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We can give Donaldson somewhat of a pass in 2020. Sure, he was hurt again, and his gargantuan calves didn’t hold up over what was a shortened season. There were comments made that pregame preparation was hardly ideal, and given the circumstances, that’s more than fair to believe. When he did play, 28 games to be exact, an .842 OPS was produced. While that’s not superstar level, it’s well above average and the 134 OPS+ reflects that mark as well.
Fast forward to 2021 and Minnesota has a third basemen posting a .752 OPS across 37 games, and his OPS+ sits at just 115. Take a look at the slash lines year over year though. A season ago Donaldson batted just .222 but posted a strong .373 OBP and a .469 SLG. This year he’s hitting .236, but the OBP is all the way down to .338 and the SLG sits at just .415. If you need an indicator that batting average is overrated, well, there you go.
At any rate, what’s going on? The short answer is a lot.
From a process perspective, Donaldson is actually improved when it comes to plate discipline. His 26.9% chase rate is basically in line with his career mark, and it’s resulted in a strong 22/21 K/BB. His CSW%, which is a combination of called and swinging strikes, sits at a career low 22.3%. Contact, both in the zone and as a whole, are also way up. So, to summarize the process, we’re in a good place.
Now, how about the results?
Donaldson has long been a hitting savant, and because of it, a banger in the box when the bat meets the ball. That’s still happening for the most part. His 15.2% barrel rate is a career best, and the 35.2% hard hit rate is above the mark posted a season ago. He’s dropped his ground ball rate (good) and increased his line drive rate (also good).
Why in the world aren’t the results better?
There’s a couple of reasons, and as silly as it is, some of it comes down to bad luck. Donaldson owns a miniscule .240 BABIP, which is just four points higher than his average. Not all balls put in play are equal, and obviously expecting this man to be a burner on the basepaths is a losing strategy. What the expected outcomes are, however, tells a much different story.
Fangraphs has the Bringer of Rain’s expected batting average at .282, with an expected SLG of .534, and an xWOBA of .385. Expected outcomes are derived from the assessment of launch angle and exit velocities. In other words, the outcomes that inputs should create.
Some of that could be blamed on the baseball. Prior to the season MLB announced that it would change the playing object with an intention of a deadening effect. An article from The Athletic in early April talked about the drag coefficient on this baseball. Is livelier off the bat, but flight parameters are muted. For a power guy like Donaldson, that should create a net negative effect when it comes to carry over the wall. It explains a rise in barrel percentage, but helps really only on line drives.
Another amount of it could be blamed on bad luck and a small sample size. Donaldson’s radial and launch angle charts both illustrate the previously discussed outputs. We’re still just dealing with a 37-game sample, 123 at bats in total, and what equates to 22% of a full season. So, if there’s good news here, it’s the positive normalization should be coming.
Rocco Baldelli has seen his lineup be rejuvenated by the emergence of both Miguel Sano and Mitch Garver’s return to form. Next could be Donaldson, and for a guy that Minnesota is paying nearly $100 million to anchor the offense, it couldn’t be more necessary.
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