Terry Ryans Rules for constructing a low cost, risk averse winner as i see it part I

[Otto von Ballpark]

Looking at yearly ERA+ numbers, looks like our recent max year-to-year swing was about 14 points (adding 14 from 2003 to 2004, subtracting 14 from 2010 to 2011).

 

The Royals just had a 22 point jump, but they were far more aggressive last offseason than the Twins have ever been. The Indians made a 17 point jump, but of course they had suffered an 11 point drop from 2011-2012 due to career-worst performances from Masterson and Jimenez (plus the rotting hulk of Derek Lowe).

[Joe A. Preusser]

I've brought that up many times in here over the last month or so. IMO, part of that is Gardy waiting too long to make the necessary moves, but certainly part of it is on the bullpen as well. It has been talked about, though....but Ryan isn't going to bring it up. Besides Pelfrey and Correia, it's the bullpen and the up the middle defense he wants to emphasis as good.

 

Inherited runners are the fault of the pitcher who put them on base. If I'm a starter and leave with the bases loaded, then I deserve to have a few runs charged against me for it. Getting out of that scenario scott-free is a gift which artificially deflates an ERA. If the Twins BP allowed more IRs to score than other teams, it is mostly because they came in to more situations where there were guys in scoring position. And that's not all on Gardy, it is more on our starters who seemed to be able to handle 5-6 innings of solid work and then quickly implode with little or no notice once the next inning started.

 

And I'm not sure what you meant by your last comment, Correia and the up-the-middle defense WERE good this year. Correia was better than at least one starting pitcher on every single MLB team this year...(Ok, I didn't fact check that one, but it's hard to believe that there was any MLB team with 5 starters under 4.2 ERA.)

[Oxtung]

Inherited runners are the fault of the pitcher who put them on base. If I'm a starter and leave with the bases loaded, then I deserve to have a few runs charged against me for it. Getting out of that scenario scott-free is a gift which artificially deflates an ERA. If the Twins BP allowed more IRs to score than other teams, it is mostly because they came in to more situations where there were guys in scoring position. And that's not all on Gardy, it is more on our starters who seemed to be able to handle 5-6 innings of solid work and then quickly implode with little or no notice once the next inning started.

 

It certainly isn't "all on Gardy" but some of the blame is on his shoulders. It is his job to put the Twins in the best position possible to win games. If folding in the 5th or 6th inning is common for the starting pitchers then he needs to be ready to deal with that either pulling them before it happens or he needs to have a quick hook once they do start to struggle.

 

And I'm not sure what you meant by your last comment, Correia and the up-the-middle defense WERE good this year. Correia was better than at least one starting pitcher on every single MLB team this year...(Ok, I didn't fact check that one, but it's hard to believe that there was any MLB team with 5 starters under 4.2 ERA.)

 

I think he was saying that there are very few "bright" points on the team this season and the bullpen is one of them, like Correia and the middle defense. Ryan isn't going to go out of his way to tear down the BP about the inherited runners scored because they are one of the few things seen as a success this season.

 

As for Correia I didn't look at every team but he was better than only 5 of the 20 starters in the AL Central and none of those played for the Detroit Tigers.

[Joe A. Preusser]

It certainly isn't "all on Gardy" but some of the blame is on his shoulders. It is his job to put the Twins in the best position possible to win games. If folding in the 5th or 6th inning is common for the starting pitchers then he needs to be ready to deal with that either pulling them before it happens or he needs to have a quick hook once they do start to struggle.

 

 

 

I think he was saying that there are very few "bright" points on the team this season and the bullpen is one of them, like Correia and the middle defense. Ryan isn't going to go out of his way to tear down the BP about the inherited runners scored because they are one of the few things seen as a success this season.

 

As for Correia I didn't look at every team but he was better than only 5 of the 20 starters in the AL Central and none of those played for the Detroit Tigers.

 

Of all qualified starting pitchers in MLB with at least 100 innings pitched, Correia's ERA checked in at 102. 102 divided by 30 teams = ~3.3. So on average, Correia was better than 1.7 of the starting pitchers for each team. I admit, that is a big generalization, and I apparently misunderstood Puck's intention in the first place, so I'm happy to let it drop.

 

As far as Gardy needing a quicker hook, I kind of go back and forth. My first, gut instinct tells me that if our SP isn't going 6+ innings consistently he isn't doing his job. By not catering to that weakness, Gardy is in a way holding them accountable for their performance. On the other hand, I agree there were a bunch of instances last year where we all just knew that our SP was doomed when he came back out for another inning. But at the end of the season, we all saw our pen was just gassed and much less effective. Maybe it was doomed from the start because we didn't add enough starting pitching who could be effective and protect the pen for the whole year?

 

As far as inherited runners go, I still put most of the blame on the SP. I'd be interested to see some stats on the number of IRs we handed off to the pen and how many scored, as well as how we stacked up %wise against other teams. I also wonder what the inning ERA is for those innings where pitchers enter the game with RISP.

[Joe A. Preusser]

Additionally, I think there's zero chance Buxton is on the table and close to zero chance for Sano as well, regardless of what Ryan says.

 

It would have to be one of the best hauls in the history of MLB, something akin to the Herscheal Walker trade the Vikes made with the Cowboys. Otherwise there seems to be way too much hype built up around both of those guys to deal them.

[dgwills]

What if we just abandoned our starting pitchers and had all relievers? We would have to cut down the position players to ten, but that would just take away the opportunity for Gardy to screw up pinch hitting. Double win. You could have the best bullpen arms in the game with all the money you would save.

Technically someone would have to start. We would just draw straws for it. I have to think we could have a better pitching staff that way. At the very least it would be interesting to see.

[Siehbiscuit]

What if we just abandoned our starting pitchers and had all relievers? We would have to cut down the position players to ten, but that would just take away the opportunity for Gardy to screw up pinch hitting. Double win. You could have the best bullpen arms in the game with all the money you would save.

Technically someone would have to start. We would just draw straws for it. I have to think we could have a better pitching staff that way. At the very least it would be interesting to see.

 

I haven't thought about going to that extreme, but have thought about going to a 4 man rotation. Getting Gibson, Correia, Deduno and FA 'X' go 4-5 innings and then they are done. Hopefully, they can get through the order twice and not have to see it a third time. Then guys like Albers, Swarzak, Diamond, Duensing, Pressley and our other numerous AAAA caliber guys can be on a second rotation going the next two innings. This will limit the rotations exposure. The Twins still have three guys: Burton, Fien and Perkins to clean up the last two innings. The key is our starters gotta keep us in the game through at least 4 innings. Still not an easy thing to do with this staff.

[Brandon]

TR built a good bullpen in 2013, no one's disputing that. And he's built good ones before. But you cannot compare bullpens to starters like this. Until they double the roster size to 50, you need both.

 

Verlander 2013 WAR: 4.6 total or .021 WAR/IP *** and this was a "down" season for him!

Twins Bullpen 2013 WAR: ~6.7 total or .012 WAR/IP

 

Notice how one accumulates WAR at almost twice the rate of the others?

 

The current Twins are about as devoid of starting pitching as a major league organization can get. They either need to start using their best "asset" (spending room) to acquire some, or they need to admit they're perfectly happy wasting 5-6 seasons in cheap "rebuild" mode, waiting for future success which might never come.

 

Verlanders 4.6 WAR cost 20 million the Twins bullpen cost half that with 6.7 WAR. we have 2.1 more WAR with an extra 10 million to spend. I just compared their value. and I would rather have the extra WAR even though Verlander is more entertaining.

[ThePuck]

Verlanders 4.6 WAR cost 20 million the Twins bullpen cost half that with 6.7 WAR. we have 2.1 more WAR with an extra 10 million to spend. I just compared their value. and I would rather have the extra WAR even though Verlander is more entertaining.

 

Sorry, that doesn't even make sense. This ONE player is giving you a value that is 2/3 the value of EIGHT players. That's what make him, and pitchers like him, so valuable.

[Guest USAFChief]

Verlanders 4.6 WAR cost 20 million the Twins bullpen cost half that with 6.7 WAR. we have 2.1 more WAR with an extra 10 million to spend. I just compared their value. and I would rather have the extra WAR even though Verlander is more entertaining.

How'd that work out for the Twins?

[old nurse]

The combined WAR for all Twins starters is exceded by every Detroit starter except Porcello who had a 3.2 WAR. That 3.2 WAR as a 5th starter made him by WAR the 36th best pitcher in MLB. As Detroit will attest, you need a good bullpen. A good bullpen doesn't do much for you when there is nothing there to protect.

[ashbury]

Verlanders 4.6 WAR cost 20 million the Twins bullpen cost half that with 6.7 WAR. we have 2.1 more WAR with an extra 10 million to spend. I just compared their value. and I would rather have the extra WAR even though Verlander is more entertaining.

 

Budget for salary is one (soft) constraint. The 25-man active roster limit is another (hard) constraint. WAR/dollar is fine but you can't assemble a 20+ WAR pitching staff, like Detroit did, one Casey Fein (0.4 WAR) at a time - unless you are allowed to use 50 men.

[Alex]

Budget for salary is one (soft) constraint. The 25-man active roster limit is another (hard) constraint. WAR/dollar is fine but you can't assemble a 20+ WAR pitching staff, like Detroit did, one Casey Fein (0.4 WAR) at a time - unless you are allowed to use 50 men.

 

I'd add that innings are also a hard constraint. You have a finite amount of innings to accumulate WAR so if you're counting by WAR you need good pitchers in those innings.

[Brandon]

Seeing as how the Tigers bullpen blew 1 excellent start and put another one of his starts out of reach against Boston in the playoffs I bet the Tigers would like to rethink their bullpen which also goes back to the mean argument I presented with this article. If you have excellent starting and a bad or below average bullpen vs an average rotation and a great bullpen you end up in the same area for team ERA. While the Tigers have the best rotation in the league, they didn't lead the American league in ERA as the Royals did that. When the pitching matches up aggregately then it comes down to inches to who will win the most and for the Twins those inches are found in the other rules I have been posting showing how the Twins gain those inches. There will be another post coming soon.

[Badsmerf]

Seeing as how the Tigers bullpen blew 1 excellent start and put another one of his starts out of reach against Boston in the playoffs I bet the Tigers would like to rethink their bullpen which also goes back to the mean argument I presented with this article. If you have excellent starting and a bad or below average bullpen vs an average rotation and a great bullpen you end up in the same area for team ERA. While the Tigers have the best rotation in the league, they didn't lead the American league in ERA as the Royals did that. When the pitching matches up aggregately then it comes down to inches to who will win the most and for the Twins those inches are found in the other rules I have been posting showing how the Twins gain those inches. There will be another post coming soon.

Everyone knew the Tigers bullpen wasn't a strength. They just don't seem to assemble very good bullpens. Boston, however, has done very well with their bullpen. Also, the Tigers didn't lose that series because of their bullpen, they lost it because they scored less than 3 runs in 4 of the 6 games. Hard to win if you can't score.

 

I'm looking forward to your coming posts.

[TheLeviathan]

One could argue the managerial decisions were every bit as liable as the actual bullpen performance. The real downfall was what Smerf alluded to - Boston's starters matched Detroits which negated a huge strength.