I was on a radio show on 1390 The Fan in St. Cloud yesterday, and the first question I was asked about the Twins offseason was if I thought the team would attempt to acquire an ace in the offseason.
It is a very fair question. As we watched the playoffs unfold this year, there were aces all over. The New York Mets started four young pitchers who topped 95 with their fastball and have really good secondary pitches. The Royals added Johnny Cueto at the trade deadline. The Blue Jays added David Price at the deadline. The Astros had Dallas Kuechel. The Dodgers had Clayton Kershaw and Zach Greinke.
The Minnesota Twins have some depth at starting pitcher, and they made huge improvements as a group in 2015. For the first time in several years, they did not finish last in starters ERA.
The last two offseasons, Terry Ryan has spent $100 million combined for Ricky Nolasco and Ervin Santana. Neither would fit the category of ace, but before signing with the Twins, they both had been solid, inning- eating pitchers for an extended period of time. Phil Hughes pitched like an Ace in 2014, but he came back down to earth in 2015. Tommy Milone won’t fit anyone’s definition of an ace, but he pitched well much of 2015. Kyle Gibson isn’t a big strikeout pitcher, but he topped 180 innings and was the Twins top pitcher in 2015. Tyler Duffey pitched like an ace down the stretch. Trevor May showed at times in the first half that he can be a solid MLB starter. He is capable of missing bats. And, we all look forward to the day when JO Berrios is in the rotation and what he could become.
In the Twins Daily Offseason GM Handbook, Terry Ryan was asked how he would define an Ace.
“We have a definition of an ace. It’d be quality innings, it’d be a guy that can get you a win when you need it, it would be a guy that’s got pitchability, it’d be a guy that gets into the seventh or eighth more often than not, those types of things. That’s an ace. And it doesn’t necessarily have to be a guy that throws 96. Maddux was an ace for a long time, he didn’t throw 96, and he did all those things I just mentioned.”
As I wrote last month, velocity certainly doesn’t hurt but it isn’t a requirement for an Ace. Ryan continued, “Radke was our ace for a long time, and people argue that he wasn’t a No. 1. OK, that’s a good response. But he also pounded out 230 innings every year for a decade. He might not be the guy you want going up against some of these bigshots, but he also was the type of guy that you feel pretty good about taking the mound.”
Over the course of his 12 seasons with the Twins, Radke quietly put up 45.6 bWAR. In the Twins 55 year history, only five Twins players have accumulated a higher bWAR. Those players are Rod Carew (63.7), Harmon Killebrew (53.7), Kirby Puckett (50.9), Bert Blyleven (49.3), and Joe Mauer (47.8). The next pitchers in line include Johan Santana (35.5 in 8 seasons), Jim Kaat (31.7 in 13 seasons) and Frank Viola (27.2 in 8 seasons).
Think back to the Twins World Series teams of the past. The 1965 team had Jim Kaat, Camilo Pascual and Mudcat Grant. The 1987 team was led by Frank Viola and Bert Blyleven. The 1991 team had Jack Morris, Kevin Tapani and Scott Erickson.
So, let’s get back to the 2015-2016 offseason and the original question. Do the Twins need an ace to get to the next step, to get to the playoffs and compete for another World Series title? The obvious answer is that it certainly wouldn’t hurt.
None of the seven starters that will be competing for spots in the 2016 starting rotation are going to sit at 94+ mph. Trevor May averaged 93.2 mph on his fastball in 2015, but that was heightened by his time in the bullpen when he regularly hit 95 mph. Mike Pelfrey’s average fastball was 93.0 mph, but he is now a free agent and unlikely to return. Ervin Santana was next at 92.5. Then Kyle Gibson at 92.0 mph. Phil Hughes’ velocity dropped to 90.7 in 2015. Tommy Milone’s average fastball was just 87.6.
However, Phil Hughes topped 200 innings in 2014. He had pitched 190 innings one other time in his career. Ervin Santana pitched more than 200 innings five times in his career, and reached 196 innings one other time. Ricky Nolasco went past 200 innings twice and was over 185 innings three other times. Tyler Duffey threw 196 innings between the big leagues and minor leagues in 2015. He’s got the size and strength to be the type of pitcher who can get to 200 innings consistently.
Could the Twins acquire an ace this offseason?
Could they acquire one in a trade? The Twins certainly have the prospects required to acquire pretty much any starting pitcher that might be available. This week, Billy Beane said that he didn’t think that there was much likelihood that he would trade Sonny Gray. However, as Nick wrote last month, acquiring Gray (or any ace-type pitcher) will take a combination of players such as Max Kepler and JO Berrios.
Is it possible that the Twins could sign an ace this offseason?
Image courtesy of John E. Sokolowski, USA Today
David Price is the top pitcher on the trade market. In the Twins Daily Offseason Handbook, we projected that Price will sign a bigger contract that Max Scherzer’s seven year, $210 million deal signed last year. It’s hard to imagine the Twins signing a pitcher for $30 million a year over more than half a decade.
So then there is the second tier. Names in this group include Johnny Cueto, Zach Greinke and Jordan Zimmerman. There is a good chance that these three pitchers will get at least $25 million per season for at least five seasons.
Those four pitchers are the aces in the group. Along with committing $150 million or more, these players would cost the Twins their first-round draft pick in 2016, the 17th overall pick. If you want, you can add Jeff Samardzija to the group, but his 6.29 ERA in the 2nd half exemplifies the inconsistency that has marked his career.
The next group includes guys like Mike Leake, Wei-Yin Chen, Scott Kazmir and Brett Anderson. These guys are $13-15 million guys, and likely would also cost the first round pick.
Now, many will tell you that there isn’t a salary cap in baseball. That is true. However, businesses (which is what MLB teams are) do have to spend appropriately to their revenues. Why do I mention that? Because if the Twins are going to make a big splash in free agency with a starting pitcher, they would also need to make some moves to reduce their current payroll.
How can they do that? Well, it’s easy to say they could get rid of Nolasco. However, if they are able to trade him, the Twins will have to still pay a huge chunk of his salary. The team could non-tender Tommy Milone, or they could trade him. However, that’s only $5 million. They could trade Trevor Plouffe, and that would open up about $8 million more. That’s $13 million. Is it possible that the Twins would also be willing to trade someone like Phil Hughes or Ervin Santana to open up another $12-13 million. That would get them to about $25 million. That might be enough to pick up one of the ace-like pitchers.
If you’re looking for my opinion, I would feel comfortable sticking with the Twins current pitching options. Phil Hughes needs to be the 2014 version, and after a frustrating 2015, I think he would put in the work to get back to what he was. Having Ervin Santana for a full season would certainly benefit the team. The hope would be that Kyle Gibson would continue to be more consistent and take another step forward. Obviously it would be great if Tyler Duffey would pitch close to how he pitched down the stretch. At just 25 next season, he could develop into a mainstay in the rotation. Trevor May warrants another opportunity as a starter. He’s still just 26. And, of course, they need to do what is best for JO Berrios as well because he’s got the potential to be a guy you would feel good starting a playoff game for years to come as well.
That rotation may not have the definition of an ace by many accounts. However, I feel good about the potential of Duffey and Berrios becoming long-term, reliable starters. I have a comfort level in Kyle Gibson and Ervin Santana. And, I do think that Hughes will bounce back in 2016. That’s a pretty solid staff, and I would feel comfortable with several of them making playoff starts. And that doesn’t even count Tommy Milone who, at times, was the Twins top starter in 2015 and actually has made playoff starts.
And, though we haven’t discussed it to this point, having an outfield defense that will, at some point, include Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton and Aaron Hicks will help any pitching staff.
Seth Stohs has been blogging about the Minnesota Twins since May 2003. A founder and owner of Twins Daily (including Brewer Fanatic, North Side Baseball), Seth has been a Twins fan for 40 years and has a passion for covering the minor leagues and prospects. #GirlDad
Follow Seth Stohs on Twitter: sethtweets
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