Homer Bailey

[ericchri]

Seems to me that if you go get him, you try like mad to get him to sign an extension. If he doesn't, he's gone at the deadline for some return prospect (yeah, it might not be quite what you gave up, but assuming he's not terrible it would be something) to make room for Meyer/May if they're not up already. Not sure the Twins operate that way, but that's what I'd like to see them do.

[Shane Wahl]

Kohl Stewart and Trevor Plouffe for Homer Bailey?

[ThePuck]

Kohl Stewart and Trevor Plouffe for Homer Bailey?

 

Stewart can't be traded yet, but hypothetically...I hope not. I'm pretty high on Stewart.

[Shane Wahl]

Kohl Stewart won't be starting with the Twins until 2017 at the earliest. Maybe he gets a shot for the Reds at the end of 2015, likely 2016.

 

I would trade Stewart, Plouffe, and Deduno right now for Bailey, with the expectation that the Twins are going to pay Bailey.

[Shane Wahl]

Stewart can't be traded yet, but hypothetically...I hope not. I'm pretty high on Stewart.

 

Oops.

[Shane Wahl]

My thinking was that Bailey is going to be damn good for the next four years. And Stewart won't even be up yet.

 

Oh well. Plouffe, Deduno, and Santana?

[ThePuck]

My thinking was that Bailey is going to be damn good for the next four years. And Stewart won't even be up yet.

 

Oh well. Plouffe, Deduno, and Santana?

 

I get the reasoning, but for me...I'm not that big of a fan of Bailey's. Not that I wouldn't want him, not that he hasn't become good, but I wouldn't give up our shiny new #4 overall pick for him even if we could.

 

Your revised offer I'd be fine with, but not sure the Reds would do it.

[Shane Wahl]

I get the reasoning, but for me...I'm not that big of a fan of Bailey's. Not that I wouldn't want him, not that he hasn't become good, but I wouldn't give up our shiny new #4 overall pick for him even if we could.

 

Your revised offer I'd be fine with, but not sure the Reds would do it.

 

Yeah, I actually read the article and realized that a 5th starter included wouldn't matter. What about Santana, Harrison, and Plouffe?

[ThePuck]

Yeah, I actually read the article and realized that a 5th starter included wouldn't matter. What about Santana, Harrison, and Plouffe?

 

To be 100% honest, I don't know too much about the Reds' needs to give a real answer. I'm sure there are others in here who can give a more informed opinion on the subject, so I'll have to defer to them. Sorry :-)

[BG816]

This is totally anecdotal, but trading any talent of value for Bailey would be a mistake. How Bailey has a few no-hitters is stunning to me. I lived in Cincinnati for 3 years coinciding with the rise of the Reds as a power team and the call up of Bailey. It felt like every time I went to a Reds game over those years Homer was the starter, and I remember on at least 2 occasions he gave up more than a few home runs and just a ton of hits. I don't know what it is about him, but he's shown me he is true to his first name.

 

(I'd make a terrible GM)

[Shane Wahl]

This is totally anecdotal, but trading any talent of value for Bailey would be a mistake. How Bailey has a few no-hitters is stunning to me. I lived in Cincinnati for 3 years coinciding with the rise of the Reds as a power team and the call up of Bailey. It felt like every time I went to a Reds game over those years Homer was the starter, and I remember on at least 2 occasions he gave up more than a few home runs and just a ton of hits. I don't know what it is about him, but he's shown me he is true to his first name.

 

(I'd make a terrible GM)

 

Hahaha. No, I know since he was another player (along with, I am not kidding, Phil Hughes, Alex Gordon, Delmon Young, and Chris Young (player)) that I was all kung-ho and proud about drafting in my fantasy league back in that era. Oh my GODDDDDD.

 

But that ship has been righted these past two seasons. I am not strongly serious about it, but wondering what it would take.

[BG816]

Hahaha. No, I know since he was another player (along with, I am not kidding, Phil Hughes, Alex Gordon, Delmon Young, and Chris Young (player)) that I was all kung-ho and proud about drafting in my fantasy league back in that era. Oh my GODDDDDD.

 

But that ship has been righted these past two seasons. I am not strongly serious about it, but wondering what it would take.

 

Yeah, I know he's gotten better. And I don't hold grudges, but I guess this is one that just won't go away. He was so hyped when he came up and just crapped his pants in front of me far too many times. Who knows, maybe it was me.

 

And I love it when the inevitable bidding war starts every year for Delmon in my league's auction draft. I just sit back and watch the incompetence draft the incompetent. The irony last year is that the guy you got him is Jewish.

[Thrylos]

My thinking was that Bailey is going to be damn good for the next four years. And Stewart won't even be up yet.

 

Oh well. Plouffe, Deduno, and Santana?

 

That would not bring much

 

And I have no idea why the Reds would want prospects. Last time I checked, the Reds were a contending team that just fired their manager for not making it to the post-season. The Twins do not have much spare MLB level talent. Will they be willing to trade Perkins (maybe even straight up?) Will something like Dozier, Fien and/or Burton interest the Reds? Or maybe Willingham and/or Doumit in the trade?

 

I just do not see a match here...

[Shane Wahl]

That would not bring much

 

And I have no idea why the Reds would want prospects. Last time I checked, the Reds were a contending team that just fired their manager for not making it to the post-season. The Twins do not have much spare MLB level talent. Will they be willing to trade Perkins (maybe even straight up?) Will something like Dozier, Fien and/or Burton interest the Reds? Or maybe Willingham and/or Doumit in the trade?

 

I just do not see a match here...

 

Well, Fien or the return of Burton could spice it up. The Reds could be interested in prospects though, Plouffe and Deduno wouldn't qualify there. Certainly, Willingham and Doumit . . . uh, a team in the NL would have to be rather dumb to trade for those two . . .

[gunnarthor]

I like the idea but I agree that the Reds would want more "win now" pieces than prospects. Ryan tried to trade for Cueto a few years ago but couldn't get it done so at least we know Ryan will look at the Reds.

 

If they do want to move Chapman to the pen, I think Perkins would be a real nice piece for them and, if he was healthy, Willingham would be what they need in LF. Unfortunately, they have Phillips signed long term at second so, unless they somehow moved him (unlikely) Dozier isn't a fit. I guess wait and see who their new manager is, how he wants to use Chapman and then try and make some sort of package around Perkins. I'd do Perkins, Willingham and a solid prospect but I don't think Willingham has the value right now to push a trade.

[Oxtung]

I think there are some interesting possibilities for trades with the Reds, though most would be creative, big trades.

 

Starting simple first though, if the Twins just want to move prospects Meyer, Rosario or Gibson would have to front the package. Assuming the Twins don't want to move pitching that leaves Rosario but Reds have Brandon Phillips signed through 2017.

 

If the Reds, and more specifically their new manager, are looking to move Chapman back into the rotation then Perkins seems like a nice fit. As an organization we know they value closers and they are cash strapped so his cheap salary would be a plus. I'm not sure a single season of Bailey moves the needle for the Twins though.

 

What if the Twins included Rosario, in addition to Perkins, and the Reds sent back Bailey and their top pitching prospect Robert Stephenson. He is extremely highly regarded, he will probably be ranked ahead of Rosario and potentially ahead of Meyer. The Twins end of that deal is probably a little light so some other player(s) would have to be added to even things out but the Reds could have their pick of our next tier as far as I'm concerned. I would even offer up Berrios if that is what it took.

 

So what do people think of a Perkins + Rosario + one or two of Kepler/Santana/Polanco/Harrison/Berrios for Homer Bailey and Robert Stephenson? As other have said if Bailey is unwilling to sign long term we could still look to move him at the deadline or extend him a qualifying offer but the Twins would also be able to come out of this with another long term building block and this one has front of the rotation potential. I know I would feel much better with 3 potential #1 starters instead of the 2 we currently have. Of course this is all predicated upon the Reds moving Chapman to the rotation which is anything but a given.

 

The other option is to try and get a third team involved if the Reds aren't interested in Rosario (presumably because of Brandon Phillips). Bailey to the Twins, Rosario + others to [insert team here], [insert team here] players/prospects back to the Reds.

[TheLeviathan]

Why would anyone, much less Cincy, want Plouffe? Even as a throw-in?

[markos]

Why would anyone, much less Cincy, want Plouffe? Even as a throw-in?

 

Some smart team is going to do with Plouffe exactly what Baltimore did with Danny Valencia. They will snatch him up someday for next to nothing, give him 200 at bats a season against lefties, watch him hit .275/.350/.500 for a couple years, and look like geniuses.

[kab21]

It's extremely unlikely that he's signing an extension so it would be silly to trade for him. Just wait for him to hit FA a year from now and spend the big bucks. Despite everyone's complaints about payroll there is a reason that it is dropping and it's so they can spend on some legitimately good players instead of filling a bunch of holes with marginal older players.

[nicksaviking]

People are talking about moving Perkins, Rosario and other top prospects. Why is this even a consideration for a 1 year rental? As Kab above said, if we want him, why not wait until he hits free agency as he appears dead set on? Then you get to keep the prospects and the Twins will hopefully be another year removed from this quagmire.

 

I'm not giving up anything of value for one year of a guy who can't realistically get this club to the playoffs singlehandedly.

[ThePuck]

 

That's an assumption. We don't know they'll do that.

 

That's similar to saying we can't sign guys to 4-6 contracts because we need to save money for the prospects we have coming up who will be due big contracts...an argument that's been flown around. First, we don't know how many, if any, will be worthy of big contracts to begin with...but there's an assumption quite a few will (another ties to the assumption that so many of our prospects will be so good we'll be competitors by 2015)...and Mauer's contract will coming off the books in that time frame as.

 

So I'm not sold on the idea that for sure we'll be spending money on legitimately good players down the road...not ones we get in FA at least.

[kab21]

It would take them 5 years to come close to 100M payroll again if they were only signing their own guys. You can have your opinion but I really don't think they will wait that long. Will it happen this offseason? Maybe, maybe not.

[ThePuck]

It would take them 5 years to come close to 100M payroll again if they were only signing their own guys. You can have your opinion but I really don't think they will wait that long. Will it happen this offseason? Maybe, maybe not.

 

I don't think we'll only sign our own guys, my doubt comes from the belief they will sign 'legitimately good players instead of filling a bunch of holes with marginal older players.'. I don't think they'll spend the money it needs to get those kind of players in FA.

 

And yeah, I think it'll be awhile before they reach 100M again. The guys they are counting on to take us to the promised land won't be due any kind of real raise for a few years, seeing as how most of them aren't in the majors yet...and then Mauer's contract comes off the books..

[ashbury]

do with Plouffe exactly what Baltimore did with Danny Valencia. They will snatch him up someday for next to nothing

 

Yes, that looks like the right price for that kind of talent. If the team you're trying to acquire said talent from asks too much in return, you set your sights on a Randy Ruiz type as an equivalent alternative. Righties who can handle lefty pitching but not do much else are there to be found, on the minor-league free agent pile, if a GM wants to look.

 

Still hoping Plouffe does something to raise his value to the world, of course, and while he's still a Twin.

[ericchri]

People are talking about moving Perkins, Rosario and other top prospects. Why is this even a consideration for a 1 year rental? As Kab above said, if we want him, why not wait until he hits free agency as he appears dead set on? Then you get to keep the prospects and the Twins will hopefully be another year removed from this quagmire.

 

I'm not giving up anything of value for one year of a guy who can't realistically get this club to the playoffs singlehandedly.

 

I probably agree with you for the most part, I wouldn't want to straight up trade Rosario for 1 year of Bailey, knowing that Bailey was gone after the year for certain and I had nothing to show for the trade but that 1 year of him pitching. But it's along the lines of not knowing what will happen next year and taking a chance things will break right. Cleveland was good this year because essentially their entire starting pitching staff all improved simultaneously. There's no way you can expect that to happen, but apparently it can.

 

The question comes down to how much do you really have to give up for that 1 year. Would it be similar to what KC did to get Ervin Santana for the year, maybe a little more? I'm not good at guessing that type of thing. But if you trade for him now, you get a chance to convince him this is the kind of place he'd want to sign for longer. If you wait til the offseason you're just bidding against everyone without anything to show in favor of Minnesota (arguments about how our team is lousy right now is kinda beside the point I'm trying for at the moment). If you still don't have any success getting him to want to sign a long-term contract and the team is lousy again, trade him at the deadline to get something back. Different piece than what you traded to get him, but still something.

 

If we come back next season and Hicks has learned how to hit, Gibson knows how to pitch in the majors, and Plouffe, Willingham, and Arcia start bombing home runs, maybe having Bailey there to front the rotation makes them competitive. It's a long-shot of course and I certainly don't expect it to happen, but weird things happen sometimes, and if you can find the right deal for Bailey it's worth trying.

[TheLeviathan]

Some smart team is going to do with Plouffe exactly what Baltimore did with Danny Valencia. They will snatch him up someday for next to nothing, give him 200 at bats a season against lefties, watch him hit .275/.350/.500 for a couple years, and look like geniuses.

 

It's the next to nothing part that makes this different. We are suggesting landing a very solid young starter. Far from nothing.

[Shane Wahl]

I am operating on the assumption that the Twins would work out a deal to keep him for 4 years.

 

Making a trade to the Reds without giving up top prospects would be fantastic in my view. They don't want to pay the salary and they are looking to help out their offense for 2014.

[Nick Nelson]

The more I think about it, the more I love the idea of pursuing Bailey, if indeed he's made available. He has everything the Twins should be looking for: youth, durability, front-of-rotation ability. A contract extension would be a prerequisite of any trade, and I'm sure it'd be costly, but the Twins can afford it. As Doogie noted, there's a tie within the organization -- Wayne Krivsky drafted Bailey when he was GM of the Reds.

[DomeDog]

To re-but the previous Bailey anecdote: I watched, with my own two eyes, Homer Bailey throw a no hitter using only his fastball. The man can pitch. We need that.

 

Would he want to sign an extension with the 2013 Twins? No. Would he want to sign an extension to pitch 3 more years with the Twins? Probably. With two of the top 3 prospects in the game and more slated to arrive in those three years, not a bad place to stick around. That's where I'd want be.

 

Interesting that Scherzer and Price have been thrown around as potentially available too, recently.

[markos]

It's the next to nothing part that makes this different. We are suggesting landing a very solid young starter. Far from nothing.

 

I was referring to teams not wanting Plouffe even as a throw in. I agree that he isn't going headline any trade for Bailey, but I feel like he would be much more attractive than a Pedro Hernandez or a Eduardo Escobar as the 3rd or 4th piece in a trade.