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  • Giants 4, Twins 1: Bailey Ober's Early Struggles, Twins' Lack of Offense Leads to Loss


    Nate Palmer

    The Minnesota Twins had a Giants bullpen game served up on a platter for them to take game one of the homestand. Instead the night was filled with an uncharacteristic opening for Bailey Ober and a non-existent offense which led to a Twins loss.

    Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

    Twins Video

     

    Box Score
    SP: Bailey Ober: 5.0 IP, 3 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 2 K (76 pitches, 49 strikes (64.5%)
    Home Runs: Kyle Garlick (2)
    Bottom 3 WPA: Bailey Ober (-0.247), Kyle Farmer (-0.128), Michael A. Taylor (-0.123)

    Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs

    image.png.2f0296817847c9ced14cede1e0461b2b.png

    Before the game's first pitch, the Twins shared great news after a weekend filled with injuries. That news was that Byron Buxton would, in fact, be able to play Monday night in the series opener against the Giants. As the lineup struggles, it cannot afford to miss Buxton’s bat.  

    Walks Will Haunt
    Over his first five starts, Bailey Ober has been very good at two things. He has limited walks and home runs. Coming into Monday’s game, Ober had allowed two home runs and seven walks to opposing batters, giving him a fantastic 1.78 ERA and making him a valuable part of the Twins starting rotation. 

    It is those pristine numbers that made the sloppy first inning Monday so strange. Ober handed free passes to the first two batters, which set the table for J.D. Davis to double home the game's first run. In the next at-bat, Michael Conforto took Ober deep for a 3-run home run putting the Giants up 4-0 before an out was recorded. 

    Haunts to Flaunts
    While the first inning was a nightmare, Ober deserves a truckload of credit for settling in and working quickly through the rest of his start. Over the next four innings, Ober only allowed one hit and no walks. The right-hander did great work at saving the bullpen and giving time for the offense to try and chip away at the lead. (More on that later.)

    Put Me in Coach…
    Edouard Julien was set to get time at second base and hit cleanup for the Twins. Well, he did play second base but never had the opportunity to hit. In the second inning, after the Giants pulled their right-handed opener John Brebbia and turned to left-hander Sean Manaea. Rocco Baldelli made his move. The Twins turned to Donovan Solano over Julien.

    While Solano got a base hit to lead off the inning, the Twins could not do anything with it. It is an interesting managing decision not to let a young hitter get any chance against a struggling Manaea, even if he's a left-hander.

    The Twins had a plan for pinch hitting against the Giants and stuck to it. Not only was Julien lifted early, but so was Alex Kirilloff in favor of Kyle Garlick. While we will focus mainly on the Twins plan for their own offense, credit to the Giants for their plan. The Giants had a clear blueprint to try and neutralize the Twins bench moves, and that plan was executed masterfully.   

    There was quite a level of gamesmanship that went into the Giants plan. Dan Hayes offered up on Twitter that Manaea threw a bullpen session pre-game. A pre-game bullpen would cause any team to assume he wouldn’t be the long arm after the opener. 

    Where’s the Offense?
    As has plagued the Twins all season long, the offense disappeared. What is most frustrating on a night like tonight is that they did so against a pair of pitchers that have performed more like replacement pitchers than anything. Manaea and Tristan Beck are the type of pitchers a competitive ball club should feast on, and the Twins did the exact opposite of that. 

    Garlick did get Beck for a solo home run in the eighth inning in a righty vs. righty matchup. While the home run prevented the shutout, that was all it was good for. Injuries have certainly been an issue for the Twins, but even with the injuries, this lineup is talented enough to have put up crooked numbers against the pitchers they faced Monday. 

    What’s Next? 
    In the second game of the series the Twins will send Sonny Gray to the mound who is still carrying a 1.64 ERA this far into the season. The Giants will counter with their best starter as Alex Cobb takes the mound who has his own sub two ERA AT 1.94 nine starts into his season. 

    Postgame Interviews

     

     

    Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

      THU FRI SAT SUN MON TOT
    Jax 0 33 0 0 17 50
    Sands 0 0 0 0 44 44
    De León 0 0 0 31 0 31
    J. López 0 0 19 12 0 31
    Pagán 0 0 0 0 23 23
    Durán 0 0 20 0 0 20
    Stewart 0 11 5 0 0 16
    Morán 0 0 9 0 0 9

     

     

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    Here's how I view things:  MLB is the pinnacle for managers.  There are 30 MLB manager jobs.  Is Rocco Baldelli one of the 30 best people at his job on the planet?  

    I'm not calling for his head, because a) who cares about my opinion? b) try not to be one of those "fire everybody" fans c) Falvine would just replace him with a clone.  

    But seeing a clearly over his head Rocco flail away last night was the sports equivalent of a cringe comedy.  Uncomfortable to watch.  At some point you wonder if it would be a mercy if he was let go.  

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    Had to turn this one off last night,manager out managed again. Team only wants to play homerun. Its all about look at me look at me. I get to wear a dumb vest. Where was the coaching when Ober had the bad start. Let's wait until the damage is done. Then we get to see hitter after hitter swinging for the fences,so we can score 1 run at a time. Rocco said he is fine with his team swinging for fences. I have a miner league team here that may be worth seeing. A team that strikes out 12 to 16 times a game is not worth my time.

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    33 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

    Here's how I view things:  MLB is the pinnacle for managers.  There are 30 MLB manager jobs.  Is Rocco Baldelli one of the 30 best people at his job on the planet?  

    I'm not calling for his head, because a) who cares about my opinion? b) try not to be one of those "fire everybody" fans c) Falvine would just replace him with a clone.  

    But seeing a clearly over his head Rocco flail away last night was the sports equivalent of a cringe comedy.  Uncomfortable to watch.  At some point you wonder if it would be a mercy if he was let go.  

    Does a manager have options?  Can we send him to St. Paul, bring up Toby, and go back and forth based on who we are playing at the time?  😉

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    3 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

    You are correct -- 10 baserunners total in the game. 4 hits, 4 walks and 2 hit by pitch. 

    Solano with a single and two walks - 

    Garlick with a walk and a home run AGAINST A RIGHT HANDER that Rocco never would have allowed to happen if he didn't paint himself into a corner by the third inning. 

    Jeffers got plunked by a pitch as a pinch hitter for Gallo in the 9th.

    That is 6 out of 10 base runners in the game. 

    The rest of the lineup managed:

    Castro 1 Single - 1 Double

    Vasquez 1 BB

    Buxton 1 HBP

    I'll add that the ERA's (prior to the game) that befuddled our offense were:

    1 Inning - Brebbia - 4.26 (RHP)

    3.1 Inning - Manaea - 7.81 (LHP)

    2.2 Inning - Beck - 5.71 (RHP)

    0.2 Innings - Tyler Rogers - 2.22 (RHP) (He's been good)

    1 Inning - Alexander - 4.67 (LHP)

    And I'll echo what plenty have said - 16 strikeouts. 

     

    Now that we got that out of the way. 😉

    It was a stupid move. 

     

    Just a correction. Correa with a single and double plus 2 K's. Not Castro. Castro struck out 4 times and played an atrocious game in left as well

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    11 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

    Huh?

    Solano, Garlick and Jeffers were on base in 6 of their 8 plate appearances including the only run after starting on the bench. Hardly neutralized. Give credit to Baldelli for countering the opener so masterfully. It was the starting line up that was the problem. The bench moves were the only offense.

    In the words of Hawk Harrelson. "You can't be serious"

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    It appears the Twins may not have a winning record by the end of May.  Last year it took 4 months to drop below .500, but it may happen in May this year.  Just do not understand why  anyone thinks Rocco is a good manager? There must be better choices out there, but we may be stuck with him for many losing years to come. He has no clue on how to handle pitchers, had losing record last year in one run games and losing record in extra inning games. Why is he still the manager of the Twins?

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    Did I watch the same game as everyone else? The team played horrible and the strikeouts made the game frustrating to watch, but unless I missed the note about the team meeting before the game where Rocco told the players to play terribly I'm not sure what he is being ripped for this time. His bench moves, thought strange, worked last night, and the bullpen management was fine.

     

    This team is frustrating and Rocco certainly deserves criticism for some of his decisions this year,  but last night is not on him. It's on the players.

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    1 hour ago, Mark G said:

    Does a manager have options?  Can we send him to St. Paul, bring up Toby, and go back and forth based on who we are playing at the time?  😉

    Here a thought  ,  stretched as it may be  ...

    Is it possible that this front office  and manager are being paid under the table ( by cleveland or Chicago ) to be the worst team in twins history  ...

    This team does have talent but it always seems that something or someone is holding  back that talent  and changes aren't made for a better outcome  ...

    I can't believe we just extended our manager during the season  , could be my theory  may be possible  as anyone will do anything for money in today's society  ...

    The FO  and manager won't listen to the fans concerns  and it's the old timers that actually go to watch the game , the younger  ones go to party and don't watch the game  ....

    This was not written by randsballstu 

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    2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

    It's generally not a good idea to make your platoon pinch hitting decisions in the 2nd inning. It's also not a good idea to use your pinch hitter to replace your best batter (Kirilloff). This seems desperate for a game in May.

    Listening to his post game comments the 4 run first put the urgency into the moves. Which is odd, because there isn't an urgency to score runs in any other situations. Wouldn't he try to chip away and get a run every chance with small ball? No indication of urgency in extra innings. It feels like the only move he thinks he has is a left right match up.

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    23 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

    Listening to his post game comments the 4 run first put the urgency into the moves. Which is odd, because there isn't an urgency to score runs in any other situations. Wouldn't he try to chip away and get a run every chance with small ball? No indication of urgency in extra innings. It feels like the only move he thinks he has is a left right match up.

    Lost in all the lineup discussion, the pitching was excellent overall. Ober had a 4 hitter ouch, which happens occasionally, but responded like an ace. I would have loved to see him go more than 79 pitches but I've posted enough about Rocco.

    How many times have we watched a Twins game where they jumped on a Verlander for 3 or 4 and nervously watch a bad Tigers offense chip away and then whoops? Verlander recovers, we look anemic and feel lucky if we pull one out.

    There is no reason to panic after the first.

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    13 hours ago, Old Crow said:

    The team right now seems listless and looks sloppy.  A different lineup every night maximizing left right match ups doesn't appear to be working all that well.  Maybe using a set lineup for a few games would allow some of these guys to get a little rythem going.

    Hide Rocco's notebook.

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    I praised an 11 year old last night for having a productive at bat and moving 2 guys over.  Surely even if you expect Kiriloff to be futile against Sean Manea he seems like the kind of hitter who will still have a professional productive at bat.  I don't get it, this is not a watchable product.  

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    Thank God for that Garlick home run. Without that, what would the Twins official website headline have read?

    Carlos Correa's Batting Average Skyrockets to .213?

    Byron Buxton Avoids Double Play and Injury?

    I mean. Not that much to spin positive.

     

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    14 hours ago, darwin22 said:

    This team is UNWATCHABLE trying to hit a baseball.  

    Call me a fair weather fan if you want.  Thats fine.  Been a life long fan going back to the early 70s.  Attended many games at the Ol Met as well as the Metrodome.  Followed this team for 50+ years and have witnessed A LOT of bad hitters in Twins lineups since the early 70s.

    I know that game has changed.  Many consider batting average obsolete.  I don't.  Many say that high whiff rates just have to be accepted.  I refuse to accept that.  Many more say that stolen bases are meaningless/ too much risk.  Count me opposed to that belief.

    For those who've been strong fans of this team for even 10 years, let alone 50+---I have to ask the following:  When was the last time that TWINS PITCHERS this deep into the season have been ranked in the top 4 of MLB in ALL the following categories:

    Prior to tonights game:

    ERA:  3.43/ 3rd

    Quality Starts:  24/ Tied for 1st

    HR allowed:  43/ 4th

    K's:  464--------1st

    Opponents batting average:  .225/ 2nd

    WHIP:  1.17/ 2nd

    Answer to above question:  I would venture with great certainty to say----NEVER!

    One would think with those IMPRESSIVE team pitching staff, you'd have better than a piddling 25-22 W-L record.

    Why is that the case?  Simple answer:  A team that is unbearable to watch hitting unless you just love an occasional SOLO HR.

    For those unaware---Twins hitters --not counting tonights AWFUL performance--had the following ranks in MLB---See if you notice a "theme" here, especially considering what the pitching staff has done:

    Total Bases:  14th/ 649

    K's:  1st (or 30th) Pitiful 458----------will still lead MLB after 16 MORE WHIFFS tonight. Just pitiful.

    Just a quick note:  Guess what MLB team whiffs the least?  If you answered the team that moved to within 2.5 games of leading the AL Central, you'd be correct.

    SB's:  29th/ 16 

    AVG:  14th/ .232

    OBP:  22nd/ .312

    SLG%:  14th/ .408

    OPS:  Tied 15th (PIT)/ .720

    Commonality:  No rank anywhere the "top 10" in any of those areas.

    * For those who might argue I "cherry picked" these stats saying..." Hey the Twins rank #7 in HRs!"  My counter argument would be.  How many of those have been solo HRs?  I'd venture at least 50% of the 63 hit before Garlick's solo job tonight.  I sure as heck know we have ZERO grand slams as we've got to the WORST team in MLB this season with the bases loaded.  At least count, I think  it was 5-43---all singles for a robust .116 avg.

    It is just sickening to me that this collection of hitters continues to FAIL to make contact by whiffing at such a horrendous rate.  Now, 474 whiffs in 48 games!  Thats an average of 9.875 per game!  Even with all the changes in MLB---one thing hasn't changed:  Teams only get 27 outs.  Right now this collection of misfits is recording 36.5% of "outs per game" by taking a turn back to the dugout.  That is unacceptable no matter year it is.  If this pace continues, this team...once AGAIN will be playing meaningless games by August into September.  Pretty disgusting as this pitching staff (mainly the SPs) deserves so much better.

     

     

     

     

    This comment should be promoted a front page article. It would be cathartic for many of us.

    All well said!!!!!

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    14 hours ago, darwin22 said:

    It is just sickening to me that this collection of hitters continues to FAIL to make contact by whiffing at such a horrendous rate. 

    Flail and fail. I'm sick of it too, finally got to watch a game and it was not enjoyable. Completely agree with your comment. A lot of truth in there.

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    15 hours ago, darwin22 said:

    This team is UNWATCHABLE trying to hit a baseball.  

    Call me a fair weather fan if you want.  Thats fine.  Been a life long fan going back to the early 70s.  Attended many games at the Ol Met as well as the Metrodome.  Followed this team for 50+ years and have witnessed A LOT of bad hitters in Twins lineups since the early 70s.

    I know that game has changed.  Many consider batting average obsolete.  I don't.  Many say that high whiff rates just have to be accepted.  I refuse to accept that.  Many more say that stolen bases are meaningless/ too much risk.  Count me opposed to that belief.

    For those who've been strong fans of this team for even 10 years, let alone 50+---I have to ask the following:  When was the last time that TWINS PITCHERS this deep into the season have been ranked in the top 4 of MLB in ALL the following categories:

    Prior to tonights game:

    ERA:  3.43/ 3rd

    Quality Starts:  24/ Tied for 1st

    HR allowed:  43/ 4th

    K's:  464--------1st

    Opponents batting average:  .225/ 2nd

    WHIP:  1.17/ 2nd

    Answer to above question:  I would venture with great certainty to say----NEVER!

    One would think with those IMPRESSIVE team pitching staff, you'd have better than a piddling 25-22 W-L record.

    Why is that the case?  Simple answer:  A team that is unbearable to watch hitting unless you just love an occasional SOLO HR.

    For those unaware---Twins hitters --not counting tonights AWFUL performance--had the following ranks in MLB---See if you notice a "theme" here, especially considering what the pitching staff has done:

    Total Bases:  14th/ 649

    K's:  1st (or 30th) Pitiful 458----------will still lead MLB after 16 MORE WHIFFS tonight. Just pitiful.

    Just a quick note:  Guess what MLB team whiffs the least?  If you answered the team that moved to within 2.5 games of leading the AL Central, you'd be correct.

    SB's:  29th/ 16 

    AVG:  14th/ .232

    OBP:  22nd/ .312

    SLG%:  14th/ .408

    OPS:  Tied 15th (PIT)/ .720

    Commonality:  No rank anywhere the "top 10" in any of those areas.

    * For those who might argue I "cherry picked" these stats saying..." Hey the Twins rank #7 in HRs!"  My counter argument would be.  How many of those have been solo HRs?  I'd venture at least 50% of the 63 hit before Garlick's solo job tonight.  I sure as heck know we have ZERO grand slams as we've got to the WORST team in MLB this season with the bases loaded.  At least count, I think  it was 5-43---all singles for a robust .116 avg.

    It is just sickening to me that this collection of hitters continues to FAIL to make contact by whiffing at such a horrendous rate.  Now, 474 whiffs in 48 games!  Thats an average of 9.875 per game!  Even with all the changes in MLB---one thing hasn't changed:  Teams only get 27 outs.  Right now this collection of misfits is recording 36.5% of "outs per game" by taking a turn back to the dugout.  That is unacceptable no matter year it is.  If this pace continues, this team...once AGAIN will be playing meaningless games by August into September.  Pretty disgusting as this pitching staff (mainly the SPs) deserves so much better.

     

     

     

     

    You are 100% correct. With our pitchers success Twins should have a huge lead. Most hitters look clueless! In the last 4 games, the Twins have struck out 16 times in 2 different games---against pitchers with ERA's 4.85 and above. Pathetic!!

    Put the ball in play!!! It appears the Twins hitting coach is clueless in developing an approach based on the pitcher being faced. A couple weeks ago, the weather was too cold. It's warmed up and they have played on the West coast and the results are the same. Hit strikes and lay off the high plus the low and outside pitches.

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    The club is above .500 and above the mean in run-scoring. They strike out way too much and I think that perhaps a two-strike approach is needed, but they aren't as wobegone as the loudest voices on TD are saying. Whenever a team is not hitting, they look bad. I'm guessing if you ask the fans in Cleveland that they still like their offense when they make contact, they'll say they'd like to see more runs scored. 

    Also, unless someone has proof, I don't buy the idea that "a few double digit wins" skews the run-scoring numbers. 

    The composition of the roster has a lot of guys who are "bat first" (including Buxton if he's only a DH). They don't have much team speed and things like hit-and-runs are non-starters because of the lack of contact by the hitters. 

    Defensively, the club is mostly competent, but there aren't many "oh, my!" plays. When mistakes are made, they aren't made up by out-of-zone plays or other extremely athletic plays.

    Coupled with so-far outstanding pitching, this club should be a contender. Add in some dynamic play by guys who weren't available at the start of the season, it's possible they might be better than a contender.

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    11 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

    You are correct -- 10 baserunners total in the game. 4 hits, 4 walks and 2 hit by pitch. 

    Solano with a single and two walks - 

    Garlick with a walk and a home run AGAINST A RIGHT HANDER that Rocco never would have allowed to happen if he didn't paint himself into a corner by the third inning. 

    Jeffers got plunked by a pitch as a pinch hitter for Gallo in the 9th.

    That is 6 out of 10 base runners in the game. 

    The rest of the lineup managed:

    Castro 1 Single - 1 Double

    Vasquez 1 BB

    Buxton 1 HBP

    I'll add that the ERA's (prior to the game) that befuddled our offense were:

    1 Inning - Brebbia - 4.26 (RHP)

    3.1 Inning - Manaea - 7.81 (LHP)

    2.2 Inning - Beck - 5.71 (RHP)

    0.2 Innings - Tyler Rogers - 2.22 (RHP) (He's been good)

    1 Inning - Alexander - 4.67 (LHP)

    And I'll echo what plenty have said - 16 strikeouts. 

     

    Now that we got that out of the way. 😉

    It was a stupid move. 

     

    YES!

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