A Closer Look at the 2015 Twins

It's amazing how often that schill insult gets thrown around at anyone who dares take a positive outlook on the future of the Twins organization.  It comes from the crowds that don't pay attention to the organization as a whole, and simply watch the product at the major league level.  They look at Wins and losses, ERA, and RBI as their key indicators for how good a player is performing, and often times don't understand the role advanced metrics play in evaluation and prediction.  Then they play the "How, as a fan, can you not be outraged by this horrible team" card, and follow it up with "Prospects are just prospects until they've proven something in the majors" as if that isn't a concept that you're aware of. 

 

Kudos to you for clarifying and doubling down on your statement.

Thanks for your last two articles. We usually have to wait until the off-season to get to the "wait until next year" phase, but as you've explained, we can start seeing glimpses of next season right now. Next year will not be without some growing pains, but it should be fun to see them play.

My oldest son made this point yesterday when talking about the Twins. To paraphrase, we have become satisfied with the level of play. We are satisfied to have a SS in CF, a utility guy playing short, someone in left we picked up, a third baseman who is at best mildly ordinary, and collectively possibly the worst SP staff in the majors, a catcher who cannot throw out runners. I excused Dozier because he can field with the best, and Arcia because he is 23 and has potential where he is. So does Santanna, but not out there, with us not having a SS. His point, and I agree is this team has lost 90 games 3 (4) years in a row. And this team as it is now fielded will continue to lose. Maybe the question should be, IS there only one spot open? Or SHOULD there only be one spot open. In theory, if you lose 90 for four years in a row, there should be 25 spots open!

Here's my plan:

1. Sign Lester (back up is Shields) - you need a Ace to make Hughes a very good 2 and Gibson a good 3. Besides being better than the #6 pitcher, an Ace will greatly reduce the load on the bullpen.

2. Sign a cheap RH LF to platoon with Shafer (Ideal would be Rios but probably too expensive).

3. At trade deadline, if you can't sign Hughes to an extension, then try to trade him for a top ten prospect (like the Cubs did with Samardzija).

4. Have Milone and the Meyer/May (whoever doesn't win #5 spot) in AAA ready to fill in.

5. Have Hicks, Sano, Buxton earn their way onto the team next year (July - September).

Basically, if you do not accept Hicks as an outfielder and don't think Buxton should be counted on then there are two spots to fill. Plouffe was 10th in war this season so while it is fair to not be satisfied it I also obvious he is not the problem. If you think Escbar is a good shortstop then you still put Santana in the outfield for his arm and speed and then you are left with one position to fill. Again, fans that think more changes need to be made don't seem to accept or believe the part about the Twins scoring the 6th most in baseball. Actually, I guess if the don't believe it, technically they would be correct because the Twins are now 5TH!!! The Twins have the worst rotation so really the problems start and end with the pitching and any ideas of blowing up the rest of the team are not founded in logic at all. I have never been a proponent of going big in free agency but this year I do like the idea of going big on one starter for all the reasons stated by Sarasota. If they don't, I do believe May has the stuff to be good and so does Gibson and Nolasco should rebound to at least keep his ERA under 5. The future really isn't bleak unless by future you mean the rest of September. Some guys simply need to step up.

I do believe we have a good young core of players. They need time to play, and most of them are already proving themselves. Yes pitching is a concern. Nolasco had an off year, but you cannot bail on him after one year. Meyer and May need a chance to play to prove they can complete. You can't keep bringing more pitchers in to block them.

This is rebuilding. It's taken longer then any of us like, but I think we're finally close.

 

Ohh and ignore anything Common Man says. I may be in the minority but I can't even listen to his show. He drives me nuts.

My oldest son made this point yesterday when talking about the Twins. To paraphrase, we have become satisfied with the level of play. 

 

This reminds me of the question I asked last week:  "Do we even recognize good baseball any more?"

 

Have we simply watched so many years of dismal ball that we are willing to lap up any signs of improvement?

 

The Twins may have been 5th in runs scored in August but their record was still 11-18 (worse than their season average if I am doing my math correctly)  .... and it wasn't all due to pitching.  The Twins were able to pad that run total by beating up on AAAA pitchers but when it came to facing ML average or better pitchers, it often seemed like they were stymied.

 

I understand the argument that there aren't many roster spots available to fill and I'm willing to see how these players develop but I'm not sure how much more palatable that is going to make 2015.  I just don't see the pitching as being there.  The defense will continue to be spotty.  And the hitting will be unpredictable.

 

It isn't a very pleasant picture when we come to year 5 of the debacle.

I'm probably just reiterating what others have said above, but I really think that the problem with a lot of talk shows and casual fans is the application of football/basketball strategy and economics to baseball.  They're the most visible sports news due to ESPN's television contracts with those leagues and the ensuing coverage that the network gives to them.  People are used to a path to success based on "acquire one superstar -> profit."  Baseball doesn't work like that, but it doesn't prevent radio talk shows or casual fans from believing that it does.

 

I agree with a lot of the posters that there is some degree of complacency with the level of play right now.  We focus in on a few gleaming signs of hope to distract us from the whirling pit of despair the last few years have been.  I can't fault anyone for taking hope in a few young players and good signings (Hughes/Suzuki) because a rational fan knows that the Twins can't solve all of their problems with FA acquisitions.

 

I think that Nick is very articulate in these articles.  He has good logic and isn't throwing around insults or accusations, something that we can't say for all radio talk shows.  I also think Nick is close to the truth, and fans get upset about it.  Fans want to hope that there is a magic bullet to solve all the problems, and when faced with the reality that there is no magic solution, they're angry.

I'm not sold on Oswaldo Arcia and I think the Twins could do better in right field.  He's hitting .220/.288/.429 with 101 strikeouts in only 81 games... and not to mention the bad defense.  I know he's young, and I know he's conquered AAA already, but he needs to step back and collect himself because I'm not impressed with how he's played.

 

I'm also not sold on Trevor May being part of the rotation immediately in 2015, leaving Nolasco, Hughes, Gibson, and... Mike Pelfrey?

 

I guess what I'm saying is that I disagree with the premise that the Twins don't need to make any major moves in the offseason.

I'm not sold on Oswaldo Arcia and I think the Twins could do better in right field.  He's hitting .220/.288/.429 with 101 strikeouts in only 81 games... and not to mention the bad defense.  I know he's young, and I know he's conquered AAA already, but he needs to step back and collect himself because I'm not impressed with how he's played.

 

I'm also not sold on Trevor May being part of the rotation immediately in 2015, leaving Nolasco, Hughes, Gibson, and... Mike Pelfrey?

 

I guess what I'm saying is that I disagree with the premise that the Twins don't need to make any major moves in the offseason.

Milone really shouldn't be discounted so much since he does have a pretty good AL history so far. One big contract for a guy like Lester or Shields would go a long way. Its not an easy fix since you aren't comfortable that the talent is ready but don't want to block them either. This year we went with more youth on offense and I would be fine with doing the same on the pitching side even if it means taking a few more lumps but I understand that I have more patience than most.

 

The Twins may have been 5th in runs scored in August but their record was still 11-18 (worse than their season average if I am doing my math correctly)  .... and it wasn't all due to pitching.  The Twins were able to pad that run total by beating up on AAAA pitchers but when it came to facing ML average or better pitchers, it often seemed like they were stymied.

 

I understand the argument that there aren't many roster spots available to fill and I'm willing to see how these players develop but I'm not sure how much more palatable that is going to make 2015.  I just don't see the pitching as being there.  The defense will continue to be spotty.  And the hitting will be unpredictable.

 

It isn't a very pleasant picture when we come to year 5 of the debacle.

Hitting is always unpredictable. Average or better pitching will often stymie anyone's hitting. If anyone was average for us this year it was Gibson but look how awesome he was half the time and poor the other half. You can't discount the Twins at #5 because of who they beat up on. Not only do other teams beat up on those pitchers as well our offense never got to face the worst rotation in baseball. Our offense showed marked improvement in better at bats but they are young so I am hoping for more improvement, particularly from Arcia. It may not be all pitching but it is mostly about that.

I get it, but Arcia has that Pierzynski/Hunter/Mientkiewicz competitive quality that this team hasn't seen since, well, Pierzynski Hunter or Mientkiewicz. (With the exception that Arcia doesn't seem to have any of the negative personal aspects that those three did to varying degrees.)

 

I personally hope the Twins stick with Arcia. I can live with his erratic play in the field.

 

I like him too, but his play has been awful and not deserving of a major league spot.  He hasn't even shown any improvement since last year.

 

While we're on the subject of outfielders, the Twins are still lacking a left fielder for 2015 as well.

This reminds me of the question I asked last week:  "Do we even recognize good baseball any more?"

 

Have we simply watched so many years of dismal ball that we are willing to lap up any signs of improvement?

 

The Twins may have been 5th in runs scored in August but their record was still 11-18 (worse than their season average if I am doing my math correctly)  .... and it wasn't all due to pitching.  The Twins were able to pad that run total by beating up on AAAA pitchers but when it came to facing ML average or better pitchers, it often seemed like they were stymied.

 

I understand the argument that there aren't many roster spots available to fill and I'm willing to see how these players develop but I'm not sure how much more palatable that is going to make 2015.  I just don't see the pitching as being there.  The defense will continue to be spotty.  And the hitting will be unpredictable.

 

It isn't a very pleasant picture when we come to year 5 of the debacle.

 

The answer to your question from last week is that none of us are confused about the difference between bad baseball and good baseball. Furthermore, almost no one is satisfied with the quality of today's baseball at Target Field. 

 

A handful of us ARE satisfied with the level of progress being made. So perhaps the young man isn't properly distinguishing the difference between being satisfied with the progress versus being satisfied with the level of play.

I haven't read any of these comments on this article, but the general response from the other one was irrational. I am not insulting anyone. Want to make that clear.

 

There isn't a whole lot to be done with this roster, at least not until we see it in full for awhile next year. People seem to jump on this "same roster, same result" train and it is just irrational. Young players can get better. Period. There's some serious youth on the Twins roster right now and some of those young players are not the ones that we expected to be there right now. I have always liked Danny Santana, but this was nowhere near expected. I have always liked Kennys Vargas, but this was nowhere near expected. Sano and Buxton are going to happen. To worry otherwise is to despair over nothing right now. Plouffe has stabled as an average player overall. Escobar is good. Arcia and Pinto are going to hit (though Arcia is clearly going to need some shift in approach). And there's still Mauer and Dozier.

Hughes is (as predicted) good. Gibson has improved a lot. There is good reason to think that May will as well. Let's see about Nolasco, though, there has to be a breaking point next year with this guy (I was only ok with his signing AFTER Hughes was acquired for so cheapish). Meyer needs to be in the rotation out of ST. Think about a rotation of Hughes-Gibson-Nolasco-May-Meyer with Milone as a sixth option for a second. The sixth option is a legitimate 4-5 starter . . . for the first time in years for this team!

I am a prospect nerd so I am biased towards development, but it still is true that the youth movement is arriving and the Twins need to stick with it right now.



 

So on offense we have youngsters: Arcia, Santana, Hicks, Pinto, Vargas, Escobar, and vets Dozier, Plouffe, Suzuki, and Mauer.  Parmelee, Nunez and Schaefer on the bench.  I see the basics of a solid lineup an with Sano and Buxton ready around the Allstar break and Walker and Polanco by the end of the season we will have options

 

The bullpen is solid as is but there are a few pitchers on the way up that throw real hard.  so were good there. 

 

The rotation has the usual:  Hughes, Gibson, Nolasco then Millone, May, Meyer, Pino, Pelfry and eventually Berrios.  I don't know if any of the other starting pitchers will make the climb and be ready next year so the Twins may want to add a AAAA starter just in case.  We used 11 starters this year. 

 

So as I see it we need a AAAA starter for depth and maybe a better back up C and maybe a LF if Hicks and or Schaefer cant cut it for now. 

And the bullpen could use serious upgrades as well.

 

The way I would plan with Buxton and Sano is to plan on nothing next year, but to pretty much avoid a long commitment at those positions.

 

From August 31, 2014 to April 1, 2015 I would anticipate 2 different hitters (not counting Pinto for Fryer) and 5 different pitchers at a minimum.

 

Well said regarding Buxton and Sano. I'd leave Santana, Plouffe, and Escobar in the lineup until those two supplant them and Santana pushes Escobar out. And it's not illogical to think that both of them would be ready to contribute some time in 2015. In fact it might be illogical to think they wouldn't.

 

So, they have two massive holes: an above-average corner OF and a starter that projects to be as good as we thought Hughes was going to be, or better. I'd love it if they'd shop for a young catcher too. The bullpen will get overhauled and is a minor concern because we have good options there.