This is Why Byron Buxton is Worth His Contract

18 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

 No. Byron Buxton is not, was not, and never will be worth his contract. 

 

If he averages over a 2 to 3 war over the years, by definition he would be worth the contract.   Some people.  

4 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

But we all k ow that he is close to another 2 for 25 stretch.  He sure gets a lot of kudos for such a part time player.  Twins Daily could do better by being a little more authentic and honest about Buck.  

Kind of like Lewis....

1 minute ago, bean5302 said:

Royce Lewis is a monster. The only legitimate MVP candidate the Twins have seen on their roster since prime Joe Mauer. Lewis' xwOBA would rank 7th in all of MLB. His actual wOBA would rank 5th. Last year, his actual xwOBA would have ranked 4th.

Injuries are the only thing stopping Lewis from being a superstar right now.

Kind of like Buxton early in his career....

4 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

Another Buxton gloating, and over- hyped and excessively dramatized story.  I'm sorry for him that he's been injured so much.  We never got to see him full time.  We will never know him in that way because his biggest statistic in 9 years is games missed.  Yes he's oʻn a hot streak right now.  It's about time!  But we all k ow that he is close to another 2 for 25 stretch that will highlight his ability to flail away at pitches low and away.  He sure gets a lot of kudos for such a part time player.  Twins Daily could do better by being a little more authentic and honest about Buck.  

Amen.  There seems to be two camps with Buxton:

1) The camp that wants him to be great so bad they’ll do anything to reinforce the claim.

2) Those who just look at the numbers and the history and take it for what it is.

it’s refreshing to see people who reside in the second camp.  We don’t benefit spinning his achievements (or lack of them).  He’s done this kind of thing his entire career and as we watch his tenth season unfold before our eyes there are certain facts I must confront the “optimist” with at this point:

1) His lifetime OBP is .300

2) His lifetime average is 241

3) He’s compiled more than 76 hits once in a season

4) He’s yet to score 70 runs in a season.

5)  He’s never driven in more than 51 runs in a season

These are all facts and yet the National media, local media and the blogosphere continues to put this guy on a lofty perch based on speculation and tools.  That’s it.

I am just about old enough to remember Dragnet.  Just the facts.

The facts and his history tells me to be careful making bold statements about this guy when he’s going through a hot patch.  He’s facing some of the softest pitching in baseball right now and he was having a dreadful season all the way up until a few weeks ago.

Have we learned nothing?  Sorry, but I’m not buying it and as far as the contact goes whatever.  It’s incentive laden for a reason.  See 1-5 above.

Talk to me in the middle of August and let’s see where he’s at 
 

He’s worth his contract if/when he completes something close to a full season. Simple as that.

His offense has always been overrated, mainly because the insanely hot hot streaks are celebrated as ‘real’ and the insanely horrible streaks are dismissed. Overall, over the course of full seasons, he’ll be an average to slightly above average offensive player (tied solely to his HR rate), with extremely high highs and very low lows…and an excellent player at a premium position.

17 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

Kind of like Lewis....

I wouldn’t say so.  Lewis was a finished product offensively when he came into the league.  Buxton is nowhere near the offensive player Lewis is and Lewis is five and a half years younger.

I’m much more OK with the shiny happy talk about Lewis than I am Buxton.  Buxton to me has had a disappointing career and he’s been constantly praised all the way though 

It would be amazing to see the early version of Buxton.  I hope to see something even close the rest of the season.  But don't forget the June schedule was against some not so great teams. 

Right now different sources have him ranked between 7th and 8th among center fielders in MLB. There are some huge salaries in that list. Considering that it seemed possible that Buxton's career was over last year I choose to view him from a lense removed from his days as a top player/prospect. Looking at him just as he is. He is a damn good player. At this pace you are looking at 460 plate appearances and 3 WAR. According to some each WAR is worth 8mm. That puts his value at 24mm well above his salary. Personally I don't agree 100% with that valuation method because a team bought at that level would cost about 320mm, obviously not in the Twin's budget. You need much cheaper players under team control providing excess value. It does, for me, put into perspective what Byron is providing the team. The big if is if he can keep this up this year and for a few more years to live up to the contract.

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

If you viewed his contract in a vacuum, sure, but since Buxton cannot be the only starting caliber CF on the team, the Twins need to pay a premium for a starting caliber backup CF, who won't be playing CF, Buxton's true cost is higher.

How exactly is it a premium when on average you are receiving $30 million worth of value and only paying $15 million?  You can't have everyone on a rookie contract.   

The hindsight on this comment thread is clairvoyant indeed.

There is no question Buxton has been worth $14M per year. He's been valued at more than double that in a few seasons. But contract value vs. being a true difference-maker for a team over full seasons is another story. Especially considering where he was drafted and how many other team's young stars have made a name for themselves since 2015. Would I have signed him to an extension? Absolutely not. His health issues were an annual thing when we offered the long-term deal. It's money wasted if a player's overall offensive contributions only span parts of every season and are almost exclusively home-run-driven. Career lowlights include mendoza-ish BA with RISP/high-leverage situations, BB's, SB's, BA, OBP, hits, non-HR RBI pace, etc. Anyone looking over his name-redacted career batting line would say "No way this guy is a career 10-year starter AND under a long-term contract".

3 hours ago, wabene said:

At this point Buxton has an OPS of .769 for an OPS+ of 116. It's important to consider the low bar for a good bat in center field. Even with the slow start he is at a good pace this year. Don't want to jinx him, but the plica surgery was apparently as successful as is expected with this procedure. How many games does he play? He sure looks good right now. That contract was a smart deal that just might work out. 

Kind of unrelated...  the 1980's called.  They built a time machine and travelled to 2024.  Their heads exploded when they saw Shortstops had a higher OPS across the league than First Basemen.  Strange times.

Of course, first we had to explain OPS. 😆

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

If you viewed his contract in a vacuum, sure, but since Buxton cannot be the only starting caliber CF on the team, the Twins need to pay a premium for a starting caliber backup CF, who won't be playing CF, Buxton's true cost is higher.

This is a good point that gets muted by the amazing Willi Castro. I'd see about extending the young man. When Buxton is rolling there is always someplace you can put Willi.

Anyone who says Buxton isn’t worth his contract just doesn’t understand how value is calculated and has unrealistic expectations/ideas about such things.

The Twins arbitrary salary limitations and how he fits that is irrelevant.  How he arrives at his final numbers via hot streaks and slumps, and how that impacts actual wins and losses is irrelevant (other players have to participate in that as well).

People also forget he’s a CFer when considering his offensive output.  It’s not a premium offensive position.  He’s been well above average in terms of OPS every year since 2019, except for one when he was right around league average (99 OPS, .731 OPS in 2023).  Those numbers are MLB as a whole, include all MLB positions and are even better when filtering for only CFers.  4 of those seasons were well above .800 with well over .500 slugging.   He’s a very good offensive CFer, slumps included.

Other factors that don’t get measured:  The guy has only grounded into 16 double plays in 10 MLB seasons.  He’s also a great clubhouse guy, a competitor, works his ass off, and gets in zero trouble off the field.

At his baseline, including missed time, he’s easily worth the contract.

Dont care about past performance?  In 2024, baseball savant has him in the 75th percentile of major leaguers in batting run value, 89th in baserunning run value, and 87th in fielding run value.  He’s in the 70th for xslug, 79th in exit velocity, 83rd in bat speed, and 79th in hard hit %.  Defensively, 85th in range, 97th in arm value, 87th in arm strength.  98th in base running.  Obviously, he struggles in the area of chase %, whiff %, K %, and BB%, but when he’s among the elite in nearly every category when it comes to the outcome when he hits the ball, who cares on his contract?  It’s a legitimate gripe if he’s making making twice as much.

For those asking for a premium defensive CFer to carry the team for more prolonged stretches, your expectations aren’t realistic for his contract value.  Also, he basically just did that for the entire month of June with a .352/.390/.704/1.094 slash line over his last 15 games.

What are some people asking for, here?  If he was healthy more often, he would be worth way more.  You can’t expect prime Ken Griffey Jr. on a 7 year $100M contract.

A reference point:  Harrison Bader and Kevin Kiermaier are making $10.5 million this year.  Brandon Nimmo and Staring Marte are making over $20.  Cody Bellinger is making nearly $30M.  Buxton has accumulated 1.4 more WAR than Kiermaier, .4 less than Nimmo (Nimmo has played in 15 more games), 1.0 more than Marte, .1 more than Bader (who is 18 points over his career OPS+ and due for regression offensively), .5 more than Bellinger.

Once you past the controllable years, good luck finding somebody better for cheaper (and willing to play in MN).

Like it or not, this is a good deal, and the Twins aren’t doing better.

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

If you viewed his contract in a vacuum, sure, but since Buxton cannot be the only starting caliber CF on the team, the Twins need to pay a premium for a starting caliber backup CF, who won't be playing CF, Buxton's true cost is higher.

That would be a solid point if the Twins actually paid a premium for a starting caliber backup.  But, they haven’t and they won’t.

12 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Sure. There are 26 roster positions in MLB. Byron Buxton occupies 2 of those roster positions. One for him, and one for the guy you need to back him up in CF. This isn't me being upset with Buxton. It just is what it is. He must have a backup and that takes money and a roster spot. We've seen what happens this year when he doesn't (Margot lost too much speed to cover, but the Twins traded for him to cover CF), and last year when he does (Michael A Taylor) $4.6MM + 2 prospects (a #5 depth starter and what looks like a good reliever). So the Twins are paying an extra $4MM a year for Buxton's backups, plus prospects. So Buxton is basically a 1 roster spot penalty and an extra few million in other players the Twins need to have to back him up. That's a lot more than $15MM / year.

Buxton has averaged 2 WAR per season over his career. Teams try to buy WAR at $6MM per win in free agency, but injuries and underperformers drop the cost per win down to about $8MM. Buxton is worth, on average $16MM per year in terms of production himself since his contract was signed (and historically over his entire career). That ignores the truth, though. Teams don't give long contracts to 2 WAR players. They also don't try to buy them at $8MM/WAR. In any case, he has 2 seasons in 10 where he produced 4 wins, and he has never, in his entire career, posted more than 4.5 fWAR in a season (your outlandish $30MM clip figure). Last year, Buxton produced 0.6 fWAR (scrub level). This year, Buxton is a30 and producing at a 3 WARish clip on pace for the second season in his career over 92 games. Buxton's legitimate ceiling is probably 3 WAR at this point.

Buxton is in decline. He is not going to get better. He no longer has elite defense. He is not going to get healthier in his 30s than he was in his 20s. The Twins paid dramatically over market rate for a declining Byron Buxton.

WAR wise, he is on track for another 3+ WAR year.  3rd year in the last 4 of 3+ WAR.  Not exactly someone in decline.  Torii Hunter had 27.3 WAR in his age 31 to 37 years.  Am I expecting that,  not especially,  could he play 130 games the next 3-4 years and average 3.5 WAR across those 3-4 years, absolutely.     His speed is not dropping considerably.  When that does, maybe you can say he is in decline.  Even still could be a great player.  Last I checked you always need a 4th outfielder.  The fact our 4th outfielder gets more play isn't actually and issue,  you may need to pay a little more for a little better quality back up,  but ultimately the games Buxton does play for you, is worth the games he is on the shelf.  Once he starts a hot streak,  he tends to stay on it for a while,  I think in a couple weeks month or two,  your take on Buxton could look pretty silly,  until his next injury of course, LOL.   In either case I will continue to enjoy when he is a true asset to the team.  

I will never doubt his talent or humility, however I still say if he stays healthy and has a strong year it might be best trade him while the value is up.  They already have martin and Castro who can cover cf til Rodriguez is ready possibly by next seasons end.   It also makes a lewis extension easier

2 minutes ago, Jim wyllie said:

I will never doubt his talent or humility, however I still say if he stays healthy and has a strong year it might be best trade him while the value is up.  They already have martin and Castro who can cover cf til Rodriguez is ready possibly by next seasons end.   It also makes a lewis extension easier

Lewis is not getting an extension, neither Martin or Castro can field within 40 percent of Buxton/

Rodriguez, yeah right, get real.

very interesting discussion...pro and con. When mentioning Lewis...gotta be noted that he is in a pretty deep slump at the moment. His BA once in the high .300's is now in the middle to just a tad better .250's. Quite a drop. It happens. I'm happy to ride Buck when he's hot. He will cool off, he always does. But he is a gamer. I'd love to see him finish this season without another trip to the IL. A healthy Buck and a return to form Lewis will propel these guys into post season again.

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

The Twins paid for Manuel Margot to back up Buxton, though. Castro can't make the point moot because Margot is already on the roster.

He can next year. Martin will be there too and I think we have something there too.

Buxton is the same as Taylor?
Taylor's 2024 WAR is .1
Buxton's 2024 WAR is 1.6
(Fangraphs WAR, that is)
WAR accounts for playing time, defense, strikeouts, etc. It's not perfect, but it's the best comprehensive measure of contributions I know of. Taylor's basically a replacement level player. That's worthwhile. But Buxton's been much, much better this year.