Four Takeaways From the Minnesota Twins' First Half

3 hours ago, srlarson said:

Time to dump the high priced vets and let the "kids" play......Get what you can...but unload the salaries even if only for a 6 pack......  Farmer, Margot........Santana  I am either way on....and would love to see Vazquez gone...but no one is taking that contract.....guys hitting under .200 just don't belong in the majors.....

Would love to see Lewis, Correa, Lee, and Miranda in the infield in the 2nd half

With Lewis and Martin likely out until September, Farmer is needed.   Santana is a key cog.  Margot, I can agree with.

8 games left against the Guardos that could decide the Central. 
4 home Aug 9-11

4 away Sept 16-19

4 hours ago, arby58 said:

I'm not as high on Martin (at least so far) as some. Sure, he gives them positional flexibility, but he has looked a little lost at those positions at times. Also, his -0.2 WAR is nothing to write home about. 

I completely agree, and now with him hurt his trade value isn't there.

5 hours ago, William K Johnson said:

The "Core Four" (Lewis, Buxton, Correa and Lee) seem ready for an extended run if not beset by the injury bug.   Kepler is in one of his pop-up runs, Larnach's strike out issue seems to be re-emerging, Miranda may never take a walk again and Castro is in a little bit of a slump.   However, if these guys and Wallner can contribute something daily, the offense will be fine.   Time to move on from Margot, Santana and Farmer.   Martin looks like a solid utility player.    Also need to figure out if Kiriloff is the answer at first or what other options are available there.

No one expected Cleveland to be this good.   David Fry (All-Star), Freeman, Martinez, and even Bo Naylor have been surprising.    You have to tip your hat to their staff, replacing Shane Bieber without a hiccup is a testimony to their front office.   Bullpen is a good as there is, and their Core four (Kwan, Naylor, Ramirez, Gimenez) are consistently good.

On the pitching front, Joe Ryan may be the greatest trade in Twins history.   If he continues progressing the way he is, he could possibly be an ace of this rotation, if not already.   Ober continues to amaze with his consistency, Lopez surely will figure out the problem with his breaking balls, but after that, everything is up in the air.  SMR has been pleasant surprise, but I have a feeling he will eventually hit a wall.    Paddack is still very questionable.

Bullpen seems to be getting better but still could use an additional arm or two.   Stewart and Topia's return should help but more is needed.   A left hander in particular would help, as neither Okert or Funderburk appear to be the answer and how much is left in Thielbar?

All in all, it appears that we should have an interesting second half.

 

I would put the Joe Nathan deal over the Ryan one.

I think it was Tom F who tipped me off on this. The Twins have seemed remarkably streaky, but have been very consistent month by month.

3 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Who are these 3 playoff caliber starters you're referencing?
Joe Ryan (who has collapsed every 2nd half in his career),
Simeon Woods Richardson (117 IP last year on pace for 160 IP this year)... and?
Lopez = 5.11 ERA
Ober = 4.14 ERA
Paddack = 5.18 ERA

I think the Twins are looking pretty dicey at those playoff caliber starters right now.
 

The truth is frowned upon in these parts...

IMO we started out the off-season very badly. Made some bonehead moves & ingrained the "all or nothing" approach that was doomed to fail.

We started out great with Lewis  but w/o Lewis, later Correa & Buxton & the league had the book to counter our hitting, we took an awful gut punch. To give Baldelli credit he changed course on our hitting approach (which SEA is still trying to figure out), we slowly improved our offense. Castro has been our anchor especially during the absence of Lewis, Correa & Buxton. Correa has been playing like an all-star, the Buck Truck is making deliveries more frequently, Miranda after having some playing time, he has shifted into another gear, Martin has been valuable & like Miranda he needs more playing time to hit that other gear. Lee as expected hit ground running much like Lewis did. Wallner returned from AAA a better hitter & fielder & Julien isn't far behind. I have great faith in our young core & advocated not picking up inferior veteran roadblocks that have set us back. For our superior young players to develop properly for the postseason we need to get rid those roadblocks.

The rotation helped get us through the rough patch. SWR has been a nice surprise, Lopez is going through his readjustment but expect him to get on top of it. Everybody else is doing about what is expected. These guys can get us to the dance but it'd be nice to have another top tier SP to advance in  the postseason.  

The new acquisitions have done pretty much what I expected which is not much. Except Staumont I expected the TOS to be a non factor because we can expect at least one good inning but not any more or with frequency with Staumont. Jax has been steady, Duran & Thielbar have regressed. I have hope that Duran will rebound but I don't expect Thielbar no more than serviceable. Once managed correctly Alcala has proven valuable. Varland has not been taken advantaged of in the pen yet. Because of my doubt with Thielbar IMO we need a LHRP set up man.

I like where we are sitting but CLE is having a great season because they had faith in their young players & kept a good hitting philosophy. It's expected that CLE will pick up a SP. We need to add to our needs finally if we want to win the division.

1) April stats are overrated

2) This team needs at least one everyday corner outfielder (especially going into 2025)

3) Prospects are fun!

4) This team has positional player depth and, dare I say, health? Two years in a row with fewer than 10 pitchers starting games is relatively unheard of in today's MLB. Which is quite fortunate, as the SP depth is less this year.

Several observations

1.  The Twins are 10 runs scored away from being tied for top scoring team in the league.  
2. Our bullpen is currently 6 deep in terms of competence from the relievers,  Staumont, Duran, Jax, Sands, Alcala, and barely Okert.  Stewart is 7 and he should be back soon, probably after the all-star break.  and we still have depth and Varland (I think we may acquire a reliever at the deadline but what do I know).  

3.  I think our defense has been better too.  I don't hear too many negatives about it

4.  Festa pitched better than his record shows.  He only walked one and made it through 5 innings in both of his starts.  He had 4 bad pitches that resulted in HRs against him which is a lot in 10 innings.  otherwise, he likely would have given up less than half the runs he did.  This tells me he is close.

5.  Woods-Richardson has been a rotation savior.   Ober and Paddacks ERA is slighted by a few bad starts.  They have pitched mostly better.  we just have to hope we get the good results in the playoffs.  I am surprised by Lopez pitching so poorly this year.  

6.  Our deficit with Cleveland is from the 7-13 start when we had several injuries and slumps at the same time.  Cleveland will likely go through a patch like this too.  NY is now.  It will be fun to watch the rest of the season.  

4 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Who are these 3 playoff caliber starters you're referencing?
Joe Ryan (who has collapsed every 2nd half in his career),
Simeon Woods Richardson (117 IP last year on pace for 160 IP this year)... and?
Lopez = 5.11 ERA
Ober = 4.14 ERA
Paddack = 5.18 ERA

I think the Twins are looking pretty dicey at those playoff caliber starters right now.
 

Couldn't agree more

We do not have 3 quality playoff starters on this rostor.  You need shut down pitchers in the playoffs, because you will be facing better 1 and 2 starters than what we have. 

3 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I would like to see a rotation add but it's only likely possible with someone on a lesser contract like Tyler Anderson or Erik Fedde, and the prospect cost is going to be high on both, Not holding my breath. No Kikuchi for me. A bullpen add would really help and it doesn't have to be a high end piece liek Estevez or Tanner Scott They would both be great but again, the prospect cost will be high. I'd be happy with Kirby Yates, Aroldis Chapman, or Lucas Erceg if we don't have to overspend too badly. Heck, even Chafin or Beeks might help. No need to augment the lineup at trade deadline pricing. 

I was gung-ho on getting Fedde until I noticed that he's past 30 and his season ERA is nearly two runs lower than his career average. Getting him for the stretch run reminds me of what the FO hoped to get out of Jorge Lopez.

3 hours ago, wabene said:

I think it was Tom F who tipped me off on this. The Twins have seemed remarkably streaky, but have been very consistent month by month.

Through the first two games in Pittsburgh, the Twins were streaky in the extreme. From that point on they've been considerably steadier, similar to September last season. I think the current modus operandi is sustainable after the All-Star break, provided that they stay healthy. I'm cautiously optimistic that the Twins in current form can get to the ALCS.

3 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

So the first 93 have gone about as well as could be expected. 

11-5 in SWR’s starts

11-6 in Paddack’s starts

11-8 in Lopez’ starts

9-9 in Ober’s starts

10-8 in Ryan’s starts

Top 3 guys are starting against tougher competition & Team is 30-25 in their games…not bad!

The Maeda/Gray replacements have a Team record of 22–11 in their starts…..better than excellent!

Festa/Varland have 7 combined starts and Team has won only 2 of those 7 games ….., ouch!

Stewart - Topa seem to both be coming over next 2-4 weeks. Thielbar has had 6 straight decent outings.

All I see are the comments about how the Team should assemble a perfect roster ….”need a lefty” …..”need a starter or else” …………..”need a starter and 2 relievers”…. I get this is a discussion forum but it’s not Fantasy Baseball.

Only need 4 starters in Playoffs…..with health, SWR is at least an Opener as the 4th starter.

Dodgers - Orioles - Red Sox - Guardians - Mets - Milwaukee - etc. etc. “need starting pitching & a little bullpen help for the stretch”……..good luck acquiring the Twin’s needs v. these other organizations.

Playoff Pen:

Thielbar or Okert - Alcala - Paddack - Varland - Staumont - Stewart - Jax - Duran ……how much better can a Pen get??? Are these guys flawless ….. nobody is, but I sure like this group! As a group, they have to have the best collective “stuff” in the game come October 1st.

I like the lineup and pen too. The team is winning because the offense has scored the 4th most runs in MLB, not because the starting pitching is winning games. Ober was pretty dang good last year and got rocked in his only playoff start. They didn't trust Ryan in the playoffs last year either. SMW has been terrific, but so was Dobnak in 2019. There are only two starters on the Twins with even an above average ERA-Ryan and SMW. 

Arizona did well in the playoffs with two studs in their rotation and Brandon Pfaadt. Texas had Montgomery, Eovaldi and Scherzer. Twins can definitely make the playoffs as constructed but can Ober and Ryan be the second and third guy you trust to get 20 outs in a postseason game? Idk.