BG816

Yeah, I know he's gotten better. And I don't hold grudges, but I guess this is one that just won't go away. He was so hyped when he came up and just crapped his pants in front of me far too many times. Who knows, maybe it was me. And I love it when the inevitable bidding war starts every year for Delmon in my league's auction draft. I just sit back and watch the incompetence draft the incompetent. The irony last year is that the guy you got him is Jewish.

Again, good point. But don't you think PR has taken a hit recently with the decreased payroll, the decreased talent on the field, and the decrease in wins in the standings? The county is still paying for that stadium. I would hope ownership doesn't think it's okay to continue down this path, and I know the fan-base doesn't think it's okay. So I think the risk of PR hits IS still the case today, granted less pronounced or obvious.

You make a good point. But I guess what I was trying to get across is that the willingness to spend was there. In other organizations, many of those players would have been traded before their raises or would have been allowed to walk. However, I suppose a lot of the spending could have had more to do with the Twins' loyalty to their own players who have come up through their system and flourished.

This is totally anecdotal, but trading any talent of value for Bailey would be a mistake. How Bailey has a few no-hitters is stunning to me. I lived in Cincinnati for 3 years coinciding with the rise of the Reds as a power team and the call up of Bailey. It felt like every time I went to a Reds game over those years Homer was the starter, and I remember on at least 2 occasions he gave up more than a few home runs and just a ton of hits. I don't know what it is about him, but he's shown me he is true to his first name. (I'd make a terrible GM)

A. I'm not so sure ownership should be considered cheap. It's a business and they do what's necessary to make money for the shareholders, whether that means spending or reducing payroll. There is history of ownership spending when they deem it necessary, though that money was spent poorly by a bad GM. When evaluating the Pohlads, compare them to the rest of the league. Besides the Yankees, Dodgers and their ilk, they don't seem any less willing to spend than the rest. B. Regarding Ryan, you have to take everything that comes out of his mouth with a grain of salt. He is not going to tell the press that he's going to spend a certain amount of money or he's going to target a certain player. He's competing with every other team in the league and showing his hand would assure loss. By keeping consistent in his statements (displaying a poker face), he can hide the fact that he may be holding a full house or better. Statements to the press should not hold much weight when determining whether the Twins will make a serious run at Tanaka or any other high end free agent pitcher. Though I'm not discounting Ryan's history of not spending much on pitching, I think circumstances are different here.

I've been a longtime lurker, but after reading about Tanaka, I finally felt I needed to sign up and join the discussion. I think Tanaka is the Twins' top priority this winter, and there are several reasons that have led me to this conclusion. (And as a disclaimer, I don't agree with everything the front office does, and I have been as disappointed as anybody over the past 3 years. But, personally, I don't think me bitching about the negatives would add anything to the conversation, so my posts are going to be of the glass-half-full variety. That does NOT mean I'm an apologist ) 1. Although Ryan is known as a spendthrift, I think there has been strategy involved in him not spending as much as permitted by ownership the past few years. He's not stupid. He knew the Twins would be awful for a few years while rebuilding. Why spend unnecessarily to make a 96-loss team into a 90-loss team? He has had his eyes on the future and stashing the unspent cash for a certain posting fee. Again, total speculation. 2. The Twins have probably been following Tanaka and other Japanese players for years. Tanaka didn't just come out of the blue. We know senior staff has made the trip over the Pacific to see Tanaka firsthand. Did they do that for Darvish or any other Japanese pitcher in the past? This could be evidence of a high level of seriousness on their part. 3. Payroll has been cut by attrition and trades, and the Twins are not going to risk further alienating fans by not spending the money we know they have on free agents. Despite fielding an awful team, attendance was impressive this past year (I live in Cleveland, so averaging over 30,000 per game to watch the Twins amazes me compared to what the Indians drew with a playoff team.) Income, therefore, has not dropped by much, so there's no business reason to cut payroll. 4. The prospects are being brought up in waves, allowing for future financial certainty. Obviously, for the first 3 years, each will be inexpensive. But, again, the money has to go somewhere. A $15m/yr. deal would be affordable and during those first few years there will be extra money to spend on other needs as well. If Tanaka is signed to a 5-year deal, there will be at least 2 seasons before a $15m salary would potentially become problematic. After that 2 year buffer, the problematic nature of the deal would only gradually rise over the final 3 years of the deal. I think the worst case scenario is that the Twins are stuck with a bad contract for 2 years at most, more likely for only 1 year, and if Tanaka performs as advertised, $15m/yr. is a bargain. Then, there is a year of arbitration, or more likely, an extension, and the terms and impact of that deal are impossible to know today, and will depend on the business health at that time. However, in 5 years, all signs point to the Twins being pretty damn good, and good baseball equals nice profits. 5. Finally, any talk of the Twins having to pay Tanaka more to come to Minnesota is nonsense. If the Twins post the winning bid, Tanaka will have 2 choices: sign with the Twins or go back to Japan and make a lot less in a worse league. There is no doubt he would sign. (Admittedly, I can't remember if anybody has claimed that he wouldn't want to sign with the Twins and would refuse to play for a rebuilding team like I've seen in other threads. So I'm sorry in advance.) Conclusion: I'm an attorney. Viewing this through the eyes of a litigator, Terry Ryan's moves and non-moves, along with the financial health of the team and the need for a top-of-the-rotation pitcher without wanting to give up prospects or draft picks, everything points to the Twins making a very serious run at the best pitcher on the market, and a possible ace for years to come.