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The Twins have payroll limitations, starting pitching needs, and a logjam at second base. With Jorge Polanco's proximity to free agency limiting his trade value somewhat, trading one of Brooks Lee or Edouard Julien could be something the front office will consider before Opening Day. Each player has plenty of arguments for and against trading them.
Keeping Brooks Lee
The Twins were fortunate that Lee fell to them at 8th overall in the 2022 draft. Before Walker Jenkins, Lee was the undisputed top prospect in the system, and is still a top-20 global prospect by many rankings.
Lee is a versatile and well-rounded prospect who is likely to become at least a solid everyday MLB player. He’s also near-MLB-ready, after making it to Triple A in 2023 and should be a contributor at some point in 2024. With such a well-regarded prospect who isn’t far from making an MLB impact, it’s hard to blame anyone who wants to hold onto Lee and let his career play out in a Twins uniform.
Trading Brooks Lee
For a player with such a high floor. Lee lacks elite tools that jump off the page. That’s not to say that he can’t have an incredible baseball career, but many would argue that he lacks the ceiling of becoming an elite MLB player. There’s nothing wrong with a solid all-around regular, but if another team sees Lee’s ceiling as higher than the Twins front office thinks it is, they may look to cash in.
Lee also doesn’t have a track record of success at the MLB level. After dominating Double A for most of 2023, he was promoted to St. Paul, where he posted a .732 OPS. He also struggled against left-handed pitching for much of 2023, and if that trend continues, it might downgrade his ceiling a bit. Lee is still a fantastic prospect and one worth betting on, but there is a world where cashing in on his current value pays off, if it brings in a legitimate rotation piece and clears up the logjam at second base.
Keeping Edouard Julien
Julien’s elite eye at the plate and ability to crush mistakes resulted in a .263/.381/.459 slash line in his rookie season, 36 percent better than a league-average hitter. He slumped in August, but was a key contributor at the top of the Twins lineup through October, when he hit his first postseason home run. Julien looks like he can be one of the best leadoff hitters in all of baseball, and he’s under team control through 2029.
The main complaint against Edouard Julien is his defense, which was a significant problem when he debuted. He did improve as the season went on, even while moving to first base occasionally. He finished with -3 Outs Above Average at second base. If this sounds unmanageable, consider that Jorge Polanco had an identical mark in, and measures like Universal Zone Rating also have the two very close. Julien may not be the butcher in the field many consider him to be.
Trading Edouard Julien
Julien has been shielded from left-handed pitching for good reason. In 48 plate appearances against southpaws, he owns a .447 OPS in his young career. His walk rate of 17.2% against right-handed pitching drops to 4.2% against lefties. He may improve as he matures, but if he doesn’t, he'll go from stud leadoff man to needing to be platooned. This isn’t unmanageable, since he’d still be able to play almost every day, but it will tighten the roster if the Twins also plan to platoon Alex Kirilloff and Matt Wallner, assuming all three remain on the roster.
There’s also the Luis Arraez concern, as the bar to clear offensively becomes higher if Julien moves to first base. We can hope he’s made strides at second and will continue to do so, but if his defense becomes untenable, he only has first base and designated hitter on which to fall back. His rookie season output would slot in just fine at either spot, but his overall value would take a hit, and the Twins could look to capitalize on it before that value drop-off happens.
Prospects who haven’t debuted often get credit for what they may become. While pedigree is a worthwhile consideration, there’s little substitute for actual performance at the MLB level. The Twins have to weigh the performance of Julien in MLB against what they think Lee will be able to do when he makes his debut. For two players with such different styles, it’s a difficult task.
Can Lee approach the value provided by Julien’s offense alone? If not, how good must he be in other aspects of the game to bridge the gap? These are the questions the Twins would face if they dip into their infield logjam to acquire a high-end starting pitcher in trade. There may be other pieces they could move to acquire a significant addition to the rotation, but choosing between Lee and Julien is the most obvious.
Should the Twins prefer to trade Brooks Lee for pitching, or Edouard Julien? Should they be open to trading either player this winter? Let us know below!
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