Is now the time?

[twinscowboysbulls]

Call me crazy, but wouldn't it be wise(if we are able to actually increase our payroll) to spend some money this off-season in forms of 3 and 4 year contracts for FA? I know that typically we do not give out contracts longer than 2 years, but now is the time to do it if there ever was. We don't have really anyone we want to extend and we are 3-4-5-6 years away from extending some of our big name players,(if they end up being as good as advertised) Buxton, Sano, Meyer. At least if we were able to add a few 10 million dollar players for 3-4 year deals, we would hopefully have a little bit better chance of competing over the next few years until we should be loaded with our prospects. By the time the 3-4 year contract runs out, we are probably looking at adding certain pieces and extending our studs... Seems very logical to me.

[darin617]

I thought this was going to be about contraction.

[amjgt]

There's no reason to sign any meaningful free agents until all of our minor league studs have entered their prime.

 

[sarcasm]

[ThePuck]

“There’s going to be a lot of competition for quality, there always is. But we’ll be in the mix,” Ryan said of the free-agent market for pitchers. “We pursued a bunch of free-agent pitchers last year, and there was a number of them we didn’t get, for whatever reason.”

 

Twins' search for starts never ends | Star Tribune

[nicksaviking]

“There’s going to be a lot of competition for quality, there always is. But we’ll be in the mix,” Ryan said of the free-agent market for pitchers. “We pursued a bunch of free-agent pitchers last year, and there was a number of them we didn’t get, for whatever reason.”

 

Twins' search for starts never ends | Star Tribune

 

I hope the reasons are at least known to Ryan. You kind of need to know why if you want to remedy the problem.

[Oldgoat_MN]

I think we will get an indication of whether the Twins are serious about making a difference when we find out who won the bid to negotiate with Tanaka.

[Rosterman]

The majority of the Twins current player base will still be under team control through 2016-27 at the least, that means all making $1 million or less in salary.

 

So, in terms of looking at players that you drafted this year, and as the winter progresses and you get a modest handle on needs and availability of players in the draft for 2014, you can spot the 2-3-4 free agents that you might like to sign for 2-3-4 year deals with a possible option year worked in.

 

When you sign long-term free agents, you also have the luxury of flipping them for more prospects, especially if you have a 3-4 year contract to work with.

 

It's a no brainer if the money is there in the budget. You will be free of any future salary for currently signed free agents about the time your young crop of players start to hit arbitration. The Twins can actually add free agents each of the next three years to supplement weaknesses in the prospect lineup, and probably still be at the same (pro-rated) budget come 2018.

 

And who knows what Mauer will be worth then or sign for, you might actually save some bucks on that front.

 

The only Twins that will be around in 2015 and 2016 are Mauer and Perkins for sure. I would imagine Dozier and Hicks and Arcia and Tonkin will be in the mix. Pretty much everyone else will have turned over. Dozier will probably be tradebait by then. Hicks will be signed longterm or on his way out.

[Badsmerf]

I hope the reasons are at least known to Ryan. You kind of need to know why if you want to remedy the problem.

 

Whatever reason: Having to dish out a decent contract.

[S.]

“We pursued a bunch of free-agent pitchers last year, and there was a number of them we didn’t get, for whatever reason.”

http://cdn2.cagepotato.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Al-bundy-ed-oneill-animated-gif-6.gif

[gunnarthor]

Call me crazy, but wouldn't it be wise(if we are able to actually increase our payroll) to spend some money this off-season in forms of 3 and 4 year contracts for FA? I know that typically we do not give out contracts longer than 2 years, but now is the time to do it if there ever was. We don't have really anyone we want to extend and we are 3-4-5-6 years away from extending some of our big name players,(if they end up being as good as advertised) Buxton, Sano, Meyer. At least if we were able to add a few 10 million dollar players for 3-4 year deals, we would hopefully have a little bit better chance of competing over the next few years until we should be loaded with our prospects. By the time the 3-4 year contract runs out, we are probably looking at adding certain pieces and extending our studs... Seems very logical to me.

 

Sounds good but it's never quite that simple. It's a pretty weak SP market - probably worse than last year. I think Phil Hughes would pitch well at TF and the Twins have been rumored to be interested in him. I've read that he wants a 1 yr deal to build up value and I've read that he wants a 4 yr deal. So who knows. The best FA are listed here. Ervin Santana is #7 for instance. He can probably be gotten on a 3 yr deal but probably around 12m/yr or higher, I'd guess. Burnett and Kuroko aren't coming here. Choo will probably want 100m and has Boras as an agent. Same with Ellsbury.

 

Their are some neat names - Santana is signing somewhere on a one year deal to make good. Lincecum is a FA but I have no idea what happens with him. Josh Johnson will probably get a 1 yr deal.

 

I don't think Ryan is going to spend much in FA - shocking - and a guy like Hughes might be the best we get. Right now the Twins have a sorta crowded outfield as Hicks will have to get a spot in the next few years (although maybe not out of ST) and Arcia has the other corner. Buxton could be up faster than expected since he'll be at AA to start next season. So I think the OF will be kinda weak next year as we wait for guys to grow into their roles. They could add a one year corner bat easily enough until Hicks shows he's ready. I think Willingham DH's most of the time next year. 3b is reserved for Sano and Florimon/Dozier did ok up the middle. They'll need a new 1B/DH/C guy to go with Mauer. Pinto will have some of those at bats. McCann would be an interesting get but obviously he'll be too expensive.

[Winston Smith]

"Right now the Twins have a sorta crowded outfield....."

 

I would disagree. Today we don't have one quality outfielder on the team. Willy can not play defense, if he is hitting 30+ hr and 100+ rbi you can live with it. But not today. Arcia is a DH in the making and my hope is he comes close to Ortiz light as a DH as he also is not a good enough defender. The rest, Clete, Elvis, Herman, Parm, Doumit,......are all sub major league level outfielders, imo. Hick remains unknown and it's still a ways off for other minor league help.

[adjacent]

With a couple of good free agent pitchers I think the team will improve a lot. I am not talking contender, but at least "not embarrassing". A rotation of Santana, Hughes, Correia, and Gibson, Deduno, Worley, Diamond, etc. competing for the last two spots should be decent. Not top of the line, but decent. And it is very doable. The position players, with Sano and Rosario coming up during the year, should be OK. Hopefully Willingham and Doumit could have better years than 2013, not as good as 2012, but not 2013 disaster either.

I think the Tigers are strong now, but will be getting old. The one I actually fear is KC. Their players will be maturing, and they still will have good pitching. Our team will have their really good players starting in 2015, but 2014 has to be better than this.

[ThePuck]

With a couple of good free agent pitchers I think the team will improve a lot. I am not talking contender, but at least "not embarrassing". A rotation of Santana, Hughes, Correia, and Gibson, Deduno, Worley, Diamond, etc. competing for the last two spots should be decent. Not top of the line, but decent. And it is very doable. The position players, with Sano and Rosario coming up during the year, should be OK. Hopefully Willingham and Doumit could have better years than 2013, not as good as 2012, but not 2013 disaster either.

I think the Tigers are strong now, but will be getting old. The one I actually fear is KC. Their players will be maturing, and they still will have good pitching. Our team will have their really good players starting in 2015, but 2014 has to be better than this.

 

I agree about KC...and they have more good pitching on the way...and one just showed up, Ventura...Zimmer is just around the corner...

[TheMind07]

Maybe I'm different but I just do not see the point in signing some mediocre players just to "compete." We did that in the 2000's and "competing" got pretty old. I'm of the opinion that if they're not going to legitimately compete for a WS are are 1 or 2 pieces away from being a legit contender than what is the point of signing said free agents? Why not just suffer through the bad and continue to add elite talent for a few more years if we're not going to legitimately contend? I know examples like the Royals and Pirates can be examined, that being said, I don't (maybe wishful thinking) think that will be the case with the Twins (i.e. suffering for 20+ seasons).

[LaBombo]

I think the Tigers are strong now, but will be getting old. The one I actually fear is KC. Their players will be maturing, and they still will have good pitching. Our team will have their really good players starting in 2015, but 2014 has to be better than this.

Agree about KC, but not Detroit. Nobody in their rotation is over 30, and of their core position players, only Hunter is over 30.

[LaBombo]

Maybe I'm different but I just do not see the point in signing some mediocre players just to "compete." We did that in the 2000's and "competing" got pretty old. I'm of the opinion that if they're not going to legitimately compete for a WS are are 1 or 2 pieces away from being a legit contender than what is the point of signing said free agents? Why not just suffer through the bad and continue to add elite talent for a few more years if we're not going to legitimately contend? I know examples like the Royals and Pirates can be examined, that being said, I don't (maybe wishful thinking) think that will be the case with the Twins (i.e. suffering for 20+ seasons).

Two of the best pitching prospects in the organization were acquired by trading away useful, non-All Star players. Had the team cashed in Willingham in the offseason as well, that number would likely be three.

[Thrylos]

Sounds good but it's never quite that simple. It's a pretty weak SP market - probably worse than last year.

 

I hear this, but I just don't get it.

 

Tim Lincecum

Matt Garza

Dan Haren

Ricky Nolasco

Josh Johnson

Ervin Santana

 

and possibly (they have options) :

 

James Shields

Ubaldo Jimenez

Jon Lester

 

Plus the oldies, but all of these guys are relatively young.

 

You can build two very good rotations with those guys, unlike last season.

 

 

I think that the Twins should target 29 year old Minnesotan Josh Jonshon and either 27 year old Phil Hughes or 29 year old Tim Lincicum, add 32 year old Dan Haren for a 2+1 year contract and call it a day Add Meyer and Gibson or Correia and Worley until they are ready, and you got a real rotation, but it will cost them about $20M plus what they will save from Morneau and Blackburn

 

 

If they sign 35 and 36 year olds with 4 K/9 that will not happen.

[gunnarthor]

I hear this, but I just don't get it.

 

Tim Lincecum

Matt Garza

Dan Haren

Ricky Nolasco

Josh Johnson

Ervin Santana

 

They're names but Johnson, Lincecum and Haren were pretty bad this year. They could have bounce back seasons and some one will try but a 2yr deal for Haren right now would be reckless. Santana had a bounce back year this year. Garza's probably the biggest pitching name on the market and he's no Greinke or Sanchez.

[gunnarthor]

"Right now the Twins have a sorta crowded outfield....."

 

I would disagree. Today we don't have one quality outfielder on the team. Willy can not play defense, if he is hitting 30+ hr and 100+ rbi you can live with it. But not today. Arcia is a DH in the making and my hope is he comes close to Ortiz light as a DH as he also is not a good enough defender. The rest, Clete, Elvis, Herman, Parm, Doumit,......are all sub major league level outfielders, imo. Hick remains unknown and it's still a ways off for other minor league help.

 

I see what you're saying and that's why I said "sorta." Going forward, 3 of the 4 OF/DH spots will (in a perfect world) go to Buxton, Hicks and Arcia. Arcia and Hicks have already made the majors. Buxton (in a perfect world) could make it next summer since he's starting in AA. So, until they know that Hicks isn't a part of the future or Arcia is only a DH or Buxton won't advance beyond AA, they can't really clog up those positions (and Willingham will be one of them next year). A one year deal for someone would be ok but a 3 yr deal for someone like Mike Morse? I'm not sure I'd like that. And guys like Choo, Ellsbury or Cory Hart will be out of the Twins plans.

[DAM DC Twins Fans]

They're names but Johnson, Lincecum and Haren were pretty bad this year. They could have bounce back seasons and some one will try but a 2yr deal for Haren right now would be reckless. Santana had a bounce back year this year. Garza's probably the biggest pitching name on the market and he's no Greinke or Sanchez.

 

Living in DC area--I had to listen to complaints about Haren all year from Nats fans including my son. He is a disaster. At best, I would sign him to a minor league contract with a spring training invite. He is Pelfry level bad. Lincecom has had 3 bad years in a row...maybe Johnson or Erwin Santana but not long-term contracts.

 

I agree that this is a weak free agent SP class. Signing any one of these guys might (but probably wont) get us to 70 wins. Why bother.

[Willihammer]

I'd like to see the Twins ripoff the Pirates formula. Sign a defensive-oriented pitch framer to catch, then sign or trade for SPs whose ERAs are out of whack from their xFIPs.

 

Among the FAs whose ERA/xFIPs in 2013 were out of whack:

 

[TABLE=width: 500]

[TABLE=width: 449]

Name

Age

IP

ERA

xFIP

ERA-xFIP

Edinson Volquez

[TD=align: right]29

[TD=align: right]165.1[/TD]

[TD=align: right]5.77[/TD]

[TD=align: right]4.07[/TD]

[TD=align: right]1.7[/TD]

Roberto Hernandez

[TD=align: right]32[/TD]

[TD=align: right]151[/TD]

[TD=align: right]4.89[/TD]

[TD=align: right]3.56[/TD]

[TD=align: right]1.33[/TD]

Dan Haren

[TD=align: right]32[/TD]

[TD=align: right]162.2[/TD]

[TD=align: right]4.87[/TD]

[TD=align: right]3.68[/TD]

[TD=align: right]1.19[/TD]

Aaron Harang

[TD=align: right]35[/TD]

[TD=align: right]137.1[/TD]

[TD=align: right]5.57[/TD]

[TD=align: right]4.43[/TD]

[TD=align: right]1.14[/TD]

Joe Saunders

[TD=align: right]32[/TD]

[TD=align: right]183[/TD]

[TD=align: right]5.26[/TD]

[TD=align: right]4.23[/TD]

[TD=align: right]1.03[/TD]

Tim Lincecum

[TD=align: right]29[/TD]

[TD=align: right]190.2[/TD]

[TD=align: right]4.44[/TD]

[TD=align: right]3.56[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0.88[/TD]

Scott Kazmir

[TD=align: right]29[/TD]

[TD=align: right]152[/TD]

[TD=align: right]4.14[/TD]

[TD=align: right]3.43[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0.71[/TD]

Phil Hughes

[TD=align: right]27[/TD]

[TD=align: right]143.2[/TD]

[TD=align: right]5.07[/TD]

[TD=align: right]4.37[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0.7[/TD]

A.J. Burnett

[TD=align: right]36[/TD]

[TD=align: right]183[/TD]

[TD=align: right]3.39[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2.92[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0.47[/TD]

Paul Maholm

[TD=align: right]31[/TD]

[TD=align: right]146[/TD]

[TD=align: right]4.44[/TD]

[TD=align: right]3.97[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0.47[/TD]

Tim Hudson

[TD=align: right]37[/TD]

[TD=align: right]131.1[/TD]

[TD=align: right]3.97[/TD]

[TD=align: right]3.56[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0.41[/TD]

Matt Garza

[TD=align: right]29[/TD]

[TD=align: right]150[/TD]

[TD=align: right]3.9[/TD]

[TD=align: right]3.71[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0.19[/TD]

[/TABLE]

[/TD]

[/TD]

[TD]

[/TABLE]

 

Plenty of talent in that group IMO

[LaBombo]

They're names but Johnson, Lincecum and Haren were pretty bad this year. They could have bounce back seasons and some one will try but a 2yr deal for Haren right now would be reckless.

All of them posted xFIPs below 3.7, or about three quarters of a run better than the average of the rotation the Twins cobbled together. And Lincecum has more innings pitched than any Twins starter. There's a pretty good chance those three will be better again next year than anything the Twins have now.

 

And it's hard to see how a two year deal for one of those guys would be reckless, with a ton of money coming off the books and the Ryan not even spending to budget before it does.

[gunnarthor]

I'd like to see the Twins ripoff the Pirates formula. Sign a defensive-oriented pitch framer to catch, then sign or trade for SPs whose ERAs are out of whack from their xFIPs.

 

Among the FAs whose ERA/xFIPs in 2013 were out of whack:

 

[TABLE=width: 500]

[TABLE=width: 449]

Name

Age

IP

ERA

xFIP

ERA-xFIP

Edinson Volquez

[TD=align: right]29

[TD=align: right]165.1[/TD]

[TD=align: right]5.77[/TD]

[TD=align: right]4.07[/TD]

[TD=align: right]1.7[/TD]

Roberto Hernandez

[TD=align: right]32[/TD]

[TD=align: right]151[/TD]

[TD=align: right]4.89[/TD]

[TD=align: right]3.56[/TD]

[TD=align: right]1.33[/TD]

Dan Haren

[TD=align: right]32[/TD]

[TD=align: right]162.2[/TD]

[TD=align: right]4.87[/TD]

[TD=align: right]3.68[/TD]

[TD=align: right]1.19[/TD]

Aaron Harang

[TD=align: right]35[/TD]

[TD=align: right]137.1[/TD]

[TD=align: right]5.57[/TD]

[TD=align: right]4.43[/TD]

[TD=align: right]1.14[/TD]

Joe Saunders

[TD=align: right]32[/TD]

[TD=align: right]183[/TD]

[TD=align: right]5.26[/TD]

[TD=align: right]4.23[/TD]

[TD=align: right]1.03[/TD]

Tim Lincecum

[TD=align: right]29[/TD]

[TD=align: right]190.2[/TD]

[TD=align: right]4.44[/TD]

[TD=align: right]3.56[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0.88[/TD]

Scott Kazmir

[TD=align: right]29[/TD]

[TD=align: right]152[/TD]

[TD=align: right]4.14[/TD]

[TD=align: right]3.43[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0.71[/TD]

Phil Hughes

[TD=align: right]27[/TD]

[TD=align: right]143.2[/TD]

[TD=align: right]5.07[/TD]

[TD=align: right]4.37[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0.7[/TD]

A.J. Burnett

[TD=align: right]36[/TD]

[TD=align: right]183[/TD]

[TD=align: right]3.39[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2.92[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0.47[/TD]

Paul Maholm

[TD=align: right]31[/TD]

[TD=align: right]146[/TD]

[TD=align: right]4.44[/TD]

[TD=align: right]3.97[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0.47[/TD]

Tim Hudson

[TD=align: right]37[/TD]

[TD=align: right]131.1[/TD]

[TD=align: right]3.97[/TD]

[TD=align: right]3.56[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0.41[/TD]

Matt Garza

[TD=align: right]29[/TD]

[TD=align: right]150[/TD]

[TD=align: right]3.9[/TD]

[TD=align: right]3.71[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0.19[/TD]

[/TABLE]

[/TD]

[/TD]

[TD]

[/TABLE]

 

Plenty of talent in that group IMO

 

You can add Pelfrey to that group!

[Willihammer]

You can add Pelfrey to that group!

 

Sure, if you're ok with guys who posted greater than 4.5 xFIPs. I cutoff the list at 4.5 and 20 starts, thinking (hoping) we might shoot a little higher than that this offseason.

[gunnarthor]

All of them posted xFIPs below 3.7, or about three quarters of a run better than the average of the rotation the Twins cobbled together. And Lincecum has more innings pitched than any Twins starter. There's a pretty good chance those three will be better again next year than anything the Twins have now.

 

And it's hard to see how a two year deal for one of those guys would be reckless, with a ton of money coming off the books and the Ryan not even spending to budget before it does.

 

If you trust xfip. bWAR all had them with negative numbers but I believe that uses RA instead of fip, like fWAR. -shrug- And sure, currently a two year deal won't hurt the Twins even if it's all flushed down the drain (doesn't mean you should do it).

 

If the Twins take a chance on Lincecum, I'd probably be excited b/c of his name. And Haren's been someone I wished the Twins had targeted for years. So if we do something like that (or bring back Santana) I certainly won't complain. I think there's risk but there was risk with Pelfrey and Harden this year. I was trying to point out that the FA SP wasn't great but it does have some potential.

 

(I'm leery of Johnson b/c of his injury history).

[gunnarthor]

Sure, if you're ok with guys who posted greater than 4.5 xFIPs. I cutoff the list at 4.5 and 20 starts, thinking (hoping) we might shoot a little higher than that this offseason.

 

I don't think xFIP is all that relevant for TF pitchers, though, is it? Might as well just use fip.

[Willihammer]

I don't think xFIP is all that relevant for TF pitchers, though, is it? Might as well just use fip.

 

Maybe, yeah. I'd just as soon acquire guys reasonably expected to succeed on the road too.

[gil4]

We did that in the 2000's and "competing" got pretty old.

 

I rather enjoyed the 2000's. This "not competing" thing got old a whole lot faster. It's hard to predict when a couple of guys are going to have big years and your pitchers are going to stay healthy. When that happens I'd rather not have Clete Thomas and Pedro Florimon running out there every day to screw the whole thing up.

[TheMind07]

Two of the best pitching prospects in the organization were acquired by trading away useful, non-All Star players. Had the team cashed in Willingham in the offseason as well, that number would likely be three.

 

Oh I absolutely agree. I want them to trade all of the old and let the young guys play a la the Houston Route. I don't think the fans want to watch these older journeyman play anymore (I know I don't). It's frustrating that the Team fails to cash in on players when their value is the highest. Albeit we don't know exactly what the offers are, it would be nice to get anything, if even just salary relief.

[TheMind07]

I rather enjoyed the 2000's. This "not competing" thing got old a whole lot faster. It's hard to predict when a couple of guys are going to have big years and your pitchers are going to stay healthy. When that happens I'd rather not have Clete Thomas and Pedro Florimon running out there every day to screw the whole thing up.

 

Sure the regular seasons were fun, but then the postseason would come and it was just embarrassing. it got old just being satisfied with winning the division then just knowing we'd get swept in the first round. Sure there are memories we'll never forget and those teams brought Twins Baseball back, however I want to contend for WS championships and outside of the 06' Team (even then Boof Bonser was our Game 2 starter) was deep enough to do any damage in the postseason. Sure it was a lot more fun than watching these teams the last 3 years, but in my mind this is paving the way for future success. Might be wishful thinking.