Has Willi Castro Forced Himself into the Twins' Long-Term Plans?

Greglw3 · July 20, 2023

7 hours ago, Alex Schieferdecker said:

He's got a 90 OPS+, c'mon folks.

It's great when you can pick out one number to take down a player. Are you aware that OPS+ unfairly heavily favors power hitters like Gallo with a .183 average.

Castro is hitting 60 points above that, has 21 steals and can bunt and bring home crucial runs that win games. You can have Gallo’s 20 extra OPS+ points but Willi Castro is more athletic that Gallo, gets many more hits and steals infinitely more bases. He can bunt, squeeze which Gallo can’t. Plus Castro is super versatile and plays very good defense. Speed never slumps. I’ll take Willi Castro every day of the week, OPS+ be damned.

karcherd · July 20, 2023

7 hours ago, Hunter McCall said:

Has also provided elite defense and is their only threat on the bases. As I stated above.

Elite defense, have you been watching his routes to the ball in CF. I know he hasn't played there much, but calling him elite defensively is a bit of hyberbole.

DocBauer · July 20, 2023

1] I love and appreciate good defense, and I WANT my team to be the best defensively they can be. And I recognize WAR for a player is partially based on defense, which is very difficult to quantify accurately. So I do take any WAR from Castro with a grain of salt as a utility player being almost forced to play daily skews the concept of WAR, IMO.

2] I liked Castro when he was signed, and stated so. I saw a talented kid who was promoted too early, not developed, was still only 26yo, and offered potential. (I wasn't the only one). He's actually exceeded my expectations, despite not exactly setting the world on complete fire in regard to AVG/OB/SLG/OPS.

3] I DON'T agree, as Chpettit19 pointed out, that you HAVE to have some super-utility player to make your roster complete. And I'm not going to lay out roster combinations again that he stated very well as possible. But I also recognize it's not always easy to actually HAVE that perfect 1-13 that you'd like to have, due to injuries alone.

4] I disagree that Castro has FORCED anything. I mean, he still has to keep playing well. And I object to any mention of long term. Now, if long term is the next couple of seasons, and he keeps doing what he's doing, then YES, he's at least earned the right to be on the 40 man and the #1 candidate to be said super-utility player, and I do think he offers more than Gordon. Gordon might have more pop, and as much or more speed, but that speed hasn't translated in to SB, and Castro's defense and overall positional versatility is much better.

5] Helman has been robbed of his 2023 season so far due to a hamstring, then a concussion, and now a shoulder injury. And while a RH bat, he offers, potentially, an even better bat than Castro with similar speed and as much, if not more, positional flexibility. Based on 2022 and his ",jump start" at AAA now, Prato is very similar to Castro in positional flexibility, POTENTIALLY a better bat. The cupboard isn't bare for challengers and options at the super-utility spot.

6] I LOVE what Castro has brought to the team. I love his defense and his speed as a weapon. He's an OK hitter with potential still, which I also like and embrace. But the Twins offense SHOULD be better, and not have to rely on him so much as a daily starter.

Long story short, he's EARNED his spot for the rest of the year. He's earned a 40 man spot. I'd take him over Gordon. And he's earned the right to be at the top of the pecking order as the 13th man, super-utility option going in to 2024. No debate there at all. Love the guy.

But I can't dismiss the idea that he's got to keep doing what he's doing...maybe continue to improve...because there ARE other options in 2024 to replace him, or a roster deep enough, potentially, that he becomes the 14th man.

Edited July 20, 2023 by DocBauer
Wrong name, auto correct error

DocBauer · July 20, 2023

****Quick apology to anyone who read my last post, pressed for time and my auto-correct messed up and I didn't catch it. CASTRO...not Cruz. It should be corrected now.****

mikelink45 · July 20, 2023

Neither one is critical, but Castro has really shown this year because all the batters that began the year have been so poor. Long term either one works and we have a few in the minors that can step up too. Job security is tough for a utility player.

tony&rodney · July 20, 2023

A switch hitter who can steal bases and plays everywhere has value. How much is debatable. Castro is not an elite defender, but certainly passable. He hits ok, but swings and misses a bit too much. He does seem to bear down with guys on base. A utility role seems like a viable position for Castro even though he has been in the starting lineup quite often in the past month.

Mostly, these last positions on a roster are a matter of opportunity and timing. Pratto, Helman, Gordon, Martin, and Castro are all guys just looking for an opportunity. Castro has done decently with his shot.

weitz41 · July 20, 2023

I'm not ready to part ways with Gordon because of 91 total AB's this season. A bad month to month and a half. Relax... It will take some unpopular decisions to make it work but I don't see him going anywhere once healthy. I'd rather have both Castro and Gordon. Plus, the trade deadline is coming up which might change who are our bench players.

Bench players

2023 a catcher, Farmer, Castro and Solano

2024 a catcher, Farmer, Castro and Gordon. That seems pretty solid to me.

dxpavelka · July 20, 2023

If so, it will be because a much more ballyhooed prospect missed.

specialiststeve · July 20, 2023

He had better!!

His value comes in many different ways with the ability to play many spots and play them WELL! Most utility guys "get by" ... he excels.

Biggest thing I see when I watch is the energy and joy he brings to the team... way undervalued as the marathon of the season needs players like this to energize others. Also why we need a good mix of vets AND younger players.

Nine of twelve · July 20, 2023

How long is long term? And how important is short term?

Castro has been better than Gordon so far this year and to me it makes little sense short term to keep Gordon on the major league roster, especially if it means optioning Castro. We simply can't keep everyone. Regarding long term, next year things could be completely different and in 2025 things almost certainly will be completely different. In baseball it's nearly impossible to predict how much a player will improve or worsen, and that's especially the case with minor league players. But it's reasonable to expect that there will be someone younger (and less costly) than Castro ready and able to supplant him on the major league team by 2025. So commit to Castro long term? Probably not. But commit to Castro short term? Absolutely.

Hunter McCall · July 20, 2023

16 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

It's not that hard to get 3 everyday outfielders. Or 4 everyday infielders. You don't need to be Atlanta to have an entire unit that doesn't need to be switched around and pinch hit for constantly. Lewis, Correa, Polanco (or Julien), Kirilloff. Look at that I just took away any need to be bouncing Castro to the infield in any given game because you shouldn't be taking any of those 4 (or 5) guys out of any game, and they should be playing everyday. You have both Farmer and Solano who cover the IF without needing Castro at all.

I like Castro. I'm not suggesting he isn't useful. I'm just saying that if you build, and/or manage, your team differently it isn't necessary to bounce a guy all over the field on a regular basis. Their obsession with substitutions is what forces them to do this. All you need is either an infield or outfield that you just set and forget. That's 3 or 4 players. Shouldn't be hard to do.

In theory, yes you don’t need a utility man, until you do. Yes, when healthy the Twins would like not to start Castro as often. You mentioned Lewis, Correa, Polanco, and AK. That would be the starting infield right now if Lewis and Polanco weren’t on the IL. That’s where Castro’s value comes from.

Hunter McCall · July 20, 2023

13 hours ago, karcherd said:

Elite defense, have you been watching his routes to the ball in CF. I know he hasn't played there much, but calling him elite defensively is a bit of hyberbole.

Again, 19th in the league in DRS, in the 70th percentile in OAA and 81st percentile in arm strength according to baseball savant. All while playing 5-6 positions. The numbers say he’s been a very very good defender.

Hunter McCall · July 20, 2023

14 hours ago, old nurse said:

Leader in war changes day to day. Today he is in 3 place. End of the season he could be lower, he could be higher. At this point he is also having a career year. Is this the real Willi? Will he regress to his mean or is this the real Willi unlocked from the terrible team in a terrible city?

He’s not the team leader, as the starting pitchers have held that spot all year, but he’s led position players for a majority of the season.

Hunter McCall · July 20, 2023

24 minutes ago, Nine of twelve said:

How long is long term? And how important is short term?

Castro has been better than Gordon so far this year and to me it makes little sense short term to keep Gordon on the major league roster, especially if it means optioning Castro. We simply can't keep everyone. Regarding long term, next year things could be completely different and in 2025 things almost certainly will be completely different. In baseball it's nearly impossible to predict how much a player will improve or worsen, and that's especially the case with minor league players. But it's reasonable to expect that there will be someone younger (and less costly) than Castro ready and able to supplant him on the major league team by 2025. So commit to Castro long term? Probably not. But commit to Castro short term? Absolutely.

Long term in this case in my opinion is through his contract

chpettit19 · July 20, 2023

28 minutes ago, Hunter McCall said:

In theory, yes you don’t need a utility man, until you do. Yes, when healthy the Twins would like not to start Castro as often. You mentioned Lewis, Correa, Polanco, and AK. That would be the starting infield right now if Lewis and Polanco weren’t on the IL. That’s where Castro’s value comes from.

Yes, but if you build actual depth, and don't need to trade Arraez, Steer, and CES for pitching you have no need for Castro's role. Lee seems to have found his footing in AA and should be in AAA soon, and the majors next year. So add a 6th guy to the 5 I mentioned.

I've said Castro is useful. I like him. He's the perfect 13th guy for the way they want to run this team. But you're suggesting he's a "long-term" answer to things. Even if you just mean 2 years I don't agree that he's that valuable as Polanco and Lewis are both expected back soonish. They're already struggling to figure out what to do with Polanco and Julien. What will they do when they add Lewis to that mix? Castro is useful, but not someone you carve out a spot for. As others have mentioned, he's valuable in large part because he has an option left. If Miranda is his 2022 self after he gets his shoulder right they have even more IF traffic. If they weren't so obsessed with subbing constantly Farmer would be enough to cover their IF needs even with Lewis and Polanco both out. Castro's value largely comes from the way the Twins want to do things, not the way they have to do things. It's really straight forward to not need a guy who plays all over. Still nice, but absolutely not needed.

Doctor Gast · July 20, 2023

20 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

It's what happens when the super utility player has to play everyday. The beauty of the player type is that they can be inserted in all kinds of advantageous spots and be successful. That's also a pretty damn good OPS+ for a player in that position.

The super utility role on this roster is certainly here to stay. Gordon isn't a super utility player anymore, he's just another LH outfielder that can play 2B in an emergency. Having Castro to compare with shows how limited Gordon really is. Gordon getting injured was one of the best things that could have happened roster wise for the Twins. I feel for him but he's going to have decent career as a full time ML player with the As or Royals. He's no longer a fit here.

I think Castro is locked into this roster for the year. As guys get healthy he gets more valuable. I would do everything I could not to use his option so it was still available next year.

'I would do everything I could not to use his option so it was still available next year."

Very good point Jocko, I agree totally with you. I always thought when Gordon comes back, just option Castro, but maybe now that's not the best option. IMO I'd unload Gallo. With hope that when Gordon comes back &he'd increase his stock so he could be traded this off season. Although Castro doesn't have the pop that Gordon has but the other aspects Castro is better.

I really liked Castro this preseason so I was very happy & surprised that he stayed up w/ the team after they broke camp. I was surprised because the Twins normally prioritize big bats & ignore the other talents & preseason production. I really like Castro's ability to stay healthy, excellent defensive flexibility and his running the base prowess that is very lacking on this team (Castro would steal much more bases if this team were more running minded). He has out performed my expectations.

IMO many great misuse the term "super utility player" (my definition is one who can play SS & CF well) Castro fits that definition. He is by far our best utility player & should stay there until some else can prove they are better.

David Maro · July 20, 2023

Every team needs a spark plug and Castro seems to be that. With Julien helping the lineup with offense and Castro stealing bases it will help to win the division. Let's worry about next year next year. Every year players come and go and if Castro out plays Gordon and others so be it. The goal is go to the playoffs every year this year included. No one had the Phillies in the WS last year. We have the pitching this year and may not next year. You want to move someone when Gordon or Lewis return how about Gallo. He has become a automatic out in the lineup. Everyone has said that about Buxton,so he took a seat.

RpR · July 20, 2023

Paraphrasing Gump: Julien and Gordon are like a box of chocolates when fielding, you never know what you are going to get.

Castro is a constant.

stringer bell · July 20, 2023

I’ve been a Castro backer since he was signed. He deserves a roster spot for the remainder of the season and a spot on the 40-man beyond the season. He is well-suited to a utility role.

By the time Gordon is ready to play this year, it will probably be September. I really don’t see much of a role for him this year and he’ll probably have to win a spot next season. There is no comparison in terms of speed, base running and defense between Nick and Willi. Castro is superior in all of those aspects. Willi also switch hits and plays acceptable defense at more positions.

Unless Nick Gordon can hit enough to become a platoon left fielder, there is no role for him on the Twins while they have Willi Castro.

karcherd · July 20, 2023

4 hours ago, Hunter McCall said:

Again, 19th in the league in DRS, in the 70th percentile in OAA and 81st percentile in arm strength according to baseball savant. All while playing 5-6 positions. The numbers say he’s been a very very good defender.

Good does not mean elite.

stringer bell · July 21, 2023

Important for utility guys to be able to fill in adequately at the key positions--center field and shortstop. Rocco prefers Farmer over Castro at short and has been somewhat reluctant to go with Willi in center field. According to BBRef, after more than an extremely SSS, Castro is a neutral in center. While that doesn't sound great, being average where the best outfielders in the world are deployed is pretty good.

When both players were on the active roster, Rocco used Castro at short. Again, that is telling to me in any competition for a utility spot on the Twins going forward.

I would agree with those of you that are saying Willi is good, not elite, in the field. His best position appears to be left field, although he's played precious little second for the Twins, because they had other less-versatile options there.

old nurse · July 21, 2023

23 hours ago, Hunter McCall said:

He’s not the team leader, as the starting pitchers have held that spot all year, but he’s led position players for a majority of the season.

He may have led the position player for most of the season. He may finish in the top 5 of position players at the end of the season. It does not change probable regression. It does not change that at a less than 2 war season he would be viewed as a useful player but not an essential. This is his ceiling.

wabene · July 21, 2023

On 7/19/2023 at 7:55 PM, Greglw3 said:

It's great when you can pick out one number to take down a player. Are you aware that OPS+ unfairly heavily favors power hitters like Gallo with a .183 average.

Castro is hitting 60 points above that, has 21 steals and can bunt and bring home crucial runs that win games. You can have Gallo’s 20 extra OPS+ points but Willi Castro is more athletic that Gallo, gets many more hits and steals infinitely more bases. He can bunt, squeeze which Gallo can’t. Plus Castro is super versatile and plays very good defense. Speed never slumps. I’ll take Willi Castro every day of the week, OPS+ be damned.

Forget OPS for a second and consider OBP. Willi is at .319. Wait a second I just checked and that is exactly league average. I was expecting him to be below average because of his rep as a free swinger. His batting average is only a few points below average as well. I was going to say he couldn't use his speed if he isn't on base, but apparently he is at an average rate. Actually not bad for a utility guy. But therein lies the crux, not bad. I like Willi and have enjoyed watching him on the bases and in the field at times, but we should always be looking to do better than not bad.

Hunter McCall · July 21, 2023

19 hours ago, karcherd said:

Good does not mean elite.

Name one utility player that has better defensive metrics.

IndianaTwin · July 21, 2023

On 7/19/2023 at 9:07 PM, DocBauer said:

...clip...

Long story short, he's EARNED his spot for the rest of the year. He's earned a 40 man spot. I'd take him over Gordon. And he's earned the right to be at the top of the pecking order as the 13th man, super-utility option going in to 2024. No debate there at all. Love the guy.

But I can't dismiss the idea that he's got to keep doing what he's doing...maybe continue to improve...because there ARE other options in 2024 to replace him, or a roster deep enough, potentially, that he becomes the 14th man.

Pretty much agree with all you've said, with a subtle adjustment. I think he's earned the right to be at the top of the pecking order as the 14th man, which is why it's significant not to burn his option this year.

As in, plan the roster so that you don't need Castro, but recognize there will be very few days when you don't have at least one player on the IL. If you plan with Castro as your No. 13, he will most often be your 12th or 11th.

I think he fits the "long-term plan." As in, the Twins emphasis on position flexibility means that their long-term plan will almost always include a place for a Castro-type in his Arb years, preferably with an option. A guy like this is disposable, not in the sense that he is bad, but in that that he will be disposed of when he reaches free agency, replaced by someone with a similar profile. For 2024 and maybe even 2025, he's the leading candidate for this role, but he'll be replaced by Castro 2.0 in a couple years.

TwinsDr2021 · July 21, 2023

The question asked was - "Has Willi Castro Forced Himself into the Twins' Long-Term Plans?"

and the answer to that question is a resounding No. You never put a utility player in your long term plan, ever, especially with one option and only two years of control.

With that said he deserves to be on this years team with the way the team currently stands, there could be trades made that make it really hard to carry him, but I doubt that happens. I also has believe he has earned a real shot at being the utility player for next year.

RpR · July 21, 2023

He has not forced anything, his play has earned him a spot on the starting team.

roger · July 22, 2023

Very interesting discussion, and surprisingly long read.

When looking at what this discussion is really about, Castro versus Gordon, I see an easy decision. Castro plays six positions, most very well and a couple even better. Gordon plays the same six positions, a couple ok, but he is brutal at several (shortstop and third). Its been awhile since seeing Gordon play, but doesn't Castro also have a much better arm?

Castro runs the bases very well and steals a lot of bases. Gordon may have equal speed, but does he? If he does we sure haven't seen it as he doesn't attempt to steal bases very often. Yes, Gordon had a hot bat part of last year, but this spring seemed to be more what we should have expected. So Castro's bat is likely as good or better, AND he is a switch hitter.

Seems to me an easy decision. Castro should be in the Twins plans moving forward, Gordon NOT.

Damn shame Gordon is on the IL and can't be traded before the deadline. Hopefully, he will get healthy and the Twins can get something, anything for him over the winter because they sure as heck can use his 40-man roster spot for one of those kids many of you want playing every day for the Twins.

stringer bell · July 22, 2023

5 hours ago, roger said:

Very interesting discussion, and surprisingly long read.

When looking at what this discussion is really about, Castro versus Gordon, I see an easy decision. Castro plays six positions, most very well and a couple even better. Gordon plays the same six positions, a couple ok, but he is brutal at several (shortstop and third). Its been awhile since seeing Gordon play, but doesn't Castro also have a much better arm?

Castro runs the bases very well and steals a lot of bases. Gordon may have equal speed, but does he? If he does we sure haven't seen it as he doesn't attempt to steal bases very often. Yes, Gordon had a hot bat part of last year, but this spring seemed to be more what we should have expected. So Castro's bat is likely as good or better, AND he is a switch hitter.

Seems to me an easy decision. Castro should be in the Twins plans moving forward, Gordon NOT.

Damn shame Gordon is on the IL and can't be traded before the deadline. Hopefully, he will get healthy and the Twins can get something, anything for him over the winter because they sure as heck can use his 40-man roster spot for one of those kids many of you want playing every day for the Twins.

Nick Gordon has played only a few innings at third base and right field. The manager definitely prefers Willi Castro at shortstop (as well as third base and right field) to Gordon.

Nick isn’t blessed with the speed that Dee Gordon had. He is an average runner as measured by sprint speed and home-to-first. He has the same sprint speed as Julien and Kirilloff. Castro is much faster.

DocBauer · July 23, 2023

On 7/20/2023 at 5:41 AM, weitz41 said:

I'm not ready to part ways with Gordon because of 91 total AB's this season. A bad month to month and a half. Relax... It will take some unpopular decisions to make it work but I don't see him going anywhere once healthy. I'd rather have both Castro and Gordon. Plus, the trade deadline is coming up which might change who are our bench players.

Bench players

2023 a catcher, Farmer, Castro and Solano

2024 a catcher, Farmer, Castro and Gordon. That seems pretty solid to me.

I've been rooting for Gordon and was generally impressed with his break in 2021 year, especially learning the OF on the fly. He was basically the same player to begin 2022 before really breaking out the second half. It's really a shame he started so poorly this year, and then got hurt just when he started to heat up. No updates I'm aware of, but when his leg does heal, he's going to need a long rehab. Personally, I don't expect to see him again this year. And that might be a good thing for him, to just re-set for 2024.

But while I root for him, and like him, especially if he can recover his 2nd half 2022 self, I'm not sure if he fits for 2024. And not just because of Castro. I think it's debatable as to defense at 2B and SS between the two as I'm not sure we've seen enough to accurately compare them there. But I'd say they are similar in LF/CF and Castro better at 3B. Despite a few opposing comments, I think Gordon has just as much speed as Castro. But after going 10-1 in SB in 2021, he slipped to 6-4 in 2022, oversliding a base more than once, and didn't have a SB this year. So I've got to give Castro the edge as a baserunner and SB threat. It does appear Gordon may have a bit more power, if we can have faith in his 2022.

I expect Farmer back next year. We still have to settle what's going to happen with Polanco next year. How do you fit all the options, not including Lee, who I'm still betting begins 2024 at AAA. So Lewis, Castro, Julien, Polanco, Farmer, various options at 1B including Kirilloff, maybe Julien, and what about Miranda? Gordon's best shot, IMO, is part of the OF mix, depending how things turn out there. Gallo is gone. Hard to believe at least one of Taylor and Kepler is gone, if not both. Buxton is the elephant in the room, but not going there. But CF has to be figured out, and with Celestino and Martin losing so much development time this year due to injury, I don't see them as factors until maybe later in the year. And we've still got the Larnach and Wallner situation to be figured out. Does Lewis move to CF?

I like Gordon and have continued to root for him. But his best chance is either fitting in to the OF somewhere...with the ability to still play limited INF...or just outperform Castro next ST. But I'm not sure there's room for him.

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