Article: Twins and Pelfrey Agree to Deal

[stringer bell]

The Twins have acquired some off-the-chart bombs-Nishioka, Marquis, and (on last year) Worley. Some of that is probably their fault, but some of it is really rotten luck. I thought the club got lucky over and over late in the last decade (Span and a half season of Lexi for two position player examples) and they've seemed to be snakebit since. If there is anything to things evening out, they should get far above expected performance from someone.

[tobi0040]

ERA, W-L Thielbar was the best reliever, too, right?

 

Check out his FIP, K%, WAR.

Check out his BABIP and stranded% to figure out why the bloated ERA and WHIP.

 

And I like Pelfrey about as much as Ervin Santana for the $ in this team.

 

We could point to a number of stats to make a point.But let's not overthink this. The team with the most runs per game wins. Last year Deduno gave up 3.83 per 9 innings. Pelfrey gave up 5.19. Deduno has the edge 4.06 to 4.48 for their careers. Tht point is Dedeno, Meyer, and probably Gibson can put up similar or better numbers next year for 400k and getting experience for the future.

[Joe A. Preusser]

So each and every pitcher will best there career averages for ERA,except Hughes who has a 4.53 career ERA,Hope you right

 

Either of our predictions are pretty likely. The SPers will be a whole lot better this coming year. If the BP holds steady teams will have a bunch of trouble scoring runs off us in 2014.

 

I'll go a step further. If Arcia does well, Hicks puts it together, Plouffe figures it out and is steady, Dozier is the "new Dozier" and Pinto hits like we all hope he can over a season....

 

The Twins will win the Central. Write it down, I said it first.

[stringer bell]

I want to see a rotation sometime next year with May, Meyer, Gibson, Pelfrey and Hughes. 6'5", 6'9", 6'6", 6'7", and 6'5". Like some wag said about a basketball team "they'll look impressive walking through airports".

[cmathewson]

Coming off TJS in record time, pitching horribly in the first half before putting together a mediocre 2-3 month stretch... Really, you don't think he'll be any better than he was last season?

 

As I said, he should be better if you just factor in the second year after TJ surgery. On the other hand, he went from 20 to 152 innings in one season, with TJ in between. So he'll probably have a longish dead arm period. I think he'll be better when his arm is lively, maybe a sub-5 ERA and an even record. But is that better than Gibson? I doubt it.

[johnnydakota]

Either of our predictions are pretty likely. The SPers will be a whole lot better this coming year. If the BP holds steady teams will have a bunch of trouble scoring runs off us in 2014.

 

I'll go a step further. If Arcia does well, Hicks puts it together, Plouffe figures it out and is steady, Dozier is the "new Dozier" and Pinto hits like we all hope he can over a season....

 

The Twins will win the Central. Write it down, I said it first.

 

That is what is wrong with this team,HOPE

We hope that Pelfrey becomes a better pitcher then his career stats

We hope Hughes does better away from New York (im 1 of those )

We hope Willingham bounces back

We hope that florimon can hit .240 and keep up solid D

We hope Kubel Bounces back to Arizona type play

We hope that Worley rebounds to his 1st year caliber play

We hope that Plouffe can play average defense and remember how to hit

We hope Hicks, We hope Mastroianni , We hope Presley, we hope we hope we hope we hope, about the only certains are Perkins and Joe

[B Richard]

I'm no apologist when it comes to pitchers with poor senses of pace, but some of you guys are really overdoing it here. According to fangraphs, the league average for pace among starters was 21.9 seconds last year. Pelfrey came in at 24.6 in 2013 (coincidentally he has averaged a pace of 21.7 over his career). That makes 2.7 additional seconds between pitches we have to sit through. Let's say that the big Pelf averages 100 pitches per start next season. That adds 270 seconds to each start- less than 5 minutes.

 

There seems to be a lot of outrage here over an extra five minutes per start. One of my favorite aspects of baseball is that it is not dependent upon a clock, but rather the players themselves. I do think it's silly sometimes when guys take too long between pitches, but I have a difficult time understanding the animosity towards a man who adds less than 5 extra minutes to your experience at the ballpark.

 

I'd have an easier time understanding outrage towards his actual pitching performance, which has the potential to add much more than 5 minutes to each start.

[Kirbek]

He was nowhere near our best pitcher. Deduno had a 3.60 era. This move is mind boggling. 5-13, 5.19 era, 1.50 whip should not earn a roster spot, let alone a raise and an additional year. For all this tj talk, he had a 5.00 era in august and september. Between deduno, gibson, and meyer we have guys making no money with more upside.

And my last point, war for pitchers makes no sense. Let me provide two examples. Ervin santana has a 2.4 war and had a 3.24 era. Pelfrey's was 2.1 even though he gave up two additional er for every nine innings? the concept of wins above replacement would imply that a pitcher that allows more runs than the league average (like pelfrey) would have a negative war. pelfreys era was roughly the same as the twins starters last year and we ranked 29 out of 30.

 

Looking at his starts in July and August, he was pretty solid. He tailed off in September (not surprising after quick TJ recovery). Re-evaluate his season in more detail, and you may see why they wanted him back.

[Joe A. Preusser]

That is what is wrong with this team,HOPE

We hope that Pelfrey becomes a better pitcher then his career stats

We hope Hughes does better away from New York (im 1 of those )

We hope Willingham bounces back

We hope that florimon can hit .240 and keep up solid D

We hope Kubel Bounces back to Arizona type play

We hope that Worley rebounds to his 1st year caliber play

We hope that Plouffe can play average defense and remember how to hit

We hope Hicks, We hope Mastroianni , We hope Presley, we hope we hope we hope we hope, about the only certains are Perkins and Joe

 

Don't confuse blind hope with astute observational conclusions.

 

Hughes pitching better with TF as his home park is an astute observational conclusion.

 

Kubel bouncing back to hit .300 and 30HR is blind hope.

 

The rest seem somewhere in between.

 

As long as a team doesn't make moves solely on the basis of blind hope, I'm happy to take a few fliers on past results if they are cheap. I like having hope.

[Badsmerf]

As I said, he should be better if you just factor in the second year after TJ surgery. On the other hand, he went from 20 to 152 innings in one season, with TJ in between. So he'll probably have a longish dead arm period. I think he'll be better when his arm is lively, maybe a sub-5 ERA and an even record. But is that better than Gibson? I doubt it.

He doesn't have to be better than Gibson. The question should be if that is better than Deduno, in which case my answer would be probably.

[Jham]

If we are hoping for bounce backs or career years, motivation moves. And nothing motivates like money and competition. Pavano, Baker, Blackburn, Mays (injury) were never as good after signing multi-year deals as they were trying to earn one. I think this is why the Twins rarely sign pitchers long term and tend to cycle tons of mid-level prospects through the major league organization. We trust the competition factor to raise otherwise average or below average players up a level. Case in point: Little Nick Punto. Hand him a job and he'll hit .200. Try to get rid of him, and he'll put up a career year.

 

We now have a rotation full of guys with little to pitch for unless we are in the playoff hunt. I still like the moves because we are acquiring talent i.e. trade-bait.

[tobi0040]

Looking at his starts in July and August, he was pretty solid. He tailed off in September (not surprising after quick TJ recovery). Re-evaluate his season in more detail, and you may see why they wanted him back.

 

Time will tell I guess, but I believe he is not in our top 5 right now, and certainly won't be when we bring up Meyer in June. So we have $11M locked up in a guy that should not be in the rotation. But of course he will be in the rotation because of his salary.

 

The money could have been better spent elsewhere, like Corey Hart for example. He could have been a good DH for us.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Time will tell I guess, but I believe he is not in our top 5 right now, and certainly won't be when we bring up Meyer in June. So we have $11M locked up in a guy that should not be in the rotation. But of course he will be in the rotation because of his salary.

 

The money could have been better spent elsewhere, like Corey Hart for example. He could have been a good DH for us.

 

It doesn't make much sense to complain that the Twins are picking up too much mediocre pitching and then advocate the acquisition of a mediocre DH when the team is absolutely bursting at the seams with mediocre OF/DH types (Arcia, Willingham, Doumit, Plouffe, Parmelee, etc).

[jokin]

It doesn't make much sense to complain that the Twins are picking up too much mediocre pitching and then advocate the acquisition of a mediocre DH when the team is absolutely bursting at the seams with mediocre OF/DH types (Arcia, Willingham, Doumit, Plouffe, Parmelee, etc).

 

Hart OPS+/HRs/SLG

2010 130/31/.525

2011 133/26/.510

2012 120/30/.507

 

Hart hasn't been a DH for the Brewers, mostly 1B/RF. Great clubhouse guy, a lot of Thome at a younger age in him, he signed with the M's for $6M + $7M in potential incentive bonuses, surely he's a few shades above mediocre.

 

Obviously, you make a great point and the stumbling block for making this one work, there is a huge backlog of guys that would have to have been moved, and timing of trades hasn't been one of Terry's strong suits in recent times. And Corey Hart's health is still in question, but that doesn't change the fact that the Twins do need another bat with some punch in the order- for heaven's sake, Brian Dozier is (somehow) the current top HR power guy in this lineup! They went into 2013 with obviously too much fingers-crossed Hope that AA rookies could lead off and guys with injury histories and up-and-down play could reliably sustain their 2012 production, they even ill-advisedly extended one of them, when it was clear that a trade or trades was the more prudent move.

[howieramone1406390264]

 

 

 

Obviously, you make a great point and the stumbling block for making this one work, there is a huge backlog of guys that would have to have been moved, and timing of trades hasn't been one of Terry's strong suits in recent times. And Corey Hart's health is still in question, but that doesn't change the fact that the Twins do need another bat with some punch in the order- for heaven's sake, Brian Dozier is (somehow) the current top HR power guy in this lineup! They went into 2013 with obviously too much fingers-crossed Hope that AA rookies could lead off and guys with injury histories and up-and-down play could reliably sustain their 2012 production, they even ill-advisedly extended one of them, when it was clear that a trade or trades was the more prudent move.

 

Ryan's trades have been solid and timed well. Extending Doumit was a solid move for anyone not blessed with fan board hindsight.

[Otto von Ballpark]

While Pelfrey's surgery and recovery does seem like it logically impacted his 2013 performance, he has also posted multiple similar seasons with the Mets. They may just be part of the package with him. Hopefully he can still pull out another league average season.

[jokin]

Ryan's trades have been solid and timed well. Extending Doumit was a solid move for anyone not blessed with fan board hindsight.

 

Wha...? This is satire, right?...Right out of 1 Twins Way? And how "solid" are those well-timed trades he hasn't made? Given that you participate on this board, is your "fan board hindsight" better than everyone else's? I would remind you that there were many of us at the time of the extension that questioned why you would extend a 30+ poor defensive catcher on a rebuilding team....and look to trade those who had just had career years.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Obviously, you make a great point and the stumbling block for making this one work, there is a huge backlog of guys that would have to have been moved, and timing of trades hasn't been one of Terry's strong suits in recent times. And Corey Hart's health is still in question, but that doesn't change the fact that the Twins do need another bat with some punch in the order- for heaven's sake, Brian Dozier is (somehow) the current top HR power guy in this lineup! They went into 2013 with obviously too much fingers-crossed Hope that AA rookies could lead off and guys with injury histories and up-and-down play could reliably sustain their 2012 production, they even ill-advisedly extended one of them, when it was clear that a trade or trades was the more prudent move.

 

I agree that the offense needs help... Which is why I think pursuing Drew is a good idea, provided he can be had on a three year deal.

 

The problem with the Twins' offense right now is that they're loaded with DH/OF types with more on the way. There just aren't many positions where one of two things don't happen:

 

1. They load an already-full position with more warm bodies

 

2. They buy into a position that ends up blocking a prospect within 12-18 months

 

IMO, SS is the one position that doesn't run into one of the above problems.

[jokin]

I agree that the offense needs help... Which is why I think pursuing Drew is a good idea, provided he can be had on a three year deal.

 

The problem with the Twins' offense right now is that they're loaded with DH/OF types with more on the way. There just aren't many positions where one of two things don't happen:

 

1. They load an already-full position with more warm bodies

 

2. They buy into a position that ends up blocking a prospect within 12-18 months

 

IMO, SS is the one position that doesn't run into one of the above problems.

 

 

I'm all in favor of adding Drew, with the proviso that health incentives are built into the contract. And adding 1 year deals or expiring contract trades at other positions that won't block prospects.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Wha...? This is satire, right?...Right out of 1 Twins Way? And how "solid" are those well-timed trades he hasn't made? Given that you participate on this board, is your "fan board hindsight" better than everyone else's? I would remind you that there were many of us at the time of the extension that questioned why you would extend a 30+ poor defensive catcher on a rebuilding team....and look to trade those who had just had career years.

 

I don't remember there being a ton of complaints when Doumit and his .800+ OPS was extended for 2 years at a cheap price. It wasn't a bad deal at all given the cost, production, and a complete lack of talent at C in the upper levels. But I'm sure some complained, so I'll give you the benefit of the doubt. The question I have to ask is what exactly do any of us know about the trades that weren't made? We can speculate on that all we want, but it's nothing but speculation. Not sure you or I have a right to judge the FO on that IMO.

[oldguy10]

I hardly think Arcia can be considered mediocre just yet, he still has much promise, whether he delivers or not in the long run is of course problematical.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I hardly think Arcia can be considered mediocre just yet, he still has much promise, whether he delivers or not in the long run is of course problematical.

 

Arcia *should* be better than mediocre at some point in his career but in 2014, there's a good chance he'll be mediocre.

 

Arcia and Wilingham are the only guys who have the potential to be above average in the OF/DH slots in 2014.

[jokin]

I don't remember there being a ton of complaints when Doumit and his .800+ OPS was extended for 2 years at a cheap price. It wasn't a bad deal at all given the cost, production, and a complete lack of talent at C in the upper levels. But I'm sure some complained, so I'll give you the benefit of the doubt. The question I have to ask is what exactly do any of us know about the trades that weren't made? We can speculate on that all we want, but it's nothing but speculation. Not sure you or I have a right to judge the FO on that IMO.

 

If you don't remember, you were just looking at the wrong information. Again, Doumit was fine for his initial contract, he staunched the bleeding in the wake of 2011, but a clearly rebuilding club should have flipped a 30+ player not a part of the competitive future, during, or coming off of a decent year (they at least were in line for a Type B draft pick as compensation- I think 2012 was the last year for Type B comp). Speaking of that, there are pages after pages in Twins Daily and similar sites before TD on wondering why the Twins sell high so infrequently- this isn't secret decoder ring information, we as fans do have the right to question moves and whether or not the Twins are in "Rebuilding Plan A", "Pretty Darn Competitive Team Plan A", or "Rebuilding Plan B with Real MLB Starters", after both of the Plan A's were an unmitigated disaster, etc.

[howieramone1406390264]

If you don't remember, you were just looking at the wrong information. Again, Doumit was fine for his initial contract, he staunched the bleeding in the wake of 2011, but a clearly rebuilding club should have flipped a 30+ player not a part of the competitive future, during, or coming off of a decent year (they at least were in line for a Type B draft pick as compensation- I think 2012 was the last year for Type B comp). Speaking of that, there are pages after pages in Twins Daily and similar sites before TD on wondering why the Twins sell high so infrequently- this isn't secret decoder ring information, we as fans do have the right to question moves and whether or not the Twins are in "Rebuilding Plan A", "Pretty Darn Competitive Team Plan A", or "Rebuilding Plan B with Real MLB Starters", after both of the Plan A's were an unmitigated disaster, etc.

 

When Doumit was extended in June of 2012, Ryan had been back for 7 months and few if any knew the Twins were entering into a full blown rebuild. IIRC John Bonnes wrote an article in August of 2013, which directly addressed the subject of the Twins rebuilding for the first time on this board. The article generated some fairly diverse views.

 

 

Edit: John's article was called Judging a Rebuild dated 8-27-13

[johnnydakota]

When Doumit was extended in June of 2012, Ryan had been back for 7 months and few if any knew the Twins were entering into a full blown rebuild. IIRC John Bonnes wrote an article in August of 2013, which directly addressed the subject of the Twins rebuilding for the first time on this board. The article generated some fairly diverse views.

 

Just because some one from this site hadnt wrote an article about rebuilding , doesnt mean most knew we were not in contention and some thing was up in letting free agents walk away,for picks, if that didnt mean we were rebuilding , not sure what does.Maybe you were confused ,because Terry didnt rebuild much Just 1 starter and 1 reliever were added during his rebuilding ....

[jokin]

When Doumit was extended in June of 2012, Ryan had been back for 7 months and few if any knew the Twins were entering into a full blown rebuild. IIRC John Bonnes wrote an article in August of 2013, which directly addressed the subject of the Twins rebuilding for the first time on this board. The article generated some fairly diverse views.

 

Bonnes first time addrssing the rebuild? UHhh...I. Don't. Think. So.

 

Again, this may be hindsight to someone who was evidently buried in the catacombs at One Twins Way before he became a contributor at Twins Daily, but the general consensus on TD in the 2011-12 offseason was that the Twins were, in fact rebuilding, but were either, not in a good position PR wise to admit it, or, simply just very hesitant in acknowledging the fact that the whole new-stadium Plan A at Target Field had fully blown up in their faces in 2011.... in conclusion, it's fair to characterize the feeling as, TR keeping his cards close to his vest, throw a few waste-of-effort bones to the season ticket holders, do the quick and easier fix on the bullpen (he succeeded at that task) and emphasize the farm system a little more surreptitiously.

[Badsmerf]

Bonnes.... breaking new ground... pfff (just kidding Boones (not really, but kinda (I really am though in case I might be moderated))).

[tobi0040]

Hart OPS+/HRs/SLG

2010 130/31/.525

2011 133/26/.510

2012 120/30/.507

 

Hart hasn't been a DH for the Brewers, mostly 1B/RF. Great clubhouse guy, a lot of Thome at a younger age in him, he signed with the M's for $6M + $7M in potential incentive bonuses, surely he's a few shades above mediocre.

 

Obviously, you make a great point and the stumbling block for making this one work, there is a huge backlog of guys that would have to have been moved, and timing of trades hasn't been one of Terry's strong suits in recent times. And Corey Hart's health is still in question, but that doesn't change the fact that the Twins do need another bat with some punch in the order- for heaven's sake, Brian Dozier is (somehow) the current top HR power guy in this lineup! They went into 2013 with obviously too much fingers-crossed Hope that AA rookies could lead off and guys with injury histories and up-and-down play could reliably sustain their 2012 production, they even ill-advisedly extended one of them, when it was clear that a trade or trades was the more prudent move.

 

Thank you for posting Hart's numbers to put some context to my point. Corey Hart has been much better than our DH options (arcia and josh in rf and lf). Hart will stay healthy as the dh. I am done with parmalee and collabello. if Doumit is the backup lf, rf, dh, and allows us not to use a roster spot for a third catcher we will be in a good position.Further, it is certainly possible willingham or Hart if we would have signed him could be movemid-season. so I don't think we are as deep as we think. At some point we need to add offense and when you go around the Diamond we have holes at ss, c, and dh. The best bet for an upgrade is at DH. Clearly dozier and mauer are there. the corner outfields are ok and we are holding 3b and cf for certain top prospects

[Brock Beauchamp]

Thank you for posting Hart's numbers to put some context to my point. Corey Hart has been much better than our DH options (arcia and josh in rf and lf). Hart will stay healthy as the dh. I am done with parmalee and collabello. if Doumit is the backup lf, rf, dh, and allows us not to use a roster spot for a third catcher we will be in a good position.Further, it is certainly possible willingham or Hart if we would have signed him could be movemid-season. so I don't think we are as deep as we think. At some point we need to add offense and when you go around the Diamond we have holes at ss, c, and dh. The best bet for an upgrade is at DH. Clearly dozier and mauer are there. the corner outfields are ok and we are holding 3b and cf for certain top prospects

 

Except that you're ignoring how both Willingham and Arcia are butchers in the field.

 

120 OPS+ DHs aren't terribly hard to find. For a DH, that's not a terribly good stat line, either. Decent, but not overwhelming.

 

The Twins could make more gains by finding a corner OF who won't embarrass himself with the bat but can play a good OF... A Parmelee/Plouffe platoon might be a better player than Corey Hart once you factor in defense gained by Parmelee/Plouffe and defense "lost" by Willingham moving to DH.

 

Or the team could go outside the organization. My point is that Corey Hart just pollutes an already-full DH position and forces some really bad players to stand in the OF, letting fly balls drop left and right. You can't look at Hart's pretty good OPS+ and ignore that he's making your defense considerably worse by pushing Willingham back into the field.

[Mike Sixel]

Ryan's trades have been solid and timed well. Extending Doumit was a solid move for anyone not blessed with fan board hindsight.

 

fangpraphs predicted doumit would be awful, with foresight. So did others.