, he could be gone fairly soon.

Maeda - As a starter, medium leash.  As a Twin, they will give him a chance to be a BP guy.  Too much respect here.

Pagan - Medium.  Forget his first few appearances, he showed flashes of success last year.  Low expectations here, they will only move him into high leverage if needed

Pagan's leash should be the only short one. Maeda should get better as he pitches more. I would actually give him a long leash. If he has to, he goes to the pen. Mahle should have a long leash and is the most likely for the Twins to get an extension done with.

If I were to rank them from shortest leash to longest leash, here would be my ranking:

1. Pagan: it shouldn't take much for the Twins to want to move on, especially if they can move Maeda to the bullpen.

2. Maeda (as a starter): if he struggles and/or Varland, Ober, or SWR are doing well, moving Maeda to the bullpen to make room for one of the young guys makes sense. 

3. Solano: as soon as Polanco and Kiriloff are healthy, someone has to go. That someone is probably Solano.

4. Gallo: Even though he may seem like he is expendable, there are a lot of ways Gallo sticks around. His ability to play many positions makes him somewhat valuable especially if he can provide some offense. 

5. Mahle: unless he reaggravates his injury and/or multiple of the Ober, Varland, SWR group are doing really well, he is going nowhere.

6. Taylor (aka the Byron Buxton insurance plan): unless he turns out to be a complete black hole on offense, he is going to get playing time. When you consider who the Twins have had to play in the previous couple seasons when Buxton was out, Taylor is a clear upgrade.

7. Gray: totally safe and going nowhere. 

Pagan's leash should be whatever distance is measured between Target Field and St. Paul.

Pagan, I am ready to let him go now and that is a year to late.

In the order they are likely to be here at the end of the season.

Pagan will get 12-15 appearances to look the part.  Then, he will be replaced as soon as be replaced as soon as one of Henriquez, Winder or Megill pitch well enough to prompt ahis replacement.

Taylor at first glance seems likely to stick around.  However, the optimistic view or best case is Buxton is playing 4-5 days a week in CF by mid-May.  Let’s hope Lewis and/or Martin replace Taylor by July 1.  They are more complete players and more versatile defensively so we will get more out of the roster spot. 

Solano is a great bench player but the ideal scenario is a healthy Polanco and Julien playing so well they can’t keep in AAA and Solano is moved to make room.   

Maeda depends on how well he bounces back.  The Twins have Ober/Varland, and SWR waiting for a spot.  A good offer at the deadline might be more intriguing than putting Maeda in the pen especially if a couple of Alcala/Henriguez/Winder/Megill are looking good.

Gallo:  2021 Gallo is not going anywhere unless they get an offer they can’t refuse at the deadline.  If he looks like 2022 Galo he is traded or released by the deadline.  If he is midway between those two years his fate will be a product of the health and performance of Kirilloff/Larnach/Gordon/Lewis/Julien.

Mahle:  Lots of variables with Mahle starting with health.  A healthy Mahle is an extension candidate.  An underperforming Mahle could be moved in favor of Varland or SWR if they are having a great year.  The twins need to find 3 replacements in next year’s rotation.  

Gray is a very similar situation to Mahle.   
 

21 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

So I agree with most - certainly with the Pagan analysis!

Solano is cheap, which makes cutting ties a bit easier but his experience will keep prospects at bay, I agree. Not sure though, if Kiriloff & Polanco come back by May 1 ………& if Larnach is still hitting well (not OK but well) they gotta send him down or DFA Solano……unless someone else is hurt.

Maeda - his leash may be short “as a starter” but I don’t see him going anywhere other than the Pen.

Mahle - if medium v. long leash, where does he go? I guess he could go to long relief & Ober could take his spot. Can’t imagine him getting DFA’d.

Taylor is stable as long as he’s healthy. Need the depth.

Forget Kiriloff. Honestly, his career is over and it's a pipe dream that he ever comes back and plays many games. The wrist is gone. 

No leash for Pagon. He needs to be on a choke chain. Solano will be traded when when Lewis is ready, if not sooner. All the starters are safe (may be on the disabled list though). Farmer may be traded if they want bring up a prospect or save some money. One of Taylor and Gallo is safe depending on their hitting. The other one goes.

On 4/2/2023 at 1:11 PM, Rosterman said:

The Twins have to figure out WHO they might like to extend (Sonny Gray?). 

Otherwise, you do hope that ALL the pending free ageYou also have to look at Kepler and Polanco as being in the mix of cutting early ties.nts prove productive so, if players perform well at AAA, they become tradable for more than a bucket of balls - long-term prospect - I would put Solano and Madea into the trade for prospect camp.

The Twins will have to make a hard decision when Polanco returns and especially if and when Kirilloff proves a need to come back to the majors. (I imagine Castro will go to the minors for Polanco, but Alex opens a can of worms).

Mahle is still young and if halfway decent, could the Twins flip him to get back some of the minor league prospect product they traded top the Reds, which was significant at the time.

You also have to put Kepler and Polanco into the picture. The Twins may have an immediate replacement in Julien at second base. At some point the Twins have to make a decision on where to play Lewis, what is the status of Wallner as a right-fielder, and if Martin is still a part of a longterm solution.

I think calling out Kepler and Polanco is fair.  I see Kepler getting outrighted as our youngsters become ready.  Polanco could be a trade candidate.  I hope he hasn't reached the stage of his career when he is breaking down...although that seems like a possibility.

Why is Pagan even on the roster. Completely failed in every clutch situation last year down the stretch. This year two hits in his inning plus even his outs were hit hard. He is not fooling anyone with his pitches and has lost enough on his fastball that it is like batting practice. Move on from him and give a kid that slot.