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    Falvey's First Stand

    Nick Nelson

    By Nick Nelson

    Derek Falvey was probably still unpacking his boxes at Target Field when communications first opened with the Los Angeles Dodgers, setting off months of Brian Dozier trade negotiations that would ultimately prove fruitless.

    The standoff will almost certainly prove to be a defining point in Falvey's young career.

    Image courtesy of Rick Osentoski, USA Today

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    It was quite the situation to inherit. Held up by Cleveland's run to the World Series, Falvey got a belated start with the Twins. At 33, the second-youngest top baseball executive in the league found himself almost instantly entangled in a high-stakes showdown with one of the game's most legendary franchises – led by a high-profile exec in Andrew Friedman – over the best player on his new team.

    Shortly after he came aboard, Falvey brought in his general manager, Thad Levine. It's likely that Levine handled the majority of the direct discussions. But the two (along with Rob Antony and the rest of the front office) agreed upon a minimum return that would justify moving Dozier, and their unwavering commitment to that valuation ultimately falls upon the top dog.

    Without knowing the specifics of the best offer Minnesota turned down, it is difficult to cast any immediate judgments. We know Jose De Leon was on the table, but indications continue to suggest that Los Angeles refused to include one of Julio Urias, Yadier Alvarez or Walker Buehler in addition. A lengthy stalemate ensued.

    On Monday, the Dodgers finally made their move, dealing De Leon instead to the Tampa Bay Rays for second baseman Logan Forsythe, who could fairly be described as "Dozier Lite." Barring some hugely unforeseen development, the Twins will carry now Dozier into the 2017 season.

    At this moment, that looks like the right move. De Leon is a shiny prospect, and exactly the type of player Minnesota needed back as a headliner, but with a 1-to-1 swap and no meaningful auxiliary components the risks are sky-high.

    The risk he faces now is that Dozier suffers another first-half slump, or a significant overall regression, while De Leon takes off in Tampa. That glaring missed opportunity would trail Falvey and his front office for a while, especially if the Twins keep wallowing in mediocrity (or worse) and the pitching doesn't improve in a hurry.

    But I wouldn't say such a combination of outcomes is at all likely. Dozier is a star player in his prime, coming off one of the best seasons in team history. De Leon is a good prospect but hardly a can't-miss. While his numbers in the minors were nothing short of dazzling, there are signs the Dodgers weren't terribly high on him, and not all scouts were either.

    Per Jeff Passan, the Dodgers held the 24-year-old in lesser esteem than at least three of their other young arms, including one who has thrown five innings as a pro. De Leon has yet to accrue even 115 innings in a season. Baseball America's Josh Norris yesterday relayed a scouting report that pegged him with No. 3 starter upside.

    And the Dodgers, at the end of the day, were willing to deal him straight-up for a player in Forsythe who is a major downgrade from Dozier.

    All of these initial indicators point to Falvey and the Twins making the right call. It's possible they'll never get a shot at another prize like De Leon, but that's the gamble they are taking.

    In turn, they've got a lot of outs. If Dozier sustains – hell, even improves – and a more receptive market develops in July or next winter, there will at least be more robust (if not as top-heavy) offers on the table. And if the Twins manage to jump out to a strong start this season, with Dozier playing a big role? That's an outcome everyone can appreciate.

    Regardless of how things play out, this much is certain: In his very first weeks on the job, Falvey faced off against a giant in the game, and held his ground. For better or worse, others around the league will not forget it.

    Nick is a co-founder of Twins Daily who's been writing about the team for more than 15 years.
    Follow Nick Nelson on Twitter: NickNelsonMN

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    Featured Comments

    drivlikejehu

    drivlikejehu 2,201

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    There's also a chance De Leon stays healthy and develops a quality breaking pitch. Adding that third pitch basically means that becomes a top of the rotation guy. Basically, the only risk to De Leon is his shoulder. If he stays healthy he's got a really high floor even without that third pitch. 

     

    There's also zero chance of Dozier helping us solve our pitching problem if we don't trade him. 

     

    This is not correct - there is a very high chance that De Leon just isn't very good. That's basically true for almost any pitching prospect. Many posters do not realize how high the failure rates are for performance reasons, not just injury.

    Vanimal46

    Vanimal46 40,498

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

     

    Well even if one deal doesn't DIRECTLY lead to another bad deal, I'm happy Falvey didn't make one with his first move and force us to talk about if this is going to be a pattern and/or if other wiser and better GM's are going to smell blood in the water manipulate him going forward.

     

    In other words, I'd hate to be next Arizona Diamondbacks.

    Instead, Falvey and Levine are like that one guy in your fantasy football league that makes no trades, no pick ups.... Just rolls with the same lineup all season. And you and your buddies say, "Did Thad check out? He paid his league fee right? Cool, free money!" 

    diehardtwinsfan

    diehardtwinsfan 14,830

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    My two cents.  Dozier is a much better player right now... as was stated, his career WAR is significantly more with a similar career arc to date. 

     

    As well, for all the talk about risk, Forsythe is also working on a career year, except that he didn't put a couple of 4 WAR seasons prior to that.  He's also a year older.  The control is the same. The Dodgers got a lesser player and absorbed more risk for JDL.

     

    Honestly, that tells me more about what LA thinks about JDL.  It seems as though they were pretty intent on giving him up and him up alone.

     

    It also tells me that the FO was doing the right thing by sticking to their guns.  Perhaps there was a better offer on the table, but I'm doubting it (sorry Dave, I know you trust your source, but I do not)... not anything of significance at least, and the FO was smart to hold back.

    gunnarthor

    gunnarthor 12,610

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

     

    I guess I misunderstood this part:

     

    "If you think De Leon is a #3/4 type, maybe it's better to roll the dice on a ****ty FA pitcher and keep Dozier"

     

    because that part seems to say that you wouldn't trade Dozier for a number 3 pitcher. Maybe the 4 is bigger.....

    I thought it was clear we were talking about prospects - a prospect that profiles as a future 3/4 is a lot different than a ML pitcher that is a 3/4.  Sorry for the confusion, I could have been more articulate.

    Mike Sixel

    Mike Sixel 54,993

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

     

    This is not correct - there is a very high chance that De Leon just isn't very good. That's basically true for almost any pitching prospect. Many posters do not realize how high the failure rates are for performance reasons, not just injury.

     

    Not fair....what most posters realize is that you need A LOT of pitching prospects, some with ceilings, to end up with a good staff. One way to get those is to trade for them.....I think making assumptions about what most poster don't realize is probably a bad idea.

    Otto von Ballpark

    Otto von Ballpark 20,382

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

     

    I don't know if AZ's problem was being taken advantage of. They just weren't making intelligent decisions. 

    There's probably some truth to that too.  They've made some bad deals independent of other teams (Yasmany Tomas), plus they were making bad deals before Stewart was even around (Eaton and Skaggs for Mark Trumbo!).

     

    Although I do wish the Twins had gotten in on the Arizona trade fest, at least more than Palka!

    d-mac

    d-mac 1,252

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    This is not correct - there is a very high chance that De Leon just isn't very good. That's basically true for almost any pitching prospect. Many posters do not realize how high the failure rates are for performance reasons, not just injury.

     

    Well Steamer has him projected to pitch to a xFIP of 3.83 next year. Most pitching prospects don't have 32/33% K rates in the minors with a 5.55 K/BB ratio in the PACIFIC COAST LEAGUE. If health wasn't a factor and I had to bet on a pitching prospect to make a successful transition to the majors I'd pick De Leon.

    d-mac

    d-mac 1,252

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    My two cents.  Dozier is a much better player right now... as was stated, his career WAR is significantly more with a similar career arc to date. 

     

    As well, for all the talk about risk, Forsythe is also working on a career year, except that he didn't put a couple of 4 WAR seasons prior to that.  He's also a year older.  The control is the same. The Dodgers got a lesser player and absorbed more risk for JDL.

     

    Honestly, that tells me more about what LA thinks about JDL.  It seems as though they were pretty intent on giving him up and him up alone.

     

    It also tells me that the FO was doing the right thing by sticking to their guns.  Perhaps there was a better offer on the table, but I'm doubting it (sorry Dave, I know you trust your source, but I do not)... not anything of significance at least, and the FO was smart to hold back.

     

    Well Forsythe has one more year of control plus an option year. Plus his batted profile is much more low risk than Dozier. Someone posted this early in the thread: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/dodgers-trade-for-brian-dozier-basically/

    Otto von Ballpark

    Otto von Ballpark 20,382

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

     

    As well, for all the talk about risk, Forsythe is also working on a career year, except that he didn't put a couple of 4 WAR seasons prior to that.  He's also a year older.

    Forsythe has 2 pretty similar years, I'm not sure there's a "career year" standout in there.  There's nothing in there boosting his numbers for those 2 years like Dozier's recent run.  He's also not a year older, he's ~4 months older.

    chpettit19

    chpettit19 23,687

  • Community Moderator

    • Posted

    I'm a huge fan of prospects and love all the lists and rankings and info that come out on them. I follow it more than the average baseball fan. But prospects are just prospects. Dozier isn't a world beater and is probably at least slightly over valued in our fan minds because that's pretty basic human nature. My preference has been to trade away our veteran players for prospects for the last 5 years, but the veterans that should have been traded were the ones we were bringing in for 1 year and then extending after they had career years in their 30s. Those are the guys you trade for what you can get and hope one of the prospects hit and you get a good player. Trading an established MLB All Star for 1 prospect isn't the way you rebuild. The Rays trade is interesting, but we need to remember that they're in a different situation than the Twins. They're closer to competing than the Twins are and if De Leon hits they can trade from their excess of starting pitchers to fill holes. The Twins have 2 trade chips anyone would want (other than Buxton and Sano type young guys). I would have preferred both Dozier and Santana being traded, but trading either of them for 1 prospect wouldn't be helpful. Even if De Leon turns into the next Kershaw it doesn't mean the Twins screwed up by not getting him. Right now all he is is a prospect who's never thrown anywhere near 200 innings, while Dozier is a streaky hitter, he is a proven MLB player.

     

    I also don't understand the frustration with the FO so far. Would it have been nice if the roster had major changes and we would be competing for championships starting in 2017. I'd love that. But I don't know what realistic moves people think could have been made. Even if they wanted to go out and make huge splashes and spend a ton of money I don't know what they could have done. They need pitching. The offense is serviceable. Would it be nice to have Trumbo, Encarnacion, Napoli, Desmond, "whoever else you thought was a good free agent bat?" Yes it would be awesome to have a bunch of big sluggers and watch the ball fly out at record rates and score a ton of runs. Ask the Rockies and they'll tell you you still won't win if you can't get outs. There were no pitchers on the free agent market this year that would have made any drastic improvement to our rotation. There were some bullpen arms that would have really helped, but the prices were insane for the good ones. It's very realistic to think the Twins will add another piece or 2 from the left over free agents as prices continue to come down, but none of them will make a huge difference. And as far as trades go I don't know what the expectations could have been there either. Again they only have 2 pieces to trade that could bring any return that would be helpful. Trading Santana means you then have 0 good, reliable starters for this season. I would be ok with that, but you better bring back multiple arms that could help down the road. Dozier is too good to only bring back 1 prospect of De Leon's level. At that point trading people just to do it so people think you're doing things is counterproductive. Hold onto Dozier and hope the market opens up more down the road and if not enjoy him hitting 25+ homers the next 2 years and go from there. This was a rough offseason to take over a team like this as there weren't many realistic moves to be made to improve the major league roster.

    gunnarthor

    gunnarthor 12,610

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

     

    Well Steamer has him projected to pitch to a xFIP of 3.83 next year. Most pitching prospects don't have 32/33% K rates in the minors with a 5.55 K/BB ratio in the PACIFIC COAST LEAGUE. If health wasn't a factor and I had to bet on a pitching prospect to make a successful transition to the majors I'd pick De Leon.

    Keep in mind, dominating any level of baseball over a small sample size isn't that unusual.  He threw 86 innings in AAA.  Tyler Duffey threw 55 dominating innings at the ML level.  There are legit concerns about how his stuff will play at the ML level.

     

    I'm not trying to knock the guy, he's a good pitching prospect and I wish the Twins had him but not at the expense of Dozier.  

    Brock Beauchamp

    Brock Beauchamp 44,052

  • Site Manager

    • Posted

    It's hard to get a read on Forsythe, in my opinion. His last two years compare pretty well to Dozier but he has two good years compared to Dozier's four good years (with one great year mixed in).

     

    Forsythe has also played just one full, healthy season at an acceptable clip for an MLB starter. Dozier has somewhere around 3.75 of those years in comparison (excluding his six weeks of play pre-2013 breakout, when he was still the old, bad Dozier).

     

    On the flip side of that coin, Forsythe is less of a commitment. While Dozier has two guaranteed years, Forsythe has one guaranteed and one option year. While I doubt that matters much to the Dodgers, it is a risk-mitigating factor that counts for something.

    Dantes929

    Dantes929 4,640

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    Not sure why you'd say that, unless you are primarily looking at Forsythe's stats from 3+ years ago.  He's got 7.6 bWAR and 6.8 fWAR over the last 2 seasons, I think we would be thrilled with that production from Polanco.  If anything, Polanco is probably Forsythe-lite until he adds a little power to his game (which could certainly happen over the next few years), or shows a greater defensive aptitude like handling SS.

    Just looked at their major league stats.    Forsythe career .255 avg .721 OPS.  Polanco .284 avg.  .769 OPS and his splits are way better from the right side which is what the Dodgers are looking for.  I looked closer and besides the obvious small sample size for Polanco, Forsythe has done better the last two years as you pointed out.  

    gunnarthor

    gunnarthor 12,610

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

     

    Forsythe has 2 pretty similar years, I'm not sure there's a "career year" standout in there.  There's nothing in there boosting his numbers for those 2 years like Dozier's recent run.  He's also not a year older, he's ~4 months older.

    According to fangraphs, Forsythe's walk rate went down slightly (1%) and his strike outs went up more (4%, closer to his career norms).  His babip was about the same.  And he played in fewer games.  I dunno, I think last year is probably more indicative of what you should expect from him.  If I'm the Dodgers I'd rather have Dozier but I probably wouldn't pay the Twins price for Dozier if I can get Forsythe for De Leon.

    chpettit19

    chpettit19 23,687

  • Community Moderator

    • Posted

     

    There's also a chance De Leon stays healthy and develops a quality breaking pitch. Adding that third pitch basically means that becomes a top of the rotation guy. Basically, the only risk to De Leon is his shoulder. If he stays healthy he's got a really high floor even without that third pitch. 

     

    There's also zero chance of Dozier helping us solve our pitching problem if we don't trade him. 

     

    You can't say there's a chance he develops a quality breaking pitch and follow it with the only risk being his shoulder. There's a clear risk that a 24 year old who hasn't developed a 3rd pitch yet (that's the way I'm reading your post) never develops a 3rd pitch and 2 pitch starters do not have "really high floors." It's been mentioned a lot that most evaluators see his ceiling as a number 3 starter. That's not a really high ceiling let alone a really high floor.

    Otto von Ballpark

    Otto von Ballpark 20,382

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

     

    Forsythe has also played just one full, healthy season at an acceptable clip for an MLB starter.

    Forsythe missed a month last year, but he had 567 PA.  I think it's crazy to cast that aside as "not a full season" unless there are some exceptional circumstances at play, but maybe I'm alone in that.

     

    He still trails Dozier in consecutive starter seasons (4 to 2) which is factor, but I don't know if it's fair to discount him any further on those grounds.

    Brock Beauchamp

    Brock Beauchamp 44,052

  • Site Manager

    • Posted

     

    Forsythe missed a month last year, but he had 567 PA.  I think it's crazy to cast that aside as "not a full season" unless there are some exceptional circumstances at play, but maybe I'm alone in that.

     

    He still trails Dozier in consecutive starter seasons (4 to 2) which is factor, but I don't know if it's fair to discount him any further on those grounds.

    In my post, that's why I offset my statement by saying Forsythe had two good seasons under his belt. One good full season, one good 3/4 season.

     

    But he only played in 127 games in 2016. That's good when you adjust for his WAR value but bad when you consider he's been in the league since 2011 and 127 games is his second-highest game total.

    Otto von Ballpark

    Otto von Ballpark 20,382

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    In my post, that's why I offset my statement by saying Forsythe had two good seasons under his belt. One good full season, one good 3/4 season.

     

    But he only played in 127 games in 2016. That's good when you adjust for his WAR value but bad when you consider he's been in the league since 2011 and 127 games is his second-highest game total.

    But without examining why, there isn't any meaningful conclusion you can draw from those games played numbers. He was a utility player most of that time. Since he became a full timer, he missed a solid month in the middle of 2 years. Does that mean he's significantly more likely than another player to miss time going forward? I don't really think so, unless you know something special about the nature of that 30 day absence.

    Brock Beauchamp

    Brock Beauchamp 44,052

  • Site Manager

    • Posted

     

    But without examining why, there isn't any meaningful conclusion you can draw from those games played numbers. He was a utility player most of that time. Since he became a full timer, he missed a solid month in the middle of 2 years. Does that mean he's significantly more likely than another player to miss time going forward? I don't really think so, unless you know something special about the nature of that 30 day absence.

    It's more in comparison to Dozier, who has been a paragon of health for four seasons running.

     

    Forsythe simply doesn't have the track record to match that. That doesn't mean he's an injury risk so much it as it means Dozier isn't an injury risk (at least to the point any player isn't an injury risk).

     

    At its core, it's the same knock I had against De Leon. While I can't call him an injury risk because he hasn't pitched more than 140 innings in a season, it's a small knock against him that he hasn't done it yet.

    Mike Sixel

    Mike Sixel 54,993

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    David
    1:58 Where do you see Dozier going now/at the deadline? Giants? Cardinals? Nats? Mets? Does any "likely" team have a prospect package that entices the Twins?

     

    Eric A Longenhagen
    1:58 I think Minnesota waits for someone to get hurt so they can leverage that club. Of course, if Dozier starts slow....

    jimmer

    jimmer 9,961

  • Verified Member

    • Posted (edited)

    This is not correct - there is a very high chance that De Leon just isn't very good. That's basically true for almost any pitching prospect. Many posters do not realize how high the failure rates are for performance reasons, not just injury.

    most posters DO realize these things, but they also realize there are only so many ways to get quality pitching. Our draft and development has failed forever, and we wont sign top notch starters (cause, again, price too high except in the case of FA, price is too high in actual money as opposed to a player). So we have to take chances on trading for young pitchers. Especially ones as well regarded as De Leon. If we always on how bad they COULD be and that stops us from trading for them, then we really restrict our ability to improve our rotation. As if we werent already hampered enough by what our team will spend. Edited by jimmer
    jimmer

    jimmer 9,961

  • Verified Member

    • Posted (edited)

    Dave Cameron of FanGraphs has now published a piece that counters the "Forsythe is basically Dozier" article by Zimmerman.

     

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-dodgers-decision-to-be-intentionally-inefficient/

    it was Jeff Sullivan who wrote the first piece, not Zimmerman

     

    And in Dave's piece, he said, as he said before, that De Leon is an overpay for Forsythe.

    Edited by jimmer
    mikelink45

    mikelink45 17,661

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    Disappointment is the only word I can apply.  Nothing against Dozier although I still fear his next slump.  And nothing for De Leon - I know nothing about him, except what I read in the TD posts.  What I wanted to see was the FO making some things happen.  So far nothing that gets me excited for the 2017 season or the next from FO change.  I am still waiting and hoping. 

    Doomtints

    Doomtints 2,816

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    This is not correct - there is a very high chance that De Leon just isn't very good. That's basically true for almost any pitching prospect. Many posters do not realize how high the failure rates are for performance reasons, not just injury.

     

    Ah, the Terry Ryan method.  Any choice may fail so just make no choices.



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